Risk assessment of coastal flooding disaster by storm surge based on Elevation-Area method and hydrodynamic models:Taking Bohai Bay as an example

The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined.With increasing global sealevel due to climate change,the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently,especially in coastal lowland with land subsidence.Therefore,the risk assessment of such inundation for these areas is of great significance for the sustainable socio-economic development.In this paper,the authors use Elevation-Area method and Regional Ocean Model System(ROMS)model to assess the risk of the inundation of Bohai Bay by storm surge.The simulation results of Elevation-Area method show that either a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can inundate coastal areas exceeding 8000 km^(2);the numerical simulation results based on hydrodynamics,considering ground friction and duration of the storm surge high water,show that a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can only inundate an area of over 2000 km^(2),which is far less than 8000 km^(2);while,when taking into account the land subsidence and sea level rise,the very inundation range will rapidly increase by 2050 and 2100.The storm surge will greatly impact the coastal area within about 10-30 km of the Bohai Bay,in where almost all major coastal projects are located.The prompt response to flood disaster due to storm surge is urgently needed,for which five suggestions have been proposed based on the geological background of Bohai Bay.This study may offer insight into the development of the response and adaptive plans for flooding disasters caused by storm surge.

Regional Design Storm and Flood Modelling—Risk Implications in Ungauged Catchments

Most planned developments in a catchment for control of excess water using a culvert, bridge or dam spillway are located at a site in a stream where there are no discharge measurements. Even though, for gauged catchments a number of established flood frequency models and rainfall-runoff models do exist, for ungauged catchments mostly regional flood frequency and event-based rainfall-runoff models are used, which depend on regional parameters. In this paper, a regional approach for design floods is presented and risk implication for design of drainage structures assessed. A case study in light of the above has been considered at four ungauged sites in the Limpopo Drainage Basin in north-eastern Botswana.

Potential morphological responses of an artificial beach to a flood in extreme events: field observation and numerical modelling

Conch Island is a typical artificial island at the Tanghe Estuary in Bohai Sea,China.To improve natural environment and boost local tourism,beach nourishment will be applied to its north-western shore.The projected beach is landward and opposite to the Jinmeng Bay Beach.Nowadays,with climate changes,frequent heavy rainfalls in Hebei Province rise flood hazards at the Tanghe Estuary.Under this circumstance,potential influences on the projected beach of a flood are investigated for sustainable managements.A multi-coupled model is established and based on the data from field observations,where wave model,flow model and multifraction sediment transport model are included.In addition,the impacts on the projected beach of different components in extreme events are discussed,including the spring tides,storm winds,storm waves,and sediment inputs.The numerical results indicate the following result.(1)Artificial islands protect the coasts from erosion by obstructing landward waves,but rise the deposition risks along the target shore.(2)Flood brings massive sediment inputs and leads to scours at the estuary,but the currents with high sediment concentration contribute to the accretions along the target shore.(3)The projected beach mitigates flood actions and reduces the maximum mean sediment concentration along the target shore by 20%.(4)The storm winds restrict the flood and decrease the maximum mean sediment concentration by 21%.With the combined actions of storm winds and waves,the maximum value further declines by 38%.(5)A quadratic polynomial relationship between the deposition depths and the maximum sediment inputs with flood is established for estimations on the potential morphological changes after the flood process in extreme events.For the uncertainty of estuarine floods,continuous monitoring on local hydrodynamic variations and sediment characteristics at Tanghe Estuary is necessary.

Improved PSO algorithm based on chaos theory and its application to design flood hydrograph

The deficiencies of basic particle swarm optimization （bPSO） are its ubiquitous prematurity and its inability to seek the global optimal solution when optimizing complex high-dimensional functions. To overcome such deficiencies, the chaos-PSO （COSPSO） algorithm was established by introducing the chaos optimization mechanism and a global particle stagnation-disturbance strategy into bPSO. In the improved algorithm, chaotic movement was adopted for the particles＇ initial movement trajectories to replace the former stochastic movement, and the chaos factor was used to guide the particles＇ path. When the global particles were stagnant, the disturbance strategy was used to keep the particles in motion. Five benchmark optimizations were introduced to test COSPSO, and they proved that COSPSO can remarkably improve efficiency in optimizing complex functions. Finally, a case study of COSPSO in calculating design flood hydrographs demonstrated the applicability of the improved algorithm.

Mountain Effect and Differences in Storm Floods between Northern and Southern Sources of the Songhua River Basin

In this study, the differences in annual rainstorm changes in the Second Songhua River Basin and the Nenjiang River basin and their causes were compared from the perspective of mountain effects. The following results were drawn: (1) Altitude effect is the primary factor leading to increased rainstorms in the southern source; (2) Slope effect primarily leads to differences of the weather systems in the two sources, and thus cause the difference of the rainstorms; (3) Slope effect is responsible for the greater fluctuation in the observed floods in the southern source. These landform differences eventually lead to the differences in the characteristics of floods in the southern and northern sources. Commensurability method was used to identify the period of rainstorms in the southern and northern sources. The results showed that although rainstorms do not appear at the same time in the two sources they are characteristic of a 10 years' period in both areas. These results can serve as hydrological references for flood control and long-term flood disaster predictions.

Impacts of water surface area of watershed on design flood

In order to analyze the impact of the water surface area of a watershed on the design flood, the watershed was classified into a land watershed and a water surface watershed for flood flow calculation at the same time interval. Then, the design flood of the whole watershed was obtained by adding the two flood flows together. Using this method, we calculated design floods with different water surface areas of three reservoirs and analyzed the impact of water surface area on the flood volume and peak flow. The results indicate that larger water surface areas lead to greater impacts on the flood volume and peak flow. For the same watershed area, the impact of water surface area on the flood volume and peak flow is positively proportional to the flood frequency, i.e., the higher the frequency, the greater the impact becomes.

Uncertainty on Design Critical Rainfall for Flash Flood Early Warning:A Case Study of South Branch Watershed of Censhui

Critical rainfall estimation for early warning of rainstorm-induced flash flood is an inverse rainstorm-runoff process based on warning discharge threshold for a warning station of interest in a watershed; the key aspects of critical rainfall include rainfall amount and rainfall duration. Antecedent moisture content and storm pattern affects highly the estimation of critical rainfall. Using hydrological modeling technique with detailed subbasin delineation and manual for design rainstorm-runoff computation,this study first introduced basic concept and analysis methods on critical rainfall for flash flood early warning,and then investigated the responses of flash flood warning critical rainfall to antecedent moisture content and storm pattern. Taking South Branch Watershed of Censhui in Hunan Province as an example,critical rainfall in scenarios of typical antecedent moisture content and storm patterns was estimated at 3 warning stations of interest in this watershed. This research illustrates that both antecedent and storm pattern play important role in the estimation of critical rainfall and enough attention should also be paid to these factors when a decision to be made on whether a warning to be issued or not.

Google Earth-based dynamic visualization system for storm surge flood routing

To describe the dynamic process of flood routing intuitively and realistically when storm surge disaster occurs,a method for ArcGIS data and Google Earth(GE) data integration is proposed,which realizes the importing and integrating of basic geographic information into GE. Based on SketchUp and AutoCAD software,threedimension(3D) visualization of seawall and other tidal defense structures is achieved. By employing Microsoft Foundation Class Library(MFC),the related system modules and storm surge flood routing dynamic visualization system are developed. Therefore,dynamic visualization of flood routing process and interactive query of submerged area and inundated depth are implemented. A practical application case study of Tianjin Binhai New Area provides decision-making support for coastal seawall planning and storm surge disaster prevention and reduction.

Response of Flash Flood Early Warning Critical Rainfall to Storm Pattern in South Branch of Censhui Watershed

Critical rainfall estimation for early warning of rainstorm-induced flash flood is an inverse rainstorm-runoff process based on warning discharge threshold for a warning station of interest in a watershed. The key aspects of critical rainfall include rainfall amount and rainfall duration. Storm pattern affects highly the estimation of critical rainfall. Using hydrological modeling technique with detailed sub-basin delineation and manual for design rainstorm-runoff computation, this study first introduced basic concept and analysis methods on critical rainfall for flash flood early warning, then, investigated the responses of flash flood warning critical rainfall to storm pattern. Taking south branch of Censhui watershed in China as an example, critical rainfall in case of typical storm patterns for early warning of rainstorm-induced flash flood were estimated at 3 warning stations. This research illustrates that storm pattern plays important role in the estimation of critical rainfall and enough attention should also be paid to storm pattern when making a decision on whether a warning to be issued or not.

The Numerical Simulation of Storm-Surge and Coastal Flooding in Western Taiwan： A Case Study of 2007 Typhoon SEPAT

A numerical model for simulating storm surge with nested grid system has been applied to hindcast the coastal flooding on both sides of Taiwan Strait. The simulation results can be used to understand the transport variation and the inundation distribution induced by the storm surge on the interested area during typhoon invades. The case in this study is Typhoon SEPAT, which passed through central Taiwan in 2007. The transport characteristics through Taiwan Strait under the influence of Typhoon SEPAT were discussed by comparing the field observations and numerical simulations during the typhoon period. The results indicate that the surge height of Typhoon SEPAT did not respond to the peak of wind waves accompanied with 15 hrs time lag. According to the influence of dynamical forces on the storm surge in Taiwan Strait, the onshore wind is the dominant role of coastal inundation during this typhoon event in Taiwan Strait. By observing the inundation map through the typhoon period, the coasts of Yulin County are verified to be the most serious affected area in the vicinity of Taiwan Strait.

Design flood of ungauged basins based on DEM

In this paper,the northern mountainous area of Fuzhou City which is an ungauged basin has been taken for example to discuss the method of design flood calculation by means of combining the DEM(digital elevation model) and the Xin'anjiang Model(three components).The problem of estimating the parameters of the runoff model has been solved by using the parameters of the reference station.In the conflux calculation,the isochrones are obtained by DEM which helps to avoid the cumbersome work of drawing them on the map.With the establishment of the digital elevation model throughout the country,it is practically significant to use it in the hydrological estimation.

Research on Flood Control Design Based on Joint Distribution of Flood Levels and Flood Peak Discharges

The return level of the joint distribution of flood levels and flood peak discharges was analyzed by Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard copula and Kendall distribution functions.Using the annual maximum level(H)and discharge(Q)of flood peak at Boluo Hydrologic Station in the Dongjiang River in last 56 years,the"OR"return period,"AND"return period and Kendall return period of their joint distribution and the most likely design flood value were calculated.The main conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows:the Kendall return period can more accurately reflect the risk rate of the combination of flood elements,relative to"OR"return period and"AND"return period.The design value of univariate flood element based on the current specification can meet the design standard.While the design value calculated according to"OR"return period was on the high side,and the design value calculated by the"AND"return period was on low side.Based on the principle of maximum probability,the calculated design value of Kendall return period under the different combinations of flood peak discharge and water level can provide new options for flood control project safety and risk management.

Assessment of Land Erosion and Sediment Accumulation Caused by Runoff after a Flash-Flooding Storm Using Topographic Profiles and Spectral Indices

This research deals with the characterization of areas associated with flash floods and erosion caused by severe rainfall storm and sediment transport and accumulation using topographic attributes and profiles, spectral indices (SI), and principal component analysis (PCA). To achieve our objectives, topographic attributes and profiles were retrieved from ASTER-V2 DEM. PCA and nine SI were derived from two Landsat-OLI images acquired before and after the flood-storm. The images data were atmospherically corrected, sensor radiometric drift calibrated, and geometric and topographic distortions rectified. For validation purposes, the acquired photos during the flood-storm, lithological and geological maps were used. The analysis of approximately 100 colour composite combinations in the RGB system permitted the selection of two combinations due to their potential for characterizing soil erosion classes and sediment accumulation. The first considers the “Intensity, NDWI and NMDI”, while the second associates form index (FI), brightness index (BI) and NDWI. These two combinations provide very good separating power between different levels of soil erosion and degradation. Moreover, the derived erosion risk and sediment accumulation map based on the selected spectral indices segmentation and topographic attributes and profiles illustrated the tendency of water accumulation in the landscape, and highlighted areas prone to both fast moving and pooling water. In addition, it demonstrated that the rainfall, the topographic morphology and the lithology are the major contributing factors for flash flooding, catastrophic inundation, and erosion risk in the study area. The runoff-water power delivers vulnerable topsoil and contributes strongly to the erosion process, and then transports soil material and sediment to the plain areas through waterpower and gravity. The originality of this research resides in its simplicity and rapidity to provide a solid basis strategy for regional policies to address the real causes of problems and risks in developing countries. Certainly, it can help in the improvement of the management of water regulation structures to develop a methodology to maximize the water storage capacity and to reduce the risks caused by floods in the Moroccan Atlas Mountain (Guelmim region).

基于HEC-RAS的陇南山地山洪灾害风险图优化研究

短历时山洪是威胁陇南山地交通和村镇安全的重要灾害之一。为提高该地区防灾减灾能力,通过不同雨强计算出洪水淹没损失程度,利用洪水风险区划图指导当地群众预防山洪灾害具有重要的科学意义。基于HEC-RAS水文分析方法,结合GIS软件模拟了流域洪水淹没过程,以陇南山地蒲家沟为研究对象,在5、10、50、100 a一遇设计雨量条件下,综合考虑坡度、土地类型、损失率、水位和流速等多种因素,对传统洪水风险区划图进行优化。结果表明,相比传统方法绘制的风险区划图,优序图法优化后的风险区划图更加重视承灾体的受影响程度,且解决了传统风险区划图中小区域风险等级跨度大,风险等级难以定级的缺点。优化后的风险区划图,上中游无人区风险等级降低,下游人类活动区域风险等级更加明确。以马泉村王家咀为例,在50 a一遇的设计雨量下,传统方法绘制的风险区划图其划分结果涵盖5个风险等级,各区域面积差距不显著,难以确定最终的风险等级。而优序图法优化后的风险区划图划分结果更加集中,王家咀高风险区域面积不足中风险的4%,王家咀风险区域可以明确地定位到中风险。文中优序图法优化后的风险区划图在实用性和适应性上更具优势,可以为小流域山洪预警预报和防灾减灾工作提供帮助。

基于大语言模型辅助的防洪调度规则标签设计方法

防洪调度规则的信息抽取对于防洪调度自动化具有重要意义,而标签体系设计在信息抽取任务中至关重要。一般的设计方式经常由于理解偏差和疏漏,导致设计出来的标签体系存在过度概括、不全面和不易区分等问题,这些问题被称为标签体系的非完美性。针对这一问题,本研究重点面向防洪调度文本中的规则抽取,提出了一种创新性的非完美标签优化方法,旨在改进文本信息抽取的标签设计方法。方法利用大语言模型进行辅助,通过标签细化、标签生成和标签更名等措施,来提高标签的准确性和表达能力。此外,本文还提出了一种针对数据集标签较多的实体关系三元组分组抽取方法。通过对实体关系三元组进行分组,并按照分组训练模型与识别结果,有效改善了数据集标签较多情况下模型的信息抽取效果。最终,研究利用Neo4j形成了可视化的防洪调度知识图谱。本文研究成果为后续的防洪调度工作以及相关的知识抽取工作提供了基础资源,对防洪调度领域的知识抽取进行了探索。

基于DEM的陕西省中小流域设计洪水软件开发

为规范和高效简捷地计算暴雨推求设计洪水,避免烦琐的查表和手工计算,针对陕西省中小流域设计洪水软件的空白,研发了基于DEM(Digital Elevation Model)的暴雨推求设计洪水的软件。该软件利用不同历时的点暴雨均值和变差系数等值线图生成DEM数据源,点选可自动获取工程所在位置的所有参数。采用推导的数值解法对产流过程和汇流过程进行程序开发,实现了陕西省无资料地区中小流域设计洪水计算的可视化高效计算和快捷规范的输出,显著提高了计算精度和工作效率。该软件算法和开发方法可推广应用于全国其他省市中小流域无资料地区设计洪水的计算。

城市蓄滞洪区生态水景公园概念规划及景观节点详细设计:以宋庄蓄洪生态水景公园为例

宋庄蓄滞洪区是北京城市副中心防洪格局通州堰中的重要组成部分,其防洪功能至关重要。为了使蓄滞洪区既满足汛期防洪调蓄的作用,降低洪水对周边地区的影响,保障市民的生命财产安全,又满足市民非汛期生态休闲目的,以宋庄蓄洪生态水景公园为例,结合现状条件和洪水的启示,打破原有水绿界限,提出全新的设计理念,重视前期规划设计,通过融合多种功能、塑造立体空间、打造技术亮点等方法与水系串联、土方平衡、湿地净化、绿化种植等措施相结合,构建绿色、生态、健康的开放式生态水景公园——宋庄沁园,实现宋庄蓄洪区的综合利用。以生态水景的形态与东郊森林公园、温榆河河堤自然串联为一个整体,保障副中心的防洪安全,提高蓄洪调度能力,有效降低洪水风险,提升周边生态环境,满足市民观景、休闲、健身等活动需求,充分展示水生态、水文化、水技术等科普知识,成为副中心“通州堰”生态水景观体系的点睛之笔。

面向新时期新需求的三峡水库运行方案研究

本文回顾三峡水库设计洪水、特征水位、运行方案变化调整过程,综述三峡水库运行调度关键技术研究进展和分析来水来沙变化情况。分别采用最可能洪水地区组成法和非一致性洪水频率分析两种途径,推求考虑上游水库群调蓄影响的三峡水库运行期设计洪水及特征水位。结果表明:近10年三峡入库泥沙量比初设成果减少了84.4%,宜昌站水文情势IHA-RVA综合指标为74%、发生了重度改变,三峡水库运行期1000年一遇7~15 d洪量减少了约81.5亿~142.8亿m^(3),初设确定汛限水位的主要制约因素(防洪、泥沙)发生了很大的变化。原单站设计洪水及确定的三峡水库175-155-145 m运行方案,已无法满足新时期水资源高效利用和生态环境保护的新需求。建议把三峡水库运行方案调整为175-160-155 m,主汛期水位在155~160 m区间动态控制运行,长江中下游梅雨结束后应考虑提前蓄水,8月底蓄至163 m左右,9月底蓄至165 m,10月底蓄满。该方案在保证大坝和下游防洪安全的前提下,汛期减少弃水并增加枯水期补水量,预计可增发10%左右的发电量;抬高运行水位也有利于库区航运和减少消落带;9月份尽量不蓄水或少蓄水,可减少蓄水期对下游河道及两湖生态环境的不利影响,具有巨大的经济、社会和生态环境等综合利用效益。当预测预报长江流域可能发生流域性大洪水时,尽快将库水位消落至汛限水位145 m,确保大坝和下游防洪安全。

万泉河流域设计洪水分析

编制河流治理开发方案,需要合理可靠的设计洪水成果。以万泉河设计洪水计算为例,分析了历史洪水重现期,进行了水文站洪水系列一致性处理,建立了干流水文站之间的洪峰、洪量相关关系,插补延长了洪水系列,确定了水文站设计洪水成果。根据流域具有调蓄作用水库的兴建时间,计算不同分区的区间设计洪水。分析流域洪水遭遇情况,采用典型年法和同频率法分析设计洪水地区组成,采用分区时段洪量控制选取相对不利的典型年实测洪水过程为典型,推求防洪控制断面设计洪水过程线。

梯级水库下游最不利洪水地区组成法

梯级水库运行调度显著改变了下游洪水的时程分配,而现有洪水地区组成法没有考虑对工程设计和防洪调度最不利或最恶劣的情景。本文基于灾害风险理论,根据未控区间洪量及地区组成概率,提出一种最不利洪水地区组成法。雅砻江梯级水库实例分析表明:最不利地区组成法分配给下游未控区间流域的洪量总是大于同频率组成法和最可能组成法;最不利组成法推求的雅砻江出口断面1 000年一遇设计洪峰、3 d和7 d洪量分别为16 700 m^(3)/s、41.6亿和85.1亿m^(3),均大于其他洪水地区组成法估计值。理论推导和统计试验表明最不利地区组成法可合理分配洪量并兼顾下游防洪风险,具有深入研究和应用的价值。