Topographic seismic effects and avalanche hazard:A case study of Mount Siella(L’Aquila,Central Italy)

In mountainous areas,snow avalanches could be triggered by the shaking produced by earthquakes.The forces induced by the earthquake can cause an irregular increase of shear strength load down the slope,for the presence of complex surface and buried morphologies.Topographic irregularities generate maximum effects of waves amplification linked to wavelengths comparable to the horizontal dimension of the topographic feature.For this reason,the selected time-histories represent an appropriate input for the two-dimensional numerical response analyses when a dynamic phenomenon produce the resonant motion of a whole mountain.This represents an important earthquake-induced hazard in snow-covered mountain areas with high probability of seismic events.Some valleys are located in regions with scare ground motion data and investments on infrastructures are not always accompanied by adequate protection against earthquake-induced avalanches.The paper points out a simple deterministic approach for selecting a set of real accelerograms applied to a real case of Siella Mountain(Central Italy)where a large avalanche destroying a tourist facility of Rigopiano resort on 18 January 2017.The selected time histories were used as input for the two-dimensional numerical model of the subsoil to evaluate the topographic seismic amplification in ridge and compare it with the results of other authors.These methods suggest that morphology-related inertial effects should be considered as an overload action on snow layers when controlling multi-hazard studies and spatial planning.

Deterministic and fuzzy-based methods to evaluate community resilience

Community resilience is becoming a growing concern for authorities and decision makers.This paper introduces two indicator-based methods to evaluate the resilience of communities based on the PEOPLES framework.PEOPLES is a multi-layered framework that defines community resilience using seven dimensions.Each of the dimensions is described through a set of resilience indicators collected from literature and they are linked to a measure allowing the analytical computation of the indicator’s performance.The first method proposed in this paper requires data on previous disasters as an input and returns as output a performance function for each indicator and a performance function for the whole community.The second method exploits a knowledge-based fuzzy modeling for its implementation.This method allows a quantitative evaluation of the PEOPLES indicators using descriptive knowledge rather than deterministic data including the uncertainty involved in the analysis.The output of the fuzzy-based method is a resilience index for each indicator as well as a resilience index for the community.The paper also introduces an open source online tool in which the first method is implemented.A case study illustrating the application of the first method and the usage of the tool is also provided in the paper.

Forward-Kinematics-Based Approaches for Pose Accuracy of Docking Mechanism with Joint Clearance

Joint clearance,as an important stochastic factor,can significantly deteriorate positioning and repeatability accuracies and lower assembly quality of a 6-DOF docking mechanism.Considering pose accuracy with traditional error model that possesses inherent imprecision,both probabilistic and deterministic approaches based on forward kinematics are presented to analyze comprehensive pose error(CPE)in simulation.Results indicate an identical trend emerges for each CPE with both approaches,and both CPEs perform opposite variations as the moving platform upgrades.The findings provide theoretical reference for refinement of assembly quality evaluation of this mechanism.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of District Mansehra,Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa,Pakistan

The site of Mansehra is located seismically in an active regime, known as the Crystalline Nappe Zone and Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis in NW Himalayas, Pakistan. Seismic Hazard Assessment （SHA） for the site has been carried out by considering the earthquake source zones, selection of appropriate attenuation equations, near fault effects and maximum potential magnitude estimation. The Mansehra Thrust, Oghi Fault, Banna Thrust, Balakot Shear Zone, Main Boundary Thrust, Panjal Thrust, Jhelum Fault and Muzaffarabad Fault and, further to the south, the Sanghargali, Nathiagali, and Thandiani Thrusts are the most critical tectonic features within the 50 km radius of Mansehra. Using the available instrumental seismological data from 1904 to 2007, SHA has been carried out. Other reactivated critical tectonic features in the area have been investigated. Among them the Balakot-Bagh fault, with the fault length of 120 km from Balakot to Poonch, has been considered as the most critical tectonic feature on the basis of geological/structural/seismological data. The potential earthquake of maximum magnitude 7.8 has been assigned to the Balakot-Bagh fault using four regression relations. The peak ground acceleration value of 0.25 g （10% probability of exceedance for 50 years） and 0.5 g has been calculated with the help of the attenuation equation using probabilistic and deterministic approaches.

Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan

Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respectively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.

A Note on Transition Kernels for the Most UnfavourableMixed Strategies of the Market

We consider a deterministic model of market evolution with trading constraints andapply a game-theoretic approach to the superhedging problem.We obtain sufficientconditions for the game equilibrium and prove under these conditions the existenceof a Borel-measurable transition kernel describing dependence on price prehistory ofthe most unfavourable mixed strategy of the market.