On the Optimal Initial Inner-Core Size for Tropical Cyclone Intensification: An Idealized Numerical Study

Recent observational and numerical studies have revealed the dependence of the intensification rate on the inner-core size of tropical cyclones(TCs). In this study, with the initial inner-core size(i.e., the radius of maximum wind—RMW)varied from 20–180 km in idealized simulations using two different numerical models, we found a nonmonotonic dependence of the lifetime maximum intensification rate(LMIR) on the inner-core size. Namely, there is an optimal innercore size for the LMIR of a TC. Tangential wind budget analysis shows that, compared to large TCs, small TCs have large inward flux of absolute vorticity due to large absolute vorticity inside the RMW. However, small TCs also suffer from strong lateral diffusion across the eyewall, which partly offsets the positive contribution from large inward flux of absolute vorticity. These two competing processes ultimately lead to the TC with an intermediate initial inner-core size having the largest LMIR. Results from sensitivity experiments show that the optimal size varies in the range of 40–120 km and increases with higher sea surface temperature, lower latitude, larger horizontal mixing length, and weaker initial TC intensity. The 40–120 km RMW corresponds to the inner-core size most commonly found for intensifying TCs in observations, suggesting the natural selection of initial TC size for intensification. This study highlights the importance of accurate representation of TC inner-core size to TC intensity forecasts by numerical weather prediction models.

A 28-Year Climatological Analysis of Size Parameters for Northwestern Pacific Tropical Cyclones

A 28-year best track dataset containing size parameters that include the radii of the 15.4 m s^-1 winds （R15） and the 25.7 m s^-1 winds （R26） of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the Northwestern Pacific, the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature （ERSST） dataset are employed in this study. The climatology of size parameters for the tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific from 1977 to 2004 is investigated in terms of the spatial and temporal distributions. The results show that the major activity of TCs in the Northwestern Pacific is from July to October. A majority of TCs lie over the ocean west of 150°E, and a few TCs can intensify to the Saffir-Simpson （S-S） categories 4, 5. Both R15 and R26 tend to increase as the tropical cyclones intensify. The values of R15 and R26 are larger for intense TCs in the Northwestern Pacific than in the North Atlantic generally. Both R15 and R26 peak in October, and before and after October, R15 and R26 decrease, which is different from the case in the North Atlantic. The smaller R15s and R26s occur in a large range over the Northwestern Pacific, while the larger R15s and R26s mainly lie in the eastern ocean from Taiwan Island to the Philippine Islands where many tropical cyclones develop in intense systems. The tropical cyclones with size parameters of R15 or R26 on average take a longer time to intensify than to weaken, and the weak tropical cyclones have faster weakening rates than intensification rates. From 1977 to 2004, the annual mean values of R15 increase basically with year; during the 28-year period, the value of R15 increases by 52.7 kin, but R26 does not change with year obviously.

Sensitivity of the Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Size to Microphysics Schemes

The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone （TC） size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model （WRF）. Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes-Ferrier （FER）, WRF Single-Moment 5-class （WSM5） and WRF Single-Moment 6-class （WSM6）-are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size （the inner-core size, especially）. In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes （as in WSM6） may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.

Effect of grain size on high-temperature stress relaxation behavior of fine-grained TC4 titanium alloy

In order to analyze the effect of grain size on stress relaxation(SR) mechanism,the SR tests of TC4 alloy with three kinds of grain size were performed in a temperature range of 650-750℃.A modified cubic delay function was used to establish SR model for each grain size.A simplified algorithm was proposed for calculating the deformation activation energy based on classical Arrhenius equation.The grain size distribution and variation were observed by microstructural methods.The experimental results indicate that smaller grains are earlier to reach the relaxation limit at the same temperature due to lower initial stress and faster relaxation rate.The SR limit at 650℃ reduces with decreasing grain size.While the effect of grain size on SR limit is not evident at 700 and 750℃ since the relaxation is fully completed.With the increase of grain size,the deformation activation energy is improved and SR mechanism at 700℃ changes from grain rotation and grain boundary sliding to dislocation movement and dynamic recovery.

Modulation of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis by Intraseasonal Oscillation of the ITCZ:A Statistical Analysis

The present study investigates modulation of western North Pacific （WNP） tropical cyclone （TC） genesis in relation to different phases of the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） of ITCZ convection during May to October in the period 1979 2008. The phases of the ITCZ ISO were determined based on 30-80-day filtered OLR anomalies averaged over the region （5°20′N, 120°150′E）. The number of TCs during the active phases was nearly three times more than during the inactive phases. The active （inactive） phases of ISO were characterized by low-level cyclonic （anticyclonic） circulation anomalies, higher （lower） midlevel relative humidity anomalies, and larger （smaller） vertical gradient anomalies of relative vorticity associated with enhanced （weakened） ITCZ convection anomalies. During the active phases, TCs tended to form in the center of the ITCZ region. Barotropic conversion from the low-level mean flow is suggested to be the major energy source for TC formation. The energy conversion mainly depended on the zonal and meridional gradients of the zonal flow during the active phases. However, barotropic conversion weakened greatly during the inactive phases. The relationship between the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity and low-level zonal flow indicates that the sign of the absolute vorticity gradient tends to be reversed during the two phases, whereas the same sign between zonal flow and the absolute vortieity gradient is more easily satisfied in the active phases. Thus, the barotropie instability of low-level zonal flow might be an important mechanism for TC formation over the WNP during the active phases of ISO.

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE INNER CORE SIZE AND OUTER SIZE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THEIR INTENSITY

Based on the Regional Spectral Model(RSM) re-analysis data from Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) with a horizontal resolution of 20 km and a time interval of 6 h,this study works on the outer and inner core size of 2174 samples of tropical cyclones(TCs) occurring over the western North Pacific between 2001 and 2007.Some conclusions have been drawn on the basis of preliminary analysis of the TC inner core size and outer size and their relationship with TC intensity.First,the outer size increase(decrease) helps TCs intensify(weaken).Second,the enlargement(shrinking) of the inner core size helps TCs intensify(weaken) if TCs have a large inner core(with radius of maximum winds larger than 120 km).Contrarily,when TCs have small inner core(with radius of maximum winds smaller than 120 km),the enlargement(shrinking) of the inner core is good for weakening(intensifying) of TCs.

Tropical Cyclones and Polar Lows: Velocity, Size, and Energy Scales, and Relation to the 26℃ Cyclone Origin Criteria

The goal of this paper is to quantitatively formulate some necessary conditions for the development of intense atmospheric vortices. Specifically, these criteria are discussed for tropical cyclones （TC） and polar lows （PL） by using bulk formulas for fluxes of momentum, sensible heating, and latent heating between the ocean and the atmosphere. The velocity scale is used in two forms： （1） as expressed through the buoyancy flux b and the Coriolis parameter Ic for rotating fluids convection, and （2） as expressed with the cube of velocity times the drag coefficient through the formula for total kinetic energy dissipation in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the quasistationary case the dissipation equals the generation of the energy. In both cases the velocity scale can be expressed through temperature and humidity differences between the ocean and the atmosphere in terms of the reduced gravity, and both forms produce quite comparable velocity scales. Using parameters b and Ic, we can form scales of the area and, by adding the mass of a unit air column, a scale of the total kinetic energy as well. These scales nicely explain the much smaller size of a PL, as compared to a TC, and the total kinetic energy of a TC is of the order 1018 - 1019 J. It will be shown that wind of 33 m s^-1 is produced when the total enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere are about 700 W m-2 for a TC and 1700 W m-2 for a PL, in association with the much larger role of the latent heat in the first case and the stricter geostrophic constraints and larger static stability in the second case. This replaces the mystical role of 26℃ as a criterion for TC origin. The buoyancy flux, a product of the reduced gravity and the wind speed, together with the atmospheric static stability, determines the rate of the penetrating convection. It is known from the observations that the formation time for a PL reaching an altitude of 5-6 km can be only a few hours, and a day, or even half a day, for a TC reaching 15-18 km. These two facts allow us to construct curves on the plane of Ts and ΔT = Ts - Ta to determine possibilities for forming an intense vortex. Here, Ta is the atmospheric temperature at the height z = 10 m. A PL should have AT 〉 20℃ in accordance with the observations and nmnerical simulations. The conditions for a TC are not so straightforward but our diagram shows that the temperature difference of a few degrees, or possibly even a fraction of a degree, might be sufficient for TC development for a range of static stabilities and development times.

Reduced Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size to Sea Surface Temperature in a Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Environment

It has been challenging to project the tropical cyclone （TC） intensity, structure and destructive potential changes in a warming climate. Here, we compare the sensitivities of TC intensity, size and destructive potential to sea surface warming with and without a pre-storm atmospheric adjustment to an idealized state of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium （RCE）. Without RCE, we find large responses of TC intensity, size and destructive potential to sea surface temperature （SST） changes, which is in line with some previous studies. However, in an environment under RCE, the TC size is almost insensitive to SST changes, and the sensitivity of intensity is also much reduced to 3% ~C-1-4% ~C-1. Without the pre-storm RCE adjustment, the mean destructive potential measured by the integrated power dissipation increases by about 25% ~C-1 during the mature stage. However, in an environment under RCE, the sensitivity of destructive potential to sea surface warming does not change significantly. Further analyses show that the reduced response of TC intensity and size to sea surface warming under RCE can be explained by the reduced thermodynamic disequilibrium between the air boundary layer and the sea surface due to the RCE adjustment. When conducting regional-scale sea surface warming experiments for TC case studies, without any RCE adjustment the TC response is likely to be unrealistically exaggerated. The TC intensity-temperature sensitivity under RCE is very similar to those found in coupled climate model simulations. This suggests global mean intensity projections under climate change can be understood in terms of a thermodynamic response to temperature with only a minor contribution from any changes in large-scale dynamics.

Reexamination of the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Size and Intensity over the Western North Pacific

This study reexamines the correlation between the size and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific from the perspective of individual TCs, rather than the previous large-sample framework mixing up all TC records.Statistics show that the positive size-intensity correlation based on individual TCs is relatively high. However, this correlation is obscured by mixing large samples. The weakened correlation based on all TC records is primarily due to the diversity in the size change relative to the same intensity change among TCs, which can be quantitatively measured by the linear regression coefficient(RC) of size against intensity. To further explore the factors that cause the variability in RCs that weakens the size-intensity correlation when considering all TC records, the TCs from 2001 to 2020 are classified into two groups according to their RC magnitudes, within which the high-RC TCs have a larger size expansion than the low-RC TCs given the same intensity change. Two key mechanisms responsible for the RC differences are proposed. First, the highRC TCs are generally located at higher latitudes than the low-RC TCs, resulting in higher planetary vorticity and thus higher planetary angular momentum import at low levels. Second, the high-RC TCs are susceptible to stronger environmental vertical wind shear, leading to more prolific outer convection than the low-RC TCs. The positive feedback between outer diabatic heating and boundary layer inflow favors the inward import of absolute angular momentum in the outer region, thereby contributing to a larger size expansion in the high-RC TCs.

On the relationship between tropical cyclone size and environmental helicity in the South China Sea

In this study,the impact of environmental factors on tropical cyclone(TC)outer-core size was investigated for both migrating and local TCs in the South China Sea during the period 2001–2019.Among all the thermodynamic and dynamic factors,the low-level environmental helicity showed the strongest positive correlation with TC outer-core size.Large helicity favors the development and organization of convection in TCs,and the corresponding strong inflow and large angular momentum fluxes into the system is beneficial for the maintenance and enlargement of TC outer-core size.Besides,the asymmetric distribution of helicity may account for the asymmetry of TC outer-core size.Therefore,the environmental helicity,as an integrated dynamic factor,can provide an alternative view on TC outer-core size.

Modulation of the Wind Field Structure of Initial Vortex on the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Size and Intensity

This study investigates the modulation of initial wind field structure on the relationship between the size and intensity of a simulated vortex.A series of idealized experiments are conducted by varying the radius of maximum wind(RMW)and shape parameter of the initial vortices.The size–intensity relationship is quantified by the linear regression coefficient of the azimuthally-averaged gale-force wind radius against the maximum wind during the development stage,reflecting the degree of size expansion at the same intensity increment.The regression coefficient increases with increased RMW and decreased,with the RMW being the primary constraint.The effect of lowering on the elevation of the regression coefficient gradually stands out when the initial RMW is large.Enlarging the RMW leads to a secondary circulation with a horizontally elongated structure,which retards the intensification while promoting size expansion,thus substantially enhancing size expansion as the vortex intensifies.Broadening the wind field outside the RMW by reducing results in abounding convection in the outer region,which promotes size expansion.Based on the axisymmetric tangential wind tendency and Sawyer–Eliassen equations,when the RMW is large,the active convection in the outer region can weaken the radial inflow induced by the eyewall heating in the inner region,thus retarding the intensification by reducing the radial imports of vorticity near the RMW.

Relationship of tropical cyclone size change rate with size and intensity over the western North Pacific

In this study,the relationship of tropical cyclone(TC)size change rate(SCR),within 24 hours,with size,intensity,and intensity change rate(ICR)are explored over the western North Pacific.TC size is defined as the azimuthally averaged radius of gale-force wind of 17 m s−1(R17)based on the Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis data.The majority of SCRs are mainly distributed in the range from−20 to 80 km d−1.The correlation coefficients between SCR and size(SCR-R17),intensity,and ICR(SCR-ICR)are−0.43,−0.12,and 0.25,respectively.The sensitivity of the SCR-R17 and SCR-ICR relationships to size,intensity,and evolution stage are further examined.Results show that the SCR-R17 relationship is more sensitive to variations of size and evolution stage than that of intensity.The relationship of SCR-ICR is largely modulated by the evolution stage.The correlation coefficient of SCR-ICR can increase from 0.25 to 0.40 when only considering the lifetime stages concurrently before and after the lifetime maximum size(LMS)and lifetime maximum intensity.This demonstrates that ICR is a potential factor in predicting SCR during these evolution stages.Besides,the TC size expansion(shrinkage)is more likely to occur for TCs with smaller(larger)size and weaker(stronger)intensity.The complexity of size change during a TC's lifetime can be attributed to the fact that shrinkage or expansion could occur both before and after LMS.

基于融合TC-WREM模型的热带气旋大风半径估算研究

利用2001—2020年美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC)热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)最佳资料数据集和静止气象卫星云图,建立了基于多层感知器神经网络模型(Multi-Layer Perceptron,MLP)和卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Network,CNN)融合的TC大风半径估算模型(TC Wind Radii Estimation Model,TC-WREM)。该模型利用MLP和CNN分别对TC属性数据和卫星云图中与TC大风半径相关联的核心特征进行预提取,最终通过融合TC-WREM模型开展大风半径估算。融合的TC-WREM模型能实现对TC属性数据和卫星云图底层特征的深度客观挖掘,较单独的MLP和CNN模型的估算误差降低7%~24%。以TC近地面8级大风半径(R8)估算为例,针对2021年台风“烟花”的独立样本估算检验显示分象限R8估算平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error,MAE)分别为39、33、40和51 km,均值为41 km,误差中位值约40 km,优于业务估算精度(为大风半径的25%~40%)及西北太平洋和大西洋同类研究估算结果。由于融合TC-WREM模型的输入为易获取的TC属性数据和静止气象卫星云图,因此该模型易于在业务中进行推广,从而可改善国内TC大风半径估算模型缺乏的现状。

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise and Tropical Cyclones in Dongzhaigang Mangroves,China

Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.

TC8-1钛合金大规格棒材的研制

为满足我国航空发动机对高温钛合金的需求,开展了TC8-1钛合金铸锭及其大规格棒材的研制。结果表明,研制的820 mm TC8-1钛合金大型铸锭成分均匀、冶金质量良好。制备的130~200 mm大规格棒材的室温及高温力学性能、热稳定性能、持久性能、蠕变性能和显微组织均符合技术标准要求,能够满足某型号发动机用材需求,填补了国内空白。同时测定了TC8-1钛合金的线膨胀系数、热导率等物理性能数据,为该合金的应用提供参考。

西北太平洋TC高频源地与GMS-SST暖水区及ITCZ的匹配关系

利用GMS高精度遥感海表温度(SST)反演资料、外逸长波辐射(OLR)反演资料和西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)源地及频数数据,分析了GMS-SST、赤道辐合带(ITCZ)、TC源地及频数的时空分布特征。研究发现:TC源地、发生频数以及强度的时空分布和变化均具有趋暖性。GMS-SST大于等于28℃的阈值条件为西北太平洋TC发生和维持的必要条件。并且存在10°N高频收缩轴,其与由GMS-SST大于等于28℃所定义的西北太平洋暖水区,GMS-OLR小于等于240 W.m-2定义的ITCZ的时空分布及变化有很好的相关性,即存在TC高频源地—GMS-SST暖水区—ITCZ三者间的匹配相关。

入口流量及粉尘粒径对双级旋流管分离特性的影响

通过称重和离线采样的方法,研究了双级旋流管入口流量和不同平均粒径粉尘对双级旋流管的总分离效率和粉尘粒径分级效率的影响规律。结果表明:双级旋流管具有较高的总分离效率,在入口流量108 m^(3)/h下对平均粒径47.41μm粉尘的总分离效率可高达99.55%,且对粒径10~30μm范围内颗粒的分离效率最优;第一级旋流管中粉尘颗粒受弹跳、二次夹带的影响,分离时针对粉尘浓度高、平均粒径小的颗粒,可选择较低阻、排尘空间较大的结构设计,同时适当增加抽气率;第二级旋流管中粉尘颗粒受颗粒间作用力(破碎或磨损)的影响,分离时针对粉尘浓度小、平均粒径大的颗粒,可选择较高效的结构设计,并适当减少抽气率;双级旋流管存在对粉尘颗粒分级效率最优的粒径区间,区间内分级效率几乎不随粒径增大而变化。

2014年8月西北太平洋和南海无TC生成之原因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°的月平均再分析资料、NOAA卫星观测的OLR资料和中国气象局台风年鉴资料,对2014年8月西北太平洋和南海无TC生成的原因进行了诊断分析,结果表明:极地冷空气南侵,造成8月上中旬副热带高压偏东偏南,下旬冷空气减弱,副热带高压偏西偏南,致使副热带高压南侧偏东信风与赤道西风的汇合区位置异常偏南;马斯克林高压偏弱,导致索马里急流和东印度洋越赤道气流也弱,印度半岛中低层季风低压或季风槽极其不活跃。澳大利亚高压路径偏东或偏西和势力偏弱,则南海南部越赤道气流亦弱。8月上中旬台风主要源地的海表温度明显偏低,不能酿成低层高温高湿的大气;月内西北太平洋和南海大气的对流活动很弱,层结较稳定、风速垂直切变大,均不利于TC发生发展。在南海到菲律宾以东洋面低层为弱的正涡度区和负散度区,有辐合上升运动,但垂直速度很小,不能满足TC尺度的环流发生和发展;南亚高压和副高南侧东风扰动造成对流层高层为弱上升区,不能形成高空辐散机制,不利于上升气流维持和加强。故此,8月在异常偏南的ITCZ中生成的4个热带扰动最终均未能发展成台风。

MICROPHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTION IN TYPHOON MORAKOT(2009)

Microphysical characteristics of the raindrop size distribution(RSD)in Typhoon Morakot(2009) have been studied through the PARSIVEL disdrometer measurements at one site in Fujian province,China during the passage of the storm from 7 to 10 August 2009.The time evolution of the RSD reveals different segments of the storm.Significant difference was observed in the microphysical characteristics between the outer rainband and the eyewall;the eyewall precipitation had a broader size distribution(a smaller slope) than the outer rainband and eye region.The outer rainband and the eye region produced stratiform rains while the eyewall precipitation was convective or mixed stratiform-convective.The RSD was typically characterized by a single peak distribution and well represented by the gamma distribution.The relations between the shape(μ)and slope(Λ)of the gamma distribution and between the reflectivity(Z)and rainfall rate(R)have been investigated.Based on the NW-Dm relationships,we suggest that the stratiform rain for the outer rainband and the eye region was formed by the melting of graupel or rimed ice particles,which likely originated from the eyewall clouds.

基于改进的累积气旋能量指数评估西北太平洋TC活动与ENSO的关系

采用1977—2008年日本气象厅(JMA)TC最佳路径集资料和美国气候预测中心(CPC)的ENSO资料,设计了一个考虑热带气旋(TC)尺度信息的累积气旋能量指数(SACE),据此分析了西北太平洋TC活动与ENSO之间的关系。结果表明:相比于不考虑尺度效应的ACE,引入TC尺度信息的SACE增加了较大强度、较大尺度TC活动水平的权重,能够更加准确地刻画TC强度及其影响,其与Ni1o指数的相关性进一步增强。SACE能够更好地表征西北太平洋TC活动与ENSO年际变化的关系,其对ENSO位相的依赖性相对于ACE更为敏感,是一个能更好预测ENSO状态的因子。TC强度、生命史、频数以及尺度均对SACE有一定的贡献,但生命史的贡献最大,这一方面说明ENSO主要通过调制TC生命史来影响SACE,另一方面也说明相对于强度、频数和尺度而言,TC生命史更能影响SACE中的ENSO信号。