Impact of Demographic Transition on Household Energy Consumption: A Case from China

Understanding how aging population and low fertility affect household energy consumption is important for optimizing household energy consumption and reaching effective policies.This paper studies the impacts of demographic transition on household energy consumption based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016.Child-age dependency rate(CDR)and old-age dependency rate(ODR)are selected to track the shifts in age structure.They are introduced into a STIRPAT model to measure their impacts on household energy consumption.Besides,8 representative regions are additionally chosen and investigated to find some regional characteristics.The results show that current demographic transition to aging population expands household energy consumption.The aging population and low fertility cause additional challenges for energy saving and emission reduction.Household energy consumption in less developed areas is more likely to be affected by CDR and ODR.Regions with large population are also more easily influenced by demographic transitions especially CDR.This study emphases the effects of demographic elements on household energy consumption.It indicates that continuous optimization of household energy consumption structures should be based on population dynamics.

Reexamining China＇s Demographic Transition and Age Structure

This paper discusses the shortcomings of Western theories on demographic transition by comparing transitions in demographic structure for Europe and China. This paper further proposes several criteria for judging the direction of demographic transition and whether or not it has finished. Apart from establishing new theories of demographic transition and the trasition of demographic structure, this paper differentiates the concepts of ＂relative surplus population＂ and ＂relative suitable population,＂ and ＂relative insufficient population＂ and identifies key demographic differences along the way. In doing so, this paper argues that China＇s demographic strueture is undergoing a process of rebalancing.

Phenomenological Models of the Global Demographic Dynamics and Their Usage for Forecasting in 21st Century

A great discovery made by H. von Foerster, P. M. Mora and L. W. Amiot was published in a 1960 issue of “Science”. The authors showed that existing data for calculating the Earth’s population in the new era (from 1 to 1958) could be described with incredibly high proximity by a hyperbolic function with the point of singularity on 13 November 2026. Thus, empirical regularity of the rise of the human population was established, which was marked by explosive demographic growth in the 20th century when during only one century it almost quadrupled: from 1.656 billion in 1900 to 6.144 billion in 2000. Nowadays, the world population has already overcome 7.8 billion people. Immediately after 1960, an active search for phenomenological models began to explain the mechanism of the hyperbolic population growth and the following demographic transition designed to stabilize its population. A significant role in explaining the mechanism of the hyperbolic growth of the world population was played by S. Kuznets (1960) and E. Boserup (1965), who found out that the rates of technological progress historically increased in proportion to the Earth’s population. It meant that the growth of the population led to raising the level of life-supporting technologies, and the latter in its turn enlarged the carrying capacity of the Earth, making it possible for the world population to expand. Proceeding from the information imperative, we have developed the model of the demographic dynamics for the 21st century for the first time. The model shows that with the development and spread of Intelligent Machines (IM), the number of the world population reaching a certain maximum will then irreversibly decline. Human depopulation will largely touch upon the most developed countries, where IM is used intensively nowadays. Until a certain moment in time, this depopulation in developed countries will be compensated by the explosive growth of the population in African countries located south of the Sahara. Calculations in our model reveal that the peak of the human population of 8.52 billion people will be reached in 2050, then it will irreversibly go down to 7.9 billion people by 2100, if developed countries do not take timely effective measures to overcome the process of information depopulation.

Reverse Gear: Cairo’s Dependence on a Disappearing Paradigm

In the 1960s and 1970 s, attention was focused on rapid population growth and large scale family planning programs were launched in many developing countries. However, the paradigm for understanding fertility decline assumed that exogenous socioeconomic changes were necessary to reduce family size. By the mid-1990s, the standard model of the demographic transition had been all but discarded, partly there were numerous country experiences inconsistent with the model. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development （ICPD） emphasized women＇s broader needs, which were important but were promoted by reducing attention to population and the need for family planning. The timing of this shift was peculiar, because the Cairo proponents were depending on an already discredited model of reproductive behavior. The policy shift at Cairo undermined the political coalition that had supported international family planning since the 1960s. As a result of declining financial support, the health of women has deteriorated seriously in the past decade. Meantime, the countries that have been successful in lifting unprecedented numbers of people out of abject poverty were acting independently of the Cairo consensus.

Relating Demography to Trade Imbalances through Theoretical Modeling and Numerical Simulation

Demographic transitions occur at different times and speed across different economies, and age structures consequently differ across regions. Using a solvable four-phase model, we show that economies with a higher proportion of working-age force and a lower dependency ratio tend to have higher savings rates. Because the demographic ＂ center of gravity＂for investment demand falls at a younger point in the age distribution than that of savings supply, countries with a younger age-distribution like those described above generate national savings in excess of domestic investment, resulting in a current account surplus. Numerical simulation supports this hypothesis. But the relative youth or age of a country＇s population reflects temporary demographic trends which change continuously. Therefore, while trade imbalances caused by demographic factors are structural and long-term, they are not permanent, and may be reversed by changes in age structure.

Is there a Chinese pattern of the second demographic transition?

The Second Demographic Transition(SDT)is a useful theoretical framework for explaining the recent trend in many countries of very low fertility combined with alternative union and family types.Although past studies have observed the SDT in many Western societies,whether it is applicable to East Asia remains unclear.Capitalizing on data from the Chinese Census and China Family Panel Studies,we provide estimates of key behavioral and ideational indicators of the SDT.We find that union formation in China has trended increasingly toward patterns commonly observed in the West,including delayed age of marriage and the common practice of premarital cohabitation.While having a lowest-low fertility rate,China has not experienced rising nonmarital childbirths,a key component of the SDT.However,we observe growing tolerance toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness.Marriages remain relatively stable in China,especially among couples with children.Taken together,our analysis suggests that typically coincident changes in patterns of family behavior associated with the SDT are not occurring simultaneously in China.Moreover,ideational changes are preceding behavioral changes,particularly in attitudes toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness.Our research suggests a different pattern of the SDT in China,which has been heavily influenced by Confucian culture.

A second demographic transition in Indonesia?

As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia,Indo-nesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation.This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition(SDT)theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility,marriage and family change in Indonesia.Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998,we found emerging demographic fea-tures typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition.These include fertility below replacement in some regions;increasing age at first marriage,non-marriage,and divorce rates;and growing diversity in household/family forms.As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically,culturally,and demographically heterogeneous,these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner.Further,these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multi-ple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change per-taining to marriage and the family.We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage,fertility,and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature.Emerging ideational change embodying individual-ism,secularism,and post-materialism-originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe-can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions.As a demographic framework,the SDT theory is an important and use-ful starting point.But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition,as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.

The second demographic transition:also a 21st century Asian challenge?

This introduction aims at placing the unfolding sub-patterns of the Asian“Second Demographic Transition”(SDT)in a global context by contrasting them with those of societies with other than patriarchal histories.Firstly,fertility transitions to below-replacement level can be achieved as part of the first“altruistic”transition without any SDT traits being present.Secondly,Asian societies are by no means immune to genuine SDT developments,as illustrated by the emergence and spread of pre-marital cohabitation.Thirdly,the SDT cohabitation pattern is still conservative:it is followed by marriage,pregnancies result in shotgun marriages or abortions,and parenthood within consensual unions remains rare.Also divorce rates are low.But it is also argued that all Asian cases are still at the beginning of the possible SDT evolution or have barely started it,and that old ways can die off rather quickly with the succession of generations.Finally,it is shown that the cultural component,i.e.the“Willingness”condition,can act as a bottleneck slowing down the transition to a new pattern of behaviour.We therefore illustrate on a global scale how the spread of cohabitation is part of a broader ethical revolution stressing individual rather than societal discretion in matters of life and death.On the basis of these profiles we expect stronger resistance to SDT patterns of partnerhip formation in Hindu and Muslim societies.

Bifurcation,Several Equilibria and Multiple Growth Paths in the Solow Model with Endogenous Demographic Transition

In this paper,the endogenous demographic transition function is integrated into the classical Solow model. It is proven that the differential equation which describes the model at least has a nonzero equilibrium. The differential equation has several equilibria when the technological level or the saving rate is not high enough and undergoes bifurcation at some specified parame-ter values. Therefore,the economy described by the model pre-sents multiple growth paths and ＂Malthusian Poverty Trap＂ when the technological level or the saving rate is low.

India’s date with second demographic transition

Using data from various sources,this paper discusses the recently documented below replacement level fertility in India in the context of the universality of marriage of girls,most of which are arranged by the parents,and increase in their mean age at marriage,mainly due to decrease in child marriage.There is virtually no increase in divorce rate,cohabitation,or voluntary childlessness,except for some anecdotal evidence from metro cities.The paper shows that the transition to small family in India is not due to cultural shifts towards post-modern attitudes and norms that accept and stress individuality and self-actualization.It is largely due to high aspirations among urban middle-class parents for children which can be fulfilled when they have one or at most two children in view of the rising cost of private English medium education and health care.

Demographic and social anxieties:the second demographic transition in Asia

Asia is now,predominantly,a continent of‘low’fertility-one of the features of the Second Demographic Transition.Across the continent,this feature of our population has sprouted concern and anxiety,primarily expressed in macroeconomic terms.Low fertility is directly linked to the twin challenges of population aging and stagnation/decline.We know,however,that maximizing human capital and institutional reform is a much more effective way of responding to these two‘grand challenges’in the short-and medium-term.Why,then,is there such a panic about the lack of babies?In this commentary,I argue that much of the concern is grounded in a‘fear’of some of the features of the Second Demographic Transition(SDT)-or,at least,a caricatured version of it-taking root in Asian societies.But how concerned should they be?The papers in this special issue clearly demonstrate that the pathway towards‘full SDT’has developed in a very uneven way,perhaps so much so that some may argue the SDT is not a viable tool for understanding family change in(much of)Asia.However,this caricature of what the SDT‘is’can be unhelpful.There is no doubt that ideals and attitudes are changing(even if many others are not).Therefore,if we rather consider the SDT as a“general narrative that leaves room for many sub-narratives”,the evidence from Asia clearly demonstrates that there are many sub-narratives operating within a general transition towards some of the key societal and familial features of the SDT.

Gendering the second demographic transition:gender asymmetry,gendered tension,and cohabitation in contemporary urban China

The Second Demographic Transition(SDT)framework highlights individuals'ideational shift toward greater individualism in explaining the rise of non-marriage unions.Contemporary China has seen a substantial increase in premarital cohabitation.Drawing on 65 in-depth interviews with highly educated young urban Chinese women and men,this article examines the gendered ways in which young Chinese adults perceive and make decisions about premarital cohabitation,as they envision their ideal lives and what autonomy and self-realization mean to them.I demonstrate that while male respondents predominantly view cohabitation positively as a risk-reduction strategy for avoiding incompatible marriages,female respondents still consider cohabitation to be a risk-amplification arrangement in practice that increases the possibility of uncertain marriage prospect,unsafe sex,and reputational damages.Young women,but not men,often have to strategizethrough carefully managing information disclosureabout persistent parental expectations that discourage women's premarital cohabitation.As a result,while male respondents regard marriage to be neither the necessary precondition nor the end goal of cohabitation,female respondents,who otherwise emphasize autonomy and individualistic fulfllment,continue to desire a close linkage between cohabitation and marriage.Leveraging the unique strength of qualitative data in demographic research,this article articulates the gender asymmetry in how women and men perceive cohabitation's risks,benefits,and link to marriage.I elucidate the gendered tension between privately-held ideals of individualism vis-a-vis enduring social norms of female marriageability,as women and men differentially navigate parental expectations surrounding cohabitation.In so doing,this article makes a theoretical contribution by bringing a careful treatment of gender into the SDT framework.

The second demographic transition in Japan:a review of the evidence

Despite a half century of below-replacement fertility,Japan is typically not in­cluded in discussions and evaluations of the second demographic transition(SDT),a widely referenced framework for understanding family changes and attitudinal shifts associated with very low fertility.I address this limitation by drawing upon a range of published research and data sources to provide an empirical basis for thinking about how the Japanese experience does or does not conform to the gen­eral patterns of behavioral and attitudinal change associated with the SDT in the West.From this evidence,it seems clear that the prototypical pattern of family change in Northern and Western Europe has only partially emerged in Japan.The same is true of attitudes,particularly those related to gender.Consistent with de­pictions of the SDT in Europe,Japan has experienced substantial delays in mar­riage and childbearing along with notable increases in non-marital cohabitation and divorce.However,non-marital childbearing has remained at negligibly low levels and cohabiting unions have not emerged as an alternative to marriage.Attitudinal data show that endorsement of conventional family patterns and gender roles has declined,but remains at higher levels than in most SDT countries.Taken as a whole,these data describe a distinctive path to very low fertility in which universal forces of social and family change interact with strong normative expectations of two-parent families characterized by a clear gender division of labor.

Different pathways of the second demographic transition in four East Asian societies:evidence from the 2006 and 2016 East Asian Social Surveys

This study uses the 2006 and 2016 East Asian Social Surveys to map value changes related to the second demographic transition in China's Mainland,Japan,South Korea,and Taiwan.The study examines trends in attitudes towards cohabitation,childrearing,and divorce over a 10-year period in the four East Asian societies.The findings suggest that the second demographic transition,if any in East Asia,is an uneven process between societies,and China's Mainland stands out as the only society in which attitudes had become more conservative,even after controlling for compositional differences in population.In the other three societies,attitudes had shifted to be more liberal.Moreover,the study finds little evidence on the diffusion within societies,given their similar trends across different sociodemographic groups.From an ideational perspective,China's Mainland and the other three East Asian societies illustrated different patterns of attitude changes regarding marriage and family.From a behavioral perspective,trends in attitudes do not always align with demographic patterns at the macro level,especially in China's Mainland.More studies are needed to understand the nuanced differences in ideational shifts between societies and the relationship between ideational and behavioral changes in East Asia.

Challenge Facing China’s Economic Growth in Its Aging but not Affluent Era

Demographic transition has occurred more rapidly in China than in most developed countries. As the population ages, the growth rate of the working age population has started to decline and the absolute quantity of the working age population will begin to shrink after 2015, which will inevitably result in structural labor shortage. Under the circumstance where comparative advantage is still embodied in its labor-intensive commodities, timely and sufficient supply of a skilled labor force is vital for China to sustain fast economic growth.

Characteristics of Chinese population development from 1949 to 2018, and lessons learned

China’s population increased from 540 million in 1949 to 1.4 billion in 2018.Demo-graphic transition provides a theoretical framework to understand China’s popula-tion changes,and we can divide the history of China’s population development into three periods:the period of mortality decline-driven demographic transition(prior to 1970),the period of fertility decline-driven demographic transition(1970-1999),and post-demographic transition period(after 2000).This paper provides a histori-cal overview of China’s population development,and concludes by identifying the main characteristics of this development and the main lessons learned from the pro-cess of population development.

Social-ecological transformations of Inner Mongolia:a sustainability perspective

Introduction:Sustainability requires the reconciling of human needs with the healthy natural ecosystem,which should be achieved within the grand course of industrialization and modernization.Systematic transitions on demography,economy,technology,and institutions are required,while different civilizations may take their respective paths.In this study,we analyze the social-ecological transitions of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China during the past century,focusing on major changes in its environmental,demographic,and socioeconomic conditions.Results:A two-level social-ecological system analysis framework was proposed,and four stages of transition were identified:traditional nomadism,primitive industrial civilization,collectivization era,and economic reform/opendoor policy era.Our analysis showed that Inner Mongolia has made great achievements in its socioeconomic domains but is faced with numerous challenging environmental problems.Overconsumption of resources and failure to curtail ecological degradation may lead to a trap of unsustainability.Conclusions:However,the slowing-down population growth,improvements of the economic structure,and many new sustainability initiatives and strong support from the central government together give hope for a sustainable future of the region.

Population ageing and the impacts of the universal two-child policy on China’s socio-economy

The two-child policy was officially proclaimed in the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan and approved in March 2016.This article provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese demographic structure characterised by ageing with sub-replacement fertility.It argues that the universal two-child policy is timely and necessary for the New Normal economy.The policy has significance in relieving socio-economic pressure and promoting economic growth,for which it is not only a necessary premise but also a sufficient condition.Having reviewed the evolution of the demographic transition theory,this research undertakes a comparative analysis of different stages of demographic transition in different regions across the world.It further investigates the three stages of successful demographic transition in China.The universally adopted two-child policy,as it meets the requirements of demographic transition,is also inevitable for socio-economic development.

Westward movement of tertiary education resources along the Belt and Road

Nearly half of the Belt and Road countries are still in the opportunity window of demographic dividend.Based on the experiences of China and many other countries,the improvement of health and education level is necessary to transform the economic potential of the age structure into a demographic dividend.Therefore,in order to develop demographic dividend of the Belt and Road,it is important to increase the human capital investment in these countries.On the other hand,there are some problems in education resources allocations in China,especially in tertiary education resources,resulting in inefficient operation of educational resources and is unconducive to the promotion of tertiary education levels.Therefore,the governments in the Belt and Road region would think about policies and strategies to promote the redistribution of westward movement of tertiary education resources.