Sustainable Intensification and Large-scale Operation of Cultivated Land Use at the Farmers’ Scale:A Case Study of Shandong Province,China

Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges in precisely defining SICLU and constructing comprehensive indicators,which has hindered the exploration of factors influencing LSO within the SICLU framework.To address this gap,we integrated self-efficacy theory into the design of an index framework for evaluating SICLU.We subsequently employed econometric models to analyze the significant factors that impact LSO.Our findings reveal that SICLU can be divided into four key dimensions:intensive management,efficient output,resource conservation,and ecological environment optimization.Furthermore,it is crucial to incorporate belief-based cognitive factors into the index system,as farmers’ understanding of fertilizer and pesticide application significantly influences their willingness to engage in LSO.Moreover,we identify grain market turnover as the most influential factor in promoting LSO,with single-factor contribution rates reaching 70.9% for cultivated land transfer willingness and 62.5% for the total planting areas.Interestingly,unlike irrigation and agricultural machinery inputs,increased labor inputs correspond to larger planting areas for farmers.This trend may be attributed to reduced labor availability because of rural labor migration,whereas the reduction in irrigation and agricultural input is contingent on innovations in production practices and the transfer of cultivated land management rights.Importantly,SICLU dynamically influences LSO,with each index related to SICLU having an optimal range that fosters LSO.These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers,emphasizing farmers as their central focus,with the adjustment of input and output factors as a means to achieve LSO as the ultimate goal.In conclusion,we propose research avenues for further enriching the SICLU framework to ensure that it aligns with the specific characteristics of regional agricultural development.

Spatio-temporal Evaluation of Multi-scale Cultivated Land System Resilience in Black Soil Region from 2000 to 2019:A Case Study of Liaoning Province,Northeast China

It is of great significance to systematically analyze the cultivated land system resilience(CLSR) for the black soil protection and national food security.The CLSR is impacted by planting structure adjustment and cultivated land quality decline,posing major hidden dangers to food security.It is urgent to evaluate the CLSR at multiple spatio-temporal scales.This study took Liaoning Province in the black soil region of Northeast China as an example.Based on the resilience theory,this study constructed the CLSR evaluation system from the input-feedback perspective at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,and used the rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation method(RSR) to analyze the key influencing factors of CLSR in Liaoning Province and its 14 cities from 2000 to 2019.The results showed that:1) the time series changes of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale in Liaoning Province were similar,both showing an increasing trend.2) The CLSR in Liaoning Province presented a spatial pattern of ‘high in the west and low in the east’ at the city-scale.3) There were seven and six main influencing factors of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,respectively.In addition to the net income per capita of rural households,other influencing factors of CLSR were different at the provincial-scale and the city-scale.The feedback factors were dominant at the provincial-scale,and the input factors and feedback factors were dominant at the city-scale.The results could provide a reference for the utilization of black soil and draw on the experience of regional agricultural planning and adjustment.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land use eco-efficiency and its influencing factors in China from 2000 to 2020

Improving cultivated land use eco-efficiency(CLUE)can effectively promote agricultural sustainability,particularly in developing countries where CLUE is generally low.This study used provincial-level data from China to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of CLUE from 2000 to 2020 and identified the influencing factors of CLUE by using a panel Tobit model.In addition,given the undesirable outputs of agricultural production,we incorporated carbon emissions and nonpoint source pollution into the global benchmark-undesirable output-super efficiency-slacks-based measure(GB-US-SBM)model,which combines global benchmark technology,undesirable output,super efficiency,and slacks-based measure.The results indicated that there was an upward trend in CLUE in China from 2000 to 2020,with an increase rate of 2.62%.The temporal evolution of CLUE in China could be classified into three distinct stages:a period of fluctuating decrease(2000-2007),a phase of gradual increase(2008-2014),and a period of rapid growth(2015-2020).The major grain-producing areas(MPAs)had a lower CLUE than their counterparts,namely,non-major grain-production areas(non-MPAs).The spatial agglomeration effect followed a northeast-southwest strip distribution;and the movement path of barycentre revealed a"P"shape,with Luoyang City,Henan Province,as the centre.In terms of influencing factors of CLUE,investment in science and technology played the most vital role in improving CLUE,while irrigation index had the most negative effect.It should be noted that these two influencing factors had different impacts on MPAs and non-MPAs.Therefore,relevant departments should formulate policies to enhance the level of science and technology,improve irrigation condition,and promote sustainable utilization of cultivated land.

Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis of Cultivated Land Quality in Black Soil Region of Northeast China

Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this study,320 counties in the black soil region of Northeast China(BSRNC)represent the research units used to construct the CQE system measuring the soil properties(SP),cultivated land productivity(CLP),ecological environment(EE)and social economy(SE).The total of 19 factors were selected to calculate the integrated fertility index(IFI)and divided into grades.Simultaneously,we used the coupling coordination degree model to comprehensively analyze the spatial pattern of the cultivated land quality(CLQ)in the BSRNC,and use the structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the driving mechanism.The results show the following:1)The CLQ of 262 counties in the BSRNC is in a state of coupling and coordination,and the coupling and coordination degree presents a spatial distribution pattern of‘high in the southwest and northeast,low in the northwest and southeast’.The coordinated development degree of 271 counties is between 0.4 and 0.6,which is in a transitional state between coordination and disorder.2)The CLQ in the BSRNC is generally good,with an average grade of 3.High-quality cultivated land accounts for 58.45%of all counties,middle-and upper-quality cultivated land accounts for 27.05%,and poor-quality cultivated land accounts for 14.49%.3)The SEM analysis shows that the SP,CLP,EE,and SE all influence the CLQ.Among them,the SP has the largest driving force on the CLQ,while the SE has the smallest driving force on it.The results confirm that the main factors affecting the evaluation results are crop productivity level,normalized difference vegetation index,ratio vegetation index,difference vegetation index,and organic carbon content.When implementing protection measures in counties with a low CLQ,considering a balanced coordination of multiple systems and reasonably controlling the quality degradation are important.This study provides the current situation and driving factors of the CLQ in the BSRNC and will play an important role in black soil governance and utilization.

Characteristics and driving factors of abandoned cultivated land in the hilly regions of southern China:A case study in Longnan,Jiangxi Province

The abandonment of cultivated land in southern China was gradually obvious.This research aims to provide a reference for solving the abandonment of cultivated land in hilly regions and promote rural development in China.We examined Longnan county located in the hilly regions of southern China as an example,where abandoned cultivated land is very common.We analyzed its land use data with a field survey to identify the abandoned cultivated land and geospatial characteristics.From the two aspects of social and natural factors,we analyzed the factors driving cultivated land abandonment with the help of Geodetector.The results showed that in 2019,the total area of the abandoned cultivated land in Longnan county was 4,962.35 hm^(2),covering 39.51% of this region.Among the topographic factors,the abandonment rate is positively correlated with elevation and slope gradient,but not with slope direction.Among the land parcel conditions,the abandonment rate is positively correlated with the access to road network and cultivation distance from settlement.At the county level,the abandonment of cultivated land in study area was affected by multiple factors,among which,the direct factor was the reduction in the labor force,such as the decrease of farming laborers and the increase of female population,which made farming unsustainable.Changes in production factors also promoted transformations in farmers’motivation to engage in production,such as the decrease of grain crops and the increase of cash crops,which was the indirect factor affecting cultivated land abandonment.The development of the rural nonagricultural industry affected farmers’enthusiasm,such as the decrease of farming households,which was the fundamental factor leading to cultivated land abandonment in this area.

Spatiotemporal Pattern of Cultivated Land Pressure and Its Influencing Factors in the Huaihai Economic Zone, China

Cultivated land pressure represents a direct reflection of grain security. Existing relevant studies rarely approached the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure or the spatial heterogeneity of its influencing factors from the level of economic zones.Taking the Huaihai Economic Zone(HEZ), China for case analysis, this study investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure in diverse periods from 2000 to 2018 based on a modified cultivated land pressure index and spatial correlation models. On this basis, it explored the influencing factors of the spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure in the late stage of the study using geographical detector as well as multi-scale geographically weighted regression model. The results indicated that: 1) in the study period, the global cultivated land pressure index of the study area decreased gradually, but cultivated land pressure increased locally in a significant way, especially in the central and southern Shandong Province;2) the spatial pattern of cultivated land pressure manifested global clustering features. Hot and secondary-hot spots presented a narrowing and clustering trend, whereas cold and secondary-cold spots manifested a spreading and clustering trend;3) average slope, the proportion of non-grain crops, population urbanization rate, and multiple cropping index have significant effects on the spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure. The former three factors were positively correlated with cultivated land pressure, and the last factor was negatively correlated with cultivated land pressure;and 4) the amount of cultivated land has increased in the central and southern Shandong Province through land consolidation which, nonetheless, failed to improve the grain production. In regards to major grain producing areas similar to the HEZ in China, the authors suggest that great importance should be given to the balance of the quality and quantity of cultivated land, the optimization of agricultural production factors and the rational control of non-grain crops, thus providing a powerful guarantee for grain security in China.

Change of cultivated land area and effect on ecosystem service in black soil region in Northeast China: a case study of Lishu County, Jilin Province

It is of great significance to study the influence of spatial pattern change of cultivated land on eco-system service,including the sustainable utilization and ecological protection in black soil region in Northeast China.Taking Lishu County of Jilin Province as the study area,we quantitatively evaluated soil conservation,habitat quality,carbon storage and grain production service,and analyzed the change of cultivated land and ecosystem service pattern in Lishu County from 1990 to 2020 by using Pearson correlation analysis on the correlation between cultivated land change and ecosystem service.The results show that:(1)The cultivated land area of Lishu County was reduced by 19.67 km2,the characteristics of cultivated land change are signifi-cant;(2)the overall change rate of carbon storage,habitat quality,soil conservation and grain production ser-vice in the study area was 10.82%,-0.09%,4.07%and 1.80%,respectively.They all had significant spatial differentiation features;(3)the change of habitat quality,grain production service showed a significant pos-itive correlation with the change of cultivated land area.The change in soil conservation and carbon storage were negatively related to cultivated land area.In order to promote the rational development and utilization of cultivated land in the research area,it is suggested to scientifically carry out the comprehensive utilization of cultivated land reserve resources such as saline-alkali land,strengthen the management and protection of newly added cultivated land at the same time.The results can provide scientific reference for formulating comprehensive land use planning under ecological security conditions.

Coordination of urbanization and cultivated land resources in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area:A case study of Guangzhou City

Guangzhou,a significant hub city in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,has seen fast social and economic growth as well as steady progress in the degree of urbanization.This research,taking Guangzhou city as an example,aims to provide an understanding of how land resources,urbanization,and spatial planning are coordinated in the study area.It also aims to explore how the coordination degree of land resources,urbanization,and spatial planning changes over time.It seeks to provide effective suggestions for land resource protection,national spatial planning,and urban transformation development to promote the coordinated development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area into a world-class Bay Area.

Performance evaluation of ecological compensation policy for cultivated land in China

The paper evaluates the changes in the ecological environment of cultivated land in the major crop-producing areas major crop-producing areas in the past 20 years by constructing an ecological pollution index;and quantitatively analyzes the effects of the existing policies and their main influencing factors by applying the PSM-DID method based on the frequency of policy enactment.The results are as follows:first,the existing ecological compensation policies for cultivated land are effective but not significant in improving the ecological environment in the major crop-producing areas.The economic development level and grain cultivation area of the major crop-producing areas are significantly and positively correlated with the improvement of the arable land ecological environment,while the level of agricultural infrastructure construction is significantly and negatively correlated with the improvement of the arable land ecological environment.Second,the reason for the ineffectiveness of the current arable ecological land compensation policy in protecting the arable land ecological environment in the main grain-producing regions is that the existing arable ecological land compensation policy in China has its own institutional defects and needs to be further improved.At the same time,the level of environmental pollution of cultivated land in the main grain-producing regions is positively correlated with the level of income from cultivated land and cultivated area.

Spatiotemporal Interaction Between Rural Settlements and Cultivated Land in Karst Mountainous Area,China

Settlements and cultivated land are important production and living spaces in promoting rural revitalization.However,few studies have explored the relationship between rural settlements and cultivated land from spatiotemporal interaction perspective.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal conversion and the interactive mechanism between rural settlements and cultivated land in a karst mountainous area(Qixingguan District of Guizhou Province)with fragile ecological environment in China during 2009–2018.The results showed that the expansion of rural settlements and the loss of cultivated land coexisted in Qixingguan District.Only 2.68%of the new cultivated land was reclaimed from rural settlements,whereas 85.45%of the new rural settlements occupied cultivated land.Six spatial expansion modes of rural settlements when occupying cultivated land were identified.Among these six modes,the area of the edge-expansion&along traffic roads(EA)mode accounted for 52.75%.The occupation by rural settlements made the cultivated land landscape more fragmented.The area ratio index of cultivated land to rural settlements(ARICR)of Qixingguan District averaged 18.75in 2009 and 17.21 in 2018,respectively.The ARICR reduced in all township administrative regions.Cultivated land with suitable slope condition for farming or without rocky desertification was more likely to be occupied by rural settlements.The probability of cultivated land occupied by rural settlements increased with the decrease of the distance to traffic roads,towns,and old rural settlements.The better the economic and social development of the township administrative regions,the more the ARICR decreased,while the richer the agricultural resources and the better the rural development of the township administrative regions,the less the ARICR decreased.The optimal reconstruction path of rural settlements,the comprehensive conservation path of cultivated land and the urban-rural integration development path in karst mountainous area were proposed.The findings would contribute to our understanding of the spatiotemporal interaction between rural settlements and cultivated land,and would provide a theoretical basis for promoting the coordinated development of rural man-land relationship and rural revitalization in karst areas.

Arrangement of High-standard Basic Farmland Construction Based on Village-region Cultivated Land Quality Uniformity

As an important constitute of land consolidation, high-standard basic farmland construction is an important means to protect the quantity, quality and ecological environment of cultivated land. Its target not only lies in the increase of cultivated land quantity, but also the improvement of cultivated land quality, agricultural production conditions and ecosystem environments. In the present study, the quality evaluation method and construction arrangement of cultivated land were explored to facilitate the process of decision-making and implementation for high-standard basic farmland construction(HSBFC) with administrative village as the unit. Taking the land comprehensive improvement project area in Quzhou County, Handan City, Hebei Province as a case study, the whole process of the study comprised of three steps: 1) establishment of the evaluation model of cultivated land quality uniformity based on regional optimum cultivated land quality, and construction of the uniformity evaluation index system from the aspects of soil fertility quality, engineering quality, spatial quality and eco-environment quality, according to the new concept of cultivated land quality; 2) calculation of cultivated land quality uniformity by grading indicators, assigning scores and weighting sums, exploring the local homogenization characteristics of regional cultivated land quality through spatial autocorrelation analysis, and analyzing the constraints and transformative potential of barrier factors; 3) arrangement of HSBFC according to the principle of concentration, continuity and priority to the easy operation. The results revealed that the value of farmland quality uniformity for the administrative villages in the study area was between 7.76 and 21.96, and there was a difference between various administrative villages. The regional spatial autocorrelation patterns included High-High(HH), Low-Low(LL), High-Low(HL) and Low-High(LH). These indicate that regional cultivated land quality has local homogenization characteristics. The most restrictive factors in the study area were the medium and low transformation difficulty indexes, including soil organic matter content, farmland shelterbelt network density, field regularity and scale of the field. In addition, there were also high transformation difficulty indicators in some areas, such as sectional configuration. The project area was divided into four partitions: major construction area, secondary construction area, general construction area, and conditional construction area. The cultivated land area of each subarea was 1538.85 ha, 1224.27 ha, 555.93 ha, and 1666.63 ha, respectively. This comprised of 30.87%, 24.56%, 11.15% and 33.42% of the total project area, respectively. The evaluation model and index system could satisfy the evaluation of farmland quality and diagnosis of obstacle factors to facilitate the subsequent construction decision. The present study provides reference for the practice of regional HSBFC, and a new feasible idea and method for related studies.

Spatiotemporal variation of soil organic carbon in the cultivated soil layer of dry land in the South-Western Yunnan Plateau, China

The dynamics of soil organic carbon(SOC)in cropland is one of the central issues related to both soil fertility and environmental safety. However, little information is available at county level regarding the spatiotemporal variability of SOC in the southwestern mountainous region of China. Thus, this study aimed to explore spatiotemporal changes of SOC in the cultivated soil layer of dry land in Mojiang County,Yunnan Province, China. Data were obtained from the second national soil survey(SNSS) of 1985 and soil tests for fertilizer application carried out by the Mojiang Agricultural Bureau in 2006. The ANOVA test was applied to determine any significant differences between the datasets, while semivariogram analysis was performed on geostatistics via an ordinary Kriging method in order to map spatial patterns of soil organic carbon density(SOCD). The results revealed that SOCD in the cultivated soil layer significantly decreased from 3.93 kg m^(-2) in 1985 to 2.89 kg m^(-2) in 2006, with a total soil organic carbon stock(SOCS) decrease of 41.54×10~4 t over the same period. SOCS levels fell most markedly in yellow-brown soil at a rate of51.52%, while an increase of 8.70% was found in the analysed latosol. Geostatistical analysis also showed that the recorded changes in SOCD between 1985 and2006 were spatially structured. The decreasing trend might be attributed to the combined action of intense cultivation, major crop residue removal without any protective tillage measures, unreasonable fertilization and natural climatic diversity inducing a large decrease in SOC in the studied cultivated dry land region of Mojiang County. Therefore, management measures such as protective tillage should be undertaken in order to enhance soil C sequestration.

Estimation of Land Production and Its Response to Cultivated Land Conversion in North China Plain

Food safety and its related influencing factors in China are the hot research topics currently,and cultivated land conversion is one of the significant factors influencing food safety in China.Taking the North China Plain as the study area,this paper examines the changes of cultivated land area using satellite images,estimates land productivity from 1985 to 2005 using the model of Estimation System for Land Productivity(ESLP),and analyzes the impact of cultivated land conversion on the land production.Compared with the grain yield data from statistical yearbooks,the results indicate that ESLP model is an effective tool for estimating land productivity.Land productivity in the North China Plain showed a slight decreasing trend from 1985 to 2005,spatially,increased from the north to the south gradu-ally,and the net changes varied in different areas.Cultivated land area recorded a marginal decrease of 8.0 × 105 ha,mainly converted to other land uses.Cultivated land conversion had more significant negative impacts on land produc-tion than land productivity did.Land production decreased by about 6.48 × 106 t caused by cultivated land conversion between 1985 and 2005,accounting for 91.9% of the total land production reduction.Although the land productivity increased in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces,it can not offset the overall adverse effects caused by cultivated land con-version.Therefore,there are significant meanings to control the cultivated land conversion and improve the land pro-ductivity for ensuring the land production in the North China Plain.

Multi-Suitability Evaluation of Cultivated Land in Houhu Farm Area Based on GIS and Niche-Fitness

The niche-fitness and limited factors of rice, wheat, cotton and rape inHouhu Farm area of Jianghan Plain are analyzed by weighted average model and limited factor model.The niche-fitness theory and GIS are applied to the research on multi-suitability evaluation. Thehigh values of the niche-fitness (the maximum is 0.958) indicate that the environmental conditionsbasically meet the requirements of crops in the area. Suitability evaluation of single crop showsthat the degrees of suitability are satisfactory. Comprehensive suitability evaluation shows thatthe acreage for grade 1 (highly suitable for cultivation) accounts for 18.16% of the totalcultivated land area, whereas the acreage for grade 3 (critically suitable) and grade 4 (unsuitable)only for 8.9%. The main factors limiting the potential land productivity are cation exchangecapacity (CEC), available phosphorus content and accessibility level of road.

Comparative Study on the Human Driving Force of Cultivated Land and Construction Land Use Change in Hubei Province,China

Change trend of cultivated land and construction land in Hubei Province is analyzed.The years 1998-2003 are the reduction period of cultivated land;the years 2004-2007 are the increase period of cultivated land;the years 1988-2002 are the slow growth period of construction land;and the years of 2003 and 2007 are the increase period of construction land.Based on related social economic statistical data in 1988-2007,human driving forces on cultivated land and construction land in Hubei Province are analyzed quantitatively and comparatively by using SPSS software and mathematical statistics method.Result shows that driving force factors have negative driving effect on cultivated land,and positive driving effect on construction land.Driving force factors have significant differences of driving effects on cultivated land and construction land.Three principal components affecting the changes of cultivated land and construction land are policy,population and economic development level,and gap between urban and rural living standards.The three principal components have different degrees of sensitivity on the two land use types and the effects direction are reverse.The other factor driving abilities are relatively weak,and these factors have relatively stronger driving force on construction land than that on cultivated land.It is put forward that Hubei Province should implement rational allocation of land resources and scientific and rational use in order to ensure land security and to realize the sustainable development of regional economy and society based on the intensive land use,the planning policy constraints,and the agricultural and industrial production.

Classification and Gradation of Cultivated Land Quality in Bishan County of Chongqing, China

The conflicts among food security, economic development and ecological protection are the “sticking point” of undeveloped southwestern mountainous areas of China. The objectives of this study are to identify appropriate inte- grated indicators influencing the classification and gradation of cultivated land quality in the southwestern mountainous area of China based on semi-structure interview, and to promote the monitoring of cultivated land quality in this region. Taking Bishan County of Chongqing as a study case, the integrated indicators involve the productivity, protection, ac- ceptability, and stability of cultivated land. The integrated indicators accord with the characteristics of land resources and human preference in southwestern mountainous area of China. In different agricultural zones, we emphasize different indicators, such as emphasizing productivity, stabilization and acceptability in low hilly and plain agricultural integrative zone (LHP-AIZ), protection, productivity and stability in low mountain and hill agro-forestry ecological zone (LMH-AEZ), and acceptability in plain outskirts integrative agricultural zone (PO-IAZ), respectively. The pronounced difference of classification and gradation of cultivated land, regardless of inter-region or intra-region, is observed, with the reducible rank from PO-IAZ, LHP-AIZ to LMH-AEZ. Research results accord with the characteristics of assets management and intensive utilization of cultivated land resources in the southwestern mountainous area of China. Semi-structure interview adequately presents the principal agent of farmers in agricultural land use and rural land market. This method is very effective and feasible to obtain data of the quality of cultivated land in the southwestern mountainous area of China.

Sustainable Intensification of Cultivated Land Use and Its Influencing Factors at the Farming Household Scale: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Promoting the sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICL) has become crucial for ensuring a sufficient supply of grain and important agricultural products, as well as for the sustainable use of resources. Taking widely used areas of Shandong Province in China as examples, an analytical scale and level framework for SICL is constructed in this study. It measures the level of SICL through material flow analysis, constructs Tobit models to analyze the influencing factors of SICL at the farming household scale,and analyzes the transition mechanisms of SICL. The results show that the overall level of SICL in Shandong Province is low, and the spatial distribution is uneven. There are relatively more farmers participating in unsustainable intensification than in medium or low levels of SICL, with farmers working at a high level of SICL making up the smallest proportion. The factors that determine the level of SICL at which farmers work vary significantly. More male farmers operate at a low SICL level than female farmers, while females outnumber males at a high SICL level. This is mainly related to the regional distribution of age and population. Meanwhile, with larger cultivated land areas, there is a lower degree of land fragmentation, with a higher level of SICL corresponding to a smaller distance to the nearest town closer within 1–5 km from the town center. We can see the level of SICL and its processes themselves are closely related to time and space scales. Based on the above analysis, it is necessary to clarify the standard processes of SICL to adapt them to local conditions. This includes instructing managers on how to improve resource utilization, increase the sustainable development of cultivated land and establish a comprehensively efficient and functional SICL mechanism. The sustainable intensification of cultivated land use and its specific application in the new era are conducive to enriching the frontier theories and methodology of sustainable development, and are of great significance to the advancement of green agriculture and the decision-making of rural high-quality development.

Change of Cultivated Land and Its Implications on Food Security in China

The population growth and demand for high living standard not only increase food demand but also cause more loss of the limited cultivated land resources.Cultivated land loss caused by disasters and the implementation of the “Conversion of Cropland to Forest or Grassland” project make this situation even worse in China.Thus,there is a problem to be solved imminently that to what extent the cultivated land can guarantee food security of China.Based on time-series data on food production and cultivated land area from 1989 to 2003 and other research results,this paper constructs quality index of cultivated land according to different land quality.Regression models are adopted to predicate changes of main factors from 2004 to 2030,which have great effect on cultivated land area or grain productivity,and verify accuracy with coefficient of determination(R2).Nine results were got according to three scenarios of decreasing rate of population growth rate and three cases of urban and rural built-up area per capita.There results show that China’s food supply can only be maintained at a low to middle level of 370-410kg per capita,that is,China has enough land productivity to meet primary demand of food independently.However,it cannot reach the safe target of 500kg per capita if there is no breakthrough in breeding or no remarkable improvement of irrigation works,when the grain self-sufficiency maintains no less than 80%.To breed productive crops and to improve land productivity by meliorating low quality cultivated land are appropriate measures to shrink the gap between food demand and supply.The results may offer helpful information for the formulation of policies on population growth,land use,protection of cultivated land.

Characteristics of Steep Cultivated Land and the Impact of the Grain-for-Green Policy in China

The Grain-for-Green Policy in China could not only improve China's ecological quality, but also influence grain supplies for a short term. Based on data from the detailed nationwide land use survey in 1996 and the steep cultivated land survey update in 2000, a regression model for the driving forces affecting steep cultivated lands was developed, and cluster analysis was used to identify seven steep cultivated land types in order to analyze the grain availability impact of the project with land usage estimates for 2010 and 2030. The results suggested that consecutive days with minimum daily temperature over 10℃ and the dominant slope in a county constrained the spatial distribution of steep cultivated lands. In terms of socioeconomic factors, steep cultivated land was a complex interaction of population size, gross domestic production level, and the richness and quality of cultivated lands having slopes less than 15°. The trends for steep cultivated land in 2010 and 2030 were forecast using a driving forces model and China's grain security criteria and showed that the Grain-for-Green Policy at the national level would not cause a grain shortage or threaten food security criteria. However, if steep sloped lands were to be retired from production, some regions would need grain supplements as early as 2010. Also, assuming that only 60% of the cultivated land at the national level was needed, population and economic development pressures in 2030 would require some steep cultivated lands to be used for grain production.

Livelihood Diversification of Farm Households and Its Impact on Cultivated Land Utilization in Agro-pastoral Ecologically-vulnerable Areas in the Northern China

The relationship between livelihood diversification of farm households and cultivated land utilization has become a core research topic related to global environmental change.Agro-pastoral ecologically-vulnerable areas face challenges such as insufficient ecosystem conservation,low agricultural production,and weak economies.In this study,215 farm households from Zhengxiangbai Banner,Taibus Banner,and Duolun County of Inner Mongolia were surveyed.The sustainable livelihoods framework of the United Kingdom(UK)Department for International Development(DFID)was used to measure the livelihood capital of these farm households.A one-way analysis of variance(ANOVA)was applied to examine the differences in the livelihood capital of different types households,and a correlation analysis was applied to analyze its impact on cultivated land utilization.Results showed that households with non-farming activities accounted for 64.7%of the total surveyed households,and non-farming employment was becoming more prevalent.Physical and financial capital was the driving factors for livelihood diversity.Each livelihood capital had key factors that affected household farmland use behaviors,such as the age of householder,the labor ratio,proportion of income,farmland scale,number of machines,and these had a significantly positive or negative influence on farmland use.Full-time farming households were more likely to transfer the land into cultivation and invest more labor,while non-farming households with high income were likely to transfer farmland out and invest more money to develop efficient farming or improve the employment skills.The results of this study suggest that policymakers need to fully consider livelihood changes of local households.It is effective to strengthen labor training,create farmland market and improve the efficiency of farmland utilization.We hope to achieve a win-win scenario to improve local economies and ecosystem conservation.