The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13%to 30%of the time since 1963.This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets,but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum,...The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13%to 30%of the time since 1963.This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets,but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum,which posits that the stock market is micro efficient,but macro inefficient.I develop a new model to measure potential inefficiency at macro level.Inefficiency in price(P)is driven by earnings(EPS)and/or valuation(P/E).At the peak of the TMT-bubble in 1999/2000,both factors were in play,while only earnings assumptions were inefficient before the Great Financial Crisis in 2008/09.The model developed show expected results in terms of relative efficiency for Developed vs.Emerging Markets and for Dow Jones vs.Nasdaq.Parts of academia seems to accept a different definition of market efficiency at micro level compared to macro level.At macro level,a standard“price vs.fair value”definition seems to be generally accepted,while at micro level,a relative“price vs.price”definition seems to be broadly used.The latter way of thinking has historically contributed to price bubbles.Numerous examples of stock prices that deviate significantly from their fair value in days,weeks and months and doubtful methods for measuring efficiency at micro level cast doubt about the micro efficiency claim part of Samuelson’s Dictum.展开更多
《探源》一文并未探到"Poetry is what gets lost in translation"这句"引语"的源头,本文质疑这句"名言"之由来并考证其出处,证明此"引语"不见于弗罗斯特生前公开发表以及后人搜集编纂出版的...《探源》一文并未探到"Poetry is what gets lost in translation"这句"引语"的源头,本文质疑这句"名言"之由来并考证其出处,证明此"引语"不见于弗罗斯特生前公开发表以及后人搜集编纂出版的任何诗体和散文体作品,呈现弗罗斯特关于"译诗会有所失"之论述的原文原貌并结合其所在语境分析这段原文,商榷"诗乃翻译中失去的东西"这句汉语译文,呼吁翻译理论工作者用更加严肃认真的科学态度对待学术引征。展开更多
文摘The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13%to 30%of the time since 1963.This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets,but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum,which posits that the stock market is micro efficient,but macro inefficient.I develop a new model to measure potential inefficiency at macro level.Inefficiency in price(P)is driven by earnings(EPS)and/or valuation(P/E).At the peak of the TMT-bubble in 1999/2000,both factors were in play,while only earnings assumptions were inefficient before the Great Financial Crisis in 2008/09.The model developed show expected results in terms of relative efficiency for Developed vs.Emerging Markets and for Dow Jones vs.Nasdaq.Parts of academia seems to accept a different definition of market efficiency at micro level compared to macro level.At macro level,a standard“price vs.fair value”definition seems to be generally accepted,while at micro level,a relative“price vs.price”definition seems to be broadly used.The latter way of thinking has historically contributed to price bubbles.Numerous examples of stock prices that deviate significantly from their fair value in days,weeks and months and doubtful methods for measuring efficiency at micro level cast doubt about the micro efficiency claim part of Samuelson’s Dictum.
文摘《探源》一文并未探到"Poetry is what gets lost in translation"这句"引语"的源头,本文质疑这句"名言"之由来并考证其出处,证明此"引语"不见于弗罗斯特生前公开发表以及后人搜集编纂出版的任何诗体和散文体作品,呈现弗罗斯特关于"译诗会有所失"之论述的原文原貌并结合其所在语境分析这段原文,商榷"诗乃翻译中失去的东西"这句汉语译文,呼吁翻译理论工作者用更加严肃认真的科学态度对待学术引征。
