Development and Future of South China Sea Issue

Since 2010,the South China Sea issue has gone through complicated developments.The yearslong relative stability of the South China Sea has been broken by the advancement of US AsiaPacific rebalance strategy.Due to the

Research progress and challenges of natural gas hydrate resource evaluation in the South China Sea

As an efficient clean energy,natural gas hydrate(NGH)has become a hot topic in recent researches.Since1990 s,China has made great achievements and progress in NGH exploration in the South China Sea(SCS),including determination of the favorable distribution areas and favorable strata thickness,identification of the dual source for accumulation,evaluation of the prospective gas contents,verification of the widespread existence,and confirmation of the technical recoverability of NGH resources.However,there are three major challenges in the NGH studies.First,all the 24 national key and major projects in the SCS focused on trial production engineering and geological engineering in the past 20 years,while 8 of the 10 international NGH research projects focused on resource potential.Second,resource evaluation methods are outdated and some parameter selection are subjective.Third,the existing resource evaluation results are low-level with a great uncertainty,and cannot be used to guide NGH exploration and production or strategic research.To improve the evaluation of NGH resources in the SCS,future researches should focus on four aspects:(1)improve the research on the criterion of the objective existence of NGH and the method of prediction and evaluation;(2)apply new theories and methods from the global NGH research;(3)boost the research on the difference and correlation of the conditions of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in different basins;(4)innovate the theory and method of NGH resource potential evaluation.

Research on Integrated Planning Method of Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration and Development

Under the requirement of high-quality development, the research method of integrated model planning for offshore oil and gas exploration and development suitable for the western South China Sea is put forward. Based on the new round of resource evaluation and exploration and development research in the western South China Sea, the in-depth research on underground oil and gas resources, surface development facilities, external factors and economic indexes are carried out to clarify the industrial layout of oil and gas development. The potential and prospect of oil and gas exploration and development were implemented, and the main external factors and corresponding measures affecting the planning were clarified in this paper. The economic evaluation model suitable for the region is established based on the analysis of internal rate of return, comprehensive barrel oil cost, critical price, financial net present value and other important indicators, and a set of planning and research methods suitable for the integration of exploration and development in the western South China Sea is finally formed. This method has been applied to the replacement reserve study of Weizhou X and Weizhou Y oil fields. It is found that the planned reserves and production are consistent with the actual ones, and good practical results have been achieved.

A comparison analysis between developed and undeveloped depressions over the South China Sea

-- In this paper, by using two sets of composite data of developed and undeveloped depressions over the South China Sea, we analyze and compare the dynamic structures, the heating fields and the vorticity budget residuals of two different types of depressions. Our conclusions are as follows:The two types of depressions are similar in thermodynamical and dynamical structures. The main differ ences are : in the high layer of developed depression there is a divergence field, with a center near the zero line of vertical wind shear, and over undeveloped depression, the divergence field is weaker and the vertical wind at its center is greater than 5 m s-1. The thermodynamical field of the former is asymmetrical and that of the latter is quasi - symmetrical. As far as the dynamics structure is concerned, the convergence in the lower layer and the difference of divergence between the upper and lower layers of developed depression is three tmies larger than that of undeveloped depression. The upward motion and heating field at the center of developed depression is also stronger than that of undeveloped one.The vorticity budget of the two types of depressions is mainly determined by the divergence term, the vorticity advection term and the vertical transport term. The residual term is also important.The principal contribution comes from the divergence term . This is more significant for developed depression than for undeveloped depression.

South China Sea-A Conflict-Prone Place?

A military escalation between China and the United States in the South China Sea(SCS)is staged which resembles the Cold War crisis in Europe in the 1950’s and 1960’s.The PRC has reclaimed and fortified its holdings in the SCS since 2013;in 2017,the US has declared an“Indo-Pacific Strategy”to contain China.Due to differences of interest of the relevant countries,it will be difficult to create an effective united front against China in the near future.It remains to be seen whether armed conflict between China and the US be avoided.

Has the Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Improved Since the Late 1970s?

Based on the evaluation of state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models （CGCMs） from the ENSEMBLES （Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts） and DEME- TER （Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction） projects, it is found that the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） has improved since the late 1970s. These CGCMs show better skills in prediction of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation within the SCSSM domain during 1979-2005 than that during 1960-1978. Possible reasons for this improvement are investigated. First, the relationship between the SSTs over the tropical Pacific, North Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and SCSSM has intensified since the late 1970s. Meanwhile, the SCSSM-related SSTs, with their larger amplitude of interannual variability, have been better predicted. Moreover, the larger amplitude of the interannual variability of the SCSSM and improved initializations for CGCMs after the late 1970s contribute to the better prediction of the SCSSM. In addition, considering that the CGCMs have certain limitations in SCSSM rainfall prediction, we applied the year-to-year increment approach to these CGCMs from the DEMETER and ENSEMBLES projects to improve the prediction of SCSSM rainfall before and after the late 1970s.

COMPARISON OF THE STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF DEVELOPED VERSUS UNDEVELOPED MID-LEVEL VORTEXES

Using the NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis data,several obvious differences of the structural characteristics of developed versus undeveloped mid-level vortexes are studied.First,the central vorticity of the developed mid-level vortex increases towards higher levels while the undeveloped one decreases.The low-level convergence structure maintains well in the developed mid-level vortex whereas the undeveloped one does badly.Second,on the one hand,according to the symmetric analysis,the horizontal wind field and wind vertical section of the developed mid-level vortex are well symmetric while those of the undeveloped one are less symmetric.Meanwhile,weak wind vertical shear help the developed mid-level vortex to establish a warm core in upper-and mid-levels of the troposphere.On the other hand,according to the balance analysis,better balance between wind and pressure is shown in the mid-and lower-levels of the troposphere of the developed mid-level vortex than in those of the undeveloped vortex.Third,positive anomaly of potential vorticity is enhanced and developed in the vertical direction of the developed vortex.However,the undeveloped vortex weakens with a weak positive anomaly.

中美博弈:近昔和当今及对中国战略的意涵

过去15年里,中美关系的首要特征是博弈而非协调。两国博弈先在战略阵线开启,继而在战略、经贸、高技术和意识形态四条主要阵线展开。就中美博弈总体而言,美国处于“防守型”战略态势,美国认为它长时期拥有的重大优势地位一个又一个地丧失或被侵蚀,首要动能在中国一边。中共十八大以来,中国逐渐成为一个急剧腾升的强国。大为增强的国力,使中国更加坚定了自信和抱负。中国内外发力,争取在世界政治经济和全球治理的某些问题领域参与引领甚或单独引领,实现在亚洲大陆以及发展中世界的经济和外交优势,大致取得在西太平洋的对美战略和军事优势,进一步地,对第一至第二岛链之间的战略空间的控扼能力愈益被视为必要。回顾奥巴马、特朗普和拜登三届美国政府的对华态势和政策,对未来中美关系应做好准备应对可能的疾风暴雨。

“中国海洋强国建设的重要成就与启示”笔谈

自党的十八大报告完整提出中国海洋强国战略以来,通过顶层设计、理论阐释、内涵拓展、布局实践,中国海洋强国建设成就斐然,为构建海洋命运共同体作出了重大贡献。但中国的海洋强国战略实施依然面临多种问题和挑战,需要不断增强主体自觉、理论自洽和文化自信,也需要在海权的发展进程中,结合实际,把握机遇,确保海洋强国战略目标如期实现,还需要消除南海问题对推进海洋强国建设的不利影响,合理处理影响南海问题的内外因素,确保中国海洋强国建设的顺利推进,为我国强国建设作出“海洋贡献”。

南海渔业资源可持续发展的中国方案建构

有效治理南海渔业资源问题,应以现实需求为导向探寻南海渔业资源可持续发展的总基调,这是建构中国特色治理方案的根本前提。同时,要不失时机地从立法、执法、司法角度深刻反思现有治理措施的缺陷,紧追全球海洋治理大势,借鉴地中海渔业合作治理经验,形成符合南海海洋治理需求的体系化方案。该方案需具有吸引力、感召力与引导力且全面展示中国在南海问题上的基本立场。中国可通过加强科学管理与法规建设、注重生态修复与增殖养护、推动国际合作与区域治理等可行途径实现南海渔业资源的可持续发展。

中国油气建设和油气消费与缺口的实证分析——兼论南海油气跨期开发资金需求的预测

世界百年之未有大变局之下,夯实我国能源开发基础,保障能源安全至关重要。我国南海蕴藏着丰富的石油天然气资源,南海油气跨期开发有利于增加油气供给,保障能源安全。本文着眼油气建设,运用面板数据模型,实证分析了省域层面油气建设和油气消费及经济增长的相关关系;运用协整分析,揭示了全国层面油气建设和油气缺口既存在互补关系,又存在替代关系,指出替代关系威胁我国能源安全。基于南海油气跨期开发目标模型,构建了缺口—投资模型,预测了为实现南海油气跨期开发目标的国有经济石油和天然气开采业年度固定资产投资规模,进而探讨实现这一目标的财政金融支持机制,包括制定南海油气建设转移支付专项资金制度、创建针对南海资源勘探、开发的公司债和基金等。

中国南海海洋牧场的波浪能资源评估

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)近10年的ERA5再分析海浪场数据,为中国南海周边4个省(自治区)的国家级海洋牧场选取最适合开发波浪能资源的电站位置,重点研究各站点的波浪能开发潜力以及与波浪能装置布放方向有关的指标。研究表明:广东省惠州小星山以及福建省莆田市南日岛两个国家级海洋牧场所选站点的波浪能开发潜力最高,获得高经济收益的潜力也最强;此外,后者所选站点的波浪能传播方向最集中,最有利于装置吸收波浪能资源。

南海黄鳍金枪鱼性腺发育形态观察和组织学研究

为了解南海黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)性腺发育规律和繁殖特征,2021年5月—2022年5月,用延绳钓在南海(17.41°N,110.61°E)采集黄鳍金枪鱼41尾,体质量0.6~35.0 kg,采用解剖和常规组织学方法,研究南海黄鳍金枪鱼的性腺发育周期和各发育时期性腺中生殖细胞的形态特征。结果表明,黄鳍金枪鱼卵母细胞发育共分6个时相,卵巢发育分为6个时期:卵原细胞增殖期、初级卵母细胞生长期、皮质液泡形成期、卵黄颗粒积累期、排卵期、退化期。黄鳍金枪鱼为分批非同步产卵类型;精巢为典型的小叶型,发育过程分为6个时期:精原细胞分化期、精原细胞增殖期、早期成熟期、中期成熟期、排精期、退化期。本文阐明了黄鳍金枪鱼性腺在不同发育时期的形态、组织结构特征及发育规律,以丰富黄鳍金枪鱼繁殖生物学基础资料,并为其人工繁育提供科学依据。

从敌人到战略伙伴:越美关系发展的原因与限度

2023年9月,越南与美国领导人在河内宣布建立全面战略伙伴关系,越美关系进入历史最好时期。为何越南与美国能从曾经的生死敌手演变为如今的战略伙伴?在越美关系的演变历程中,两国关系的发展受到多重因素的综合影响。首先,越美两国对解决越战遗留问题的积极态度有助于消解双方对彼此负面的历史记忆,为两国关系改善提供了前提条件。其次,大国关系变化也催化了越美关系发展。冷战后期越南跟随苏联主动改善与美国关系,实现了关系正常化并开展初步合作。自2009年起,随着美国发起对华竞争并拉拢越南,越美关系进入战略合作阶段。最后,越南对美国的发展需求、安全需求与美国对越南的经济战略需求和安全战略需求相交织,共同推动了越美合作水平的不断提升。然而,越美战略合作进一步发展仍存在制约因素,包括两国意识形态分歧、美国可靠性不足及越南避免“选边站队”的政策倾向。对此,中国在大国竞争的变局下应未雨绸缪,通过理性审慎的对越政策,管控分歧、推进合作,妥善处理好中越关系。

21世纪以来澳大利亚的南海政策和南太地区战略:威胁感知、利益排序与角色定位

南海和南太地区是澳大利亚区域构想的重要部分,在美国对华战略竞争的背景下成为中美澳三国利益交汇的关键区域。21世纪以来,澳大利亚在南海和南太地区的政策转向具有时间与程度上的差异,现有研究缺乏对其地区安全策略的比较分析和对决策者认知机制的探索。澳大利亚地区战略遵循内外互动的认知逻辑:在外部威胁感知强烈时选择“对华竞争者”角色,在联盟风险感知显著时更可能对华合作;当环境不确定性高、双重威胁感知平衡时,决策者倾向于在优先利益范围内积极配合盟友,而在非优先事项中扮演“国际良好公民”。随着南海问题成为大国争议焦点,澳大利亚将该区域纳入“印太战略弧”,其南海政策从谨慎旁观走向高调介入和明确制衡。南太地区被澳大利亚视为传统“势力范围”,中美战略视域的扩展推动澳大利亚战略由地区主义战略转向借力大国,在美国着力阻遏中国影响力时进一步转向“联美制华”。

精英合法化视角下南海声索国的政策探究——以菲、越、马、文为例

南海问题是中国与南海声索国间最复杂的问题之一,南海声索国的南海政策存在着明显的差异与不一致性,而不同的南海政策也影响着声索国与中国双边关系的稳定发展。研究结果发现,权力不对称和不确定性等结构性因素促使以小国为主的南海声索国寻求以对冲作为主要的应对政策,而声索国国内不同合法化路径的选择驱动或限制着对冲的强度,绩效合法化、价值观合法化、程序合法化与特殊性合法化是声索国的主要选择路径,最终形成了菲律宾以程序合法化为主的强对冲政策,越南以价值观合法化为主的中等对冲,马来西亚与文莱以绩效合法化和特殊性合法化为主的弱对冲。此外,南海声索国在南海问题上并不是单一的政策模式,而是一系列具体策略的组合,如直接对抗、拉拢其他大国与选择性发声等,通过不同的策略组合,南海声索国在南海问题上形成了不同的政策应对,以促进政治利益或经济利益的最终实现。

中美战略竞争与东盟内部凝聚力

在地区权力加速转移的背景下,东南亚成为中美两国战略博弈的重要地缘方向。东盟的内部凝聚力是指东盟各国能否就某一议题达成政策共识,并形成东盟层面一致决策的组织向心力。文章认为,中美之间日趋激烈的竞争态势将严重削弱东盟的内部凝聚力,中美竞争烈度的不断攀升可能导致东盟内部在部分议题上难以达成一致意见。中美竞争作用于东盟共识的过程包含以下三个递进的层次:首先,中美竞争烈度的上升及两国对东盟不断加注的行为使东盟面临“选边站”的压力,东盟国家被迫在中美之间作出选择。其次,由于国家实力、联盟关系、领土冲突及历史记忆对东盟国家领导人的不同作用,东盟内部在“选边站”的立场上出现严重分歧。最后,以“东盟方式”为核心的东盟决策机制无法有效弥合东盟内部的分歧,东盟在中美博弈的重要议题上陷入决策困境。东盟国家在应对南海争端、“印太战略”上的政策分歧表明,中美逐渐凸显不兼容性的竞争正在激起东盟国家内部的立场差异。未来以地区制度为中心的大国竞争可能对东盟的区域影响力造成一定影响。

从南海到“印太”:美日菲三边合作机制化及威慑效用

在美国联合盟友不断推进“印太战略”和“一体化威慑”以服务其大国战略竞争议程的过程中,一系列“三边”或“四边”安全合作机制的发展及其构成的“小多边主义”军事威慑影响力日增。作为新的战略前沿,美国联合日菲两国,共同推进三边合作机制化,试图相对稳定和长久地威慑中国并“塑造中国的周边环境”。具体而言,随着美日菲三边合作走向机制化,其不再局限于在南海深化对中国的“强加成本威慑”和“灰色地带威慑”,而是逐步强化以中国台湾岛为中心的“第一岛链”并意图通过联合澳大利亚组成“美日菲澳”四方机制等部署与其他“岛链”相链接,提升对华“拒止性威慑”和“韧性威慑”。同时,通过军事安全与经济安全的复合架构,在更广泛的印太地区加强威慑力量、使用力量的决心和威慑信息的“网络化”传递。在此过程中,其威慑效用呈现出从南海向印太地区的扩散趋势。然而,其在威慑力量、使用力量的决心和威慑信息的传递等三个方面也将受到一系列因素的制约。即便如此,此种旨在严密封锁中国“向海图强”的基于威慑的战略协调,值得中国高度警惕。

中欧班列南通道发展定位及策略研究

近年来,亚欧政治经济格局加速衍变,亚欧间供应链物流链随之不断重塑,中欧班列南通道凭借自身地理位置的优势,引起多方关注,运量快速增加,发展迅速,为推动中欧班列通道多元化发展奠定扎实基础。阐述中欧班列南通道建设发展情况,分析南通道发展面临主要问题,在对比分析中欧班列主要通道优劣势的基础上研究南通道分工及发展定位,提出着力提升运输效率、降低综合物流成本、推动境外物流节点建设、提高海关通关效率、建立沿线铁路合作机制等发展策略,为中欧班列南通道高质量发展提供借鉴。