A PRINCIPAL MODE OF CIRCULATION COVARIATION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERES AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH ENSO DURING BOREAL WINTER

By employing the singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis, we have investigated in the present paper the covariations between circulation changes in the Northern(NH) and Southern Hemispheres(SH) and their associations with ENSO by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the reconstructed monthly NOAA SST, and CMAP precipitation along with NOAA Climate Prediction Center(CPC) ENSO indices. A bi-hemispheric covariation mode(hereafter BHCM) is explored, which is well represented by the first mode of the SVD analysis of sea surface pressure anomaly(SLPA-SVD1). This SVD mode can explain 57.36% of the total covariance of SLPA. BHCM varies in time with a long-term trend and periodicities of 3—5 years. The long term trend revealed by SVD1 shows that the SLP increases in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific but decreases in the western Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, which facilitates easterlies in the lower troposphere to be intensified and El Ni觡o events to occur with lower frequency. The spatial pattern of the BHCM looks roughly symmetric about the equator in the tropics, whereas it is characterized by zonal disturbances in the mid-latitude of NH and is highly associated with AAO in the mid-latitude of SH. On inter-annual time scales, the BHCM is highly correlated with ENSO. The atmosphere in both the NH and SH responds to sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial region, while the contemporaneous circulation changes in the NH and SH in turn affect the occurrence of El Ni觡o/La Ni觡a. In boreal winter, significant temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the BHCM are found worldwide. Specifically, in the positive phase of the BHCM,temperature and precipitation are anomalously low in eastern China and some other regions of East Asia. These results are helpful for us to better understand interactions between circulations in the NH and SH and the dynamical mechanisms behind these interactions.

Influence of climatic warming in the Southern and Northern Hemi-sphere on the tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean

Based on analyzing the surface air temperature series in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere and the tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific Ocean, the relationships between climatic warming and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone are investigated. The results showed that with the climatic warming in both hemispheres, the frequency of the tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean reduces and its intensity weakens simultaneously. A possible explanation might be that the cold air invasion from the Southern Hemisphere weakens due to global warming.

Precipitation differences cause contrast patterns of glacier-melt water supplied discharge of two glacier basins between northern and southern Third Pole

In the Third Pole (TP) region, there are about 100,000 km2of glaciers [1], distributed mainly in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings. Glacier melt-water from these glaciers not only feeds rivers, such as the Indus, Brahmaputra, Ganges, Yellow and Yangtze, which finally reach the seas, but also feeds the rivers, such as the Tarim River, Heihe River and a lot of other rivers, which finally reach the arid areas or deserts. The Asian Water Tower [2]is, therefore, proposed to characterize the significance of the glaciers and glacier melt water at all the river heads in the TP, which is important water resource both for regulating seasonal water demands in the arid areas or deserts and for sea level rising. In addition, they also change the water cycle at a large scale [3].

An Inter-hemispheric Teleconnection and a Possible Mechanism for Its Formation

Through observational analyses, an inter-hemispheric teleconnection is identified between the subtropical region of the South China Sea to the western Pacific near the Philippines （WP） and the region to the east of Australia （AE）. The teleconnection is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in key sea areas （including the Indian Ocean, the South China Sea, and the area to the east of Australia）. Based on the IAP T42L9 model, numerical experiments axe performed to explore a possible mechanism for the formation of the teleconnection. The results show that the positive SST anomalies in the key sea areas may jointly contribute to the occurrence and maintenance of the positive geopotential height anomalies over both the WP and AE and be a critical factor in the teleconnection formation. The large-scale SST anomaly in the Indian Ocean, involving the tropics concurrent atmospheric responses over both the WP and the east of Australia seems to reinforce and maintain the and subtropics of both hemispheres, may lead to AE, while the effect of the local SST anomaly to positive height anomaly over the AE.

ENSO-Independent Contemporaneous Variations of Anomalous Circulations in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres:The Polar-Tropical Seesaw Mode

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the ENSO indices from the Climate Prediction Center over the period 1978-2014,we have investigated the contemporaneous circulation variations in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres by performing the singular value decomposition analysis of sea level pressure anomalies（SLPA） after the ENSO signal is regressed out.It is found that there exists a polar-tropical seesaw mode（PTSM） that characterizes with the out of phase fluctuations of SLPA between the polar and tropical regions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in boreal winter.This PTSM explains 47.74%of the total covariance of SLPA and is almost independent of ENSO.It demonstrates a long-term trend and oscillation cycles of 2-3 and 4-6 yr.The long-term trend in PTSM indicates that the sea level pressure gradually decreases in the tropics and increases in the polar region with time.This PTSM looks roughly symmetric about the equator besides the seesaw pattern of SLPA between the tropics and polar region in each hemisphere.The disturbances in the geopotential height field in association with the PTSM shows baroclinic features in the tropics whereas equivalent barotropic features in the mid and high latitudes in the troposphere.The anomalous thermal forcing in the tropical region is possibly one of the factors facilitating the formation of this PTSM.Significant global precipitation and temperature anomalies related to the PTSM are observed.In the positive PTSM phase,precipitation and temperature are higher than normal in southern Europe and the Mediterranean and surrounding areas,but lower than normal in northern Europe and Siberia.Precipitation is higher than normal while temperature is lower than normal in Northeast Asia.Significant temperature and precipitation anomalies possibly occur in the regions of western China,northern India,parts of North America,parts of subtropical Africa,Maritime Continent,and Antarctic.These results are helpful for better understanding of the circulation variations and the mechanisms behind the interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and the related winter climate anomalies over globe.

Simulation of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Annular Modes by CAMS-CSM

As leading modes of the planetary-scale atmospheric circulation in the extratropics, the Northern Hemisphere(NH)annular mode(NAM) and Southern Hemisphere(SH) annular mode(SAM) are important components of global circulation, and their variabilities substantially impact the climate in mid-high latitudes. A 35-yr(1979-2013) simulation by the climate system model developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM) was carried out based on observed sea surface temperature and sea ice data. The ability of CAMS-CSM in simulating horizontal and vertical structures of the NAM and SAM, relation of the NAM to the East Asian climate, and temporal variability of the SAM is examined and validated against the observational data. The results show that CAMS-CSM captures the zonally symmetric and out-of-phase variations of sea level pressure anomaly between the midlatitudes and polar zones in the extratropics of the NH and SH. The model has also captured the equivalent barotropic structure in tropospheric geopotential height and the meridional shifts of the NH and SH jet systems associated with the NAM and SAM anomalies. Furthermore, the model is able to reflect the variability of northern and southern Ferrel cells corresponding to the NAM and SAM anomalies. The model reproduces the observed relationship of the boreal winter NAM with the East Asian trough and air temperature over East Asia. It also captures the upward trend of the austral summer SAM index during recent decades. However, compared with the observation, the model shows biases in both the intensity and center locations of the NAM's and SAM's horizontal and vertical structures. Specifically, it overestimates their intensities.

南稻北麦与公司违规——基于水稻理论的实证研究

利用2003—2018年中国上市公司违规行为的数据,研究了水稻种植与公司违规之间的联系及其内在机制。研究表明,随着CEO籍贯地种植水稻的比例提高,公司违规的概率也相应增大,稻作经济所带来的低社会信任度和风险偏好文化是其传导机制。儒家文化影响力与稻作文化在影响公司违规方面存在一定的替代关系,CEO学历的提高能在一定程度上抑制稻作文化对公司违规的正向影响。基于舞弊三角理论,检验了在不同压力与机会要素下,水稻种植的异质性影响,发现CEO籍贯地水稻种植比例在经营压力小、违规机会大的公司能够对公司违规起到更大影响。

晚更新世冰期旋回成因的南大洋机制及其对北极冰盖形成的启示

目前,学术界普遍认为南大洋对调节晚更新世冰期/间冰期大气二氧化碳分压(pCO_(2))变化发挥了重要作用。在晚更新世,冰期大气pCO_(2)比间冰期大气pCO_(2)下降约90×10^(−6)。而在约2.7 Ma,随着北极冰盖快速扩张(intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation,iNHG),冰期旋回振幅增大,大气pCO_(2)也骤降。探究晚更新世冰期及iNHG时期大气pCO_(2)下降的原因,对构建完整的冰期旋回理论意义重大。本文综合晚更新世冰期南大洋北部的亚南极区(Subantarctic Antarctic Zone,SAZ)和南部的南极区(Antarctic Zone,AZ)的洋流、海冰、生产力等记录,分析了两个区域在晚更新世冰期可能的储碳机制,并结合iNHG时期各项地质记录,讨论南大洋洋流、碳储库在iNHG期间所发生的变化。结果认为,SAZ和AZ使冰期大气pCO_(2)下降的机制不完全相同,铁肥输入增强导致SAZ生物泵效率增强,增加了海洋固碳,而在AZ,深水通风减弱、海冰扩张、深海分层增强是加强深海碳封存的关键机制。同时,iNHG时期洋流、碳储库等记录表明,南源水向北大西洋、北太平洋深部显著扩张,南大洋海冰扩张,铁肥输入增强,太平洋碳储库增大,暗示iNHG时期南大洋机制可能是大气pCO_(2)下降的原因,直接造成了晚上新世北极冰盖的最终形成。

北半球春季植被NDVI对温度变化响应的区域差异

利用1982年到2000年的探路者NDVI资料,采用奇异值分解分析方法,研究北半球春季NDVI对温度变化响应的空间差异。前7对模态对总的协方差平方和的解释率高达91％以上,反映出NDVI和气温的相关性非常高。第一对模态解释率达42.6％,显示北个球最显著的NDVI响应中心在西西伯利亚。其次是北美大陆,中心在其中东部。第三对及以后的模态反映的是次一级的空间特征。分析表明这些NDVI-温度的耦合模态受大尺度的大气环流系统的显著影响。9个重要的大气环流指标能解释整个北半球NDVI方差的55.6％,其中对欧洲、北美东南部、北美西北部、亚洲高纬以及东亚地区的影响最突出。因此,研究未来植被生态系统对全球变化响应的区域特征时,必须要考虑到这些环流系统的可能变化及其影响。

南半球环状模气候影响的若干研究进展

南半球环状模是南半球热带外地区环流变率的主导模态。由于南半球环状模在空间上的大尺度特征,全球多个地区的气候均与南半球环状模的变化有关。探讨南半球环状模的气候影响,是近几十年来得到广泛关注并迅速发展的新方向。围绕这个方向,分别回顾了南半球环状模对南半球和北半球气候影响的研究进展,重点阐述了南半球环状模对中国气候影响的相关工作,并从长期变化尺度上,列举了南半球环状模与气候变化方面的研究成果。纵观近几十年的研究发现,针对南半球环状模对南半球的气候影响,目前已有比较系统的认识。总体而言,在年际尺度上,南半球环状模可以通过影响垂直环流和风暴轴的位置,改变表面风速对下垫面的热力和动力驱动作用,进而对南半球的海-气-冰耦合系统产生调控。这种调控多表现出纬向对称性,同时也存在纬向非对称的局地特征。在气候变化的尺度上,南半球环状模是过去半个世纪里南半球气候变化的主要驱动力之一。关于南半球环状模对北半球尤其是中国气候的影响问题,目前也取得了许多有意义的结果。例如,南半球环状模对东亚、西非、北美的夏季风和东亚冬季风均有作用,并且可以调控中国春季华南降水等。海-气耦合过程在南半球环状模对北半球气候的影响中扮演着重要角色,与南半球环状模信号的跨季节存储和由南半球向北半球的传播均有密切关系。但是,与南半球相比,南半球环状模对北半球气候影响的研究,还有许多问题值得深入讨论和研究:一是体现在对南半球环状模信号向北传播机制上的深入认识,二是将南半球环状模的信号作为因子在季节气候预测中的实践。

我国南北方岩溶差异

本文在论述岩溶发育因素的基础上,详细比较了我国南北方岩溶区埋藏类型、岩溶发育形态、含水介质、含水系统、水文地质结构、补径排和水化学特征的差异。

半球月平均位势高度场的若干环流指数及其变化特征

给出了表征半球月平均位势高度场性质的若干环流指数 :气候场强度 Ic、气候异常场平均强度 Ia、气候场不稳定度 Ius。用 NCEP/ NCAR4 0 a再分析月平均位势高度场资料作了计算和分析 ,结果表明 ,这些环流指数存在清晰的时空结构和北、南半球差异 ,它们概括地给出了地球大气位势高度场气候及其异常的基本特点。

涡动在南北半球平流层极涡崩溃过程中作用的比较

比较了南北半球春季平流层极涡的崩溃过程以及涡动在此崩溃过程中的作用。极涡的崩溃时间以平流层极夜急流核区最后一次西风转换为东风的时间来确定。结果表明南北半球平流层极涡的崩溃过程有着共同的特点,涡动和非绝热加热过程都对极涡的崩溃起着重要的作用,在极涡崩溃前平流层行星尺度波动活动明显,极涡崩溃以后,这种波动活动便迅速减弱。其中从对流层上传的行星波决定着极涡的具体崩溃时间。两个半球的差别主要表现在南半球极涡崩溃过程一般始于平流层高层,然后逐渐下传,而北半球这种下传不是很明显。其次,北半球平流层极涡崩溃偏晚年,极涡的减弱有两次过程,第一次为快速变化过程,第二次变化比较缓慢,而南半球平流层极涡崩溃无论早晚年只有一次减弱过程。长期的变化趋势分析表明南北半球平流层极涡的崩溃时间逐渐推迟,特别是20世纪90年代中后期以来,这种推迟更加明显。进一步的研究还发现,伴随着平流层极涡的崩溃过程平流层和对流层存在强烈的动力耦合,南北半球极涡迅速减弱前,各自半球的环状模指数也由负指数增加为正指数,表明低层环流对于平流层极涡的崩溃起到重要的作用;同时极涡不同强度所对应的低层环状模指数也不同,这可能与不同强度平流层极涡对于上传的行星波的反射有关。

月尺度环流对SST强迫的响应特征及机理分析

利用全球中期数值预报谱模式,通过在海表温度气候态上叠加不同扰动的方法,研究了不同季节月尺度大气环流对海表温度变化的响应特征及机理。结果表明,大气响应首先出现海表温度的高值区和海温扰动变化的大值区,其发展和演变还与大气环流的背景场有关,大气响应发展达到稳定的状态是沿南、北半球西风急流附近的纬向波状分布;在不同季节,对不同分布的海表温度变化,大气环流响应的速度不同,但在月尺度内大气响应都能达到最大值;相对于夏季,冬季大气响应最大值达到的高度更高,大气响应对扰动的形态更敏感。

南、北半球环状模月内活动的主要时间尺度

基于"大气环状活动带"的概念,利用逐日再分析资料对南、北半球环状模(简称SAM、NAM)的季节活动特征及月内活动的主要时间尺度(Submonthly timescales)进行了研究,结果表明,NAM具有冬季强、夏季弱的年循环特征,而SAM则表现出明显的准半年循环特征。并且,逐年的功率谱分析进一步显示:NAM的月内活动的主要时间尺度以准1周和准2周为主,且它们具有共生性,准3周为相对次要的周期;而SAM的月内活动周期与NAM相似,准2周和准1周较强,准3周次之。NAM和SAM的月内活动在不同特征时间尺度上的空间特征及其时间演变值得进一步研究。

新疆南北疆人口的区域差异及对策研究

新疆人口在规模、结构及其变动等方面存在明显的区域差异性,解决这些差异对新疆人口的合理布局,推动区域协调发展具有重要意义。利用全国人口普查新疆数据,从人口空间布局、人口结构、人口流动、人口聚集四个方面,剖析了全疆及南北疆地区人口的区域差异。为适应新疆跨越式发展和长治久安的要求,需要统筹解决新疆人口发展问题,包括统筹新疆不同区域的人口数量、人口素质、人口结构、人口分布等,也包括统筹新疆人口发展中的公共服务均等化。

东亚强寒潮——冷涌越过赤道并引发南半球热带气旋和强降水的个例研究

作者对2005年1月初北半球一次强冷空气爆发、越过赤道并影响南半球天气作了较深入的分析。此次冷空气活动引发了东亚的寒潮和大风降温;跨越赤道,在那里形成强烈扰动和强对流天气;并进入南半球,在澳大利亚夏季风槽中激发了强的对流活动,使季风低压发展增强,达到了热带气旋的强度;该热带低压又正好处于南半球中高纬西风槽前,沿槽前西北气流向南深入内陆,在澳大利亚的西澳、北澳和昆士兰等州引发了强降水,进一步确认了我国学者李宪之早在上世纪30年代提出的冬半球强冷空气爆发可以越过赤道并激发夏半球对流活动与热带气旋这一精辟的观点。此外,还揭示出冷空气活动使Hadley环流增强,利于冬季风维持。最后提出了伴有强烈扰动的冬季风环流系统的模型。

与华北干旱相关联的全球尺度气候变化现象

利用ERA-40再分析资料集的风、温度、水汽等再分析资料,分析了华北地区干旱以及北非萨赫勒地区干旱化的气候特征及它们之间的关联,指出在亚非季风区上空存在一个年代际的季风环流异常遥相关波列,正是由于此波列的作用,使得我国华北地区从1965年以后所发生的干旱与北非萨赫勒地区干旱化存在着明显的相关联。并且分析了这两地区的干旱与之相关联的全球气候变化背景,指出由于1965年之后北、南半球气温变化差异的减少导致了亚非季风系统发生了年代际减弱和南撤,从而使得华北和北非萨赫勒地区发生了持续干旱现象。

试论中国经济增长的南北差异

在考察南北方经济发展水平和速度差异的基础上 ,利用统计数据资料 ,对 1980 1999年 2 0年间南北方经济不平衡发展作了系统的分析。通过定量计算得出结论 :经济发展速度南快北慢现象是明显的 ,经济发展水平改革开放前北高南低 ,目前则是南高北低 ,致使中国经济发展出现了新的不平衡。南快北慢的原因是 :地缘优势和超前观念所获得的政策倾斜 ,导致了出口能力和投资 (尤其是外商直接投资 )强度的差别 ;工业结构 (特别是所有制结构和轻重工业结构 )的作用也很明显 ,而国家投资的作用很小 ,且越来越不重要。扭转北慢的对策是加大北方改革开放力度 ,切实搞好国有大中型企业改造 ,大力实施科教兴国战略 ;北方要注意把握机遇 ,构筑新一轮经济增长点 ,尽快实现产业结构的升级和转型。

南北半球台风形成的物理场特征对比分析

以南半球7619热带风暴和北半球8111号台风为例,对台风生成前后台风生成区附近的低空大尺度纬向流场的变化及越赤道气流强度的变化进行分析和计算,并对台风生成区大气层结的温湿场分布、大气低层涡度场的逐日变化和对流层上下层的风垂直切变场逐日变化进行计算。同时进行南北半球台风对比分析,找出了南北半球台风生消时段大尺度环流和台风生成区大气物理场的共同特征和相同的天气变化机制,分析表明台风生成的决定性因素是低层大尺度流场对台风生成区辐合的加强,致使水平切变急剧增大的结果。由此提出一个生消诊断公式,讨论了用天气学方法定量预报台风生消的可能性。