Understanding Simulated Causes of Damaging Surface Winds in a Derecho-Producing Mesoscale Convective System near the East China Coast Based on Convection-Permitting Simulations

A mesoscale convective system(MCS) occurred over the East China coastal provinces and the East China Sea on 30April 2021, producing damaging surface winds near the coastal city Nantong with observed speeds reaching 45 m s^(–1). A simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a 1.5-km grid spacing generally reproduces the development and subsequent organization of this convective system into an MCS, with an eastward protruding bow segment over the sea. In the simulation, an east-west-oriented high wind swath is generated behind the gust front of the MCS. Descending dry rear-to-front inflows behind the bow and trailing gust front are found to feed the downdrafts in the main precipitation regions. The inflows help to establish spreading cold outflows and enhance the downdrafts through evaporative cooling. Meanwhile, front-to-rear inflows from the south are present, associated with severely rearward-tilted updrafts initially forming over the gust front. Such inflows descend behind(north of) the gust front, significantly enhancing downdrafts and near-surface winds within the cold pool. Consistently, calculated trajectories show that these parcels that contribute to the derecho originate primarily from the region ahead(south) of the east-west-oriented gust front, and dry southwesterly flows in the low-to-middle levels contribute to strong downdrafts within the MCS. Moreover, momentum budget analyses reveal that a large westward-directed horizontal pressure gradient force within the simulated cold pool produced rapid flow acceleration towards Nantong. The analyses enrich the understanding of damaging wind characteristics over coastal East China and will prove helpful to operational forecasters.

Theoretical derivation of risk-ratios for assessing wind damage in a coastal forest

Based on the discussion of relationships between thinning and wind damage, and published information, a method for estimating risk ratios of wind damage was developed. Estimations of risk-ratio for Pinus thunbergii trees and stands were de-duced from stem bending theory and coefficients characterizing wind profile, distribution of branches and optical stratification po-rosity. The results showed that if the value of constant b in the branch distribution-model equals the attenuation coefficient s in the wind profile model for a single tree crown, then the parameter H/D1.33 (height over stem diameter cubed) can be used to compare and evaluate the risk-ratio of wind damage for individual trees. The same method can be applied to stands using the coefficient of wind profile in a stand, i.e. attenuation coefficient , the coefficient from distributions of optical stratification porosity, i.e. extinction coefficient , and the parameter D1.33. The application of parameter H/D1.33 and the process of determining risk ra-tios of wind damage for stands were also given in the paper.

Combined forest and soil management after a catastrophic event

At the end of October 2018,a storm of unprecedented strength severely damaged the forests of the eastern sector of the Italian Alps.The affected forest area covers 42,500 ha.The president of one of the damaged regions asked for help from the University of Padua.After eight months of discussion,the authors of this article wrote a consensus text.The sometimes asper debate brought to light some crucial aspects:1)even experienced specialists may have various opinions based on scientific knowledge that lead to conflicting proposals for action.For some of them there is evidence that to restore a destroyed natural environment it is more judicious to do nothing;2)the soil corresponds to a living structure and every ecosystem’s management should be based on it;3)faced with a catastrophe,people and politicians find themselves unarmed,also because they rarely have the scientific background to understand natural processes.Yet politicians are the only persons who make the key decisions that drive the economy in play and therefore determine the near future of our planet.This article is an attempt to respond directly to the governor of a region who formally and prudently asked a university department called"Land,Environment,Agriculture and Forestry"for help before taking decisions;4)the authors also propose an artistic interpretation of facts(uncontrolled storm)and conclusions(listen to the soil).Briefly,the authors identify the soil as an indispensable source for the renewal of the destroyed forest,give indications on how to prepare a map of the soils of the damaged region,and suggest to anchor on this soil map a series of silvicultural and soil management actions that will promote the soil conservation and the faster recovery of the natural dynamic stability and resilience.