Arctic Sea Level Variability from Oceanic Reanalysis and Observations

Quantifying the contributions to Arctic sea level(ASL)variability is critical to understand how the Arctic is responsing to ongoing climate change.Here,we use Ocean Reanalysis System 5(ORAS5)reanalysis data and tide gauge and satellite altimetry observations to quantify contributions from different physical processes on the ASL variability.The ORAS5 reanalysis shows that the ASL is rising with a trend of 2.5±0.3 mm yr−1(95%confidence level)over 1979-2018,which can be attributed to four components:(i)the dominant component from the global sea level increase of 1.9±0.5 mm yr−1,explaining 69.7%of the total variance of the ASL time series;(ii)the Arctic Oscillation-induced mass redistribution between the deep central basin and shallow shelves,with no significant trend and explaining 6.3%of the total variance;(iii)the steric sea level increase centering on the Beaufort Gyre region with a trend of 0.5±0.1 mm yr−1 and explaining 29.1%of the total variance of the ASL time series;and(iv)the intrusion of Pacific water into the Arctic Ocean,with no significant trend and contributing 14.2%of the total ASL variability.Furthermore,the dramatic sea ice melting and the larger area of open water changes the impact of the large-scale atmospheric forcing on the ASL variability after 1995,and the ocean dynamic circulation plays a more important role in the ASL variability.

Impacts of the upper-ocean salinity variations on the decadal sea level change in the Southeast Indian Ocean during the Argo era

In the past nearly two decades,the Argo Program has created an unprecedented global observing array with continuous in situ salinity observations,providing opportunities to extend our knowledge on the variability and effects of ocean salinity.In this study,we utilize the Argo data during 2004–2017,together with the satellite observations and a newly released version of ECCO ocean reanalysis,to explore the decadal salinity variability in the Southeast Indian Ocean(SEIO)and its impacts on the regional sea level changes.Both the observations and ECCO reanalysis show that during the Argo era,sea level in the SEIO and the tropical western Pacific experienced a rapid rise in 2005–2013 and a subsequent decline in 2013–2017.Such a decadal phase reversal in sea level could be explained,to a large extent,by the steric sea level variability in the upper 300 m.Argo data further show that,in the SEIO,both the temperature and salinity changes have significant positive contributions to the decadal sea level variations.This is different from much of the Indo-Pacific region,where the halosteric component often has minor or negative contributions to the regional sea level pattern on decadal timescale.The salinity budget analyses based on the ECCO reanalysis indicate that the decadal salinity change in the upper 300 m of SEIO is mainly caused by the horizontal ocean advection.More detailed decomposition reveals that in the SEIO,there exists a strong meridional salinity front between the tropical low-salinity and subtropical high salinity waters.The meridional component of decadal circulation changes will induce strong cross-front salinity exchange and thus the significant regional salinity variations.

Seasonal Change of Steric Sea Level in the GIN Seas

The Greenland Sea,Iceland Sea,and Norwegian Sea (GIN seas) form the main channel connecting the Arctic Ocean with other Oceans,where significant water and energy exchange take place,and play an important role in global climate change.In this study steric sea level,associated with temperature and salinity,in the GIN seas is examined based on analysis of the monthly temperature and salinity fields from Polar science center Hydrographic Climatology (PHC3.0).A method proposed by Tabata et al.is used to calculate steric sea level,in which,steric sea level change due to thermal expansion and haline contraction is termed as the thermosteric component (TC) and the halosteric component (SC),recpectively.Total steric sea level (TSSL) change is the sum of TC and SC.The study shows that SC is making more contributions than TC to the seasonal change of TSSL in the Greenland Sea,whereas TC contributes more in the Norwegian and the Iceland Seas.Annual variation of TSSL is larger than 50 mm over most regions of the GIN Seas,and can be larger than 200 mm at some locations such as 308 mm at 76.5 N,12.5 E and 246 mm at 77.5 N,17.5 W.

Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise （SLR）, it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model （ROGCM）, with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas （BYECSs）, was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 （CCSM3） under the International Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

Seismic stratigraphy of the Qiongdongnan deep sea channel system,northwest South China Sea

Based on more than 4000 km 2D seismic data and seismic stratigraphic analysis, we discussed the extent and formation mechanism of the Qiongdongnan deep sea channel. The Qiongdongnan deep sea channel is a large incised channel which extends from the east boundary of the Yinggehai Basin, through the whole Qiongdongnan and the Xisha trough, and terminates in the western part of the northwest subbasin of South China Sea. It is more than 570 km long and 4–8 km wide. The chaotic (or continuous) middle (or high) amplitude, middle (or high) continuity seismic facies of the channel reflect the different lithological distribution of the channel. The channel formed as a complex result of global sea level drop during early Pliocene, large scale of sediment supply to the Yinggehai Basin, inversion event of the Red River strike-slip fault, and tilted direction of the Qiongdongnan Basin. The large scale of sediment supply from Red River caused the shelf break of the Yinggehai Basin to move torwards the S and SE direction and developed large scale of prograding wedge from the Miocene, and the inversion of the Red River strike-slip fault induced the sediment slump which formed the Qiongdongnan deep sea channel.

Global sea level variations from altimetry,GRACE and Argo data over 2005-2014

Total sea level variations（SLVs） are caused by two major components：steric variations due to thermal expansion of seawater,and mass-induced variations due to mass exchange between ocean and land.In this study,the global SLV and its steric and mass components were estimated by satellite altimetry,Argo float data and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） data over 2005-2014.Space gravimetry observations from GRACE suggested that two-thirds of the global mean sea level rise rate observed by altimetry（i.e.,3.1 ± 0.3 mm/a from 2005 to 2014） could be explained by an increase in ocean mass.Furthermore,the global mean sea level was observed to drop significantly during the2010/2011 La Nina event,which may be attributed to the decline of ocean mass and steric SLV.Since early 2011,the global mean sea level began to rise rapidly,which was attributed to an increase in ocean mass.The findings in this study suggested that the global mean sea-level budget was closed from 2005 to 2014 based on altimetry,GRACE,and Argo data.

Regional Sea Level Variation on Interannual Timescale in the East China Sea

Interannual sea level variation is investigated with the oceanic and atmospheric datasets in the East China Sea (ECS). Two modes are distinct on the interannual timescale, illustrated as the basin mode and the dipole mode. They account for 20% and 18% to the total interannual sea level variance respectively. The basin mode corresponds to the variability of the Kuroshio transport which is modulated by the PDO while the dipole mode is likely related to the local oceanic and atmospheric adjustment. Large-scale atmospheric circulation effect is dominant in influencing the interannual sea level in the ECS. ECS sea level responds barotropically to the basin-wide wind field, which illustrates negative correlation to the zonal-mean wind stress curl in the Pacific Ocean. Sea level variation exhibits the negative correlation at 8 years lag with the basin mean wind stress curl anomalies on the interannual timescale. The lagging years are consistent with the timescale that the baroclinic Rossby waves propagate westward in the North Pacific Ocean. Wind stress curl anomalies could also change the strength of the Kuroshio transport, and thus affect the local sea level through sea surface height adjustment. Local oceanic and atmospheric effect illustrates as another influence process. Steric effect contributes more than 20% to the interannual sea level gradually in a belt from the Fujian and Zhejiang coasts to the Korea/Tsushima strait. Especially in the northeast part, its contribution could be up to 60%. While for the local atmospheric process, zonal wind acts as a more important role on sea level than meridional component.

Argo盐度漂移修正及其对全球海平面变化的影响

基于不同机构(SIO、JAM和EN4)发布的多套Argo数据集,分析盐度漂移的时空变化特征。结果表明,2016年以后,3家机构发布的盐度数据集都存在明显的系统性漂移,且不同深度层的盐度漂移幅度差异较大。为此,基于赤池信息量准则(Akaike information criterion,AIC)提出面向特定深度层盐度漂移的多项式修正方法。该方法能有效修正0~2000m深度范围内Argo数据集的盐度偏差,使得2005~2021年的GMSL预算平衡偏差减少约43%。盐度漂移具有复杂的空间关联性,全球盐容海平面变化趋势存在显著的空间分布差异,北大西洋区域最为显著,修正后其空间分布趋于一致。

Climate Change Science &Propaganda

This article addresses the relationship between science and propaganda using the Climate Change controversy as a study model. The United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the recognized leader on this model issuing multiple Assessment Reports. This review begins with a discussion of the basics—what is propaganda and how does it work, followed by whether the IPCC adopted or rejected it. Next explored is how propaganda can be seamlessly fused into “report writing” in a way that arouses and makes interesting humdrum details. Some unexpected results emerged from current and historical observation data involving the Greenhouse theory, CO2 sources, ocean pH, sea levels, and ice balances. The final section confronts whether “a point of view” constrains objectivity in favor of outcome. The overall conclusion is that the earth is boringly healthy.

联合CTD、海底地形和ARGO数据构建北太平洋深海时变温度模型

面对深海温度实测数据不足的现实,本文依据CTD温度剖面随海深变化特性对北太平洋海域重新划分区域,联合海底地形和Argo数据构建了2005—2020年北太平洋深海月均格网化温度模型,并反演了其深海比容海平面变化。试验结果表明:(1)本文构建的深海温度剖面均值数学模型相较于其他数学模型与CTD实测数据的差异小1~2个数量级,更能准确地反映各区域深海温度剖面随海深变化特性;(2)本文构建的深海温度模型与CTD实测数据、EN4的差异最大不超过0.20℃和0.60℃,平均差异不超过0.03℃和0.50℃,标准差不超过0.06℃和0.002℃;(3)基于该温度模型和EN4计算得到的北太平洋深海比容海平面变化趋势基本一致,其中2005—2010年上升趋势分别为0.52±0.09和0.73±0.11 mm/a,2010—2020年上升趋势分别为0.02±0.03和-0.01±0.01 mm/a,与相关文献基于热含量变化研究结论一致,整个研究时间段内上升趋势分别为0.11±0.17和0.09±0.11 mm/a。这说明本文构建的深海温度模型数据具有一定的可靠性,对于细化区域海平面平衡方程成因变化具有一定的参考价值。

琼东南盆地梅山组海底扇成因演化特征与勘探建议

梅山组海底扇作为中央峡谷水道之外最引人注目的大型储集体,是琼东南盆地尤其是深水区常规碎屑岩领域下一步最为重要的勘探对象。总结了琼东南盆地各凹陷钻井资料所揭示的梅山组海底扇差异分布现象,通过研究区大陆架发育特征、陆架坡折带发育特征,结合物源供给与优势海流方向,首次从宏观格局解释了琼东南盆地中央坳陷带不同凹陷海底扇发育地质背景的差异及成因,提出乐东凹陷梅山组大型海底扇主物源来自东北方向海南隆起。通过细化中中新世大海退内部次级海平面旋回特征,首次建立了本区梅山组层序充填与海平面旋回的精确对应关系,从层序成因角度厘清了梅山组各期次海底扇发育演化特征与凹陷级别的有利储层展布特征,并据此提出相应的勘探建议,指出乐东凹陷梅山组中-晚期海底扇储层风险低,是梅山组海底扇领域突破的首选区带;陵水凹陷早期海底扇圈闭有效性较好,是梅山组海底扇大规模成藏的有利勘探方向。该研究为梅山组海底扇领域的勘探部署提供了新思路。

近四年全球海水质量变化及其时空特征分析

本文利用卫星重力、卫星测高和海洋温盐数据反演计算全球海水质量变化,并分析其时空变化特征.卫星重力数据利用2003年1月～2006年12月的GRACE月时变重力场球谐系数,同时考虑替换一阶项和C_(20)项,并进行了相关误差滤波、高斯滤波和陆地水文信号泄漏改正,计算得到海洋等效水高变化;利用相同时间跨度的卫星测高数据和海洋温度、盐度水文观测数据,计算全球海平面变化和比容海平面变化,反演得到海水质量变化.反演的两种海水质量变化的年际变化特征一致性较好.三种数据得到的长期趋势变化,与1993～2003年的结果相比,可以看出,海水质量变化加速,并已成为全球海平面上升的主要因素.

湖北宜昌地区奥陶纪层序地层及扬子地区五峰组沉积环境的讨论

运用露头层序地层学原理与方法，将宜昌地区奥陶系划分为三个Ⅱ型层序，并阐述了各层序的体系域特征和形成的沉积动力学机制以及海平面变化对沉积、生物迁移及环境的控制作用。认为研究区奥陶纪存在三个海平面变化旋回：第一个旋回发生于两河口期早期至晚期；第二个旋回发生于两河口期末期至大湾期初期；第三个旋回发生于大湾期早期至五峰期末期，并识别出两个平衡型碳酸盐岩体系。研究结果表明，宜昌地区下奥陶统生物礁均形成于高海平面时期，五峰期早期为海平面的最大上升期，五峰页岩属典型的凝缩段沉积，观音桥段形成于高海平面时期。在对五峰组沉积速率、生态及沉积特征等分析基础上。

IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化

利用CCSM3(Community Climate System Model version 3)气候系统模式模拟20世纪海平面变化,在IPCC SRES A2(IPCC,2001)情景假设下预测21世纪全球海平面长期趋势变化。模拟显示20世纪海平面上升约4.0cm,且存在0.004 8mm/a2的加速度,这个结果仅为热盐比容的贡献。在A2情景假设下,21世纪海平面上升存在很大的区域特征,呈纬向带状分布;总体上北冰洋上升大,南大洋高纬度海区上升小,大西洋上升值比太平洋的大;整个21世纪全球平均比容海平面上升了约30cm,且呈加速上升的趋势。同时发现,中深层水温度和盐度变化对区域比容海平面变化具有重要贡献。北太平洋增暖主要集中在上层700m以内,而北大西洋的增暖可达2 500m的深度,南大洋南极绕极流海区热盐变化则是发生在整个深度。

对我国西南地区河谷深厚覆盖层成因机理的新认识

近年来,在我国水能资源开发过程中,发现各河流现代河床以下普遍堆积厚达数十米甚至上百米的松散堆积物。河谷深厚覆盖层的存在,不仅严重制约了工程坝址的选择,影响相关流域水电资源的开发利用,也给坝工设计带来巨大的困难。由于深厚覆盖层埋藏于现代河床之下,其形成年代一般先于一二级阶地,有悖于河流发育演化的常理,其成因一直令人费解。首次将河谷深切和深厚堆积事件与全球气候变化、海平面升降运动、地壳运动等有机地联系起来,并提出冰期、间冰期全球海平面大幅度升降,是导致河流深切成谷并形成深厚堆积的主要原因的新观点。在此基础上,引入层序地层学原理,从理论上较好地解释了全球气候变化导致海平面和河流侵蚀基准面大幅变化,并产生河谷深切和深厚堆积的原因和过程。最后,进一步将沿河大型古滑坡的孕育和发生与河谷深切事件相联系,提出沿河大型古滑坡是在河谷深切期因前缘临空较好而形成的新观点,从而对沿河古滑坡前缘剪出口高程往往低于现代河床数十米的原因给出了较合理的解释。

新疆库鲁克塔格地区早寒武世磷质岩的形成条件

根据地层层序与岩石学特征,对新疆库鲁克塔格地区下寒武统西山布拉克组磷质岩的形成环境,物质来源和形成机理进行了分析。认为本区磷质岩形成于从浪基面附近至氧化界面附近一个较宽泛的环境带中,具有热液和生物两个方面的物质来源。来自火山和生物的含磷物质由上升洋流带至沉积地点经化学沉淀形成磷质岩。而后又经历了水流与波浪的作用,以及重力产生的滑塌事件的改造。西山布拉克组沉积时期经历了三次海平面的升降变化,磷质岩是早期海平面变化的产物。沉积过程发生在高级别的海侵背景之下。

深水碳酸盐沉积研究进展

深水碳酸盐沉积包括深水重力流作用形成的异地沉积和非重力流沉积 ,在非重力流沉积中又有深水牵引流 (等深流、内波、内潮汐等 )沉积和静态原地碳酸盐沉积。深水碳酸盐沉积与重力流及等深流活动有关 ,也受控于表层水碳酸盐产率、陆源物质的稀释作用及深水对碳酸盐的溶解作用。大量研究表明 ,深水碳酸盐沉积对海平面升降与气候变化响应明显 ,无论是重力流或非重力流沉积均有体现 ,通过深水碳酸盐沉积研究可以提取地质历史时期环境变化的信息 ,同时 ,某些深水碳酸盐沉积岩中蕴藏着丰富的石油、天然气和其他沉积矿产。由此开展此项研究具有重要的理论和实际意义。

基于多卫星融合数据的海平面特征分析

利用1993—2008年法国空间局的AVISO多卫星融合高度计资料,采用随机动态、EOF等方法分析全球海平面变化的长期趋势、变化幅度以及季节变化的空间分布特征.结果表明:(a)1993—2008年间太平洋海平面呈西升东降的形态,印度洋绝大部分海区海平面呈上升趋势,大西洋除湾流流域外的其他海区海平面的长期趋势以上升为主;(b)全球海平面变化存在显著的年变化和半年变化等季节信号,无论是半球平均还是洋盆平均,北半球海平面季节变化的振幅明显大于南半球,中纬度海区季节变化的振幅最大;(c)北印度洋海平面季节变化的振幅高于同纬度带的北太平洋和北大西洋;(d)太平洋、印度洋、大西洋三大洋受西边界流、赤道流系等强流影响的海域海平面变化幅度大于周围海域;(e)赤道海域各大洋东、西边界和大洋内区海平面变化不同步,可能受赤道海洋波动的影响较大;(f)厄尔尼诺年,西太平洋暖池和赤道太平洋中部海平面明显降低,赤道东太平洋海域海平面明显升高,赤道印度洋海域东、西边界的海平面变化与其相反.

南海珠江深水扇系统的形成特征与控制因素

到2001年底,已从全球六大洲18个盆地大于水深500m地域发现580亿桶油当量,90%的油气储量发现于深水浊流沉积体系,这是与近三十年来在全球范围内对深水海域的不懈探索与科学技术进步有着密切的关系。南海珠江深水扇系统特指广布于南海珠江口盆地近海海域上第三系深水沉积物,主体位于盆地南缘珠二坳陷,属与陆架边缘三角洲体系相联系的、发育于低水位时期的深水沉积系统,其形成具有重要的地质背景,它处于若干重大地质事件的交汇地域,具对应于青藏高原隆升的沉积响应,有独特的由持续沉降所体现的纵向叠置特征,并因应于全球海平面升降变化、呈幕式推进的海侵型沉积系列,构成极为理想的油气储盖组合。因此,以时间耦合、空间耦合与地球动力学耦合为扭带,用整体、系统的论点研讨与分析南海深水扇系统的形成特征,获得一球五源(缘)是南海深水扇系统的主控因素的结论。

快速气候变化与高分辨率的深海沉积记录

通过高分辨率海洋古气候序列研究快速气候变化的机制是大洋钻探ODP及相关的国际海洋古全球变化研究IMAGES的重要贡献。研究发现,千年、百年尺度的古气候事件具有全球性,不仅见于冰芯和北大西洋高纬区,也发生在热带太平洋等其它海区和地球的其它部分;不仅见于末次冰期,也发生在全新世和早、中更新世。尽管这些快速气候变化的原因和机理尚无定论,但至少说明存在有别于冰期/间冰期冰盖体积变化的因素(如热带过程、太阳活动等)在起作用,从根本上改变了学术界对地球气候环境系统历史的认识。