Modelling of debris-flow susceptibility and propagation: a case study from Northwest Himalaya

The geological and geographical position of the Northwest Himalayas makes it a vulnerable area for mass movements particularly landslides and debris flows. Mass movements have had a substantial impact on the study area which is extending along Karakorum Highway(KKH) from Besham to Chilas. Intense seismicity, deep gorges, steep terrain and extreme climatic events trigger multiple mountain hazards along the KKH, among which debris flow is recognized as the most destructive geohazard. This study aims to prepare a field-based debris flow inventory map at a regional scale along a 200 km stretch from Besham to Chilas. A total of 117 debris flows were identified in the field, and subsequently, a point-based debris-flow inventory and catchment delineation were performed through Arc GIS analysis. Regional scale debris flow susceptibility and propagation maps were prepared using Weighted Overlay Method(WOM) and Flow-R technique sequentially. Predisposing factors include slope, slope aspect, elevation, Topographic Roughness Index(TRI), Topographic Wetness Index(TWI), stream buffer, distance to faults, lithology rainfall, curvature, and collapsed material layer. The dataset was randomly divided into training data(75%) and validation data(25%). Results were validated through the Receiver Operator Characteristics(ROC) curve. Results show that Area Under the Curve(AUC) using WOM model is 79.2%. Flow-R propagation of debris flow shows that the 13.15%, 22.94%, and 63.91% areas are very high, high, and low susceptible to debris flow respectively. The propagation predicated by Flow-R validates the naturally occurring debris flow propagation as observed in the field surveys. The output of this research will provide valuable input to the decision makers for the site selection, designing of the prevention system, and for the protection of current infrastructure.

Modeling Experiment of Break of Debris-Flow Dam

Glaciers are extensively developed in the southwest of Tibet and the moraines are widely distributed with large depth. Large-scale debris flows are often reported which blocked rivers and formed dams. In this paper, seven large debris flows in four valleys are discussed, among which five dams developed. 13 sets of experiments have been conducted in laboratory to simulate the formation and failure of the dam. Finally, a model of dam failure is proposed and a formula is established to calculate the flood discharge： Q=kbnnk/TB^-/LG^0.1,where bk is the outlet width of the dam at the original water level, hk the erosive depth, T the time from overflow to final state of failure, the average width of lake; L the length of the lake, and G the total potential energy of the water in the lake.

Geomorphic effect of debris-flow sediments on the Min River,Wenchuan Earthquake region,western China

Coseismic landslides and subsequent mobilization of sediment greatly aggravated the landscape evolution and river sedimentation after the Wenchuan earthquake.The debris-flow alluvial fan and river morphological index was combined to describe quantitatively the effects of debris-flow sediment on the river characteristics in Longmen Mountains.The section of the Min River from the urban area of the Wenchuan county to the epicenter,the Yingxiu town in this county,was selected as the study area.We identified 27 river-blocking debrisflows(5 partial-,7 semi-,7 over semi-,and 5 fullyblocking degrees)in the study area via remote sensing interpretation and field survey.Based on this,the response of river longitudinal profile and curvature to debris-flow sediment was qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed.The results show that the channel gradient has decreased due to debris-flow aggradation,while two marked peaks in the river steepness index(ksn,represents the relative steepness degree of the channel)changed from 585 m0.9 to 732 m0.9 in zone 1,from 362 m0.9 to 513 m0.9 in zone 2.Moreover,the main channel has undergone substantial lateral migration with channel width decreased and river curvature increased.The temporal and spatial variation between river morphological characteristics and debris-flow sediments in short-term provides insights into the internal dynamic role of mass wasting processes in river morphology,which could be served as useful information for natural hazards management to prevent the river from being blocked by episodically debris flows after the earthquake.

Quantifying the impact of earthquakes and geological factors on spatial heterogeneity of debris-flow prone areas:A case study in the Hengduan Mountains

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of debris-flow-prone areas holds significant implications for regional risk management, particularly in seismically active regions with geological faults. Despite the significance of this knowledge, a comprehensive quantification of the influence of regional topographical and geological factors on the spatial heterogeneity of debris-flow-prone areas has been lacking. This study selected the Hengduan Mountains, an earthquake-prone region characterized by diverse surface conditions and complex landforms, as a representative study area. An improved units zoning and objective factors identification methodology was employed in earthquake and fault analysis to assess the impact of seismic activity and geological factors on spatial heterogeneity of debrisflow prone areas. Results showed that the application of GIS technology with hydrodynamic intensity and geographical units analysis can effectively analyze debris-flow prone areas. Meanwhile, earthquake and fault zones obviously increase the density of debrisflow prone catchments and make them unevenly distributed. The number of debris-flow prone areas shows a nonlinear variation with the gradual increase of geomorphic factor value. Specifically, the area with 1000 m-2500 m elevation difference, 25°-30° average slope, and 0.13-0.15 land use index is the most favorable conditions for debris-flow occurrence;The average annual rainfall from 600 to 1150 mm and landslides gradient from 16° to 35° are the main causal factors to trigger debris flow. Our study sheds light on the quantification of spatial heterogeneity in debris flow-prone areas in earthquake-prone regions, which can offer crucial support for post-debris flow risk management strategies.

Extreme Events Assessment Methodology Coupling Debris Flow,Flooding and Tidal Levels in the Coastal Floodplain of the Sao Paulo North Coast(Brazil)

The North Coastal Region of the State of S?o Paulo, which comprises the Municipalities of Caraguatatuba, S?o Sebasti?o, Ilhabela and Ubatuba, is one of the most prone to flooding and debris flow deposition Brazilian areas, owing to hydrological extreme rainfall events usually coupled with extreme tidal levels. This risk is also high due to human lives and material assets, with increasing population rates and the establishment of large companies such as the Oil industry, with reduced defense/prevention measures and works.The catastrophic scenario of the city of Caraguatatuba, in March 1967, resulting from one of the most serious natural disasters in Brazil, fosters discussions about probabilities of heavy rainfall-caused events and rise in the sea level in coastal areas. Hence, this research is a consequence of this reality. The research is founded on an innovative methodology based on the analysis of past data of rainfall and tidal stations, complemented with debris flow registers in the region of the north coastal zone of the State of S?o Paulo (Brazil). The anaysis developed involved the meteorological, hydraulic, geotechnical and statistical knowledge areas.Practical results are intended to be used for urban planning, designs of macro-drainage, fluvial, maritime projects and debris flow retention structures. These practical applications will then associate the probability of occurrence of certain types of heavy rainfall-caused events such as flooding or debris flow coupled with a corresponding increase in tidal levels.