Effectiveness of Combined Application of Shock Index and Early Warning Scoring System in Patients with Acute Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage

Objective:To explore the effect of the combined application of the Shock Index(SI)and the Early Warning Score(EWS)in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding.Methods:Seventy patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding admitted to a hospital from June 2022 to May 2024 were selected and randomly divided into two groups:the control group and the observation group,with 35 patients in each group.The control group received conventional emergency care measures,while the observation group received SI combined with NEWS emergency care measures.The treatment effects in both groups were compared.Results:The observation group had shorter waiting times for consultation(4.45±1.59 minutes),intravenous access establishment(6.79±2.52 minutes),hemostasis time(4.41±1.52 hours),and hospital stays(8.39±2.13 days)compared to the control group,which had times of 5.46±1.34 minutes,8.41±2.16 minutes,5.16±1.47 hours,and 10.26±2.98 days,respectively.The differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).Before management,there were no significant differences in the levels of hemoglobin,prealbumin,and serum protein between the two groups(P>0.05).However,after systematic emergency management,the serum indexes in both groups significantly improved,with the observation group showing greater improvement than the control group,and these differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).In the observation group,only one case of cardiovascular complications occurred during the rescue period,with an incidence rate of 2.86%.In contrast,the control group experienced eight cases of complications,including hemorrhagic shock,anemia,multi-organ failure,cardiovascular complications,and gastrointestinal rebleeding,with an incidence rate of 22.85%.The difference between the groups was statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion:The application of SI combined with EWS emergency care measures in patients with acute gastrointestinal hemorrhage can effectively improve serum indexes,shorten resuscitation time and hospital stay,and reduce the risk of complications such as hemorrhagic shock,anemia,infection,multi-organ failure,cardiovascular complications,acute renal failure,and gastrointestinal rebleeding.This approach has positive clinical application value.

Early warning research on salt-alkalization desertification in western Songnen Plain

Desertification is an environmental issue in the world. The salt-alkalization desertification land area formed by both primary and secondary salt-alkalization has extended in a large scale, which has become a significant eco-environmental problem. Based on the characteristics of eco-environment and the situation of desertification in westem Songnen plain, this paper reports the analyzes of its formation in background and cause. An early waming system on the salt-alkalization desertification is established and the GIS technology is used to abstract the information of desertification evaluation index. Supported by the integrated technology of the GIS and ANN, the orientation and quantitative result of desertification are gained, which is helpful to the eco-environment protection and resource development in westem Songnen Plain.

The Innovation Research of Financial Early-Warning Index Measurement

The period economic fluctuation is vital for an enterprise to exist and further develop, it directly affect the enterprise financial health. So, it is significant to build up financial early-warning index and measure the warning condition that the enterprise faces and take the effective measures to eliminate. We criticize Altman’sZ calculating model and build up some new indexes for enterprise financial early-warning condition measuring and making sound decision.

Early Warning and Monitoring of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Using Baidu Search Index and Baidu Information Index in Guangxi,China

Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is an emerging infectious disease,and it is important to detect early and monitor the disease trend for policymakers to make informed decisions.We explored the predictive utility of Baidu Search Index and Baidu Information Index for early warning of COVID-19 and identified search keywords for further monitoring of epidemic trends in Guangxi.A time-series analysis and Spearman correlation between the daily number of cases and both the Baidu Search Index and Baidu Information Index were performed for seven keywords related to COVID-19 from January 8 to March 9,2020.The time series showed that the temporal distributions of the search terms“coronavirus,”“pneumonia”and“mask”in the Baidu Search Index were consistent and had 2 to 3 days'lead time to the reported cases;the correlation coefficients were higher than 0.81.The Baidu Search Index volume in 14 prefectures of Guangxi was closely related with the number of reported cases;it was not associated with the local GDP.The Baidu Information Index search terms“coronavirus”and“pneumonia”were used as frequently as 192,405.0 and 110,488.6 per million population,respectively,and they were also significantly associated with the number of reported cases(rs>0.6),but they fluctuated more than for the Baidu Search Index and had 0 to 14 days'lag time to the reported cases.The Baidu Search Index with search terms“coronavirus,”“pneumonia”and“mask”can be used for early warning and monitoring of the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Guangxi,with 2 to 3 days'lead time.

Study on early warning index of spatial deformation for high concrete dam

Owing to the deficiency in early warning for high concrete dam,a formula was established to characterize the deformation behavior of high concrete dam as a whole.The early warning index of spatial deformation was calculated by low probability principle on the basis of the deformation entropy formula proposed.The steps were as follows.Firstly,the probability method was utilized to define the degree of order and degree of chaos for each survey point.Secondly,the weight distribution among the survey points was calculated by projection pursuit analysis.Thirdly,the formula of holistic deformation entropy,which can represent the degree of order of high concrete dam,was established on the basis of synergetics and information entropy.Lastly,the early warning index of deformation entropy was computed by low probability method based on series of calculated deformation entropy values.An example showed that the dynamic property of deformation entropy is in accordance with both environmental variables and deflection deformation.Moreover,deformation entropy can be used to improve warning ability and safety management for high concrete dam.

Comparing 11 early warning scores and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department

BACKGROUND:This study aimed to evaluate the discriminatory performance of 11 vital sign-based early warning scores(EWSs)and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department(ED).METHODS:We performed a retrospective study on consecutive adult patients with an infection over 3 months in a public ED in Hong Kong.The primary outcome was sepsis(Sepsis-3 definition)within 48 h of ED presentation.Using c-statistics and the DeLong test,we compared 11 EWSs,including the National Early Warning Score 2(NEWS2),Modified Early Warning Score,and Worthing Physiological Scoring System(WPS),etc.,and three shock indices(the shock index[SI],modified shock index[MSI],and diastolic shock index[DSI]),with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome(SIRS)and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(qSOFA)in predicting the primary outcome,intensive care unit admission,and mortality at different time points.RESULTS:We analyzed 601 patients,of whom 166(27.6%)developed sepsis.NEWS2 had the highest point estimate(area under the receiver operating characteristic curve[AUROC]0.75,95%CI 0.70-0.79)and was significantly better than SIRS,qSOFA,other EWSs and shock indices,except WPS,at predicting the primary outcome.However,the pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS2≥5 for the prediction of sepsis were 0.45(95%CI 0.37-0.52)and 0.88(95%CI 0.85-0.91),respectively.The discriminatory performance of all EWSs and shock indices declined when used to predict mortality at a more remote time point.CONCLUSION:NEWS2 compared favorably with other EWSs and shock indices in early sepsis prediction but its low sensitivity at the usual cut-off point requires further modification for sepsis screening.

The convergence epidemic volatility index(cEVI)as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic

This manuscript introduces the convergence Epidemic Volatility Index(cEVI),a modifi-cation of the recently introduced Epidemic Volatility Index(EVI),as an early warning tool for emerging epidemic waves.cEVI has a similar architectural structure as EVI,but with an optimization process inspired by a Geweke diagnostic-type test.Our approach triggers an early warning based on a comparison of the most recently available window of data samples and a window based on the previous time frame.Application of cEVI to data from the COVID-19 pandemic data revealed steady performance in predicting early,intermediate epidemic waves and retaining a warning during an epidemic wave.Furthermore,we present two basic combinations of EVI and cEVI:(1)their disjunction cEVI+that respectively identifies waves earlier than the original index,(2)their conjunction cEVIthat results in higher accuracy.Combination of multiple warning systems could potentially create a surveillance umbrella that would result in early implementation of optimal outbreak interventions.

A new early warning method for dam displacement behavior based on non-normal distribution function

Traditional methods for early warning of dam displacements usually assume that residual displacements follow a normal distribution.This assumption deviates from the reality,thereby affecting the reliability of early warning results and leading to misjudgments of dam displacement behavior.To solve this problem,this study proposed an early warning method using a non-normal distribution function.A new early warning index was developed using cumulative distribution function(CDF)values.The method of kernel density estimation was used to calculate the CDF values of residual displacements at a single point.The copula function was used to compute the CDF values of residual displacements at multiple points.Numerical results showed that,with residual displacements in a non-normal distribution,the early warning method proposed in this study accurately reflected the dam displacement behavior and effectively reduced the frequency of false alarms.This method is expected to aid in the safe operation of dams.

Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Prediction and Early Warning Indicators of Short-term Severe Convection Weather in Ulanqab City

Based on the disaster reports,NCEP2.5X2.5 reanalysis data and radiosonde data of 11 national stations in Ulanqab region from June to August during 2012-2017,the weather situation classification and warning indicators of thunderstorm and gale,hail and short-term heavy rainfall were studied.The results show that the cold vortex weather situation was easy to produce hail,and the falling area of severe convection could be found in the downstream of the cold vortex,the intersection area of jet stream at 200 and 500 hPa,and the wet area side of the 700 hPa main line.The cold trough type weather situation was easy to produce thunderstorm and gale,and the falling area of severe convection appeared on the right side of the upper jet stream axis,the left side of the lower jet stream axis,the wet side of the 700 hPa main line,and the east of the shear line at 700 hPa.The weather situation of the low trough and subtropical high type was dominated by short-term rainstorm,and the falling area of severe convection was on the right side of upper jet stream at 200 hPa,the left side of the low southeast jet stream,and the wet side of the 700 hPa main line.The warning index thresholds of the total index,the temperature change at 850-500 hPa with height,the height of 0 and-20℃layer,lifting condensation height,temperature dew point difference and mixing ratio were highly reliable.

Designing of Commercial Bank Loans Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Networks

According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loaning corporation. Except the structure description of the system structure the demonstration of attemptive designing is also elaborated.

Reviewing the Oceanic Nino Index(ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for El Nino’s Impacts

NOAA’s Oceanic Nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months,encompassing both the beginning and end of an El Nino episode.The first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5℃suggests with a high probability that an El Nino could emerge,but for heightened warnings,one must wait for several months.In this article,we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7℃identifies a tipping point at which the El Nino event becomes locked in,which can provide additional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision makers.Our preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7℃value could serve as a credible marker of El Nino’s locked-in phase,which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5℃El Nino onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for El Nino’s foreseeable societal and ecological impacts.

大型危岩体崩塌灾害早期监测预警技术研究综述

作为中国常见的一种地质灾害,大型危岩崩塌成因复杂、分布范围广、隐蔽性和突发性强、危害性大,其早期预警一直难以实现。通过总结岩体崩塌灾害失稳机理与预警模型可知,开展岩桥结构面损伤识别及静力学-动力学-环境量参量(SDEI)的综合性监测技术研究是实现大型危岩体崩塌灾害早期监测预警的关键所在,而基于分离破坏前兆识别的早期预警机制研究是提高崩塌灾害预警时效性的有效手段之一。随着微机电系统与云边融合技术的发展,在未来有望形成一套稳定性动态评价、失稳工况预测与失稳时间预测模型实时联动的多元预警新范式。与此同时,还需通过不断丰富大型危岩崩塌等脆性破坏灾害预警技术体系,实现危岩体预警等级、稳定性状态、失稳工况、失稳时间的实时分析,进而有效解决大型危岩体崩塌灾害科学精准防控与智慧化应急决策的双重难题。最后,针对目前崩塌灾害早期监测预警研究中存在的技术瓶颈问题,提出具体的发展策略与应对措施,以期为中国地质灾害高风险区更好地应对大型危岩体崩塌灾害提供一些参考。

督导式预警性护理模式对Ⅱ型呼吸衰竭患者的作用效果

目的探讨督导式预警性护理模式在Ⅱ型呼吸衰竭患者中的应用价值。方法选取南阳市第一人民医院2022年1月至2023年3月就诊的136例Ⅱ型呼吸衰竭患者,根据护理方法分为研究组(68例)和常规组(68例)。常规组接受常规护理干预,研究组在常规组基础上联合督导式预警性护理模式,比较两组血气指标[动脉血氧分压(PaO_(2))、动脉血二氧化碳分压(PaCO_(2))]、肺功能[第1秒用力呼气容积(FEV_(1))、用力肺活量(FVC)、最大通气量(MVV)]、负性情绪[焦虑自评量表(SAS)、抑郁自评量表(SDS)]、睡眠质量[匹兹堡睡眠质量量表(PSQI)]、运动恐惧[恐动坦帕评分(TSK)]、并发症发生率。结果干预后研究组PaO_(2)、FEV_(1)、FVC、MVV高于常规组,研究组PaCO_(2)低于常规组(P<0.05);干预后研究组SAS、TSK、SDS、PSQI评分低于常规组(P<0.05);研究组并发症总发生率低于常规组(P<0.05)。结论督导式预警性护理模式可减轻Ⅱ型呼吸衰竭患者运动恐惧、负性情绪,改善患者血气指标、肺功能,提升患者睡眠质量,降低并发症发生率。

廊坊市雷暴大风多普勒雷达特征指标预警应用分析

利用北京、天津和沧州多普勒天气雷达对2010—2019年廊坊市发生的29次雷暴大风天气过程中的阵风锋、径向速度大值区、垂直累积液态水含量(VIL)≥40 kg·m^(-2)等预警指标进行验证分析,结果表明:51.9%的站次出现了阵风锋,其中61.0%的雷暴大风出现在主体回波移动前方中部到右侧;17 m·s^(-1)以上大风速区作为预警指标,预警的平均提前量达47.2 min。100%的弓形回波雷暴大风出现前上游及可能影响区域存在≥17 m·s^(-1)的大风速区,以此发布预警可提前37.1 min;71.4%的雷暴大风站点上空或10 km范围内VIL≥40 kg·m^(-2),平均预警提前量最高,达到52.7 min;依据带状回波前侧或右前侧出现阵风锋发布预警的平均提前量为60.6 min。73.7%的块状回波雷暴大风天气上游及可能影响区域有≥17 m·s^(-1)的大风速区。结合上游及可能影响区域≥17 m·s^(-1)和≥20 m·s^(-1)大风速区、阵风锋、VIL≥40 kg·m^(-2)出现位置可以提前30~60 min发布雷暴大风预警信号,且可更加精准地预测灾害性大风的落区、出现时间和强度。

基于智能索引算法的集控设备事故辅助预警方法研究

为了保障电力集控中心设备正常运转,针对信息检索效率较差、电压偏差控制效果较差的问题,研究基于智能索引算法的集控设备事故辅助预警方法。利用R-树索引算法检索集控设备运行数据集内设备事故数据;计算集控设备事故数据状态向量间的相似度,将该相似度组成相似度向量后,利用滑动窗口算法计算集控设备事故辅助预警阈值,当集控设备事故数据状态向量相似度低于该阈值时,则向用户发出设备事故辅助报警。实验结果表明,该方法采集集控设备电压偏差仅为0.05 V左右,可有效采集集控设备运行数据;检索设备事故信息较为迅速和准确。

电动汽车与充电设备充电安全预警研究综述

随着全球新能源技术的大力发展,电动汽车及其配套充电设施日益普及化。电动汽车自燃事故与充电安全问题也备受关注。文中从充电安全因素的视角出发,深入地梳理总结了近年来电动汽车与充电设备安全预警研究方法。首先,对充电安全影响因素进行了详细的分类,并对现有的充电安全预警方法成熟度进行了总结与探讨。然后,归纳了预警模型精度与预警误差等评估指标。接着,基于真实的充电订单数据与工单数据对现有模型进行了整体评估与对比分析。最后,对电动汽车与充电设备充电安全预警的后续研究工作进行了展望。

盾构法隧洞工程的施工进度预警方法

隧洞盾构施工投资金额大,施工难度高,项目管理任务复杂,工期延误会带来巨大经济损失,因此,科学有效的施工进度预警能极大地为隧洞工程节省时间和造价成本.首先根据工程实际情况设立施工进度预警指标和警度标准,并建立了施工进度延误预警模型,通过计算当前的工程施工进度延误程度,判断出未来的影响趋势,并根据延误程度的轻重结合警度预报给出不同的预警信号.进一步采用BIM软件构建该隧洞的三维模型,并对隧洞进行4D施工进度模拟,以不同颜色展示警度差异,可实现施工进度预警的可视化管理.将此模型应用到西霞院灌区工程穿沁隧洞典型盾构施工段中,计算出该隧洞已完工部分的施工进度延误程度以及影响趋势,并通过BIM模型直观显示了预警结果.

基于ARIMA模型的矿井灾害预测方法研究

矿井灾害频发是影响我国煤炭产业发展的重要问题之一,灾前预警技术是目前应对这一问题的主要方法。为进一步提升矿井灾害监测预警能力,提出了基于ARIMA模型的矿井灾害预测方法研究。通过确立灾害风险监测指标构建了安全态势评估指标体系,基于时序预测法建立了灾害预测评估模型,经模型定阶及训练等过程确定最佳ARIMA预测模型参数。通过研究模型残差的正态性分布从而得到预测模型可靠度,将ARIMA(10,0,0)模型与时间序列拟合后进行自相关图和偏自相关图分析,得到了风险灾害未来短期预测结果;提出了“红橙黄蓝绿”5级灾害预警等级和准则,并进行了现场应用试验,结果证明,ARIMA模型对未来值的预测具有较高准确性,系统能及时对灾害进行预测和分级响应,可实现对矿井灾害的风险判别和预测预警。

不同评估工具对急性肺栓塞病人预后的预测价值比较

目的:比较改良早期预警评分(MEWS)、简化肺栓塞严重指数(sPESI)、日内瓦预后评估指数(Geneva评分)、生理评分系统(PSS)4种评估工具对急性肺栓塞(APE)病人预后的预测价值。方法:回顾性分析2016年1月1日—2020年1月1日在宁夏医科大学总医院呼吸与危重症医学科住院的325例急性肺栓塞病人资料,根据其预后分为好转组与死亡组,分别统计其上述4种临床评分,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线比较4种评估工具对急性肺栓塞病人预后的预测价值。结果:325例病人的病死率为10.46%。死亡组MEWS、sPESI、Geneva评分、PSS评分均高于好转组(P<0.05);MEWS、sPESI、Geneva评分、PSS的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.754,0.682,0.794,0.627;其中,Geneva评分的ROC曲线下面积最大(P<0.05)。结论:MEWS、sPESI、Geneva评分、PSS 4种评估工具对急性肺栓塞病人早期预后的评估均具有一定应用价值;其中,Geneva评分预测效能优于MEWS、sPESI、PSS。