On Sea Surface Roughness Parameterization and Its Effect on Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity

A new parameterization scheme of sea surface momentum roughness length for all wind regimes, including high winds, under tropical cyclone （TC） conditions is constructed based on measurements from Global Positioning System （GPS） dropsonde. It reproduces the observed regime transition, namely, an increase of the drag coefficient with an increase in wind speed up to 40 m s-1 , followed by a decrease with a further increase in wind speed. The effect of this parameterization on the structure and intensity of TCs is evaluated using a newly developed numerical model, TCM4. The results show that the final intensity is increased by 10.5% （8.9%） in the maximum surface wind speed and by 8.1 hPa （5.9 hPa） in the minimum sea surface pressure drop with （without） dissipative heating. This intensity increase is found to be due mainly to the reduced frictional dissipation in the surface layer and little to do with either the surface enthalpy flux or latent heat release in the eyewall convection. The effect of the new parameterization on the storm structure is found to be insignificant and occurs only in the inner core region with the increase in tangential winds in the eyewall and the increase in temperature anomalies in the eye. This is because the difference in drag coefficient appears only in a small area under the eyewall. Implications of the results are briefly discussed.

THE STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOVS AND ITS APPLICATION IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

The TOVS data are used to study the structure of a number of tropical cyclones for the year 2000. Differences are found to some extent between what is found and classic conceptual models in that (1) the horizontal structure is asymmetric and variable so that the low-value centers at low levels of the geopotential height field (or the high-value centers at high levels) do not necessarily coincide with the high-value centers of the temperature field; (2) the vertical structure is also variable in the allocation of the anomalies of the geopotential height field between low values at low levels and high values at high levels. It is especially noted that the centers of the anomalies are tilting at both high and low levels or the high level is only at the edge of a high-pressure zone. There is not any significant high-value anomalous center in a corresponding location with the tropical cyclone. The structure of tropical cyclone in the TOVS is also used as reference to modify the structure of typhoon BOGUS in the numerical prediction model system of tropical cyclones. It is found that the modified BOGUS performs better in coordinating with the environment and predicting the track of the tropical cyclone. The demonstration is two-fold the structure of the typhoon BOGUS is such that it means much in the track prediction and the use of the TOVS-based tropical cyclone structure really helps in improving it. It provides the foundation for modification and evolution of typhoon BOGUS.

Determination of the Effect of Initial Inner-Core Structure on Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Track on a Beta Plane

The sensitivity of TC intensification and track to the initial inner-core structure on a β plane is investigated using a numerical model. The results show that the vortex with large inner-core winds（CVEX-EXP） experiences an earlier intensification than that with small inner-core winds（CCAVE-EXP）, but they have nearly the same intensification rate after spin-up. In the early stage, the convective cells associated with surface heat flux are mainly confined within the inner-core region in CVEXEXP, whereas the vortex in CCAVE-EXP exhibits a considerably asymmetric structure with most of the convective vortices being initiated to the northeast in the outer-core region due to the β effect. The large inner-core inertial stability in CVEX-EXP can prompt a high efficiency in the conversion from convective heating to kinetic energy. In addition, much stronger straining deformation and PBL imbalance in the inner-core region outside the primary eyewall ensue during the initial development stage in CVEX-EXP than in CCAVE-EXP, which is conducive to the rapid axisymmetrization and early intensification in CVEX-EXP. The TC track in CVEX-EXP sustains a northwestward displacement throughout the integration, whereas the TC in CCAVE-EXP undergoes a northeastward recurvature when the asymmetric structure is dominant. Due to the enhanced asymmetric convection to the northeast of the TC center in CCAVE-EXP, a pair of secondary gyres embedded within the large-scale primary β gyres forms, which modulates the ventilation flow and thus steers the TC to move northeastward.

The effect of the horizontal structure for symmetric tropical cyclones on their movement

In this paper, using Holland's method, the effect of the horizontal structure of tropical cyclones on their motion is investigated. The 'characteristic radius', r0 characterized as the horizontal structure of a tropical cyclone,in which m and p are the parameters of the vortex, has been found by the author. And then it has been shown that there is but one 'characteristic radius' for each cyclone with horizontal structure. Two direct analytic solutions for the uniform and non-uniform basic flows in steady situations are presented with rc Results show that the change in the horizontal structure of the tropical cyclone itself will have obvious effect on the cyclone motion, on both its direction and speed. Therefore it must be considered in the research on the tropical cyclone motion.

A CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

Based on best-track data and JRA-25 reanalysis,a climatology of western North Pacific extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclone (TC) is presented in this paper. It was found that 35% (318 out of 912) of all TCs underwent ET during 1979-2008. The warm-season (June through September) ETs account for 64% of all ET events with the most occurrence in September. The area 120°E-150°E and 20°N-40°N is the most favorable region for ET onsets in western North Pacific. The TCs experiencing ET at latitudes 30°N-40°N have the greatest intensity in contrast to those at other latitude bands. The distribution of ET onset locations shows obviously meridional migration in different seasons. A cyclone phase space (CPS) method was used to analyze the TC evolution during ET. Except for some cases of abnormal ET at relatively high latitudes,typical phase evolution paths-along which TC firstly showed thermal asymmetry and an upper-level cold core and then lost its low-level warm core-can be used to describe the main features of ET processes in western North Pacific. Some seasonal variations of ET evolution paths in CPS were also found at low latitudes south of 15°N,which suggests different ET onset mechanisms there. Further composite analysis concluded that warm-season ETs have generally two types of evolutions,but only one type in cold season (October through next May). The first type of warm-season ETs has less baroclinicity due to long distance between the TC and upper-level mid-latitude system. However,significant interactions between a mid-latitude upper-level trough and TC,which either approaches or is absorbed into the trough,and TC's relations with downstream and upstream upper-level jets,are the fingerprints for both a second type of warm-season ETs and almost all the cold-season ETs. For each type of ETs,detailed structural characteristics as well as precipitation distribution are illustrated by latitude.

Interaction of Typhoon and Mesoscale Vortex

Under two types of initial tropical cyclone structures that are characterized by high and low vorticity zones, four sets of numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the interaction of a tropical cyclone with an adjacent mesoscale vortex (MSV) and its impact on the tropical cyclone intensity change, using a quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model with a horizontal resolution of 0.5 km. The results suggest that the interaction of a tropical cyclone characterized by a high vorticity zonal structure and an MSV would result in an intensification of the cyclone. Its central pressure decreases by more than 14 hPa. In the process of the interaction, the west and middle segments of the high vorticity zone evolve into two peripheral spiral bands of the tropical cyclone, and the merging of the east segment and the inward propagating MSV forms a new vorticity accumulation area, wherein the maximum vorticity is remarkably greater than that in the center of the initial tropical cyclone circulation. It is this process of merging and strengthening that causes a greater pressure decrease in the center of the tropical cyclone. This process is also more complicated than those that have been studied in the past, which indicated that only the inward transfer of vorticity of the MSV can result in the strengthening of the tropical cyclone.

Verification of tropical cyclones(TC)wind structure forecasts from global NWP models and ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)

Forecasting wind structure of tropical cyclone(TC)is vital in assessment of impact due to high winds using Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)model.The usual verification technique on TC wind structure forecasts are based on grid-to-grid comparisons between forecast field and the actual field.However,precision of traditional verification measures is easily affected by small scale errors and thus cannot well discriminate the accuracy or effectiveness of NWP model forecast.In this study,the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE),which has been widely adopted in verifying precipitation fields,is utilized in TC’s wind field verification for the first time.The TC wind field forecast of deterministic NWP model and Ensemble Prediction System(EPS)of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2020 were evaluated.A MODE score of 0.5 is used as a threshold value to represent a skillful(or good)forecast.It is found that the R34(radius of 34 knots)wind field structure forecasts within 72 h are good regardless of DET or EPS.The performance of R50 and R64 is slightly worse but the R50 forecasts within 48 h remain good,with MODE exceeded 0.5.The R64forecast within 48 h are worth for reference as well with MODE of around 0.5.This study states that the TC wind field structure forecast by ECMWF is skillful for TCs over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea.