The purpose of this study is to correlate demography and socio-economic aspects at Irrigated Smallholder Agricultural Enterprises and their association with the Cultivation of Maize in order to determine its positive ...The purpose of this study is to correlate demography and socio-economic aspects at Irrigated Smallholder Agricultural Enterprises and their association with the Cultivation of Maize in order to determine its positive impacts at irrigated smallholders’ agricultural entrepreneurs’ household. Chi-square test was used as descriptive analysis method. The Fischer Exact tests were employed to test demography (gender, age, education, and income) in winter and summer production season of irrigated smallholder agricultural enterprises and their association with the cultivation of selected field crop (i.e. maize). The results show that gender results were not being statistically significant, as measured by the Phi measure of effect size, φ = 0.149, p = 0.011, and φ = 0.05, p = 0.392 in summer. As far as age is concern, it appears to be a statistically significant association between cultivating maize and age in winter, φ = 0.046, p = 0.730 in winter and φ = 0.172, p = 0.013. Education winter result not being statistically significant, the effect size showed a weak association, as measured by the Phi measure of effect size, φ = 0.112, p = 0.305 and φ = 0.035, p = 0.948 in summer. Income result not being statistically significant, as measured by the Phi measure of effect size, φ = 0.049, p = 0.399 and φ = 0.081, p = 0.166 in summer. In conclusion, the study shows that the development of best management practices must be based on a comprehensive analysis of the livelihoods and irrigated smallholder agricultural enterprise farming styles of participating irrigated smallholder agricultural entrepreneurs.展开更多
The main goal of this research is to assess the impact of race, age at diagnosis, sex, and phenotype on the incidence and survivability of acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) among patients in the United States. By takin...The main goal of this research is to assess the impact of race, age at diagnosis, sex, and phenotype on the incidence and survivability of acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) among patients in the United States. By taking these factors into account, the study aims to explore how existing cancer registry data can aid in the early detection and effective treatment of ALL in patients. Our hypothesis was that statistically significant correlations exist between race, age at which patients were diagnosed, sex, and phenotype of the ALL patients, and their rate of incidence and survivability data were evaluated using SEER*Stat statistical software from National Cancer Institute. Analysis of the incidence data revealed that a higher prevalence of ALL was among the Caucasian population. The majority of ALL cases (59%) occurred in patients aged between 0 to 19 years at the time of diagnosis, and 56% of the affected individuals were male. The B-cell phenotype was predominantly associated with ALL cases (73%). When analyzing survivability data, it was observed that the 5-year survival rates slightly exceeded the 10-year survival rates for the respective demographics. Survivability rates of African Americans patients were the lowest compared to Caucasian, Asian, Pacific Islanders, Alaskan Native, Native Americans and others. Survivability rates progressively decreased for older patients. Moreover, this study investigated the typical treatment methods applied to ALL patients, mainly comprising chemotherapy, with occasional supplementation of radiation therapy as required. The study demonstrated the considerable efficacy of chemotherapy in enhancing patients’ chances of survival, while those who remained untreated faced a less favorable prognosis from the disease. Although a significant amount of data and information exists, this study can help doctors in the future by diagnosing patients with certain characteristics. It will further assist the health care professionals in screening potential patients and early detection of cases. This could also save the lives of elderly patients who have a higher mortality rate from this disease.展开更多
We sampled twenty populations of the vulnera- ble endemic shrub or tree, Arbutus pavarii Pampan., at different elevations and aspects within the A1-Akhdar mountainous region of Libya. Our sampling sites were at elevat...We sampled twenty populations of the vulnera- ble endemic shrub or tree, Arbutus pavarii Pampan., at different elevations and aspects within the A1-Akhdar mountainous region of Libya. Our sampling sites were at elevations ranging from 285 to 738 m above sea level, and several different habitats: vallies (locally known as wadis), north- and south-facing slopes, and mountaintops. All individuals within each quadrat were studied. Population size and structure, and plant functional traits were assessed. None of the populations had a stable distribution of size classes. Some consisted mostly of small plants, with little or no fruit production; others consisted only of mid-sized and large plants, with high fruit production, but no juvenile recruitment. There was a significant increase in percent cover with increasing elevation; reproductive output (the number of fruits per branch and total number of fruits per individual) also generally increased with elevation. In some of these populations the lack of recruitment, and in others the failure to produce fruit, together constituted serious demographic threats. In light of these results, recommen- dations are made for conservation of this vulnerable endemic species.展开更多
Habitat transformation is identified as major threat to biodiversity loss globally,affecting threatened raptors.Changes in land use can alter the abundance and distribution of birds of prey by affecting habitat availa...Habitat transformation is identified as major threat to biodiversity loss globally,affecting threatened raptors.Changes in land use can alter the abundance and distribution of birds of prey by affecting habitat availability and quality.In this study,we used multivariate analyses to investigate the effect of habitat alteration on the demography of a declining Eastern Imperial Eagle(Aqufla heliaca),making assumptions for future population trajectories.We used the Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Poisson distribution and Log link function,searching a relationship between the demographic parameters and the landscape structure and possible effects of fragmentation.In our study area,habitat change affected dramatically permanent grasslands,shrinking their availability.As we expected,the share of grasslands in eagles’territories significantly affected occupancy rate,but not productivity and breeding frequency.We found that occupancy rate decreased significantly,while productivity and breeding frequency showed no trend.Modeling the effect of habitat alteration on Eastern Imperial Eagle demography,we found out that territory quality was a more powerful factor driving the response of a top predator to the alteration of favorite foraging habitats.Only the habitat quality in source territories had a significant positive effect on eagle productivity.We found that simple rules to predict adverse agricultural impact on territory abandonment or breeding productivity of a top predator were not reliable.Our results could be used for planning conservation of other large territorial raptors,facing the same type of threat.展开更多
Background: Documenting the entire lifetime of long-lived organisms requires splicing together short-term observations. Matrix demography provides a tool to calculate lifetime statistics, but large samples from juveni...Background: Documenting the entire lifetime of long-lived organisms requires splicing together short-term observations. Matrix demography provides a tool to calculate lifetime statistics, but large samples from juvenile to adult are needed, and few such studies have been done in tropical trees because high species diversity limits sample sizes. The 50-ha plot at Barro Colorado in Panama was designed to provide large samples, and with 30years of censuses, accurate population matrices can be constructed.Methods: In 31 abundant species, I divided all individuals≥1 cm dbh into 4 or 5 size class in each of seven censuses. Movements of stems between size classes over two censuses are termed transitions, and I constructed complete transition matrices for each species. From the matrices, I derived analytic solutions for lifetime demographic statistics. Expected adult lifespan from the sapling stage was the key statistic.Results: Expected adult lifespan from the sapling stage varied 100-fold over the 31 species, from 0.5 to 50 years,and maturation time varied from 19 to nearly 200 years. Species with the highest growth rates also had high death rates, and theoretical calculations of reproductive lifespan show that the fast-growing pioneer species have short expected adult lifespans relative to the average slow-growing, shade-tolerant species. Within the slowgrowth category, however, there was high variation in expected adult lifespan, and several shade-tolerant species under-performed the pioneers in terms of adult lifespan.Conclusions: Analytical solutions from population matrices allow theoretical analyses that integrate short-term growth records into lifespans of tropical trees. The analyses suggest that pioneer species must reproduce more successfully than shade-tolerant species to persist in the Barro Colorado forest. My next goal is to incorporate seed production and germination into lifetime matrix demography to test this hypothesis.展开更多
In the context of historical Palestine, the Palestinian and Jewish demography are deeply embedded (Goldsheider, 1991; Freidlander, 2002). The growth and structure of the populations are one of the most important too...In the context of historical Palestine, the Palestinian and Jewish demography are deeply embedded (Goldsheider, 1991; Freidlander, 2002). The growth and structure of the populations are one of the most important tools for the control of the territory (Dahlan, 1989). Jewish immigration was and is still considered as the single most important mean for the conquest of the land (Courbage, 2005). Yet this is only a partial truth (Fargues, 2000). Fertility, especially when it is natural at its peak or still very high is also a very significant asset, which is likely to reverse internal equilibrium among the different forces shaping the two societies (Courbage & Todd, 2011; Ettinger, 2011). Hence, Jews and Palestinians have embarked since decades into a demographic competition (Faraoune, personal communication, December 19, 1992; Anson & Avinoam, 1996), with this extraordinary result, that in a matter of a century (1948-2048) this small piece of land will have undergone the highest population growth on earth, equivalent to sub Saharan Africa (Faitelson, 2008; Courbage & Fargues, 1997). It is likely output is not less important to define the future nature of historical Palestine: one or two states (Baskin, 2005; Courbage, 2008)? And if the two states solution is in effect, what kind of states would it be? After presenting the recent trends of Palestinian demography in the context of historical Palestine since the first intifada and the aftermath of the second intifada, this essay will focus on future developments, i.e. the likely population dynamics of the Palestinian territory from 2011 until 2048, and of its different components, namely fertility. Palestinian population growth during the next four decades will be compared to that of the future Israeli population and the policy components of this differential population growth will be evaluated both in the context of historical Palestine and in the context of the Jewish State in its 1948 borders (Jews and Palestinians of 1948). The most serious demographic challenges, (which are not those of an overall "equilibrium" between Palestinian and Jewish populations as very often claimed), are very precisely delineated in the ground. These are, first, the question of the peopling of the settlements (Be-Tselem, 2002). their population is likely to explode from 560,000 settlers now to 1.7 million in 2048, thanks to their extremely high fertility, low mortality, high immigration and "population momentum" (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2013; Courbage, 2006). From 18% of the overall population of the West Bank they could reach 29% in 2048, a clear defiance to the possibility of statehood in Palestine. Besides, statehood in Palestine is also threatened by the fact that East-Jerusalem, the likely capital of the Palestinian state is also threatened by the expansionist demography of the Jewish settlers, both in the so-called "neighborhoods", those settlements close to Jerusalem but which are according to international law an integral part of the West Bank (annexed by Israel in 1967), and inside the Old city. In Jerusalem, besides Jewish immigration to the neighborhoods from the densely and poor areas of West Jerusalem, fertility trends have now been reversed to advantage of the Jews as compared to the Palestinians in the Holy city (Della Pergola, 2001). This presentation will deal also with the population trends of the Palestinian population from now on until 2048 (Dalen & Petersen, 2004; Courbage, 1999). Under the impact of a higher fertility, and a population momentum clearly to its benefit, the population of Gaza (all Palestinians) could approach the Palestinian population of the West Bank: 4.0 in Gaza, 4.3 in the WB (Clarens, 2011). Yet, the slight majority in the West Bank comes from the Palestinians in Jerusalem, whose political status is still vague. A larger share of the Palestinian population living in the Gaza strip rather than in the West bank is probably not devoid of political implications. For the policy makers it is not easy to run against demographic trends, especially when they are largely guided and decided by the other State which shares the same land. Yet, it is of utmost importance to be fully aware of the likely evolution of the demographic landscape in Palestine and to prepare the demographic but mostly non-demographic policy measures to counterbalance their effects.展开更多
Background: Tree demography is an essential indicator of various forest ecosystem services, and understanding its changes is critical for the sustainable management of forests. During the past four decades, China impl...Background: Tree demography is an essential indicator of various forest ecosystem services, and understanding its changes is critical for the sustainable management of forests. During the past four decades, China implemented unprecedented forest restoration projects, which altered tree demography by increasing the number of trees and introducing new species. However, it remains unclear how species composition has changed in China in response to the past forest restoration and demographical processes.Methods: We applied Forest Stability Index(FSI) and the relative change of FSI(%FSI) to describe the population dynamics of tree species and structure in China since 1998, using field-survey data collected from over 200,000plot-records from the 6th to 9th National Forest Inventories(NFIs).Results: The overall populations of both natural and planted forests have grown rapidly from 1998 to 2018, while the range of changes in the relative tree density was more variable for natural forests(ranging from-8.53% to42.46%) than for planted forests(ranging from-1.01% to 13.31%). The populations declined only in some of the tree species, including Betula platyphylla, Ulmus pumila, and Robinia pseudoacacia. In contrast, the populations of trees in the largest size-class either remained stable or expanded.Conclusions: Tree density of China?s forests(both natural and planted forests) generally expanded and the overall populations increased in most size classes, with greater increases occurred in planted forests. In contrasting to the global decline trends of large diameter trees, here we found no apparent decline for trees in the largest size-class in China, highlighting China?s success in improving forest health and forest adaptations to climate change. We advocate for more studies to reveal the mechanisms of the changes in tree demography, which will help to improve forest ecosystem services such as the carbon sequestration capacity.展开更多
BACKGROUND Anterior cruciate ligament(ACL)tears are common sports-related injuries.Their incidence is not the same either for all the sports or for the same sport across various nations.This information is maintained ...BACKGROUND Anterior cruciate ligament(ACL)tears are common sports-related injuries.Their incidence is not the same either for all the sports or for the same sport across various nations.This information is maintained by many sports leagues in their registries.However,very few nationwide registries exist for such injuries.This study is carried out to know the demographic characteristics of patients who underwent ACL reconstruction at our hospital in India.AIM To know the demographic characteristics of patients who underwent ACL reconstruction at a tertiary care hospital in India.METHODS All the patients who underwent ACL reconstruction from January 2020 to December 2021 were retrospectively studied.Patients with multi-ligament injuries or a history of previous knee surgery were excluded.The patients’history was obtained from the hospital records,they were interviewed telephonically,and online questionnaires were given.Their demographic data was analyzed and compared to the existing literature.RESULTS A total of 124 patients were operated on for ACL reconstruction during this period.The mean age of the patients was 27.97 years.One hundred and thirteen patients(91.1%)were male and 11(8.9%)were female.The majority of the patients(47.6%)sustained this injury by road traffic accidents(RTA)followed by sportsrelated injuries(39.5%).The commonest presenting complaint was giving way of the knee in 118 patients(95.2%).The mean duration from the injury to the first hospital visit among the patients was 290.1 d.The mean duration from the injury to surgery was 421.8 d.CONCLUSION ACL patients’demography is different in developing nations as compared to the developed world.RTA are the leading cause of ACL injuries and are followed by recreational sports as a cause.There is delayed access to healthcare leading to delayed diagnosis as well as even greater time to surgery.This,in turn,leads to poorer prognosis and longer rehabilitation.National registries for developing nations are the need of the hour due to the different demographics of ACL injuries in developing countries.展开更多
Background: This study was concerned with correlates of self-assessed health and wellness on ten dimensions including emotional, financial and physical health. All 10 self-ratings loaded on one factor with high intern...Background: This study was concerned with correlates of self-assessed health and wellness on ten dimensions including emotional, financial and physical health. All 10 self-ratings loaded on one factor with high internal reliability. Method: In all 506 adult participants, completed short measures of the bright side, Big Five traits (TIPI) and a short measure of the dark side, personality disorders (PID-5-BF). Results: Correlations and regressions suggested that wellness was related to sex, education and religious beliefs as well as four of five bright- and dark-side traits. Being Sanguine was most positively, and Choleric most negatively, associated with subjective wellness. Detachment and Negative Affect were the highest dark-side correlates. The final regression suggested that over a third of the variance in subjective wellness could be explained by four bright- and two dark-side factors. Conclusions: Personality factors, especially instability and negative affectivity, play a crucial role in all aspects of wellness. Implications and limitations are acknowledged.展开更多
Speculations are rife as to the exact aetiology of Type 1 diabetes mellitus,It is suggested that viruses and other agents precipitate this condition,induce vulnerability and the consequential development of adverse in...Speculations are rife as to the exact aetiology of Type 1 diabetes mellitus,It is suggested that viruses and other agents precipitate this condition,induce vulnerability and the consequential development of adverse infectious disorders,The disease incidence is increasing exponentially in geographically-determined precincts.It is a chronic,autoimmune metabolic disorder characterized by expansively deranged pancreatic beta-cells,insulin deficiency and hyperglycaemia.Certain environmental elements trigger the autoimmune pathways in genetically susceptible children and adolescents.Globally,diabetes is the most common chronic condition.Studies indicate that comorbidities,syndemics,specific patient status,exclusive treatment modalities,and consistent monitoring of blood glucose levels are critical for type 1 diabetes management.Type 1 diabetes is relatively less common than type 2 diabetes,but it poses greater morbidity and mortality than the latter.Research tends to determine the spatiotemporal variations of the disease,whether its incidence is increasing globally or restricted to a select population,and to estimate the magnitude of the alteration in incidence.Type 1 diabetes can pre-exist and remain undiagnosed in patients.It tends to worsen in comorbid states.Competent objective testing measures are pertinent for evaluation,appropriate and well-timed management of childhood type 1 diabetes for significant improvement in healthcare.Management of the disease using insulin or insulin analogues may induce side effects in the form of acute hypoglycemic episodes,central nervous system derangement,dementia,aggravated morbidity or mortality.Consistent self-monitoring blood glucose(SMBG)tool facilitates adjustments of timely insulin dose.In non-industrialised countries and vulnerable populations,latent constraints have revolved around the choice of,and access to medicinal drugs and high-tech systems in the prime management of type 1 diabetes and its sequelae.展开更多
文摘The purpose of this study is to correlate demography and socio-economic aspects at Irrigated Smallholder Agricultural Enterprises and their association with the Cultivation of Maize in order to determine its positive impacts at irrigated smallholders’ agricultural entrepreneurs’ household. Chi-square test was used as descriptive analysis method. The Fischer Exact tests were employed to test demography (gender, age, education, and income) in winter and summer production season of irrigated smallholder agricultural enterprises and their association with the cultivation of selected field crop (i.e. maize). The results show that gender results were not being statistically significant, as measured by the Phi measure of effect size, φ = 0.149, p = 0.011, and φ = 0.05, p = 0.392 in summer. As far as age is concern, it appears to be a statistically significant association between cultivating maize and age in winter, φ = 0.046, p = 0.730 in winter and φ = 0.172, p = 0.013. Education winter result not being statistically significant, the effect size showed a weak association, as measured by the Phi measure of effect size, φ = 0.112, p = 0.305 and φ = 0.035, p = 0.948 in summer. Income result not being statistically significant, as measured by the Phi measure of effect size, φ = 0.049, p = 0.399 and φ = 0.081, p = 0.166 in summer. In conclusion, the study shows that the development of best management practices must be based on a comprehensive analysis of the livelihoods and irrigated smallholder agricultural enterprise farming styles of participating irrigated smallholder agricultural entrepreneurs.
文摘The main goal of this research is to assess the impact of race, age at diagnosis, sex, and phenotype on the incidence and survivability of acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) among patients in the United States. By taking these factors into account, the study aims to explore how existing cancer registry data can aid in the early detection and effective treatment of ALL in patients. Our hypothesis was that statistically significant correlations exist between race, age at which patients were diagnosed, sex, and phenotype of the ALL patients, and their rate of incidence and survivability data were evaluated using SEER*Stat statistical software from National Cancer Institute. Analysis of the incidence data revealed that a higher prevalence of ALL was among the Caucasian population. The majority of ALL cases (59%) occurred in patients aged between 0 to 19 years at the time of diagnosis, and 56% of the affected individuals were male. The B-cell phenotype was predominantly associated with ALL cases (73%). When analyzing survivability data, it was observed that the 5-year survival rates slightly exceeded the 10-year survival rates for the respective demographics. Survivability rates of African Americans patients were the lowest compared to Caucasian, Asian, Pacific Islanders, Alaskan Native, Native Americans and others. Survivability rates progressively decreased for older patients. Moreover, this study investigated the typical treatment methods applied to ALL patients, mainly comprising chemotherapy, with occasional supplementation of radiation therapy as required. The study demonstrated the considerable efficacy of chemotherapy in enhancing patients’ chances of survival, while those who remained untreated faced a less favorable prognosis from the disease. Although a significant amount of data and information exists, this study can help doctors in the future by diagnosing patients with certain characteristics. It will further assist the health care professionals in screening potential patients and early detection of cases. This could also save the lives of elderly patients who have a higher mortality rate from this disease.
文摘We sampled twenty populations of the vulnera- ble endemic shrub or tree, Arbutus pavarii Pampan., at different elevations and aspects within the A1-Akhdar mountainous region of Libya. Our sampling sites were at elevations ranging from 285 to 738 m above sea level, and several different habitats: vallies (locally known as wadis), north- and south-facing slopes, and mountaintops. All individuals within each quadrat were studied. Population size and structure, and plant functional traits were assessed. None of the populations had a stable distribution of size classes. Some consisted mostly of small plants, with little or no fruit production; others consisted only of mid-sized and large plants, with high fruit production, but no juvenile recruitment. There was a significant increase in percent cover with increasing elevation; reproductive output (the number of fruits per branch and total number of fruits per individual) also generally increased with elevation. In some of these populations the lack of recruitment, and in others the failure to produce fruit, together constituted serious demographic threats. In light of these results, recommen- dations are made for conservation of this vulnerable endemic species.
基金funded by the LIFE Program of the European Union under the project’Restoration and sustainable management of Imperial Eagle’s foraging habitats in key Natura 2000 sites in Bulgaria’LIFE14 NAT/BG/001119。
文摘Habitat transformation is identified as major threat to biodiversity loss globally,affecting threatened raptors.Changes in land use can alter the abundance and distribution of birds of prey by affecting habitat availability and quality.In this study,we used multivariate analyses to investigate the effect of habitat alteration on the demography of a declining Eastern Imperial Eagle(Aqufla heliaca),making assumptions for future population trajectories.We used the Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Poisson distribution and Log link function,searching a relationship between the demographic parameters and the landscape structure and possible effects of fragmentation.In our study area,habitat change affected dramatically permanent grasslands,shrinking their availability.As we expected,the share of grasslands in eagles’territories significantly affected occupancy rate,but not productivity and breeding frequency.We found that occupancy rate decreased significantly,while productivity and breeding frequency showed no trend.Modeling the effect of habitat alteration on Eastern Imperial Eagle demography,we found out that territory quality was a more powerful factor driving the response of a top predator to the alteration of favorite foraging habitats.Only the habitat quality in source territories had a significant positive effect on eagle productivity.We found that simple rules to predict adverse agricultural impact on territory abandonment or breeding productivity of a top predator were not reliable.Our results could be used for planning conservation of other large territorial raptors,facing the same type of threat.
基金Numerous grants from National Science Foundation (US), the Smithsonian Institution, the Mac Arthur Foundation, and Earthwatch supported census work in the Barro Colorado 50-ha plotThe Center for Forest Science at the Morton Arboretum provided support for the author while writing
文摘Background: Documenting the entire lifetime of long-lived organisms requires splicing together short-term observations. Matrix demography provides a tool to calculate lifetime statistics, but large samples from juvenile to adult are needed, and few such studies have been done in tropical trees because high species diversity limits sample sizes. The 50-ha plot at Barro Colorado in Panama was designed to provide large samples, and with 30years of censuses, accurate population matrices can be constructed.Methods: In 31 abundant species, I divided all individuals≥1 cm dbh into 4 or 5 size class in each of seven censuses. Movements of stems between size classes over two censuses are termed transitions, and I constructed complete transition matrices for each species. From the matrices, I derived analytic solutions for lifetime demographic statistics. Expected adult lifespan from the sapling stage was the key statistic.Results: Expected adult lifespan from the sapling stage varied 100-fold over the 31 species, from 0.5 to 50 years,and maturation time varied from 19 to nearly 200 years. Species with the highest growth rates also had high death rates, and theoretical calculations of reproductive lifespan show that the fast-growing pioneer species have short expected adult lifespans relative to the average slow-growing, shade-tolerant species. Within the slowgrowth category, however, there was high variation in expected adult lifespan, and several shade-tolerant species under-performed the pioneers in terms of adult lifespan.Conclusions: Analytical solutions from population matrices allow theoretical analyses that integrate short-term growth records into lifespans of tropical trees. The analyses suggest that pioneer species must reproduce more successfully than shade-tolerant species to persist in the Barro Colorado forest. My next goal is to incorporate seed production and germination into lifetime matrix demography to test this hypothesis.
文摘In the context of historical Palestine, the Palestinian and Jewish demography are deeply embedded (Goldsheider, 1991; Freidlander, 2002). The growth and structure of the populations are one of the most important tools for the control of the territory (Dahlan, 1989). Jewish immigration was and is still considered as the single most important mean for the conquest of the land (Courbage, 2005). Yet this is only a partial truth (Fargues, 2000). Fertility, especially when it is natural at its peak or still very high is also a very significant asset, which is likely to reverse internal equilibrium among the different forces shaping the two societies (Courbage & Todd, 2011; Ettinger, 2011). Hence, Jews and Palestinians have embarked since decades into a demographic competition (Faraoune, personal communication, December 19, 1992; Anson & Avinoam, 1996), with this extraordinary result, that in a matter of a century (1948-2048) this small piece of land will have undergone the highest population growth on earth, equivalent to sub Saharan Africa (Faitelson, 2008; Courbage & Fargues, 1997). It is likely output is not less important to define the future nature of historical Palestine: one or two states (Baskin, 2005; Courbage, 2008)? And if the two states solution is in effect, what kind of states would it be? After presenting the recent trends of Palestinian demography in the context of historical Palestine since the first intifada and the aftermath of the second intifada, this essay will focus on future developments, i.e. the likely population dynamics of the Palestinian territory from 2011 until 2048, and of its different components, namely fertility. Palestinian population growth during the next four decades will be compared to that of the future Israeli population and the policy components of this differential population growth will be evaluated both in the context of historical Palestine and in the context of the Jewish State in its 1948 borders (Jews and Palestinians of 1948). The most serious demographic challenges, (which are not those of an overall "equilibrium" between Palestinian and Jewish populations as very often claimed), are very precisely delineated in the ground. These are, first, the question of the peopling of the settlements (Be-Tselem, 2002). their population is likely to explode from 560,000 settlers now to 1.7 million in 2048, thanks to their extremely high fertility, low mortality, high immigration and "population momentum" (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2013; Courbage, 2006). From 18% of the overall population of the West Bank they could reach 29% in 2048, a clear defiance to the possibility of statehood in Palestine. Besides, statehood in Palestine is also threatened by the fact that East-Jerusalem, the likely capital of the Palestinian state is also threatened by the expansionist demography of the Jewish settlers, both in the so-called "neighborhoods", those settlements close to Jerusalem but which are according to international law an integral part of the West Bank (annexed by Israel in 1967), and inside the Old city. In Jerusalem, besides Jewish immigration to the neighborhoods from the densely and poor areas of West Jerusalem, fertility trends have now been reversed to advantage of the Jews as compared to the Palestinians in the Holy city (Della Pergola, 2001). This presentation will deal also with the population trends of the Palestinian population from now on until 2048 (Dalen & Petersen, 2004; Courbage, 1999). Under the impact of a higher fertility, and a population momentum clearly to its benefit, the population of Gaza (all Palestinians) could approach the Palestinian population of the West Bank: 4.0 in Gaza, 4.3 in the WB (Clarens, 2011). Yet, the slight majority in the West Bank comes from the Palestinians in Jerusalem, whose political status is still vague. A larger share of the Palestinian population living in the Gaza strip rather than in the West bank is probably not devoid of political implications. For the policy makers it is not easy to run against demographic trends, especially when they are largely guided and decided by the other State which shares the same land. Yet, it is of utmost importance to be fully aware of the likely evolution of the demographic landscape in Palestine and to prepare the demographic but mostly non-demographic policy measures to counterbalance their effects.
基金supported by China National Science Foundation(No.32001166)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFD2200405)+1 种基金the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST(Nos.2019r059 and 003080)support from the Jiangsu Distinguished Professor program of the People’s Government of Jiangsu Province。
文摘Background: Tree demography is an essential indicator of various forest ecosystem services, and understanding its changes is critical for the sustainable management of forests. During the past four decades, China implemented unprecedented forest restoration projects, which altered tree demography by increasing the number of trees and introducing new species. However, it remains unclear how species composition has changed in China in response to the past forest restoration and demographical processes.Methods: We applied Forest Stability Index(FSI) and the relative change of FSI(%FSI) to describe the population dynamics of tree species and structure in China since 1998, using field-survey data collected from over 200,000plot-records from the 6th to 9th National Forest Inventories(NFIs).Results: The overall populations of both natural and planted forests have grown rapidly from 1998 to 2018, while the range of changes in the relative tree density was more variable for natural forests(ranging from-8.53% to42.46%) than for planted forests(ranging from-1.01% to 13.31%). The populations declined only in some of the tree species, including Betula platyphylla, Ulmus pumila, and Robinia pseudoacacia. In contrast, the populations of trees in the largest size-class either remained stable or expanded.Conclusions: Tree density of China?s forests(both natural and planted forests) generally expanded and the overall populations increased in most size classes, with greater increases occurred in planted forests. In contrasting to the global decline trends of large diameter trees, here we found no apparent decline for trees in the largest size-class in China, highlighting China?s success in improving forest health and forest adaptations to climate change. We advocate for more studies to reveal the mechanisms of the changes in tree demography, which will help to improve forest ecosystem services such as the carbon sequestration capacity.
文摘BACKGROUND Anterior cruciate ligament(ACL)tears are common sports-related injuries.Their incidence is not the same either for all the sports or for the same sport across various nations.This information is maintained by many sports leagues in their registries.However,very few nationwide registries exist for such injuries.This study is carried out to know the demographic characteristics of patients who underwent ACL reconstruction at our hospital in India.AIM To know the demographic characteristics of patients who underwent ACL reconstruction at a tertiary care hospital in India.METHODS All the patients who underwent ACL reconstruction from January 2020 to December 2021 were retrospectively studied.Patients with multi-ligament injuries or a history of previous knee surgery were excluded.The patients’history was obtained from the hospital records,they were interviewed telephonically,and online questionnaires were given.Their demographic data was analyzed and compared to the existing literature.RESULTS A total of 124 patients were operated on for ACL reconstruction during this period.The mean age of the patients was 27.97 years.One hundred and thirteen patients(91.1%)were male and 11(8.9%)were female.The majority of the patients(47.6%)sustained this injury by road traffic accidents(RTA)followed by sportsrelated injuries(39.5%).The commonest presenting complaint was giving way of the knee in 118 patients(95.2%).The mean duration from the injury to the first hospital visit among the patients was 290.1 d.The mean duration from the injury to surgery was 421.8 d.CONCLUSION ACL patients’demography is different in developing nations as compared to the developed world.RTA are the leading cause of ACL injuries and are followed by recreational sports as a cause.There is delayed access to healthcare leading to delayed diagnosis as well as even greater time to surgery.This,in turn,leads to poorer prognosis and longer rehabilitation.National registries for developing nations are the need of the hour due to the different demographics of ACL injuries in developing countries.
文摘Background: This study was concerned with correlates of self-assessed health and wellness on ten dimensions including emotional, financial and physical health. All 10 self-ratings loaded on one factor with high internal reliability. Method: In all 506 adult participants, completed short measures of the bright side, Big Five traits (TIPI) and a short measure of the dark side, personality disorders (PID-5-BF). Results: Correlations and regressions suggested that wellness was related to sex, education and religious beliefs as well as four of five bright- and dark-side traits. Being Sanguine was most positively, and Choleric most negatively, associated with subjective wellness. Detachment and Negative Affect were the highest dark-side correlates. The final regression suggested that over a third of the variance in subjective wellness could be explained by four bright- and two dark-side factors. Conclusions: Personality factors, especially instability and negative affectivity, play a crucial role in all aspects of wellness. Implications and limitations are acknowledged.
文摘Speculations are rife as to the exact aetiology of Type 1 diabetes mellitus,It is suggested that viruses and other agents precipitate this condition,induce vulnerability and the consequential development of adverse infectious disorders,The disease incidence is increasing exponentially in geographically-determined precincts.It is a chronic,autoimmune metabolic disorder characterized by expansively deranged pancreatic beta-cells,insulin deficiency and hyperglycaemia.Certain environmental elements trigger the autoimmune pathways in genetically susceptible children and adolescents.Globally,diabetes is the most common chronic condition.Studies indicate that comorbidities,syndemics,specific patient status,exclusive treatment modalities,and consistent monitoring of blood glucose levels are critical for type 1 diabetes management.Type 1 diabetes is relatively less common than type 2 diabetes,but it poses greater morbidity and mortality than the latter.Research tends to determine the spatiotemporal variations of the disease,whether its incidence is increasing globally or restricted to a select population,and to estimate the magnitude of the alteration in incidence.Type 1 diabetes can pre-exist and remain undiagnosed in patients.It tends to worsen in comorbid states.Competent objective testing measures are pertinent for evaluation,appropriate and well-timed management of childhood type 1 diabetes for significant improvement in healthcare.Management of the disease using insulin or insulin analogues may induce side effects in the form of acute hypoglycemic episodes,central nervous system derangement,dementia,aggravated morbidity or mortality.Consistent self-monitoring blood glucose(SMBG)tool facilitates adjustments of timely insulin dose.In non-industrialised countries and vulnerable populations,latent constraints have revolved around the choice of,and access to medicinal drugs and high-tech systems in the prime management of type 1 diabetes and its sequelae.