Laser welding (LW) becomes one of the most economical high quality joining processes. LW offers the advantage of very controlled heat input resulting in low distortion and the ability to weld heat sensitive components...Laser welding (LW) becomes one of the most economical high quality joining processes. LW offers the advantage of very controlled heat input resulting in low distortion and the ability to weld heat sensitive components. To exploit efficiently the benefits presented by LW, it is necessary to develop an integrated approach to identify and control the welding process variables in order to produce the desired weld characteristics without being forced to use the traditional and fastidious trial and error procedures. The paper presents a study of weld bead geometry characteristics prediction for laser overlap welding of low carbon galvanized steel using 3D numerical modelling and experimental validation. The temperature dependent material properties, metallurgical transformations and enthalpy method constitute the foundation of the proposed modelling approach. An adaptive 3D heat source is adopted to simulate both keyhole and conduction mode of the LW process. The simulations are performed using 3D finite element model on commercial software. The model is used to estimate the weld bead geometry characteristics for various LW parameters, such as laser power, welding speed and laser beam diameter. The calibration and validation of the 3D numerical model are based on experimental data achieved using a 3 kW Nd:Yag laser system, a structured experimental design and confirmed statistical analysis tools. The results reveal that the modelling approach can provide not only a consistent and accurate prediction of the weld characteristics under variable welding parameters and conditions but also a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of process parameters effects on the weld quality. The results show great concordance between predicted and measured values for weld bead geometry characteristics, such as depth of penetration, bead width at the top surface and bead width at the interface between sheets, with an average accuracy greater than 95%.展开更多
Predicting tourism traffic demand accurately plays an important role in making effective policies for tourist administration. It helps to distribute the resources reasonably and avoid the tourism congestions. This pap...Predicting tourism traffic demand accurately plays an important role in making effective policies for tourist administration. It helps to distribute the resources reasonably and avoid the tourism congestions. This paper considered the noise interference and proposed a hybrid model, combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), deep belief network (DBN) and Google trends, for tourism traffic demand prediction. This model firstly applied dislocation weighted synthesis method to combine Google trends into a search composite index, and then it denoised the series with EEMD. EEMD extracted the high frequency noise from the original series. The low frequency series of search composite index would be used to forecast the low frequency tourism traffic series. Taking the inbound tourism in Shanghai as an example, this paper trained the model and predicted the next 12 months tourism arrivals. The conclusion demonstrated that the forecast error of EEMD-DBN model is lower remarkably than the baselines of ARIMA, GM(1,1), FTS, SVM, CES and DBN model. This revealed that nosing processing is necessary and EEMD-DBN forecast model can improve the prediction accuracy.展开更多
The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)comprises of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy,accounting for 60.3%of primary energy supply,50.0%of final energy consumption,and 63.0%of electricity gene...The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)comprises of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy,accounting for 60.3%of primary energy supply,50.0%of final energy consumption,and 63.0%of electricity generation worldwide in 2016.This study discusses the primary energy supply and final energy consumption situation of the APEC and analyzes the characteristics of electricity in terms of its generation structure based on fuel,consumption by the end-use sector,access to electricity,and so on.The renewable energy and electricity generation projections up to 2030 based on trends in the APEC are also assessed.It is seen that electricity in final energy consumption has been on an upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of about 4.8%during 2006–2016,in 2016,its share reached 24.3%.The industry sector consumes the largest share of electricity,accounting for about 45.5%in 2016.Coal supply and consumption peaked in 2011 and then began to decline,while renewable energy has been on an upward trend,with its primary energy supply share increasing from 4.80%in 2010 to 6.29%in 2016.Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power are on the verge of costing less than the operating cost of existing coal-fired plants in 2018.In the APEC’s target scenario in which renewable energy is doubled,the predicted net growth from 2017 to 2030 of solar,wind,and hydro power is about 963,497,and 157 GW,respectively,and to reach this target,the APEC economies need to accelerate renewable energy development.展开更多
Coal and oil shale are two common sedimentary energy sources which are often symbiotically developed in M esozoic- Cenozoic continental fault basins. However, the mechanisms and characteristics of the symbiotic develo...Coal and oil shale are two common sedimentary energy sources which are often symbiotically developed in M esozoic- Cenozoic continental fault basins. However, the mechanisms and characteristics of the symbiotic development are not yet clearly known. In this research study, the typical continental fault basins of eastern China were chosen as examples for the purpose of conducting an examination of the coal and oil shale symbiotic assemblage types, genetic environmental differences, and transformation mechanisms, as well as the development and occurrence characteristics o f different assemblage types. Through a large number of investigations, systematic experimental testing, and sequence stratigraphy studies, the following conclusions were obtained:(1) There were five types of coal and oil shale symbiotic assemblages observed in the continental fault basins,(2) The development of coal and oil shale deposits requires a warm and humid climate, stable structure, abundant organic matter supply, a certain water depth, and a lower terrestrial source debris supply. The observed differences were that the water depth conditions were diversified in the study area, as well as the sources, types, and content of the organic matter.(3) The rapid transformations of the coal and oil shale genetic environments were mainly controlled by the tectonic settings and climatic conditions, which were determined to control the changes in the water depths, salinity,redox conditions, and lake productivity of the genetic environments. Also, in the symbiotic assemblages, genetic environment changes had induced the development of oil shale deposits, which gradually evolved into coal genetic environments.(4) In the isochronous sequence stratigraphic framework of the coal and oil shale symbiotic assemblages, the lake expansion system tracts (EST) were determined to be the most beneficial to the growth o f all the types of assemblages and were characterized by more assemblage development phases and smaller bed thicknesses. From the early to the late stages of the EST, and from the lakesides to lake centers, the thicknesses of the coal seams in the symbiotic assemblages showed trends of thinning, while the thicknesses of the oil shale deposits exhibited increasing trends. The early stages of high stand system tracts were found to be beneficial to the development of the symbiotic assemblages of coal seams overlying the oil shale. This tract type generally presented large bed thicknesses and distribution ranges. The low stand system tract and the late high stand system tract were determined to be unconducive to the development of the symbiotic assemblages.展开更多
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a serious worldwide issue which has posed great risks on marine ecosystems and public health by directly releasing toxins or indirectly leading to anoxia in marine environment. In recen...Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a serious worldwide issue which has posed great risks on marine ecosystems and public health by directly releasing toxins or indirectly leading to anoxia in marine environment. In recent years HABs have caused huge economic losses in China, particularly in the Yangtze Estuary and the adjacent East China Sea (ECS). The present study investigated the spatial-temporal and species characteristics of large-scale HABs in this area using geographic information system (GIS) Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) spatial analysis, statistical methods and satellite image interpretation. Results revealed that the Yangtze Estuary, Zhoushan island, Xiangshan bay and Jiushan island are the regions with highest frequency of large-scale HABs. HABs in the ECS reached a peak in terms of total number and area in 2003 to 2005 and occupied a high percentage (around 70% in area and 60% in occurrence) in the four Chinese coastal waters. The number of large-scale HABs (> 1000 km2) in the Yangtze Estuary and the adjacent ECS declined after 2005 while that of HABs (> 100 km2) declined after 2008. Large-scale HABs occurrences concentrated in summer (May to July), and the averaged duration increased continually from the shortest time (1.3 days) in 2001 to the longest (10.9 days) in 2010 for each HAB. 17 causative species were found with Prorocentrum dentutam as the most frequent dominant species, followed by Skeletonema costatum, Karenia mikimotoi, and Chaetoceros curvisetus. Water discoloration observed in MODIS satellite true color images was well consistent with the corresponding HABs reported by State Oceanic Administration of China (SOA). Multiple factors involving eutrophication, physical dynamics, topography and deposition conditions contributed to the formation of frequent HABs in the ECS. Three strategies including establishing a synthesized system, improving the previous database and investigating multiple contributors were proposed for future HABs monitoring and management.展开更多
Customer segmentation according to load-shape profiles using smart meter data is an increasingly important application to vital the planning and operation of energy systems and to enable citizens’participation in the...Customer segmentation according to load-shape profiles using smart meter data is an increasingly important application to vital the planning and operation of energy systems and to enable citizens’participation in the energy transition.This study proposes an innovative multi-step clustering procedure to segment customers based on load-shape patterns at the daily and intra-daily time horizons.Smart meter data is split between daily and hourly normalized time series to assess monthly,weekly,daily,and hourly seasonality patterns separately.The dimensionality reduction implicit in the splitting allows a direct approach to clustering raw daily energy time series data.The intraday clustering procedure sequentially identifies representative hourly day-unit profiles for each customer and the entire population.For the first time,a step function approach is applied to reduce time series dimensionality.Customer attributes embedded in surveys are employed to build external clustering validation metrics using Cramer’s V correlation factors and to identify statistically significant determinants of load-shape in energy usage.In addition,a time series features engineering approach is used to extract 16 relevant demand flexibility indicators that characterize customers and corresponding clusters along four different axes:available Energy(E),Temporal patterns(T),Consistency(C),and Variability(V).The methodology is implemented on a real-world electricity consumption dataset of 325 Small and Medium-sized Enterprise(SME)customers,identifying 4 daily and 6 hourly easy-to-interpret,well-defined clusters.The application of the methodology includes selecting key parameters via grid search and a thorough comparison of clustering distances and methods to ensure the robustness of the results.Further research can test the scalability of the methodology to larger datasets from various customer segments(households and large commercial)and locations with different weather and socioeconomic conditions.展开更多
Based on the study of natural gas resource, low buried hill trap formation mechanism, high quality reservoir control factors and natural gas preservation conditions, the formation conditions and reservoir accumulation...Based on the study of natural gas resource, low buried hill trap formation mechanism, high quality reservoir control factors and natural gas preservation conditions, the formation conditions and reservoir accumulation characteristics of Bozhong 19-6 large condensate gas field were summarized. Large gas generation potential of multiple sets of thick humic-sapropelic source rocks in high maturity stage in Bozhong depression was the basis of large gas field formation. The multi-stage tectonic evolution since Indosinian period formed large-scale buried hill traps. The Tanlu fault activity formed multi-type reservoirs, and buried hill metamorphic rock of Archean and sand-conglomerate of Kongdian Formation were high-quality reservoirs. Thick overpressure lacustrine mudstone and weak neotectonic movement provided good preservation conditions. Bozhong 19-6 gas reservoir was a condensate gas reservoir with very high condensate oil content, and the gas origin was humic-sapropelic and kerogen-cracking gas, and the gas field had large gas thickness, high gas column characteristics and the accumulation process was first oil and then gas. The buried hill reservoir was a massive reservoir and the Kongdian reservoir was a stratified reservoir. The gas field had multi-channel hydrocarbon intense charge from overpressure source rocks, atmospheric-weak overpressure reservoir favorable for accumulation, thick overpressure mudstone caprock favorable for preservation, and natural gas ultra-late rapid accumulation model.展开更多
The controlling and influencing effects of the joint action of plates surrounding China on strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland are discussed, and the characteristics of seismic activities in the West of China and n...The controlling and influencing effects of the joint action of plates surrounding China on strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland are discussed, and the characteristics of seismic activities in the West of China and neighboring regions are further studied. The results show that the seismic activity in the West of China and neighboring regions not only has the characteristics of high tide and low tide alternation but also has the characteristics of rising in one region while falling in another, and the rise and fall of seismicity are in some proportion. The above characteristics are useful for the prediction of main body region of strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland, especially for the judgement of the ending time of the high tide period.展开更多
The reproduction characteristics of Aprostocetus prolixus, which is a new parasitioid on Apriona germarii, were studied. It demonstrated that the female adult can generate offspring by either sex reproduction or parth...The reproduction characteristics of Aprostocetus prolixus, which is a new parasitioid on Apriona germarii, were studied. It demonstrated that the female adult can generate offspring by either sex reproduction or parthenogenesis, but all the offspring were male if they were from the mode of parthenogenesis. The sex ratio, with investigating in nature, was 2.38∶1. The environmental conditions had notable influence on sex ratio, survival ratio and fecundity. Its sex ratio increased to 3.48∶1 by feeding complementary nutrition that adding with 20% honey. The temperature has great effect on Aprostocetus prolixus in terms of system research, of which adult longevity decreased with temperature from 17.5 ℃ to 35 ℃ and its ability of reproduction increased between 25 ℃ and 30 ℃ but the acme at 27.5 ℃. Without the feeding complementary nutrition, on the other hand, the female adult will both lose the ability of fecundity at the temperature below 17.5 ℃ and over 35 ℃. With humidity increasing from 40% to 80%, its fecundity increased significantly. It also showed that there was no significant influence of temperature on fecundity between the 4 ℃ to 8 ℃ when cold storage( i.e. the matured larvae for 90 d, the adults for 10 d and the host egg for 40 d).展开更多
After analysis of location feature of the south of lower reaches of Yangtze River and its construction of urban and rural integration,the paper pointed out harmonious combination between natural and artificial factors...After analysis of location feature of the south of lower reaches of Yangtze River and its construction of urban and rural integration,the paper pointed out harmonious combination between natural and artificial factors had been neglected in planning and design of farmers' residential area at the south of lower reaches of Yangtze River,"regional characteristic" losing,residential area in the form of "city community" and buildings in European style.In view of these problems,relevant planning and design thoughts and methods had been proposed as to how to create "regional characteristic" from the perspective of planning,architecture and landscape design.It discussed with emphasis the importance of construction base type and combination of environment with residential area construction;inspirations and design methods obtained from traditional architectures;and the content of landscape overall planning and specific design.It was hoped to enlighten designers to shoulder social and historical responsibility,make exploration unremittingly,and construct beautiful homelands for people.展开更多
As a typical bionic walking robot, hydraulic quadruped robot has attracted much attention because of its high mobility, strong load capacity and steady motion. The electro-hydraulic servo cylinder, as its power actuat...As a typical bionic walking robot, hydraulic quadruped robot has attracted much attention because of its high mobility, strong load capacity and steady motion. The electro-hydraulic servo cylinder, as its power actuator, requires low friction, good lateral load resistance and high speed motion. The electro-hydraulic servo cylinder hydrostatic bearing seal guide sleeve is taken as the research object in this paper. By using Fluent software to analyze and contrast the film characteristics of rectangular and I-shaped oil chamber of hydrostatic bearing seal guide sleeve, the relationship between piston rod moving speed, eccentricity, oil film carrying capacity, friction force and leakage volume, as well as the relationship between oil feed flow and oil film bearing capacity, friction force, inlet pressure and leakage volume were analyzed. This study provides a theoretical basis for optimizing the static pressure bearing seal parameters.展开更多
In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8(EC8). However, a lack of accurac...In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8(EC8). However, a lack of accuracy of the N2 method in certain conditions has been pointed out by several studies. This paper addresses the assessment of effectiveness of the N2 method in seismic displacement demand determination in non-linear domain. The objective of this work is to investigate the accuracy of the N2 method through comparison with displacement demands computed using non-linear timehistory analysis(NLTHA). Results show that the original N2 method may lead to overestimation or underestimation of displacement demand predictions. This may affect results of mechanical model-based assessment of seismic vulnerability at an urban scale. Hence, the second part of this paper addresses an improvement of the N2 method formula by empirical evaluation of NLTHA results based on EC8 ground-classes. This task is formulated as a mathematical programming problem in which coefficients are obtained by minimizing the overall discrepancy between NLTHA and modified formula results. Various settings of the mathematical programming problem have been solved using a global optimization metaheuristic. An extensive comparison between the original N2 method formulation and optimized formulae highlights benefits of the strategy.展开更多
The principles for measuring characteristic grain sizes of materials, such as fully-dense single phase materials, porous materials and materials with isolated second phase particles, are developed on the basis of its ...The principles for measuring characteristic grain sizes of materials, such as fully-dense single phase materials, porous materials and materials with isolated second phase particles, are developed on the basis of its definition associated closely with the surface area per unit volume, Sv, of grain. The focus of the measuring principles of the characteristic grain size is put on determining Sv of grains. Unlike the measurement of average grain size commonly used, G, correcting factors such as grain shape and grain size distribution factors, will not be applied to the determination of the characteristic grain size, Gc, due to its unique geometric meaning and the measure precision of Sv being guaranteed by quantitative stereological technique and gas adsorption method. The measurement of Gc can be directly carried out on the polished and etched cross section of materials, similar to the measuremernt of the average grain size using the Heyn intercept method.展开更多
Active control of the local environment of the cold atmospheric plasma(CAP) jet is of great importance in actual applications since the CAP operates in an open atmosphere with the inevitable entrainment of the surroun...Active control of the local environment of the cold atmospheric plasma(CAP) jet is of great importance in actual applications since the CAP operates in an open atmosphere with the inevitable entrainment of the surrounding cold air. In this paper, the solid shielding effects of the cylindrical quartz tubes with different inner diameters on the characteristics of the CAP jets driven by a radio-frequency(RF) power supply are studied experimentally. The experimental results show that the total length of the shielded plasma jet can be increased significantly by an appropriate combination of the quartz tube inner diameter and that of the plasma generator nozzle exit with other parameters being unchanged. This phenomenon may be qualitatively attributed to the loss of diffusion of the charged particles in the radial direction under different inner diameters of the quartz tubes. Compared with the plasma free jet, the plasma shielding jet is produced with optimized parameters including longer plasma jet length, higher concentrations of chemically reactive species, higher rotational, vibrational, and electron excitation temperatures when the inner diameters of the solid shielding tube and the generator nozzle exit are the same. A maximum plasma jet length of 52.0 cm is obtained in contrast to that of 5.0 cm of the plasma free jet in this study. The experimental results indicate that the solid shielding effect provides a new method for the active control of the local environment of the RF-CAP jet operating in an open atmosphere.展开更多
The article deals with an economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory model for deteriorating items in which the supplier provides the purchaser a permissible delay in payment. This is so when deterioration of units in th...The article deals with an economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory model for deteriorating items in which the supplier provides the purchaser a permissible delay in payment. This is so when deterioration of units in the inventory is subject to constant deterioration rate, demand rate is quadratic function of time and salvage value is associated with the deteriorated units. Shortages in the system are not allowed to occur. A mathematical formulation is developed when the supplier offers a permissible delay period to the customers under two circumstances: 1) when delay period is less than the cycle of time;and 2) when delay period is greater than the cycle of time. The method is suitable for the items like state-of-the-art aircrafts, super computers, laptops, android mobiles, seasonal items and machines and their spare parts. A solution procedure algorithm is given for finding the optimal order quantity which minimizes the total cost of an inventory system. The article includes numerical examples to support the effectiveness of the developed model. Finally, sensitivity analysis on some parameters on optimal solution is provided.展开更多
Coal-bearing strata are widespread in the western Great Khingan Mountains. Abundant coal resources have been found in the Jurassic Alatanheli Groups, the Cretaceous Bayanhua Groups, the Damoguaihe Formation and the Yi...Coal-bearing strata are widespread in the western Great Khingan Mountains. Abundant coal resources have been found in the Jurassic Alatanheli Groups, the Cretaceous Bayanhua Groups, the Damoguaihe Formation and the Yimin Formation. The organic geochemical characteristics were analyzed in combination with hydrocarbon source rock evaluation and molecular organic geochemistry experiments, and the coal gas potential of coal seams was evaluated. The source rock evaluation results indicated that the Mesozoic coal samples have the characteristics of high organic matter abundance(TOC>30%), low maturity(Ro values of approximately 0.6%), and type Ⅲ composition. The hydrocarbon generation potentials of the Alatanheli Groups and Bayanhua Groups are high, while the generation potentials of the Damoguaihe Formation and the Yimin Formation are low. The results of geochemistry show that the depositional environment of the coal seam was a lacustrine, oxidizing environment with a low salinity, and the source of the organic matter was mainly higher plants. Affected by weak degradation, the coal seams mainly formed low-maturity gas of thermal catalytic origin. The Cretaceous coal seams contain a large amount of phytoplankton groups deposited in a low-stability environment affected by a transgression event, and the potential range varied widely. For the Jurassic coal seams, the depositional environment was more stable, and the coal seams feature a higher coal-forming gas potential.展开更多
The analysis of hydrochemical characteristics and influencing factors of surface river on plateau is helpful to study water hydrological cycle and environmental evolution,which can scientifically guide rational develo...The analysis of hydrochemical characteristics and influencing factors of surface river on plateau is helpful to study water hydrological cycle and environmental evolution,which can scientifically guide rational development and utilization of water resources and planning of ecological environment protection.With the expansion and diversification of human activities,the quality of surface rivers will be more directly affected.Therefore,it is of great significance to pay attention to the hydrochemical characteristics of plateau surface rivers and the influence of human activities on their circulation and evolution.In this study,surface water in the Duoqu basin of Jinsha River located in Hengduan mountain region of Eastern Tibet was selected as the representative case.Twenty-three groups of surface water samples were collected to analyze the hydrochemical characteristics and ion sources based on correlation analysis,piper trigram,gibbs model,hydrogen and oxygen isotopic techniques.The results suggest the following:(1)The pH showed slight alkalinity with the value ranged from 7.25 to 8.62.Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+)and HCO_(3)^(–)were the main cations and anions.HCO_(3)^(-)Ca and HCO_(3)^(-)Ca·Mg were the primary hydrochemical types for the surface water of Duoqu River.The correlation analysis showed that TDS had the most significant correlation with Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+)and HCO_(3)^(–).Analysis on hydrogen and oxygen isotopes indicated that the surface rivers were mainly recharged by atmospheric precipitation and glacial melt water in this study area.(2)The surface water had a certain reverse cation alternating adsorption,and surface water ions were mainly derived from rock weathering,mainly controlled by weathering and dissolution of carbonates,and secondly by silicates and sodium rocks.(3)The influence of human activities was weak,while the development of cinnabar minerals had a certain impact on the hydrochemistry characteristics,which was the main factor for causing the increase of SO_(4)^(2–).The densely populated county towns and temples with frequent incense burning activities may cause some anomalies of surface water quality.At present,the Duoqu River watershed had gone through a certain influence of mineral exploitation,so the hydrological cycle and river eco-environment at watershed scale will still bound to be change.The results could provide basic support for better understanding water balance evolution as well as the ecological protection of Duoqu River watershed.展开更多
文摘Laser welding (LW) becomes one of the most economical high quality joining processes. LW offers the advantage of very controlled heat input resulting in low distortion and the ability to weld heat sensitive components. To exploit efficiently the benefits presented by LW, it is necessary to develop an integrated approach to identify and control the welding process variables in order to produce the desired weld characteristics without being forced to use the traditional and fastidious trial and error procedures. The paper presents a study of weld bead geometry characteristics prediction for laser overlap welding of low carbon galvanized steel using 3D numerical modelling and experimental validation. The temperature dependent material properties, metallurgical transformations and enthalpy method constitute the foundation of the proposed modelling approach. An adaptive 3D heat source is adopted to simulate both keyhole and conduction mode of the LW process. The simulations are performed using 3D finite element model on commercial software. The model is used to estimate the weld bead geometry characteristics for various LW parameters, such as laser power, welding speed and laser beam diameter. The calibration and validation of the 3D numerical model are based on experimental data achieved using a 3 kW Nd:Yag laser system, a structured experimental design and confirmed statistical analysis tools. The results reveal that the modelling approach can provide not only a consistent and accurate prediction of the weld characteristics under variable welding parameters and conditions but also a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of process parameters effects on the weld quality. The results show great concordance between predicted and measured values for weld bead geometry characteristics, such as depth of penetration, bead width at the top surface and bead width at the interface between sheets, with an average accuracy greater than 95%.
文摘Predicting tourism traffic demand accurately plays an important role in making effective policies for tourist administration. It helps to distribute the resources reasonably and avoid the tourism congestions. This paper considered the noise interference and proposed a hybrid model, combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), deep belief network (DBN) and Google trends, for tourism traffic demand prediction. This model firstly applied dislocation weighted synthesis method to combine Google trends into a search composite index, and then it denoised the series with EEMD. EEMD extracted the high frequency noise from the original series. The low frequency series of search composite index would be used to forecast the low frequency tourism traffic series. Taking the inbound tourism in Shanghai as an example, this paper trained the model and predicted the next 12 months tourism arrivals. The conclusion demonstrated that the forecast error of EEMD-DBN model is lower remarkably than the baselines of ARIMA, GM(1,1), FTS, SVM, CES and DBN model. This revealed that nosing processing is necessary and EEMD-DBN forecast model can improve the prediction accuracy.
基金sponsored by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC0704400)the Programmer of Introducing Talents (Grant No. B13011)
文摘The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)comprises of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy,accounting for 60.3%of primary energy supply,50.0%of final energy consumption,and 63.0%of electricity generation worldwide in 2016.This study discusses the primary energy supply and final energy consumption situation of the APEC and analyzes the characteristics of electricity in terms of its generation structure based on fuel,consumption by the end-use sector,access to electricity,and so on.The renewable energy and electricity generation projections up to 2030 based on trends in the APEC are also assessed.It is seen that electricity in final energy consumption has been on an upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of about 4.8%during 2006–2016,in 2016,its share reached 24.3%.The industry sector consumes the largest share of electricity,accounting for about 45.5%in 2016.Coal supply and consumption peaked in 2011 and then began to decline,while renewable energy has been on an upward trend,with its primary energy supply share increasing from 4.80%in 2010 to 6.29%in 2016.Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power are on the verge of costing less than the operating cost of existing coal-fired plants in 2018.In the APEC’s target scenario in which renewable energy is doubled,the predicted net growth from 2017 to 2030 of solar,wind,and hydro power is about 963,497,and 157 GW,respectively,and to reach this target,the APEC economies need to accelerate renewable energy development.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan (2017YFC0601400)SDUST Research Fund (2018TDJH101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41402086, 272172)
文摘Coal and oil shale are two common sedimentary energy sources which are often symbiotically developed in M esozoic- Cenozoic continental fault basins. However, the mechanisms and characteristics of the symbiotic development are not yet clearly known. In this research study, the typical continental fault basins of eastern China were chosen as examples for the purpose of conducting an examination of the coal and oil shale symbiotic assemblage types, genetic environmental differences, and transformation mechanisms, as well as the development and occurrence characteristics o f different assemblage types. Through a large number of investigations, systematic experimental testing, and sequence stratigraphy studies, the following conclusions were obtained:(1) There were five types of coal and oil shale symbiotic assemblages observed in the continental fault basins,(2) The development of coal and oil shale deposits requires a warm and humid climate, stable structure, abundant organic matter supply, a certain water depth, and a lower terrestrial source debris supply. The observed differences were that the water depth conditions were diversified in the study area, as well as the sources, types, and content of the organic matter.(3) The rapid transformations of the coal and oil shale genetic environments were mainly controlled by the tectonic settings and climatic conditions, which were determined to control the changes in the water depths, salinity,redox conditions, and lake productivity of the genetic environments. Also, in the symbiotic assemblages, genetic environment changes had induced the development of oil shale deposits, which gradually evolved into coal genetic environments.(4) In the isochronous sequence stratigraphic framework of the coal and oil shale symbiotic assemblages, the lake expansion system tracts (EST) were determined to be the most beneficial to the growth o f all the types of assemblages and were characterized by more assemblage development phases and smaller bed thicknesses. From the early to the late stages of the EST, and from the lakesides to lake centers, the thicknesses of the coal seams in the symbiotic assemblages showed trends of thinning, while the thicknesses of the oil shale deposits exhibited increasing trends. The early stages of high stand system tracts were found to be beneficial to the development of the symbiotic assemblages of coal seams overlying the oil shale. This tract type generally presented large bed thicknesses and distribution ranges. The low stand system tract and the late high stand system tract were determined to be unconducive to the development of the symbiotic assemblages.
文摘Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a serious worldwide issue which has posed great risks on marine ecosystems and public health by directly releasing toxins or indirectly leading to anoxia in marine environment. In recent years HABs have caused huge economic losses in China, particularly in the Yangtze Estuary and the adjacent East China Sea (ECS). The present study investigated the spatial-temporal and species characteristics of large-scale HABs in this area using geographic information system (GIS) Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) spatial analysis, statistical methods and satellite image interpretation. Results revealed that the Yangtze Estuary, Zhoushan island, Xiangshan bay and Jiushan island are the regions with highest frequency of large-scale HABs. HABs in the ECS reached a peak in terms of total number and area in 2003 to 2005 and occupied a high percentage (around 70% in area and 60% in occurrence) in the four Chinese coastal waters. The number of large-scale HABs (> 1000 km2) in the Yangtze Estuary and the adjacent ECS declined after 2005 while that of HABs (> 100 km2) declined after 2008. Large-scale HABs occurrences concentrated in summer (May to July), and the averaged duration increased continually from the shortest time (1.3 days) in 2001 to the longest (10.9 days) in 2010 for each HAB. 17 causative species were found with Prorocentrum dentutam as the most frequent dominant species, followed by Skeletonema costatum, Karenia mikimotoi, and Chaetoceros curvisetus. Water discoloration observed in MODIS satellite true color images was well consistent with the corresponding HABs reported by State Oceanic Administration of China (SOA). Multiple factors involving eutrophication, physical dynamics, topography and deposition conditions contributed to the formation of frequent HABs in the ECS. Three strategies including establishing a synthesized system, improving the previous database and investigating multiple contributors were proposed for future HABs monitoring and management.
基金supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under Projects PID2022-137680OB-C32 and PID2022-139187OB-I00.
文摘Customer segmentation according to load-shape profiles using smart meter data is an increasingly important application to vital the planning and operation of energy systems and to enable citizens’participation in the energy transition.This study proposes an innovative multi-step clustering procedure to segment customers based on load-shape patterns at the daily and intra-daily time horizons.Smart meter data is split between daily and hourly normalized time series to assess monthly,weekly,daily,and hourly seasonality patterns separately.The dimensionality reduction implicit in the splitting allows a direct approach to clustering raw daily energy time series data.The intraday clustering procedure sequentially identifies representative hourly day-unit profiles for each customer and the entire population.For the first time,a step function approach is applied to reduce time series dimensionality.Customer attributes embedded in surveys are employed to build external clustering validation metrics using Cramer’s V correlation factors and to identify statistically significant determinants of load-shape in energy usage.In addition,a time series features engineering approach is used to extract 16 relevant demand flexibility indicators that characterize customers and corresponding clusters along four different axes:available Energy(E),Temporal patterns(T),Consistency(C),and Variability(V).The methodology is implemented on a real-world electricity consumption dataset of 325 Small and Medium-sized Enterprise(SME)customers,identifying 4 daily and 6 hourly easy-to-interpret,well-defined clusters.The application of the methodology includes selecting key parameters via grid search and a thorough comparison of clustering distances and methods to ensure the robustness of the results.Further research can test the scalability of the methodology to larger datasets from various customer segments(households and large commercial)and locations with different weather and socioeconomic conditions.
基金Supported by the China National Science and Technology Major Project(2016ZX05024-003-001)
文摘Based on the study of natural gas resource, low buried hill trap formation mechanism, high quality reservoir control factors and natural gas preservation conditions, the formation conditions and reservoir accumulation characteristics of Bozhong 19-6 large condensate gas field were summarized. Large gas generation potential of multiple sets of thick humic-sapropelic source rocks in high maturity stage in Bozhong depression was the basis of large gas field formation. The multi-stage tectonic evolution since Indosinian period formed large-scale buried hill traps. The Tanlu fault activity formed multi-type reservoirs, and buried hill metamorphic rock of Archean and sand-conglomerate of Kongdian Formation were high-quality reservoirs. Thick overpressure lacustrine mudstone and weak neotectonic movement provided good preservation conditions. Bozhong 19-6 gas reservoir was a condensate gas reservoir with very high condensate oil content, and the gas origin was humic-sapropelic and kerogen-cracking gas, and the gas field had large gas thickness, high gas column characteristics and the accumulation process was first oil and then gas. The buried hill reservoir was a massive reservoir and the Kongdian reservoir was a stratified reservoir. The gas field had multi-channel hydrocarbon intense charge from overpressure source rocks, atmospheric-weak overpressure reservoir favorable for accumulation, thick overpressure mudstone caprock favorable for preservation, and natural gas ultra-late rapid accumulation model.
文摘The controlling and influencing effects of the joint action of plates surrounding China on strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland are discussed, and the characteristics of seismic activities in the West of China and neighboring regions are further studied. The results show that the seismic activity in the West of China and neighboring regions not only has the characteristics of high tide and low tide alternation but also has the characteristics of rising in one region while falling in another, and the rise and fall of seismicity are in some proportion. The above characteristics are useful for the prediction of main body region of strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland, especially for the judgement of the ending time of the high tide period.
文摘The reproduction characteristics of Aprostocetus prolixus, which is a new parasitioid on Apriona germarii, were studied. It demonstrated that the female adult can generate offspring by either sex reproduction or parthenogenesis, but all the offspring were male if they were from the mode of parthenogenesis. The sex ratio, with investigating in nature, was 2.38∶1. The environmental conditions had notable influence on sex ratio, survival ratio and fecundity. Its sex ratio increased to 3.48∶1 by feeding complementary nutrition that adding with 20% honey. The temperature has great effect on Aprostocetus prolixus in terms of system research, of which adult longevity decreased with temperature from 17.5 ℃ to 35 ℃ and its ability of reproduction increased between 25 ℃ and 30 ℃ but the acme at 27.5 ℃. Without the feeding complementary nutrition, on the other hand, the female adult will both lose the ability of fecundity at the temperature below 17.5 ℃ and over 35 ℃. With humidity increasing from 40% to 80%, its fecundity increased significantly. It also showed that there was no significant influence of temperature on fecundity between the 4 ℃ to 8 ℃ when cold storage( i.e. the matured larvae for 90 d, the adults for 10 d and the host egg for 40 d).
文摘After analysis of location feature of the south of lower reaches of Yangtze River and its construction of urban and rural integration,the paper pointed out harmonious combination between natural and artificial factors had been neglected in planning and design of farmers' residential area at the south of lower reaches of Yangtze River,"regional characteristic" losing,residential area in the form of "city community" and buildings in European style.In view of these problems,relevant planning and design thoughts and methods had been proposed as to how to create "regional characteristic" from the perspective of planning,architecture and landscape design.It discussed with emphasis the importance of construction base type and combination of environment with residential area construction;inspirations and design methods obtained from traditional architectures;and the content of landscape overall planning and specific design.It was hoped to enlighten designers to shoulder social and historical responsibility,make exploration unremittingly,and construct beautiful homelands for people.
基金supported by the National 863 Project(2011AA040701)
文摘As a typical bionic walking robot, hydraulic quadruped robot has attracted much attention because of its high mobility, strong load capacity and steady motion. The electro-hydraulic servo cylinder, as its power actuator, requires low friction, good lateral load resistance and high speed motion. The electro-hydraulic servo cylinder hydrostatic bearing seal guide sleeve is taken as the research object in this paper. By using Fluent software to analyze and contrast the film characteristics of rectangular and I-shaped oil chamber of hydrostatic bearing seal guide sleeve, the relationship between piston rod moving speed, eccentricity, oil film carrying capacity, friction force and leakage volume, as well as the relationship between oil feed flow and oil film bearing capacity, friction force, inlet pressure and leakage volume were analyzed. This study provides a theoretical basis for optimizing the static pressure bearing seal parameters.
文摘In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8(EC8). However, a lack of accuracy of the N2 method in certain conditions has been pointed out by several studies. This paper addresses the assessment of effectiveness of the N2 method in seismic displacement demand determination in non-linear domain. The objective of this work is to investigate the accuracy of the N2 method through comparison with displacement demands computed using non-linear timehistory analysis(NLTHA). Results show that the original N2 method may lead to overestimation or underestimation of displacement demand predictions. This may affect results of mechanical model-based assessment of seismic vulnerability at an urban scale. Hence, the second part of this paper addresses an improvement of the N2 method formula by empirical evaluation of NLTHA results based on EC8 ground-classes. This task is formulated as a mathematical programming problem in which coefficients are obtained by minimizing the overall discrepancy between NLTHA and modified formula results. Various settings of the mathematical programming problem have been solved using a global optimization metaheuristic. An extensive comparison between the original N2 method formulation and optimized formulae highlights benefits of the strategy.
文摘The principles for measuring characteristic grain sizes of materials, such as fully-dense single phase materials, porous materials and materials with isolated second phase particles, are developed on the basis of its definition associated closely with the surface area per unit volume, Sv, of grain. The focus of the measuring principles of the characteristic grain size is put on determining Sv of grains. Unlike the measurement of average grain size commonly used, G, correcting factors such as grain shape and grain size distribution factors, will not be applied to the determination of the characteristic grain size, Gc, due to its unique geometric meaning and the measure precision of Sv being guaranteed by quantitative stereological technique and gas adsorption method. The measurement of Gc can be directly carried out on the polished and etched cross section of materials, similar to the measuremernt of the average grain size using the Heyn intercept method.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11475103, 21627812, 51578309)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFD0102106)the Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Program (No. 20161080108)
文摘Active control of the local environment of the cold atmospheric plasma(CAP) jet is of great importance in actual applications since the CAP operates in an open atmosphere with the inevitable entrainment of the surrounding cold air. In this paper, the solid shielding effects of the cylindrical quartz tubes with different inner diameters on the characteristics of the CAP jets driven by a radio-frequency(RF) power supply are studied experimentally. The experimental results show that the total length of the shielded plasma jet can be increased significantly by an appropriate combination of the quartz tube inner diameter and that of the plasma generator nozzle exit with other parameters being unchanged. This phenomenon may be qualitatively attributed to the loss of diffusion of the charged particles in the radial direction under different inner diameters of the quartz tubes. Compared with the plasma free jet, the plasma shielding jet is produced with optimized parameters including longer plasma jet length, higher concentrations of chemically reactive species, higher rotational, vibrational, and electron excitation temperatures when the inner diameters of the solid shielding tube and the generator nozzle exit are the same. A maximum plasma jet length of 52.0 cm is obtained in contrast to that of 5.0 cm of the plasma free jet in this study. The experimental results indicate that the solid shielding effect provides a new method for the active control of the local environment of the RF-CAP jet operating in an open atmosphere.
文摘The article deals with an economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory model for deteriorating items in which the supplier provides the purchaser a permissible delay in payment. This is so when deterioration of units in the inventory is subject to constant deterioration rate, demand rate is quadratic function of time and salvage value is associated with the deteriorated units. Shortages in the system are not allowed to occur. A mathematical formulation is developed when the supplier offers a permissible delay period to the customers under two circumstances: 1) when delay period is less than the cycle of time;and 2) when delay period is greater than the cycle of time. The method is suitable for the items like state-of-the-art aircrafts, super computers, laptops, android mobiles, seasonal items and machines and their spare parts. A solution procedure algorithm is given for finding the optimal order quantity which minimizes the total cost of an inventory system. The article includes numerical examples to support the effectiveness of the developed model. Finally, sensitivity analysis on some parameters on optimal solution is provided.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41430322)The anonymous journal reviewers and editors are acknowledged for their valuable comments.
文摘Coal-bearing strata are widespread in the western Great Khingan Mountains. Abundant coal resources have been found in the Jurassic Alatanheli Groups, the Cretaceous Bayanhua Groups, the Damoguaihe Formation and the Yimin Formation. The organic geochemical characteristics were analyzed in combination with hydrocarbon source rock evaluation and molecular organic geochemistry experiments, and the coal gas potential of coal seams was evaluated. The source rock evaluation results indicated that the Mesozoic coal samples have the characteristics of high organic matter abundance(TOC>30%), low maturity(Ro values of approximately 0.6%), and type Ⅲ composition. The hydrocarbon generation potentials of the Alatanheli Groups and Bayanhua Groups are high, while the generation potentials of the Damoguaihe Formation and the Yimin Formation are low. The results of geochemistry show that the depositional environment of the coal seam was a lacustrine, oxidizing environment with a low salinity, and the source of the organic matter was mainly higher plants. Affected by weak degradation, the coal seams mainly formed low-maturity gas of thermal catalytic origin. The Cretaceous coal seams contain a large amount of phytoplankton groups deposited in a low-stability environment affected by a transgression event, and the potential range varied widely. For the Jurassic coal seams, the depositional environment was more stable, and the coal seams feature a higher coal-forming gas potential.
基金financially supported by the Geological Survey Project of China Geological Survey(DD20230077,DD20230456,DD20230424)。
文摘The analysis of hydrochemical characteristics and influencing factors of surface river on plateau is helpful to study water hydrological cycle and environmental evolution,which can scientifically guide rational development and utilization of water resources and planning of ecological environment protection.With the expansion and diversification of human activities,the quality of surface rivers will be more directly affected.Therefore,it is of great significance to pay attention to the hydrochemical characteristics of plateau surface rivers and the influence of human activities on their circulation and evolution.In this study,surface water in the Duoqu basin of Jinsha River located in Hengduan mountain region of Eastern Tibet was selected as the representative case.Twenty-three groups of surface water samples were collected to analyze the hydrochemical characteristics and ion sources based on correlation analysis,piper trigram,gibbs model,hydrogen and oxygen isotopic techniques.The results suggest the following:(1)The pH showed slight alkalinity with the value ranged from 7.25 to 8.62.Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+)and HCO_(3)^(–)were the main cations and anions.HCO_(3)^(-)Ca and HCO_(3)^(-)Ca·Mg were the primary hydrochemical types for the surface water of Duoqu River.The correlation analysis showed that TDS had the most significant correlation with Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+)and HCO_(3)^(–).Analysis on hydrogen and oxygen isotopes indicated that the surface rivers were mainly recharged by atmospheric precipitation and glacial melt water in this study area.(2)The surface water had a certain reverse cation alternating adsorption,and surface water ions were mainly derived from rock weathering,mainly controlled by weathering and dissolution of carbonates,and secondly by silicates and sodium rocks.(3)The influence of human activities was weak,while the development of cinnabar minerals had a certain impact on the hydrochemistry characteristics,which was the main factor for causing the increase of SO_(4)^(2–).The densely populated county towns and temples with frequent incense burning activities may cause some anomalies of surface water quality.At present,the Duoqu River watershed had gone through a certain influence of mineral exploitation,so the hydrological cycle and river eco-environment at watershed scale will still bound to be change.The results could provide basic support for better understanding water balance evolution as well as the ecological protection of Duoqu River watershed.
