Assimilation of GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper Flash Extent Density Data in GSI 3DVar, EnKF, and Hybrid En3DVar for the Analysis and Short-Term Forecast of a Supercell Storm Case

Capabilities to assimilate Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite “R-series ”(GOES-R) Geostationary Lightning Mapper(GLM) flash extent density(FED) data within the operational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation ensemble Kalman filter(GSI-EnKF) framework were previously developed and tested with a mesoscale convective system(MCS) case. In this study, such capabilities are further developed to assimilate GOES GLM FED data within the GSI ensemble-variational(EnVar) hybrid data assimilation(DA) framework. The results of assimilating the GLM FED data using 3DVar, and pure En3DVar(PEn3DVar, using 100% ensemble covariance and no static covariance) are compared with those of EnKF/DfEnKF for a supercell storm case. The focus of this study is to validate the correctness and evaluate the performance of the new implementation rather than comparing the performance of FED DA among different DA schemes. Only the results of 3DVar and pEn3DVar are examined and compared with EnKF/DfEnKF. Assimilation of a single FED observation shows that the magnitude and horizontal extent of the analysis increments from PEn3DVar are generally larger than from EnKF, which is mainly caused by using different localization strategies in EnFK/DfEnKF and PEn3DVar as well as the integration limits of the graupel mass in the observation operator. Overall, the forecast performance of PEn3DVar is comparable to EnKF/DfEnKF, suggesting correct implementation.

Application of the finite analytic numerical method to a flowdependent variational data assimilation

An anisotropic diffusion filter can be used to model a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix,which can be achieved by solving the advection-diffusion equation.Because of the directionality of the advection term,the discrete method needs to be chosen very carefully.The finite analytic method is an alternative scheme to solve the advection-diffusion equation.As a combination of analytical and numerical methods,it not only has high calculation accuracy but also holds the characteristic of the auto upwind.To demonstrate its ability,the one-dimensional steady and unsteady advection-diffusion equation numerical examples are respectively solved by the finite analytic method.The more widely used upwind difference method is used as a control approach.The result indicates that the finite analytic method has higher accuracy than the upwind difference method.For the two-dimensional case,the finite analytic method still has a better performance.In the three-dimensional variational assimilation experiment,the finite analytic method can effectively improve analysis field accuracy,and its effect is significantly better than the upwind difference and the central difference method.Moreover,it is still a more effective solution method in the strong flow region where the advective-diffusion filter performs most prominently.

Assimilation of the FY-4A AGRI Clear-Sky Radiance Data in a Regional Numerical Model and Its Impact on the Forecast of the“21·7”Henan Extremely Persistent Heavy Rainfall

Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI)clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed.The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV)channels with conventional observations for the“21·7”Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study.The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm,compared to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations,and that the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations.The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes are that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate.The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A,which compensates for the lack of ocean observations.The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity,which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere.Conversely,the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed;therefore,the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.

A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes

Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space,it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes.In the present study,we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method,in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations.Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution(1 hour)and a spatial resolution of 0.25 L over a wide range of both electron energy(0.1-5.0 MeV)and pitch angle(5°-90°).On the basis of this model,we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1,2,and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance.Our model can reasonably predict the stormtime evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency(up to~0.8-1).The best prediction performance is found for~0.3-3 MeV electrons at L=~3.25-4.5,which extends to higher L and lower energies with increasing pitch angle.Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes,and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.

Reconstructing urban wind flows for urban air mobility using reduced-order data assimilation

Advancements in uncrewed aircrafts and communications technologies have led to a wave of interest and investment in unmanned aircraft systems(UASs)and urban air mobility(UAM)vehicles over the past decade.To support this emerging aviation application,concepts for UAS/UAM traffic management(UTM)systems have been explored.Accurately characterizing and predicting the microscale weather conditions,winds in particular,will be critical to safe and efficient operations of the small UASs/UAM aircrafts within the UTM.This study implements a reduced order data assimilation approach to reduce discrepancies between the predicted urban wind speed with computational fluid dynamics(CFD)Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes(RANS)model with real-world,limited and sparse observations.The developed data assimilation system is UrbanDA.These observations are simulated using a large eddy simulation(LES).The data assimilation approach is based on the time-independent variational framework and uses space reduction to reduce the memory cost of the process.This approach leads to error reduction throughout the simulated domain and the reconstructed field is different than the initial guess by ingesting wind speeds at sensor locations and hence taking into account flow unsteadiness in a time when only the mean flow quantities are resolved.Different locations where wind sensors can be installed are discussed in terms of their impact on the resulting wind field.It is shown that near-wall locations,near turbulence generation areas with high wind speeds have the highest impact.Approximating the model error with its principal mode provides a better agreement with the truth and the hazardous areas for UAS navigation increases by more than 10%as wind hazards resulting from buildings wakes are better simulated through this process.

Prediction of landslide block movement based on Kalman filtering data assimilation method

Compared with the study of single point motion of landslides,studying landslide block movement based on data from multiple monitoring points is of great significance for improving the accurate identification of landslide deformation.Based on the study of landslide block,this paper regarded the landslide block as a rigid body in particle swarm optimization algorithm.The monitoring data were organized to achieve the optimal state of landslide block,and the 6-degree of freedom pose of the landslide block was calculated after the regularization.Based on the characteristics of data from multiple monitoring points of landslide blocks,a prediction equation for the motion state of landslide blocks was established.By using Kalman filtering data assimilation method,the parameters of prediction equation for landslide block motion state were adjusted to achieve the optimal prediction.This paper took the Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area as the research object.Based on the block segmentation of the landslide,the monitoring data of the Baishuihe landslide block were organized,6-degree of freedom pose of block B was calculated,and the Kalman filtering data assimilation method was used to predict the landslide block movement.The research results showed that the proposed prediction method of the landslide movement state has good prediction accuracy and meets the expected goal.This paper provides a new research method and thinking angle to study the motion state of landslide block.

Simulated Indonesian Throughflow in Makassar Strait across the SODA3 products

The Indonesian Throughflow(ITF), which connects the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, plays important roles in the inter-ocean water exchange and regional or even global climate variability. The Makassar Strait is the main inflow passage of the ITF, carrying about 77% of the total ITF volume transport. In this study, we analyze the simulated ITF in the Makassar Strait in the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 3(SODA3) datasets. A total of nine ensemble members of the SODA3 datasets, of which are driven by different surface forcings and bulk formulas, and with or without data assimilation, are used in this study. The annual mean water transports(i.e.,volume, heat and freshwater) are related to the combination of surface forcing and bulk formula, as well as whether data assimilation is employed. The phases of the seasonal and interannual variability in water transports cross the Makassar Strait, are basically consistent with each other among the SODA3 ensemble members. The interannual variability in Makassar Strait volume and heat transports are significantly correlated with El Ni?oSouthern Oscillation(ENSO) at time lags of-6 to 7 months. There is no statistically significant correlation between the freshwater transport and the ENSO. The Makassar Strait water transports are not significantly correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD), which may attribute to model deficiency in simulating the propagation of semiannual Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean to the Makassar Strait.

Assimilating FY-4A AGRI Radiances with a Channel-Sensitive Cloud Detection Scheme for the Analysis and Forecasting of Multiple Typhoons

This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation(DA)method along with the WRF model.A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter(PF)algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual(MMR)algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection scheme.Results show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective,while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same channel.In general,the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI radiances.Moreover,it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon,including the temperature,moisture,and dynamical conditions.The typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA,which could be explained by better simulating the upper trough.The impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is small.On the other hand,improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields,albeit the improvements are limited.

Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.

Added Benefit of the Early-Morning-Orbit Satellite Fengyun-3E on the Global Microwave Sounding of the Three-Orbit Constellation

The three-orbit constellation can comprehensively increase the spatial coverage of polar-orbiting satellites,but the polar-orbiting satellites currently in operation are only mid-morning-orbit and afternoon-orbit satellites.Fengyun-3E(FY-3E)was launched successfully on 5 July 2021 in China.As an early-morning-orbit satellite,FY-3E can help form a complete three-orbit observation system together with the mid-morning and afternoon satellites in the current mainstream operational system.In this study,we investigate the added benefit of FY-3E microwave sounding observations to the midmorning-orbit Meteorological Operational satellite-B(Met Op-B)and afternoon-orbit Fengyun-3D(FY-3D)microwave observations in the Chinese Meteorological Administration global forecast system(CMA-GFS).The results show that the additional FY-3E microwave temperature sounder-3(MWTS-3)and microwave humidity sounder-2(MWHS-2)data can increase the global coverage of microwave temperature and humidity sounding data by 14.8% and 10.6%,respectively.It enables the CMA-GFS to achieve nearly 100% global coverage of microwave-sounding observations at each analysis time.Furthermore,after effective quality control and bias correction,the global biases and standard deviations of the differences between observations and model simulations are also reduced.Based on the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A and the Microwave Humidity Sounder onboard Met Op-B,and the MWTS-2 and MWHS-2 onboard FY-3D,adding the microwave sounding data of FY-3E can further reduce the errors of analysis results and improve the global prediction skills of CMA-GFS,especially for the southern-hemisphere forecasts within 96 hours,all of which are significant at the 95% confidence level.

A multi-scale second-order autoregressive recursive filter approach for the sea ice concentration analysis

To effectively extract multi-scale information from observation data and improve computational efficiency,a multi-scale second-order autoregressive recursive filter(MSRF)method is designed.The second-order autoregressive filter used in this study has been attempted to replace the traditional first-order recursive filter used in spatial multi-scale recursive filter(SMRF)method.The experimental results indicate that the MSRF scheme successfully extracts various scale information resolved by observations.Moreover,compared with the SMRF scheme,the MSRF scheme improves computational accuracy and efficiency to some extent.The MSRF scheme can not only propagate to a longer distance without the attenuation of innovation,but also reduce the mean absolute deviation between the reconstructed sea ice concentration results and observations reduced by about 3.2%compared to the SMRF scheme.On the other hand,compared with traditional first-order recursive filters using in the SMRF scheme that multiple filters are executed,the MSRF scheme only needs to perform two filter processes in one iteration,greatly improving filtering efficiency.In the two-dimensional experiment of sea ice concentration,the calculation time of the MSRF scheme is only 1/7 of that of SMRF scheme.This means that the MSRF scheme can achieve better performance with less computational cost,which is of great significance for further application in real-time ocean or sea ice data assimilation systems in the future.

Coupling Ensemble Kalman Filter with Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.

Testing a Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Method Using an Improved Intermediate Coupled Model for ENSO Analysis and Prediction

A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The ＂observation＂ of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a ＂truth＂ model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.

Assimilating operational SST and sea ice analysis data into an operational circulation model for the coastal seas of China

The prediction of sea surface temperature （SST） is an essential task for an operational ocean circulation model. A sea surface heat flux, an initial temperature field, and boundary conditions directly affect the accuracy of a SST simulation. Here two quick and convenient data assimilation methods are employed to improve the SST simulation in the domain of the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea （BYECS）. One is based on a surface net heat flux correction, named as Qcorrection （QC）, which nudges the flux correction to the model equation; the other is ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI）, which optimizes the model initial field. Based on such two methods, the SST data obtained from the operational SST and sea ice analysis （OSTIA） system are assimilated into an operational circulation model for the coastal seas of China. The results of the simulated SST based on four experiments, in 2011, have been analyzed. By comparing with the OSTIA SST, the domain averaged root mean square error （RMSE） of the four experiments is 1.74, 1.16, 1.30 and 0.91~C, respectively; the improvements of assimilation experiments Exps 2, 3 and 4 are about 33.3%, 25.3%, and 47.7%, respectively. Although both two methods are effective in assimilating the SST, the EnOI shows more advantages than the QC, and the best result is achieved when the two methods are combined. Comparing with the observational data from coastal buoy stations, show that assimilating the high-resolution satellite SST products can effectively improve the SST prediction skill in coastal regions.

An Adaptive Estimation of Forecast Error Covariance Parameters for Kalman Filtering Data Assimilation

An adaptive estimation of forecast error covariance matrices is proposed for Kalman filtering data assim- ilation. A forecast error covariance matrix is initially estimated using an ensemble of perturbation forecasts. This initially estimated matrix is then adjusted with scale parameters that are adaptively estimated by minimizing -2log-likelihood of observed-minus-forecast residuals. The proposed approach could be applied to Kalman filtering data assimilation with imperfect models when the model error statistics are not known. A simple nonlinear model （Burgers＇ equation model） is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Assimilating Surface Observations in a Four-Dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Data Assimilation System to Improve the Analysis and Forecast of a Squall Line Case

This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and winds are assimilated together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convection-permitting model using the VDRAS four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation system. A squall-line case observed during a field campaign is selected to investigate the performance of the technique. A single observation experiment shows that assimilating surface observations can influence the analyzed fields in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The surface-based cold pool, divergence and gust front of the squall line are all strengthened through the assimilation of the single surface observation. Three experiments--assimilating radar data only, assimilating radar data with surface data blended in a mesoscale background, and assimilating both radar and surface observations with a 4DVAR cost function--are conducted to examine the impact of the surface data assimilation. Independent surface and wind profiler observations are used for verification. The result shows that the analysis and forecast are improved when surface observations are assimilated in addition to radar observations. It is also shown that the additional surface data can help improve the analysis and forecast at low levels. Surface and low-level features of the squall line-- including the surface warm inflow, cold pool, gust front, and low-level wind--are much closer to the observations after assimilating the surface data in VDRAS.

Evaluation on data assimilation of a global high resolution wave-tide-circulation coupled model using the tropical Pacific TAO buoy observations

In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography（FIOCOM model） is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature（SST）, sea level anomaly（SLA） and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C（D20）, salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni？o, the Equatorial Undercurrent（EUC） from the TAO is gradually increased during August to November in 2014, and followed by a decreasing process. Since the improvement of the structure in the upper ocean, these events of the EUC can be clearly found in the assimilation results. In conclusion, the data assimilation in this global high resolution model has successfully reduced the model biases and improved the structures of the upper ocean, and the physical processes in reality can be well produced.

A theoretical study of the multigrid three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme using a simple bilinear interpolation algorithm

In order to solve the so-called ＂bull-eye＂ problem caused by using a simple bilinear interpolation as an observational mapping operator in the cost function in the multigrid three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation scheme, a smoothing term, equivalent to a penalty term, is introduced into the cost function to serve as a means of troubleshooting. A theoretical analysis is first performed to figure out what on earth results in the issue of ＂bull-eye＂, and then the meaning of such smoothing term is elucidated and the uniqueness of solution of the multigrid 3DVAR with the smoothing term added is discussed through the theoretical deduction for one-dimensional （1D） case, and two idealized data assimilation experiments （one- and two-dimensional （2D） cases）. By exploring the relationship between the smoothing term and the recursive filter theoretically and practically, it is revealed why satisfied analysis results can be achieved by using such proposed solution for the issue of the multigrid 3DVAR.

Impacts of XBT,TAO,Altimetry and ARGO Observations on the Tropical Pacific Ocean Data Assimilation

This study aims at assessing the relative impacts of four major components of the tropical Pacific Ocean observing system on assimilation of temperature and salinity fields. Observations were collected over a period between January 2001 through June 2003 including temperature data from the expendable bathythermographs （XBT）, thermistor data from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean （TOGA-TAO） mooring array, sea level anomalies from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 altimetry （T/P-J）, and temperature and salinity profiles from the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography （ARGO） floats. An efficient three-dimensional variational analysis-based method was introduced to assimilate the above data into the tropical-Pacific circulation model. To evaluate the impact of the individual component of the observing system, four observation system experiments were carried out. The experiment that assimilated all four components of the observing system was taken as the reference. The other three experiments were implemented by withholding one of the four components. Results show that the spatial distribution of the data influences its relative contribution. XBT observations produce the most distinguished effects on temperature analyses in the off-equatorial region due to the large amount of measurements and high quality. Similarly, the impact of TAO is dominant in the equatorial region due to the focus of the spatial distribution. The Topex/Poseidon-Jason-1 can be highly complementary where the XBT and TAO observations are sparse. The contribution of XBT or TAO on the assimilated salinity is made by the model dynamics because no salinity observations from them are assimilated. Therefore, T/P-J, as a main source for providing salinity data, has been shown to have greater impacts than either XBT or TAO on the salinity analysis. Although ARGO includes the subsurface observations, the relatively smaller number of observation makes it have the smallest contribution to the assimilation system.

An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization

Predicting tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging.It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks,with aid from coherent coupled initialization.This study uses three sets of highresolution regional coupled models(RCMs)covering the Asia−Pacific(AP)region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific.The APRCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting−Regional Ocean Model System(WRF-ROMS):27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS,and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS.In this study,a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis.Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved,the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis,which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics,thus resolving better air−sea and air−land interactions.