Deformation critical threshold estimation of Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam with time-varying grey model

The structural behavior of the Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam is primarily influenced by external loads and time-varying characteristics of dam concrete and foundation rock mass during long-term operation. According to overload testing with a geological model and the measured time series of installed perpendicular lines, the space and time evolution characteristics of the arch dam structure were analyzed, and its mechanical performance was evaluated. Subsequently, the deformation centroid of the deflective curve was suggested to indicate the magnitude and unique distribution rules for a typical dam section using the measured deformation values at multi-monitoring points. The ellipse equations of the critical ellipsoid for the centroid were derived from the historical measured time series. Hydrostatic and seasonal components were extracted from the measured deformation values with a traditional statistical model, and residuals were adopted as a grey component. A time-varying grey model was developed to accurately predict the evolution of the deformation behavior of the ultrahigh arch dam during future operation. In the developed model, constant coefficients were modified so as to be time-dependent functions, and the prediction accuracy was significantly improved through introduction of a forgetting factor. Finally, the critical threshold was estimated, and predicted ellipsoids were derived for the Xiaowan arch dam. The findings of this study can provide technical support for safety evaluation of the actual operation of ultrahigh arch dams and help to provide early warning of abnormal changes.

Deformation warning index for reinforced concrete dam based on structural health monitoring data and numerical simulation

The material mechanical parameters of the dam body and foundation will change when a dam is reinforced during the aging process.This causes significant changes in the structural state of the project and makes it difficult to ensure its structural safety.In this study,a new deformation warning index for reinforced concrete dams was developed according to the prototype monitoring data,statistical models,three-dimensional finite element model(FEM)numerical simulation,and the critical conditions of the dam structure.A statistical model was established to separate the water pressure component.Then,a three-dimensional FEM of the reinforced concrete dam was constructed to simulate the water pressure component.Furthermore,the deformation components that affected the mechanical parameters of the dam under the same amount of reservoir water level change were separated and quantified accurately.In addition,the method for inversion of comprehensive mechanical parameters after dam reinforcement was used.The influence mechanisms of the deformation behavior of concrete dams under the reservoir water level and temperature changes were investigated.A new deformation warning index was developed by combining the forward-simulated critical water pressure component and temperature component in the period of extreme temperature decrease with the aging component separated by the statistical model.The new deformation warning index considers the structural state of the dam before and after reinforcement and links the structural strength criterion and the deformation evolution mechanisms.It provides a theoretical foundation and decision support for long-term service and operation management of reinforced dams.

Determination of Monitoring Control Value for Concrete Gravity Dam Spatial Deformation Based on POT Model

Deformation can directly reflect the working behavior of the dam,so determining the deformation monitoring control value can effectively monitor the safety of dam operation.The traditional dam deformation monitoring control value only considers the single measuring point.In order to overcome the limitation,this paper presents a new method to determine the monitoring control value for concrete gravity dam based on the deformations of multi-measuring points.A dam’s comprehensive deformation displacement is determined by the measured values at different measuring points on the positive inverted vertical line and the corresponding weight of eachmeasuring point.The projection pursuit method(PPM)combined with the grey wolf optimization(GWO)algorithm is used to determine the weight of each measuring point according to the spatial correlation distribution characteristics of dam deformation.The peaks over threshold(POT)model based on the extreme value theory is adopted to determine the monitoring control value with the obtained dam comprehensive deformation displacement.In addition,the POTmodel is improved with the automatic threshold determinationmethod based on the 3σcriterion in probability theory and the GWO algorithm,which can avoid subjectivity and randomness in determining the threshold.The results of the engineering application show the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method.

Effect of Seismic Permanent Deformation on Safety and Stability of Earth-Rock Dam Slope

In order to study the effect of seismic permanent deformation on the safety and stability of earth-rock dam, the permanent deformation is considered as the non-design permanent load, and the stress-strain hysteresis curve is also considered when the earth is under cyclic load. The research work can make the calculation results of plastic collapse more accurate by including the effect of the post-earthquake degree of plastic deformation on the stability of the earth-rock dam, and the dam safety factor decreases from 2.50 to 1.90 after the magnitude-8 earthquake. Moreover, the research work will also improve the design of the earth-rock dam under abnormal operating conditions.

Modeling dam deformation using independent component regression method

In the application of regression analysis method to model dam deformation, the ill-condition problem occurred in coefficient matrix always prevents an accurate modeling mainly due to the multicollinearity of the variables. Independent component regression （ICR） was proposed to model the dam deformation and identify the physical origins of the deformation. Simulation experiment shows that ICR can successfully resolve the problem of ill-condition and produce a reliable deformation model. After that, the method is applied to model the deformation of the Wuqiangxi Dam in Hunan province, China. The result shows that ICR can not only accurately model the deformation of the dam, but also help to identify the physical factors that affect the deformation through the extracted independent components.

Application of neural network merging model in dam deformation analysis

In order to improve the prediction accuracy and test the generalization ability of the dam deformation analysis model, the back-propagation（BP） neural network model for dam deformation analysis is studied, and the merging model is built based on the neural network BP algorithm and the traditional statistical model. The three models mentioned above are calculated and analyzed according to the long-term deformation observation data in Chencun Dam. The analytical results show that the average prediction accuracies of the statistical model and the BP neural network model are ~ 0.477 and ＋- 0.390 mm, respectively, while the prediction accuracy of the merging model is ~0. 318 mm, which is improved by 33% and 18% compared to the other two models, respectively. And the merging model has a better generalization ability and broad applicability.

Numerical stress-deformation analysis of cut-off wall in clay-core rockfill dam on thick overburden

The cut-off wall in a clay-core rockfill dam built on a thick overburden layer is subjected to a large compressive pressure under the action of the loads such as the dead weight of both the dam and the overburden layer, the frictional force induced by the differential settlement between the cut-off wall and surrounding soils, and the water pressure. Thus, reduction of the stress of the cut-off wall has become one of the main problems for consideration in engineering design. In this paper, numerical analysis of a core rockfill dam built on a thick overburden layer was conducted and some factors influencing the stress-strain behaviors of the cut-off wall were investigated. The factors include the improvement of the overburden layer, the modeling approach for interfacial contact between the cut-off wall and surrounding soils, the modulus of the cut-off wall concrete, and the connected pattern between the cut-off wall and the clay core. The result shows that improving the overburden layer,selecting plastic concrete with a low modulus and high strength, and optimizing the connection between the cut-off wall and the clay core of the dam are effective measures of reducing the deformations and compressive stresses of the cut-off wall. In addition, both the Goodman element and the mud-layer element are suitable for simulating the interfacial contact between the cut-off wall and surrounding soils.

Long-term deformation analysis of Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam based on response surface method and improved genetic algorithm

Due to the size effects of rockfill materials, the settlement difference between numerical simulation and in situ monitoring of rockfill dams is a topic of general concern.The constitutive model parameters obtained from laboratory triaxial tests often underestimate the deformation of high rockfill dams.Therefore, constitutive model parameters obtained by back analysis were used to calculate and predict the long-term deformation of rockfill dams.Instead of using artificial neural networks (ANNs), the response surface method (RSM) was employed to replace the finite element simulation used in the optimization iteration.Only 27 training samples were required for RSM, improving computational efficiency compared with ANN, which required 300 training samples.RSM can be used to describe the relationship between the constitutive model parameters and dam settlements.The inversion results of the Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD) show that the calculated settlements agree with the measured data, indicating the accuracy and efficiency of RSM.

Cloud-Verhulst hybrid prediction model for dam deformation under uncertain conditions

Uncertainties existing in the process of dam deformation negatively influence deformation prediction. However, existing deformation pre- diction models seldom consider uncertainties. In this study, a cloud-Verhulst hybrid prediction model was established by combing a cloud model with the Verhulst model. The expectation, one of the cloud characteristic parameters, was obtained using the Verhulst model, and the other two cloud characteristic parameters, entropy and hyper-entropy, were calculated by introducing inertia weight. The hybrid prediction model was used to predict the dam deformation in a hydroelectric project. Comparison of the prediction results of the hybrid prediction model with those of a traditional statistical model and the monitoring values shows that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy than the traditional sta- tistical model. It provides a new approach to predicting dam deformation under uncertain conditions.

An intelligent singular value diagnostic method for concrete dam deformation monitoring

Extracting implicit anomaly information through deformation monitoring data mining is highly significant to determining dam safety status.As an intelligent singular value diagnostic method for concrete dam deformation monitoring, shallow neural network models result in local optima and overfitting, and require manual feature extraction.To obtain an intelligent singular value diagnosis model that can be used for dam safety monitoring, a convolutional neural network (CNN) model that has advantages of deep learning (DL), such as automatic feature extraction, good model fitting, and strong generalizability, was trained in this study.An engineering example shows that the predicted result of the intelligent singular value diagnostic method based on CNN is highly compatible with the confusion matrix, with a precision of 92.41%, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) coordinates of (0.03, 0.97), an area-under-curve (AUC) value of 0.99, and an F1-score of 0.91.Moreover, the performance of the CNN model is better than those of models based on decision tree (DT) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) methods.Therefore, the intelligent singular value diagnostic method based on CNN is simple to operate, highly intelligent, and highly reliable, and it has a high potential for application in engineering.

Stability and reinforcement analyses of high arch dams by considering deformation effects

The strict definition and logical description of the concept of structure stability and failure are presented. The criterion of structure stability is developed based on plastic complementary energy and its variation. It is presented that the principle of minimum plastic complementary energy is the combination of structure equilibrium, coordination condition of deformation and constitutive relationship. Based on the above arguments, the deformation reinforcement theory is developed. The structure global stability can be described by the relationship between the global degree of safety of structure and the plastic complementary energy. Correspondingly, the new idea is used in the evaluations of global stability, anchorage force of dam-toe, fracture of dam-heel and treatment of faults of high arch dams in China. The results show that the deformation reinforcement theory provides a uniform and practical theoretical framework and a valuable solution for the analysis of global stability, dam-heel cracking, dam-toe anchorage and reinforcement of faults of high arch dams and their foundations.

Comparative Study on Deformation Prediction Models of Wuqiangxi Concrete Gravity Dam Based on Monitoring Data

The deformation prediction models of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam are developed,including two statistical models and a deep learning model.In the statistical models,the reliable monitoring data are firstly determined with Lahitte criterion;then,the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models for deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam are constructed in terms of the reliable monitoring data,and the factors of water pressure,temperature and time effect are considered in the models;finally,according to the monitoring data from 2006 to 2020 of five typical measuring points including J23(on dam section 24^(#)),J33(on dam section 4^(#)),J35(on dam section 8^(#)),J37(on dam section 12^(#)),and J39(on dam section 15^(#))located on the crest of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam,the settlement curves of the measuring points are obtained with the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models.A deep learning model is developed based on long short-term memory(LSTM)recurrent neural network.In the LSTM model,two LSTMlayers are used,the rectified linear unit function is adopted as the activation function,the input sequence length is 20,and the random search is adopted.The monitoring data for the five typical measuring points from 2006 to 2017 are selected as the training set,and the monitoring data from 2018 to 2020 are taken as the test set.From the results of case study,we can find that(1)the good fitting results can be obtained with the two statistical models;(2)the partial least squares regression algorithm can solve the model with high correlation factors and reasonably explain the factors;(3)the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model increases with increasing the amount of training data.In the deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam,the LSTM model is suggested when there are sufficient training data,while the partial least squares regression method is suggested when the training data are insufficient.

Deformation coordination analysis of CC-RCC combined dam structures under dynamic loads

A combined dam structure using different concrete materials offers many practical benefits.There are several real-world cases where largevolume heterogeneous concrete materials have been used together.From the engineering design standpoint,it is crucial to understand the deformation coordination characteristics and mechanical properties of large-volume heterogeneous concrete,which affect dam safety and stability.In this study,a large dam facility was selected for a case study,and various design schemes of the combined dam structure were developed by changing the configurations of material zoning and material types for a given dam shape.Elastoplastic analysis of the damfoundation-reservoir system for six schemes was carried out under dynamic conditions,in which the concrete damaged plasticity(CDP)model,the Lagrangian finite element formulation,and a surface-to-surface contact model were utilized.To evaluate the mechanical properties of zoning interfaces and coordination characteristics,the vertical distribution of the first principal stress at the longitudinal joint was used as the critical index of deformation coordination control,and the overall deformation and damage characteristics of the dam were also investigated.Through a comparative study of the design schemes,an optimal scheme of the combined dam structure was identified:large-volume roller-compacted concrete(RCC)is recommended for the dam body upstream of the longitudinal joint,and high-volume fly ash conventional concrete(CC)for the dam body downstream of the longitudinal joint.This study provides engineers with a reference basis for combined dam structure design.

Seismic Deformation and Seismic Resistance Analysis of Shapai Roller Compacted Concrete Arch Dam Based on Field Monitoring and Dynamic Finite Element Method

Shapai Roller Compacted Concrete(RCC) Arch Dam is the highest RCC arch dam of the 20th century in the world with a maximum height of 132m,and it is the only concrete arch dam near the epicentre of Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th,2008.The seismic damage to the dam and the resistance of the dam has drawn great attention.This paper analyzed the response and resistance of the dam to the seismic wave using numerical simulations with comparison to the monitored data.The field investigation after the earthquake and analysis of insitu data record showed that there was only little variation in the opening size at the dam and foundation interface,transverse joints and inducing joints before and after the earthquake.The overall stability of the dam abutment resistance body was quite good except a little relaxation was observed.The results of the dynamic finite element method(FEM) showed that the sizes of the openings obtained from the numerical modeling are comparable with the monitored values,and the change of the opening size is in millimeter range.This study revealed that Shapai arch dam exhibited high seismic resistance and overload capacity in the Wenchuan earthquake event.The comparison of the monitored and simulated results showed that the numerical method applied in this paper well simulated the seismic response of the dam.The method could be useful in the future application on the safety evaluation of RCC dams.

Health diagnosis of ultrahigh arch dam performance using heterogeneous spatial panel vector model

Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and plastic complementary energy norm to assess the structural safety of arch dams.A comprehensive analysis was conducted,focusing on differences among conventional methods in characterizing the structural behavior of the Xiaowan arch dam in China.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the measured performance of the Xiaowan dam were explored,including periodicity,convergence,and time-effect characteristics.These findings revealed the governing mechanism of main factors.Furthermore,a heterogeneous spatial panel vector model was developed,considering both common factors and specific factors affecting the safety and performance of arch dams.This model aims to comprehensively illustrate spatial heterogeneity between the entire structure and local regions,introducing a specific effect quantity to characterize local deformation differences.Ultimately,the proposed model was applied to the Xiaowan arch dam,accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dam performance.Additionally,the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of environmental load effects on different parts of the dam were reasonably interpreted.Validation of the model prediction enhances its credibility,leading to the formulation of health diagnosis criteria for future long-term operation of the Xiaowan dam.The findings not only enhance the predictive ability and timely control of ultrahigh arch dams'performance but also provide a crucial basis for assessing the effectiveness of engineering treatment measures.

GPS AUTOMATIC MONITORING SYSTEM FOR OUTSIDE DEFORMATION OF GEHEYAN DAM ON THE QINGJIANG RIVER

In this paper,the background of developing GPS Automatic Monitoring System for outside deformation of Geheyan Dam is described concisely.The framework,precision and features of the system are stated in detail.Finally,the prospective application of the system is introduced.

Deformation Monitoring of Dam Using GPS:Case Study Letsibogo Dam,Botswana

All civil engineering structures are susceptible for deterioration over a period of time after been constructed.Dams,bridges,tunnels,high rise buildings deteriorate due to different factors such as stress,unstable slopes,low foundation shearing strength,settlement,expansion from temperature changes,and age.As a results of these effects,long and short term deformation monitoring of these structures is very important to validate the construction specifications and safety measures.Long term defonnation monitoring is mainly based on measurements of horizontal and vertical movement of the entire structure to ensure that every part of the structure is stable.In this work we present the first deformation monitoring of Letsibogo dam in Botswana by establishing baseline points using Global positioning Systems(GPS)which is capable of detecting structural movement in three dimension.The results obtained shows that the established reference and monitoring points measured by using GPS are reliable with standard deviations of 0.004m and 0.007m in x and y respectively and horizontal displacement of 1cm.In addition,the correlation coefficient for the observations was p=0 which confirms that the GPS measurements of reference and monitoring points are correlated.The position accuracy obtained is suitable for dam deformation monitoring for the first epoch which is expected to take place in 2020.

Parameter Variations of Identified Model for Static Deformation Analysis of Arch Dam

The structural health monitoring of a dam is important for maintaining the safe operation and longevity of the dam system. The structural health of a large dam can be monitored from the measured static deformation. This paper presents an investigation of the parameter variations of the identified model of the measured long-term static deformation for the structural health monitoring of Fui-Tsui Dam, which is located in a very active seismic zone of Taiwan. The measured static deformation is characterized as a function of the measured physical parameters, including the effects of hydrostatic pressure and temperature variation. The identified parameters, associated with the effects of hydrostatic pressure and temperature variation, change with environmental factors, such as flooding, earthquake and foundation change.

The Deformation and Stress Analysis of Na Ba Reservoir Concrete Face Rock-Fill Dam

Based on the APDL （ANSYS Parametric Design Language） and combined with the actual project related to parameters of filling material, imported Duncan-Chang constitutive model which has been widely applied in soil mass and rock-fill in the ANSYS software. With the three-dimensional nonlinear finite element analysis by the mid-point incremental method, what have been computed are the deformation and stress analysis ofNa Ba reservoir CFRD （Concrete Face Rock-fill Dam） in filling period. The calculation results provide practical reference for the dam during construction safety filling stress and deformation analysis and real-time monitoring.

Dynamic Risk Assessment Index System for Earth-Rock Dam during Construction

During the construction of earth-rock dam,mutual exclusive construction goals such as quality,safety,progress and cost all have influences on each other,with risk factors being everchanging as the construction progresses.Accurate identification of the risk factors,as well as clearing any possible effect that any risk factors might have on the construction project is the key and foundation to our cooperative control of the construction goals.According to the construction planning of earth-rock dam,the hall3 D structure was used to identify the potential changes of risk factors,and the possible means of any risk factors to interfere with the construction goals.The dynamic risk assessment index system is established by deploying the WBS-RBS(work breakdown structurerisk breakdown structure)method,aiming at the construction goals of earth-rock dam.The case study shows that the index system is very effective at risk management of earth-rock dam during construction,and relatively practicable.