The traditional threat score based on fixed thresholds for precipitation verification is sensitive to intensity forecast bias. In this study, the neighborhood precipitation threat score is modified by defining the thr...The traditional threat score based on fixed thresholds for precipitation verification is sensitive to intensity forecast bias. In this study, the neighborhood precipitation threat score is modified by defining the thresholds in terms of the percentiles of overall precipitation instead of fixed threshold values. The impact of intensity forecast bias on the calculated threat score is reduced. The method is tested with the forecasts of a tropical storm that re-intensified after making landfall and caused heavy flooding. The forecasts are produced with and without radar data assimilation. The forecast with assimilation of both radial velocity and reflectivity produce precipitation patterns that better match observations but have large positive intensity bias. When using fixed thresholds, the neighborhood threat scores fail to yield high scores for forecasts that have good pattern match with observations, due to large intensity bias. In contrast, the percentile-based neighborhood method yields the highest score for the forecast with the best pattern match and the smallest position error. The percentile-based method also yields scores that are more consistent with object-based verifications, which are less sensitive to intensity bias, demonstrating the potential value of percentile-based verification.展开更多
近年来,混合型数据的聚类问题受到广泛关注。作为处理混合型数据的一种有效方法,K-prototype聚类算法在初始化聚类中心时通常采用随机选取的策略,然而这种策略在很多实际应用中难以保证聚类结果的质量。针对上述问题,采用基于离群点检...近年来,混合型数据的聚类问题受到广泛关注。作为处理混合型数据的一种有效方法,K-prototype聚类算法在初始化聚类中心时通常采用随机选取的策略,然而这种策略在很多实际应用中难以保证聚类结果的质量。针对上述问题,采用基于离群点检测的策略来为K-prototype算法选择初始中心,并提出一种新的混合型数据聚类初始化算法(initialization of K-prototype clustering based on outlier detection and density,IKP-ODD)。给定一个候选对象,IKP-ODD通过计算其距离离群因子、加权密度以及与已有初始中心之间的加权距离来判断候选对象是否是一个初始中心。IKP-ODD通过采用距离离群因子和加权密度,防止选择离群点作为初始中心。在计算对象的加权密度以及对象之间的加权距离时,采用邻域粗糙集中的粒度邻域熵来计算每一个属性的重要性,并根据属性重要性的大小为不同属性赋予不同的权重,有效地反映不同属性之间的差异性。在多个UCI数据集上的实验表明,相对于现有的初始化方法,IKP-ODD能够更好地解决K-prototype聚类的初始化问题。展开更多
基金primarily supported by the National 973 Fundamental Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430103)the Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration(Grant No.NA17RJ1227)through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration+1 种基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41405100)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.20620140343)
文摘The traditional threat score based on fixed thresholds for precipitation verification is sensitive to intensity forecast bias. In this study, the neighborhood precipitation threat score is modified by defining the thresholds in terms of the percentiles of overall precipitation instead of fixed threshold values. The impact of intensity forecast bias on the calculated threat score is reduced. The method is tested with the forecasts of a tropical storm that re-intensified after making landfall and caused heavy flooding. The forecasts are produced with and without radar data assimilation. The forecast with assimilation of both radial velocity and reflectivity produce precipitation patterns that better match observations but have large positive intensity bias. When using fixed thresholds, the neighborhood threat scores fail to yield high scores for forecasts that have good pattern match with observations, due to large intensity bias. In contrast, the percentile-based neighborhood method yields the highest score for the forecast with the best pattern match and the smallest position error. The percentile-based method also yields scores that are more consistent with object-based verifications, which are less sensitive to intensity bias, demonstrating the potential value of percentile-based verification.
文摘近年来,混合型数据的聚类问题受到广泛关注。作为处理混合型数据的一种有效方法,K-prototype聚类算法在初始化聚类中心时通常采用随机选取的策略,然而这种策略在很多实际应用中难以保证聚类结果的质量。针对上述问题,采用基于离群点检测的策略来为K-prototype算法选择初始中心,并提出一种新的混合型数据聚类初始化算法(initialization of K-prototype clustering based on outlier detection and density,IKP-ODD)。给定一个候选对象,IKP-ODD通过计算其距离离群因子、加权密度以及与已有初始中心之间的加权距离来判断候选对象是否是一个初始中心。IKP-ODD通过采用距离离群因子和加权密度,防止选择离群点作为初始中心。在计算对象的加权密度以及对象之间的加权距离时,采用邻域粗糙集中的粒度邻域熵来计算每一个属性的重要性,并根据属性重要性的大小为不同属性赋予不同的权重,有效地反映不同属性之间的差异性。在多个UCI数据集上的实验表明,相对于现有的初始化方法,IKP-ODD能够更好地解决K-prototype聚类的初始化问题。
