Application of neural network merging model in dam deformation analysis

In order to improve the prediction accuracy and test the generalization ability of the dam deformation analysis model, the back-propagation（BP） neural network model for dam deformation analysis is studied, and the merging model is built based on the neural network BP algorithm and the traditional statistical model. The three models mentioned above are calculated and analyzed according to the long-term deformation observation data in Chencun Dam. The analytical results show that the average prediction accuracies of the statistical model and the BP neural network model are ~ 0.477 and ＋- 0.390 mm, respectively, while the prediction accuracy of the merging model is ~0. 318 mm, which is improved by 33% and 18% compared to the other two models, respectively. And the merging model has a better generalization ability and broad applicability.

Dam deformation analysis based on BPNN merging models

Hydropower has made a significant contribution to the economic development of Vietnam,thus it is important to monitor the safety of hydropower dams for the good of the country and the people.In this paper,dam horizontal displacement is analyzed and then forecasted using three methods:the multi-regression model,the seasonal integrated auto-regressive moving average(SARIMA)model and the back-propagation neural network(BPNN)merging models.The monitoring data of the Hoa Binh Dam in Vietnam,including horizontal displacement,time,reservoir water level,and air temperature,are used for the experiments.The results indicate that all of these three methods can approximately describe the trend of dam deformation despite their different forecast accuracies.Hence,their short-term forecasts can provide valuable references for the dam safety.

Modeling dam deformation using independent component regression method

In the application of regression analysis method to model dam deformation, the ill-condition problem occurred in coefficient matrix always prevents an accurate modeling mainly due to the multicollinearity of the variables. Independent component regression （ICR） was proposed to model the dam deformation and identify the physical origins of the deformation. Simulation experiment shows that ICR can successfully resolve the problem of ill-condition and produce a reliable deformation model. After that, the method is applied to model the deformation of the Wuqiangxi Dam in Hunan province, China. The result shows that ICR can not only accurately model the deformation of the dam, but also help to identify the physical factors that affect the deformation through the extracted independent components.

Seismic Deformation and Seismic Resistance Analysis of Shapai Roller Compacted Concrete Arch Dam Based on Field Monitoring and Dynamic Finite Element Method

Shapai Roller Compacted Concrete(RCC) Arch Dam is the highest RCC arch dam of the 20th century in the world with a maximum height of 132m,and it is the only concrete arch dam near the epicentre of Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th,2008.The seismic damage to the dam and the resistance of the dam has drawn great attention.This paper analyzed the response and resistance of the dam to the seismic wave using numerical simulations with comparison to the monitored data.The field investigation after the earthquake and analysis of insitu data record showed that there was only little variation in the opening size at the dam and foundation interface,transverse joints and inducing joints before and after the earthquake.The overall stability of the dam abutment resistance body was quite good except a little relaxation was observed.The results of the dynamic finite element method(FEM) showed that the sizes of the openings obtained from the numerical modeling are comparable with the monitored values,and the change of the opening size is in millimeter range.This study revealed that Shapai arch dam exhibited high seismic resistance and overload capacity in the Wenchuan earthquake event.The comparison of the monitored and simulated results showed that the numerical method applied in this paper well simulated the seismic response of the dam.The method could be useful in the future application on the safety evaluation of RCC dams.