Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.

Regional Differences and Characteristics of Soil Organic Carbon Density Between Dry Land and Paddy Field in China

Study on the regional characteristics of soil organic carbon （SOC） density in farmland will not only contribute greatly to the technique of soil productivity enhancement, but also give evidences of technique selection and policy making for carbon sequestration in soils. Based on the second national soil survey of China, the situation of SOC density in the plow layer of farmland was analyzed under different land use patterns. Results showed that SOC density in the plow layer was about 3.15 kg m^-2 in average ranging from 0.81 to 12.68 kg m^-2. The highest density was found in the southeastern region with an average of 3.63 kg ma, while the lowest occurring in the northwestern region with an average of 3.00 kg m^-2. The variation coefficient of SOC density in the plow layer of farmland was 57%, which was 35% lower than that of non-farmland soils. Compared to SOC density in the dry land, SOC density in paddy soils was 13% higher with a lower variation coefficient between different regions. In addition, the relationships between the climatic factors （annual average temperature and precipitation） and SOC density were lower in farmland than those in non-farmland soils, as well as lower in paddy soils than those in dry land of farmland. These results suggest that anthropogenic disturbances have great impacts on SOC density in farmland soils, especially in paddy soils, indicating that Chinese rice cropping may contribute greatly to the SOC stability and sequestration in paddy field.

不同土地利用模式情景下贵州印江河流域生态水文响应研究

为定量分析不同土地利用模式情景对贵州印江河流域生态水文的影响,将降雨径流模型(SCS模型)和通用土壤侵蚀方程进行耦合,构建基于栅格的分布式水沙耦合模型,通过设定3种不同土地利用模式情景,定量分析不同土地利用模式情景下的生态水文响应。研究结果表明:构建的水沙耦合模型在研究流域具有较好的模拟精度,径流模拟相对误差均在10%以内,确定性系数0.7以上,泥沙负荷模拟相对误差均在20%以内,确定性系数0.5以上,模型满足水量和泥沙负荷模拟的精度要求;3种土地利用模式情景中,旱地面积增加10%,流域径流深增加11.5%,土壤侵蚀模数增加12.9%;林地和草地面积增加10%,流域径流深分别减少7.5%和6.3%,流域土壤侵蚀模数分别减少14.63%和6.78%,模型研究成果可以为贵州印江河流域生态保护提供参考价值。

Cropping pattern optimization considering uncertainty of water availability and water saving potential

In arid and semi-arid areas,the profitability of irrigated agriculture mainly depends on the availability of water resources and optimal cropping patterns of irrigation districts.In this study,an integrated agricultural cropping pattern optimization model was developed with considering the uncertainty of water availability and water saving potential in the future,aiming to maximize agricultural net benefit per unit of irrigation water.The available water which was based on the uncertainty of runoff was divided into five scenarios.The irrigation water-saving potential in the future was quantified by assuming an increase in the rate irrigation water-saving of 10% and 20%.The model was applied to the middle reaches of Heihe River basin,in Gansu Province,China.Results showed that if the irrigation water-saving rate was assumed to increase by 10%,then the net water-saving quantity would increase by 21.5-22.5 million m3 and the gross water-saving quantity would increase by 275.7-303.0 million m3.Similarly,if the irrigation water-saving rate increased by 20%,then the net water-saving quantity would increase by 43.0-45.1 million m3 and the gross water-saving quantity would increase by 331.7-383.2 million m3.If the agricultural cropping pattern was optimized,the optimal water and cultivated area allocation for maize would be greater than those for other crops.Under the premise that similar volume of irrigation water quantity was available in different scenarios,results showed differences in system benefit and net benefit per unit of irrigation water,for the distribution of available irrigation water was diverse in different irrigation districts.