Changes in wintering Hooded Cranes and their habitats at Chongming Dongtan over the past 20 years

The Hooded Crane(Grus monacha)is listed as a Vulnerable species in the IUCN red list.Tidal wetland(tideland),the major habitat for wintering Hooded Cranes at East China’s Chongming Dongtan,has dramatically changed in the past two decades,but there is limited knowledge about the population and habitat changes of the Hooded Cranes.This study investigated the population size and distribution of wintering Hooded Cranes at Chongming Dongtan from 2000 to 2021.We used remote sensing images combined with a vegetation classification algorithm to analyse the distribution of saltmarsh vegetation.The quadrat method was used to investigate the density and weight of the underground corms of Sea Bulrush(Scirpus mariquter),the main food on tideland for the Hooded Cranes.From 2000 to 2021,the population number of wintering Hooded Cranes at Chongming Dongtan remained stable at approximately 100.In 2000,the area of Scirpus spp.and Common Reed(Phragmites australis)accounted for approximately half of the total saltmarsh area at Chongming Dongtan,respectively.The invasive Smooth Cordgrass(Spartina alterniflora)rapidly expanded on tideland in the 2000s while the Scirpus spp.was competed out and thus significantly reduced in area.After the implementation of an ecological project to control Smooth Cordgrass and to restore Scirpus spp.in the 2010s,the area of the Smooth Cordgrass decreased considerably while the area of Scirpus spp.increased.The corms of Sea Bulrush decreased on the southeastern tideland during the study period,which might be the cause of the northward movement of the foraging Hooded Cranes on tideland.We also found Hooded Cranes foraged crops in the nearby farmland in mid-winter,causing human-bird conflicts in the recent decade.Our results found that changes in habitat and food conditions on tideland impacted wintering Hooded Cranes.Foraging in farmland with human disturbance in the recent decade might be related to insufficient food on tideland.We suggest active intervention to accelerate the restoration of Sea Bulrush on tideland and reduce human disturbance in farmland to improve the habitat quality of the wintering Hooded Crane at Chongming Dongtan.

Abrupt change of winter temperature over the Mongolian Plateau during 1961-2017

Studying the abrupt change of winter temperature(ACWT)over the Mongolian Plateau(MP,including Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and State of Mongolia)is of great significance for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and the mechanism of global climate change.Monthly temperature data during 1961–2017was collected,and the abrupt change point was determined by the Mann–Kendall test and sliding ttest,to analyze the characteristics and causes of ACWT.The results showed that(a)The winter temperature has rapidly increased with a trend of 0.41℃/10a,which was significantly higher than that of the rest area of Chinese mainland,indicating that climate change in the MP was more sensitive to global warming.(b)The abrupt change point occurred in 1988,with temperature of-15.5℃and-14.1℃before and after abrupt change,respectively.The ACWT in 50°N was 1–3 years later than that in 40°N,and the isotherms of different temperatures moved northward by 10–200 km,especially-16℃isotherms moved approximately 200 km northward after 1988.(c)The Arctic Oscillation(AO)and Mongolian High(MH)anomaly affects winter temperature over the MP.When the AO is unusually strong,the MH and East Asian winter monsoon are weak,and southerly winds prevail in most regions,which is not conducive to the cold air developing southward,leading to higher winter temperature in the MP.Overwise,abnormally northerly winds prevail and temperature is low.Meanwhile,the abrupt change time of AO occurred in 1987 before winter temperature.It shows that the AO indirectly causes winter temperatures to rise by influencing the MH and is also the main driving factor of ACWT.

中间支闭塞致de Winter ST-T改变1例

经典的de Winter心电图改变在临床上较为少见,其梗死相关动脉多为左前降支近端。本文报道绍兴市人民医院2021年11月24日收治的1例中间支全闭致心电图de Winter ST-T改变病例,造影证实中间支100%闭塞。

Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain

Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses,while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear.Based on a long-term climatic dataset(during 1958–2015)from weather stations in the North China Plain(NCP),the influencing mechanism of various climatic factors on drought risk of winter wheat was quantified by using sensitivity analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test and slope estimation.The results indicated that climatic factors have changed considerably over the past six decades in the growth season of winter wheat.As a result,winter wheat suffered from severe droughts(with 350 mm of water deficit during its growth season),particularly at the jointing–heading and heading–mature stages,which were critical to crop yield formation.There were large spatial and temporal variations in drought risk and climatic change factors at different growth stages of winter wheat.Despite precipitation playing a vital role in determining the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk,high temperature and low humidity along with other climatic factors at key growth stages of winter wheat aggravated drought risk.Particularly,temperature at nearly 90%weather stations showed a notablely upward trend,which exacerbated water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat.Given the complexity and high uncertainty of climate change,these findings provide important information for adapting crop production to future climate change and accompanied droughts while ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability.

The Influence of Climate Change on Winter Wheat during 2012-2100 under A2 and A1B Scenarios in China

By assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices in China,the influence of climate change on winter wheat is simulated using the corrected future climate projections under SRES A2 and AlB scenarios from 2012 to 2100,respectively.The results indicate that the growth of winter wheat would be strongly influenced by climate change in future.The average flowering and maturity dates of winter wheat would advance by 26 and 27 days under scenario A2,and by 23 and 24 days respectively under scenario A1B from 2012 to 2100.The simulated potential productivity of winter wheat shows a decrease of 14.3%and 12.5%for scenarios A2 and A1B respectively without the fertilization effect of CO_2,while an increase of 1.3%and 0.6%with the fertilization effect of CO_2.Additionally,for northern China, the simulated potential productivity would markedly decrease under both scenarios,independent with the fertilization effect of CO_2,which indicates that the current planted winter wheat would be more vulnerable than that in southern China.The most likely reason is the current winter wheat varieties in northern China are winter varieties or strong winter varieties,which need some days of low temperature for dormancy.While in southern China,the winter wheat is spring or half winter varieties and can grow slowly during winter,thus,they would be affected slightly when winter temperature increases.The results of this study may have important implications for adaptation measures.

A tripole winter precipitation change pattern around the Tibetan Plateau in the late 1990s

在20世纪70年代和90年代末,伴随着东亚夏季风的两次主要年代际变化,高原积雪分别显著增加和减少.尽管很多学者研究了东亚夏季风年代际变化的可能机制,高原积雪变化也被认为是主要因素之一,但是关于高原冬季积雪本身发生年代际变化的潜在机制尚鲜有研究.本文揭示了20世纪90年代末高原及周边冬季降水的三极子变化特征:高原主体上空主要为降水减少,其南北两侧区域降水增加.数值试验结果表明,热带太平洋海温变化可以通过调节沃克环流和局地哈德莱环流,对上述三极子降水变化型态产生显著影响.

被漏诊的De Winter ST-T改变1例

患者男性,68岁,主因活动后胸痛3d,加重3h于2017年10月20日急诊入院。患者近3d反复于活动后出现胸痛,为胸骨后压榨性疼痛,休息后5～10min可缓解,未至医院进一步明确诊治。就诊当日晨起于排便后再次出现胸痛,性质较前加重,伴头晕、大汗,持续不缓解,由家人送来我院急诊。既往无高血压、糖尿病等病史,吸烟30余年,5～10支/d。9月前因前列腺增生行前列腺电切术治疗。

de Winter ST-T改变心电图三例

心电图de Winter ST-T改变患者主要表现为左胸导联ST段上斜型压低和T波高尖,其左前降支血管病变严重,需行急诊冠状动脉介入治疗。本文报道三例在临床表现、心电图特征、冠状动脉造影上都符合de Winter ST-T改变心电图,临床工作中及时发现并认识这种心电现象,对指导急诊介入治疗有重要意义。

De Winter ST-T改变一例

急性心肌梗死超急性期常表现为相应导联ST抬高伴T波高耸直立,但由de Winter等于2008年首先描述了一些患者在前降支近段发生急性闭塞或次全闭塞时却可表现为胸前导联ST段上斜型压低伴T波高尖直立[1],被称为de Wniter ST-T改变,在临床上容易被误诊或漏诊,现报道一例如下：1病例简介患者男性,59岁,

对心电图de Winter ST-T改变的思考

de Winter ST-T改变心电图在命名、罪犯血管定位及诊断等方面尚有争议。本文结合文献,就de Winter ST-T改变心电图争议问题,提出了作者的观点。

老年女性患者心电图de Winter ST-T改变一例

1临床资料患者女性,66岁,因＂突发胸闷、黑矇6小时余＂入院。患者于2018-04-17下午17：00左右无明显诱因出现胸闷,伴出汗、黑矇、乏力等不适,无意识丧失、头疼、胸痛、心慌、呼吸困难、腹痛、腹泻、恶心、呕吐、发热、畏寒等症状,持续不能缓解,为求进一步诊疗,来我院急诊。患者既往体健。查体：体温36.6℃,脉搏55次/min,呼吸19次/min,血压85/54 mmHg（1 mmHg=0.133 k Pa）。

Sediment records of environmental changes in the south end of the Zhejiang-Fujian coastal mud area during the past 100 years

Previous studies carried out in the East China Sea(ECS) mud area focused on long-term environmental changes in sedimentary records during the Holocene, especially during the mid-Holocene high-stand water levels period. These results indicate that sensitive grain size groups can be used as a sedimentary proxy to reconstruct the evolution of the East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM). The studies have been carried out mainly in the northern and middle portions of the Zhejiang-Fujian coastal mud, however, similar research in the southern portion and the comparison between sedimentary proxy and modern measured data of EAWM are lacking. In this paper, we focused on a sedimentary record of the past 100 years with an enhanced resolution of 1.8 years. Investigations of the southern end of the Zhejiang-Fujian coastal mud area were conducted on the basis of 210 Pb chronology, grain-size analysis and chemical element analysis. The correspondence between the mean grain size(Mz) of sediment sensitive grain size and the measured EAWM was confirmed for the first time. We found that during the recent 100 years, the variation of the mean grain size of the sensitive population in the southern portion of the Zhejiang-Fujian mud was mainly controlled by the EAWM intensity changes; and not directly related to changes in the sediment discharge from Datong station of the Changjiang River(DTSD). Finally, recent changes in the content of heavy metals in study area refl ect the impact of human activities on the environment.

Wheat Breeding Strategies under Climate Change based on CERES-Wheat Model

Climate change has inevitably had a negative impact on agricultural production and food security.Crop breeding improvement is an efficient option to adapt to future climate and increase grain production.To study the potential to provide valuable advice for breeding under climate change condition,the crop growth model was used as basis to investigate,the effects of the cultivar genotype parameters of the crop estimation through resource and environment synthesis-wheat(CERES-Wheat)model on yield under different climate scenarios.In this study,solar radiation had a positive effect on the yield of winter wheat,while the effects of daily temperature change conditions on yield were vague,particularly under a change in daily maximum temperature.For the seven cultivar genotype parameters in the CERES-Wheat model,the yield had an approximately linear increasing relationship with kernel number(G1)and kernel size(G2).Vernalization days(P1V)had a fluctuating effect on winter yield without an evident unidirectional tendency.The yield of winter wheat increased with an increase in photoperiodic response(P1D)when P1D values varied from 64.81 to 79.81.Phyllochron interval(PHINT)had a positive impact on the yield of winter wheat.This study presented the potential benefits of the crop growth model to provide directional suggestions for crop breeding.

Prediction of the potential distribution and analysis of the freezing injury risk of winter wheat on the Loess Plateau under climate change

Determining the suitable areas for winter wheat under climate change and assessing the risk of freezing injury are crucial for the cultivation of winter wheat.We used an optimized Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)Model to predict the potential distribution of winter wheat in the current period(1970-2020)and the future period(2021-2100)under four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios(SSPs).We applied statistical downscaling methods to downscale future climate data,established a scientific and practical freezing injury index(FII)by considering the growth period of winter wheat,and analyzed the characteristics of abrupt changes in winter wheat freezing injury by using the Mann-Kendall(M-K)test.The results showed that the prediction accuracy AUC value of the MaxEnt Model reached 0.976.The minimum temperature in the coldest month,precipitation in the wettest season and annual precipitation were the main factors affecting the spatial distribution of winter wheat.The total suitable area of winter wheat was approximately 4.40×10^(7)ha in the current period.In the 2070s,the moderately suitable areas had the greatest increase by 9.02×10^(5)ha under SSP245 and the least increase by 6.53×10^(5)ha under SSP370.The centroid coordinates of the total suitable areas tended to move northward.The potential risks of freezing injury in the high-latitude and-altitude areas of the Loess Plateau,China increased significantly.The northern areas of Xinzhou in Shanxi Province,China suffered the most serious freezing injury,and the southern areas of the Loess Plateau suffered the least.Environmental factors such as temperature,precipitation and geographical location had important impacts on the suitable area distribution and freezing injury risk of winter wheat.In the future,greater attention should be paid to the northward boundaries of both the winter wheat planting areas and the areas of freezing injury risk to provide the early warning of freezing injury and implement corresponding management strategies.

后冬奥时代我国冰雪产业高质量发展的动力变革与实现路径

运用文献资料法和逻辑分析法对后冬奥时代我国冰雪产业高质量发展的基础能力、发展机遇、动力变革进行了研究。研究发现:冰雪产业自身变革发展模式、拓展地理空间、服务乡村振兴、区域协同等自身优势为高质量发展奠定了基础;北京冬奥会为我国冰雪产业的高质量发展提供了发展机遇,加快构建了冰雪产业高质量发展的新格局,促进了产品体系完善和多链融合;产业变革的动力来自供需平衡、市场主体支撑、要素驱动转化、制度环境、科技创新。因此笔者提出要加强顶层设计,构建中国特色现代化的高质量冰雪产业发展体系;提高效率,规范职能,建设协同高效的一流营商环境;加强健康引领,丰富供给类型,建设服务人民的冰雪体育公共服务体系;夯实开放理念,增强科技助力,建设创新融合低碳发展的冰雪产业市场机制;建立支撑冰雪产业高质量发展的人才培养体系;以更高水平的对外开放,深度融入全球冰雪产业格局等路径促进后冬奥会时代我国冰雪产业的高质量发展。

右冠脉次全闭塞导致前壁导联De Winter心电图改变1例

De Winter心电图胸前导联ST段不抬高,而呈上斜型压低,不易引起医护人员重视,此类患者的冠脉造影往往存在前降支或左主干存在次全闭塞或闭塞,被认为是急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死等危症心电图的主要依据。实际工作中发现此类患者冠状动脉病变不只是前降支或左主干的病变,还有回旋支、右冠脉的病变。我们发现青岛大学附属威海市中心医院1例患者的前壁导联De Winter心电图改变,为右侧冠脉次全闭塞造成,现给以报道,以飨读者。

大西洋多年代际振荡对东亚气候影响的综述

本文综述了近年来有关大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)及其对东亚气候影响的研究进展,主要包括AMO的形成机制与指数定义、AMO对东亚夏季和冬季气候的影响、AMO与其他大洋的协同作用。目前,关于AMO的形成机制仍有不同意见,传统观点认为AMO是气候系统内部过程尤其是大西洋经向翻转流造成的,但近期有工作指出AMO是气溶胶、火山喷发等外强迫驱动产生或是海洋对大气随机强迫的一种响应。AMO可以通过三种途径调制东亚夏季气候,当AMO处于正位相时,东亚夏季风加强、降水增多、气温升高,反之亦然。同时,AMO正位相有利于东亚冬季风偏强,欧亚大陆中纬度及中国北方偏冷;负位相时则大体相反。鉴于AMO的重要作用,加深理解AMO形成机制及其对东亚气候影响有益于提升东亚气候的年代际预测水平。

湖北省小麦潜在产量时空异质性特征及驱动因子分析

气候变化致使气象要素的时空分布格局发生了不同程度的变化,加剧了作物产量空间异质性的形成。因此,评估气候因子对潜在产量的贡献程度,有利于解析区域间潜在产量差异的形成机制,这对于区域内作物的合理规划和缩小区域间产量差具有重要意义。本研究基于1985—2021年湖北省小麦生长期间的气候数据,应用验证后的APSIM-Wheat模型模拟小麦的潜在产量,利用多元回归等方法评估各气候因子对潜在产量变化的贡献程度,解析潜在产量空间异质性的形成机制。结果表明:湖北省小麦潜在产量变化范围为5068.9~7895.3 kg∙hm^(−2),平均潜在产量为7187.6 kg∙hm^(−2)。近35年来,小麦生育期内的平均温度和总降水量分别以0.1℃∙(10a)−1和13.2 mm∙(10a)−1的速率增加,但总太阳辐射以123.3 MJ∙m^(−2)∙(10a)^(−1)的速率下降。这些气候因素变化加剧了生育期内易涝、弱光环境的形成,导致小麦生产潜力降低,潜在产量平均每10年下降422.0 kg∙hm^(−2),降水量的增加对潜在产量下降的贡献最大,相关系数高达−0.73。湖北省小麦潜在产量的空间分布特征为北高南低,南北小麦平均潜在产量和光热熵差距分别为218 kg∙hm^(−2)和0.06 MJ∙m^(−2)∙d^(−1)∙℃^(−1)。光热熵的高度空间异质性是造成潜在产量差异的主要因素,二者相关性高达0.82。受光热熵时空分布不均的影响,荆州小麦拔节至成熟期的平均每日生长速率较襄阳地区低28.5 kg∙hm^(−2)∙d^(−1),最终导致荆州小麦的潜在产量较襄阳地区低。综上,气候变化使得湖北省小麦潜在产量整体呈下降趋势,针对以江汉平原地区为代表的易涝、弱光的小麦生长环境,选育具有高光效和耐涝性的小麦品种对于缩小区域间的产量差距和实现区域粮食总产的全面提高具有重要意义。

长江流域冬油菜需水量及水分盈亏特征分析

基于长江流域冬油菜优势产区11个省、2个直辖市共计129个城市近20年的逐日气象数据,采用经验公式、FAO推荐的改进HS数据模型和作物系数分别计算各城市冬油菜全生育期及各生育阶段有效降水量及需水量,并对水分盈亏指数及多年旱涝灾害发生频率进行分析。结果表明,长江流域冬油菜在各生育阶段有效降水量均呈由东南向西北递减的带状分布特征,其中鄱阳、洞庭两湖平原及杭嘉湖平原有效降水量充沛,长江中下游干流南北沿岸地区有效降水量适中,秦岭—淮河一线、四川盆地及云贵高原有效降水量偏少;各生育阶段的需水量呈现西南高、东南中、西北低的分布特征,其中云南省需水量最高,长江中下游平原需水量适中,秦岭—淮河一线、四川盆地、贵州省需水量最低;多年水分盈亏空间分布特征表现为长江中下游干流南北沿岸地区水分供应适中,秦岭—淮河一线、四川盆地、云贵高原水分供应不足;水分盈亏年代演变特征表现为苗期长江上游旱灾多发、涝灾偶发,中下游涝灾多发、旱灾偶发,其他生育阶段长江上游旱灾频发,中下游旱灾多发、涝灾偶发的特征。为有效保障长江流域冬油菜各生育阶段的适当水分供应,在苗期阶段,长江上游地区应注意适量灌溉、中下游地区应注意及时排涝;其他生育阶段,长江上游地区应注意充分灌溉,中下游干流北岸城市应注意适时灌溉,中下游干流南岸城市应注意适时排涝,以促进长江流域冬油菜高产稳产,保障国内油菜籽原料稳定供应。

气候变化对定州市冬小麦生育期的影响分析

为研究定州市冬小麦生育期对气候变化的响应,利用1981—2022年气象观测资料及1982—2022年冬小麦生育期资料,分析了定州市近40年来冬小麦全生育期气候变化情况、极端天气发生情况以及冬小麦生育期的变化趋势,并对冬小麦生育期与气象要素进行了相关性分析。结果表明:定州市冬小麦生育期气温呈变暖的趋势,降水量呈增多的趋势,日照时数呈减少的趋势;极端高温事件呈增多的趋势,极端低温事件呈减少的趋势,整体呈现变暖的趋势;极端降水指数呈增多的趋势;播种—越冬期整体呈推迟的趋势,越冬—成熟期整体呈现提前的趋势,冬小麦全生育期呈现显著缩短的趋势;定州市冬小麦适播期为9月26日—10月7日,最佳播种期为9月28日—10月2日,同时应在适播期范围内延迟播种;1982—2022年定州市冬小麦全生育期历期呈缩短趋势的主要原因是气候变暖和日照时数减少。