Assessment of rural sustainable development and analysis and prediction of obstacles and coupled coordinated development:A case study of Zaozhuang City

In China,the Innovation Demonstration Zone for the National Sustainable Development Agenda is a key initiative for executing the United Nations(UN)2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.The Zone also plays critical roles in addressing the developmental bottlenecks that China faces and sharing Chinese insights into global sustainable development efforts.On July 15,2022,the State Council endorsed the Zone’s establishment in Zaozhuang City,Shandong Province,where it focuses on innovation-led sustainable development in rural areas.Research into the levels,impediments,interdependencies,and evolutionary trends of rural sustainable development is crucial.Therefore,this research aimed to assist in comprehensively assessing developmental challenges and facilitating the harmonious advancement of social,economic,and environmental aspects in rural areas.In pursuit of the three fundamental dimensions of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),namely development’s drivers,quality,and equity,this study was grounded in China’s national Rural Revitalization Strategy and the demands of sustainable development strategies.It also aligns with the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the associated SDG indicators.Focusing on four key areas,namely production elements,natural elements,social elements,and rural governance,this study developed an evaluation index system for assessing the level of rural sustainable development.It employed a range of analytical models,including the game theory-based combination empowerment method,barrier degree model,coupling degree model,coupling coordination degree model,and gray prediction GM(1,1)model,to analyze the status and evolving trends of rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang City from 2015 to 2022.The key findings were as follows:①Relative to the baseline year 2015,the sustainable development level in Zaozhuang’s rural areas has shifted toward an improved state overall.②The primary barrier to achieving rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang is the city’s rural governance system.③While the components of rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang are in the early stages of both basic and moderate coordination,an overall enhancement has occurred in their integrative coordination.④Between 2023 and 2025,the level of integrative coordination in Zaozhuang is expected to rise steadily.However,reaching a state of advanced coordination will require additional time for development.

Method for Evaluating the Degrees of Land Use Sustainability of Mountainous County and its Application in Yunnan Province,China

The evaluation of sustainable land use is the key issue in the field of studying the sustainable land utilization. In general analysis, the sustainable land use is evaluated respectively from its ecological sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability in China and other countries in recent years. Although this evaluation is an important work, it seems insufficient and hard to comprehensively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability. Thus, to make up this deficiency, this paper brings forward the evaluation indexes, which make it possible to quantitatively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability, namely, the concept of ＂degrees of overall land use sustainability＂ （Dos）, and research and measurement development of the method of and calculation in Dos. Taking the evaluation of the degree of land use sustainability in county regions of Yunnan Province as the actual example for analysis, results are basically as follows： 1） The degree of land use sustainability （Dos） is the ration index to organically and systematically integrate the degree of ecological friendliness （DeF）, the degree of economic viability （Dev） and the degree of social acceptability （Dsa）, able to comprehensively reflect the whole sustainability degree of regional land use 2） Based on the value of Dos, the grading system and standard for the sustainability of land use may be established and totally divided into five grades, namely, the high-degree sustainability, middle-degree sustainability, low-degree sustainability, conditional sustainability and non-sustainability. Meanwhile, the standard for distinguishing sustainability grades has also been confirmed so as to determine the nature of sustainability degrees in different grades. This makes the possibility for the combination of nature determination with ration in research result and provides with the scientific guideline and decision-making gist for better implementation of sustainable land use strategy. 3） The practice in evaluation of sustainability degree in county regional land use in Yunnan shows that the value of the degree of land use sustainability （Dos） of whole Yunnan Province is only 58.39, belonging to the grade of low-degree sustainability. Two thirds of counties in the whole province represent the grade of ＂conditional sustainability＂ and ＂non-sustainability＂ in the sustainability of land use. Among these counties, 11.11 % shows ＂non- sustainability＇. The lowest degree of land use sustainability appears especially in the middle plateau mountain region of Northeast Yunnan, where the value of Dos in most counties （districts） is below 40 %, belonging to the grade of ＂non-sustainability＂. The sustainability degree in the karst mountainous region in lower-middle plateau mountain region in Southeast Yunnan is generally low and the value of sustainability degree （Dos） in most of the counties （cities and districts） is below 55. The value of sustainability degree （Dos） in most of the counties （cities and districts） in the north, west, northwest and southwest parts of Yunnan is below 55. This article also analyzes the reasons of low degree of sustainability in land use in Yunnan and puts forward the countermeasures to increase the degree of sustainability in land use in the whole province.

Extenics Model for Evaluating Vulnerable Degree of Regional Sustaining Hazard Body

The effect of hazard was determined by the dangerous degree of hazard factor—environment and the vulnerable degree of sustaining body. The research into the latter is of importance for the hazard theory and the formation of laws on the mitigation of natural hazards. The way to evaluate the vulnerable degree is the foundation of and the key to the research. In this paper, the extenics model is established to do this job.

Evaluating rural sustainable land use from a system perspective based on the ecosystem service value

Rural sustainable land use(RSLU) is important to China’s implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals and the goals of rural revitalization strategy in China. Research on RSLU is key to understanding the impact of human activities on rural sustainability. This paper explored the evaluation method of RSLU from a system perspective based on the ecosystem service value(ESV). Three systems were proposed for consideration when conducting this evaluation method. One was the sustainability of the land system, the other was the sustainability of the ecoeconomic system, and the rest was the sustainability of the land-eco-economy system. Indicators including(1) land use intensity and land system stability,(2) gross domestic production(GDP), ESV, and the eco-economic harmony degree(EEHD), and(3) coupling degree and coupling coordination degree were used to analyze the sustainability of the land, eco-economic, and landeco-economic systems, respectively. An empirical research on Yanhe ecovillage was conducted and the study period extended from 2008 to 2020. The results showed that forest land had always accounted for more than 81.20% of the total area in Yanhe eco-village from 2008 to 2020, which greatly influenced land system stability and restricted economic development. This feature contrasted with RSLU. The total ESV of Yanhe eco-village declined by 1.60×106CNY during 2008–2020 because of land use changes. The EEHD was –0.01, which presented that there was a very slight unharmonious between ecology and economy. The coupling degree and coupling coordination degree showed that the development between the land and ecoeconomic systems exhibited a coupling coordination relationship. The results indicated that ecology and economy in Yanhe eco-village will change significantly in response to land use changes in rural areas, which further revealed the dynamic linkage between human beings and nature. Moreover, opposite variation tendencies in land system stability and ESV revealed that the contradiction between the high stability of the land system and well development of the eco-economic system. The results of this study implied that it is necessary and useful to integrate ESV into land management to achieve RSLU.

Assessment of Sustainable Development System in Suihua City, China

Sustainable development is a complex and systemic issue. It is essential to study it by the component analysis method from the view of system science. The urban developmental sustainability is one of focuses that people has paid more attention to, however, little common understanding how to measure and evaluate the sustainability has been gotten. In this paper, a framework is designed to evaluate the developmental sustainability of Suihua City, Heilongiiang Province in China from the aspects of economy, society, population, resources and environment. We adopt the Principal Components Analysis （PCA） to decrease dimensions and simplify the original indexes into 12 indexes. Also, the hierarchy and comprehensive multiple-criterion evaluative methods are employed to assess the sustainable development system in Suihua City. Then, the weights of indexes are attained by Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method. Furthermore, urban comprehensive development level, developmental sustainability, coordinate degree are calculated and analyzed. By analyzing, we know the fluctuation of development level of subsystem, especially resources and environment subsystem, is acute. The comprehensive development level of sustainable development system in Suihua has been on the rise since 1999. That results from the effect of traditional economic development mode with high energy-consumed being decreased in the city after 1999. At the same time, it is obvious that there was an instability of development level in Suihua City during 1990-2002, the status＇trend was more harmonious in 1999-2002. with a turn in 1998, and the development could be sustainable,

Coupling analysis of the major impact on sustainable development of the typical arid region of Turpan in Northwest China

Analyzing the sustainable development of a given region can provide an important reference and guide for future orientation.The study selects Turpan(including Gaochang District,Shanshan County,and Toksun County)in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of Northwest China as the study area and first investigates the essence of regional sustainable development.Based on the relevant data of the population,economy,and environment of Turpan from 2002 to 2018,we constructed an evaluation index system for three dimensions,namely,the population,economy,and environment,and analyzed them systematically.Specifically,we quantitatively calculated the comprehensive evaluation index,coupling degree,and coupling coordination degree of the sustainable development system of the study area.The study finds that Turpan has become increasingly sustainable and orderly;the development level has continually improved from near imbalance to positive coordination.During the study period,the government has adopted appropriate models and paths to promote positive interactions among the population,economy,and environment based on engineering techniques and ecological means.The results show that the coupling coordination degree has increased from 0.3692 to 0.8894 during the period 2002–2018,which reflects the actual situation of Turpan and indicates that the proposed analysis method can effectively measure and evaluate the level of sustainable development in this region.Moreover,the study also puts forward main functional zoning of Turpan(i.e.,Gaochang District as an optimized development zone,Shanshan County as a major agricultural production zone,and Toksun County as a key ecological function zone)and regional planning principles based on the population,economic,and environmental coupling analysis for the three jurisdictions in Turpan.

高管团队稳定性与企业ESG评级

ESG评级是推动企业可持续发展的重要动力,是企业长期生存的内在要求,而高管团队在企业长期发展中起着至关重要的作用。基于2010—2019年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,研究了高管团队稳定性对企业ESG评级的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,高管团队稳定性越高,企业ESG评级越高。机制检验显示,高管团队稳定性通过降低企业战略差异度和经营风险提高企业ESG评级。异质性检验结果表明,在内控质量较低、审计质量较低的企业中,高管团队稳定性对企业ESG评级影响效应显著;媒体关注度较低的企业中高管团队稳定性对企业ESG评级的影响更显著。因此,企业要重视高管团队稳定性,采取有效措施降低经营风险,注重ESG信息披露,提升ESG评级,以推动企业可持续发展。

粮食安全与生态可持续耦合协调研究——以长江经济带为例

基于2006—2020年长江经济带省际面板数据,构建粮食安全与生态可持续评价指标体系,利用熵值法测算长江经济带两系统的综合发展水平,运用耦合协调度与障碍度模型分析粮食与生态的耦合协调特征及其障碍因子。结果表明:(1)2006—2020年长江经济带粮食安全综合指数持续上升,生态可持续综合指数波动上升。(2)两系统耦合协调度呈良性增长趋势,表现为“西高东低”的空间分布特征且空间聚集性不断增强。(3)当年造林面积、城市污水日处理能力、居民人均可支配收入、地方财政环境保护支出和财政支农等是制约长江经济带粮食生态协调发展的主要障碍因子。

西北农牧交错区土地可持续利用评价及障碍因子诊断——以吴忠市为例

为探究西北农牧交错区土地可持续利用水平,结合联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)完善传统评价体系,从经济、社会和资源环境3个维度选取30个指标构建评价体系,采用综合指数法、三角模型、障碍度模型分析吴忠市土地可持续利用水平及障碍因子。结果表明,2006—2021年吴忠市土地利用可持续利用水平从不可持续提升到一般可持续;2006—2021年吴忠市土地利用稳定性较好,可持续利用变化趋势稳定,仅2020年稳定性较差;不同土地可持续利用水平下障碍因子不相同。吴忠市土地利用朝着健康的方向发展,现阶段草地覆盖率、农业从业人员比重等是影响吴忠市土地可持续利用主要障碍因子。

基于可持续发展的辽宁沿海经济带港城协调发展研究

为探究可持续发展视角下沿海港口与其所在城市的关系,以辽宁沿海经济带6个港口城市为研究对象,构建港城协调发展水平评价指标体系,运用有序度模型、耦合协调度模型、障碍度模型分析辽宁沿海经济带6个城市港城协调发展水平与障碍因素.结果表明:2013—2021年6个城市的港城协调度整体呈现波动增长的趋势,协调发展的主要制约因素为城市发展水平.基于各城市的经济基础、资源禀赋与障碍因素,提出辽宁沿海经济带港城协调发展的建议.

数字经济与财政可持续性协同发展研究

随着数字经济的快速发展,财政支出结构的优化得到了有效促进,财政资源配置的效率也得到了提升。基于2011-2020年中国省级面板数据,通过构建耦合协调度模型计算各地区数字经济发展与财政可持续性的耦合协调度。在此基础上,进一步运用空间计量模型,对数字经济发展与财政可持续性的系统耦合协调度的驱动因素进行分析,实证结果发现:首先,数字经济发展水平与财政可持续性均呈现出直线上升的趋势,但存在明显的区域异质性。其次,数字经济发展与财政可持续性的耦合协调度低值地区逐渐减少,且东部地区耦合协调度明显高于中西部地区,耦合协调度高的省份都处在东部沿海地区。最后,通过对驱动因素的分析,发现数字经济发展与财政可持续性耦合协调的驱动因素主要有经济发展水平、对外开放水平、产业结构、科技创新水平、政府干预度、财政自主度,其中财政压力与市场化程度对两系统的耦合协调产生消极影响。在数字经济的发展背景下,政府应优化财政支出结构、完善财税政策激励制度,以高效的财政运行机制,促进数字经济与财政可持续性的协调发展。

城市基础设施生态化转型与城市韧性关系研究——基于复杂系统视角

目前中国城市生态化转型与城市韧性提升之间仍然缺乏较为成熟的联结机制,导致了城市建设难以在原有的生态基底上找到韧性发展的着力点。本文基于复杂适应系统理论,构建了城市韧性系统研究框架。利用中国2011-2022年的样本数据,运用系统动力学和耦合协调度模型模拟在不同的城市基础设施转型策略下城市韧性水平的变化过程,得出了分别在两种扰动情景、六种发展战略下的韧性仿真结果。结果表明:①生态转型战略中,飞地新建战略对城市生态、经济、社会韧性的影响作用最明显,其次是“生态>工业>社区”。②单一的延续发展对城市各方面韧性的影响效果最差,而转型战略与协同发展战略的影响效果视具体的扰动情景而定。③对城市韧性整体而言,协同发展战略在短期和慢性扰动视角下的效果最好,而转型发展战略在长期或急性灾害冲击下有更大的发展潜力。④我国整体城市韧性子系统只达到了勉强协调状态,增强三个子系统之间的耦合关联性是未来提升城市生态化转型能力和韧性的有效策略。

山东省农业可持续发展水平测度及其耦合协调分析

以山东省为例,从人口、社会、经济、资源、环境5个维度构建农业可持续发展水平评价指标体系,采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型等评价2012—2022年农业可持续发展水平及耦合协调性。结果表明:2012—2022年山东省农业可持续发展水平整体呈改善趋势,仍有进一步提升空间;人口、社会、经济、环境系统可持续发展能力总体提升,资源系统可持续发展水平较不稳定;山东省农业“人口-社会-经济-资源-环境”系统耦合度与耦合协调度呈上升趋势,两两子系统之间的耦合度及耦合协调度差异显著。

陕西省能源消费转型与环境可持续发展耦合协调度及影响因素研究

协调推动能源消费转型与环境可持续发展对推进中国式现代化有着重要的意义。从能源消费转型和环境可持续发展两个方面构建评价指标体系。运用熵权法和综合评价法,构建了能源消费转型和环境可持续发展系统的耦合协调度模型,分析了陕西省2015—2021年能源消费转型和环境可持续发展的水平与耦合协调度。研究表明,陕西省能源消费转型与环境可持续发展两个子系统之间耦合程度高,能源消费转型与环境可持续发展系统耦合协调程度不断改善。按影响程度大小,影响陕西省能源消费转型与环境可持续发展系统耦合协调度的主要因素依次为环境状态、能源消费结构、终端用能、环境治理、能源消费强度、环境压力和能源消费总量。

基于SD-协同学模型的中国农业可持续发展评价

农业大系统的经济、社会、科技、生态、自然资源、环境治理六个子系统协同控制是农业可持续协同发展和乡村振兴的产业基础。运用协同学理论和系统动力学方法构建农业大系统可持续发展评价模型,测算各子系统之间的协同度。结果表明:农业可持续协同发展六个子系统协同处于低度协同或非协同。农业科技子系统的贡献度还不高;加快发展和运用绿色低碳循环农业科技,是提升现阶段农业可持续协同发展的关键所在。

“双碳”目标下赤峰市碳排放现状与分析

本文基于赤峰市2012—2022年能源消费量、工业产品生产量和土地利用变化等方面的数据,综合利用能源消费碳排放分解法与土地利用碳排放系数法计算碳排放量,对赤峰市不同碳排放方式引起的碳排放量及碳排放强度变化进行分析,通过综合分析相关数据,为赤峰市能源管理和低碳发展提供有益的参考和决策支持。研究发现,赤峰市的碳排放主要受森林草原覆盖和化石能源消耗的影响,且碳排放总量逐年增加,速率增加了2175.43万t/a。森林和草原作为主要碳汇,近10年来每年吸收二氧化碳约186.41万t。但赤峰市的碳排放量远远超过碳吸收量。森林碳吸收与赤峰市单位GDP碳排放强度关联度最高,关联度分别为0.804,草原碳吸收次之,关联度为0.802。化石燃料燃烧及产品生产的碳排放和人均碳排放强度关联度最高,关联度为0.901,耕地的碳排放次之,关联度为0.68。因此,为实现可持续发展,建议赤峰市增加森林和草原覆盖、优化产业结构、推动清洁能源使用,以控制碳排放增长。

福建省生态可持续与经济高质量发展耦合关系分析

【目的/意义】探究如何实现福建省生态可持续与经济高质量协同发展,提出政策建议以促进福建省产业发展升级转型。【方法/过程】利用熵值法测算各指标的权重,并选择耦合协调度模型计算福建省2011—2022年生态可持续与经济高质量发展耦合协调度,最后利用灰色关联法分析指标与耦合协调度的关联程度。【结果/结论】结果显示,福建省生态可持续与经济高质量发展耦合协调关系显著,总体耦合协调程度发展趋于良好,协调等级为优;根据灰色关联法可知,对耦合协调度影响最大的3个指标分别是工业固体废物产生量、第一产业增加值、自然保护区面积和人均耕地面积。因此,提出了生态经济协调发展、完善发展运行机制、打造智慧农业、整合推进生态旅游项目等对策建议。

基于fsQCA的山东省养老机构供给水平影响因素及提升路径

目的探讨山东省养老机构供给水平的影响因素及提升路径。方法以山东省16个地级市的养老机构为研究对象,采用模糊集定性比较分析方法,分析供给方式创新度、产业间协调度、区域间协调度、城乡间协调度、事业与产业协调度、经济可持续度、人才供给可持续度7个条件变量对山东省养老机构供给水平的组合影响,进一步得出山东省养老机构供给水平的提升路径。结果必要条件分析结果显示,各条件变量的一致性均小于0.9,表明单个条件变量均不能提升山东省养老机构供给水平;条件组态分析结果显示,形成山东省养老机构供给水平提升的组态路径共10条,可分为“创新度—协调度”双元协同型(以供给方式创新度、区域间协调度和城乡间协调度作为核心条件)、“协调度—可持续度”双元协同型(以经济可持续度作为核心条件)、“创新度—协调度—可持续度”三元协同型(以供给方式创新度、区域间协调度和经济可持续度作为核心条件)、“协调度”单元型(以产业间协调度、区域间协调度、事业与产业协调度作为核心条件)4种类型。10个组态路径的总体一致性为0.849(>0.8),总体覆盖度为0.689。结论山东省养老机构供给水平受多种复杂因素的影响,有4种类型的路径可以提升山东省养老机构的供给水平,分别为“创新度—协调度”双元协同型、“协调度—可持续度”双元协同型、“创新度—协调度—可持续度”三元协同型、“协调度”单元型。

多功能环空带压地面诊断方法及装置研究

为突破国外技术封锁,解决国内技术功能较少的缺点,克服现有装置体积大、质量重、搬运不方便的问题,提出了一种多功能环空带压地面诊断方法,设计了一套模块化设计方案和集成组合方案,并研制出了便携式实物装置系统。该系统包括气液分离及固相过滤模块、温压及流量监测模块、气相参数监测模块、液相参数监测模块及液面高度监测模块,可形成不同功能的集成组合方案,结合数据无线传输技术和配套分析软件,具备环空带压原因分析、漏点位置计算、泄漏程度评估及风险程度判断等多种诊断分析功能。现场测试结果显示,案例井环空压力增加的原因是水泥环胶结存在一定缺陷,漏点深度为3120 m左右,泄漏速率0.012 m^(3)/min。系统测得结果与实际情况吻合,验证了诊断方法的合理性和装置的可靠性。

江苏省乡村生态振兴与农村可持续发展指数测度及联动效应研究

本文基于江苏省乡村发展特点,构建了乡村生态振兴评价指标体系和农村可持续发展评价指标体系,对江苏省乡村生态振兴成效和农村可持续发展状况进行综合评价,并通过灰色关联方法进一步探究了二者之间的关联效应。研究表明,江苏省各地区乡村生态振兴成效和农村可持续发展状况大体上呈上升趋势,且各地区二者之间的关联程度均较高,均在0.530以上。据此研究结论,本文从产业发展、收入水平、教育投入和生态健康等四个方面提出促进农村可持续发展的对策建议。