In the contemporary era of technological advancement,smartphones have become an indispensable part of individuals’daily lives,exerting a pervasive influence.This paper presents an innovative approach to passenger cou...In the contemporary era of technological advancement,smartphones have become an indispensable part of individuals’daily lives,exerting a pervasive influence.This paper presents an innovative approach to passenger countingonbuses throughthe analysis ofWi-Fi signals emanating frompassengers’mobile devices.The study seeks to scrutinize the reliability of digital Wi-Fi environments in predicting bus occupancy levels,thereby addressing a crucial aspect of public transportation.The proposed system comprises three crucial elements:Signal capture,data filtration,and the calculation and estimation of passenger numbers.The pivotal findings reveal that the system demonstrates commendable accuracy in estimating passenger counts undermoderate-crowding conditions,with an average deviation of 20%from the ground truth and an accuracy rate ranging from 90%to 100%.This underscores its efficacy in scenarios characterized by moderate levels of crowding.However,in densely crowded conditions,the system exhibits a tendency to overestimate passenger numbers,occasionally doubling the actual count.While acknowledging the need for further research to enhance accuracy in crowded conditions,this study presents a pioneering avenue to address a significant concern in public transportation.The implications of the findings are poised to contribute substantially to the enhancement of bus operations and service quality.展开更多
Evacuated Tube Transport Technologies (ET3) offers the potential for more than an order of magnitude improvement in transportation efficiency, speed, cost, and effectiveness. An ET3 network may be optimized to susta...Evacuated Tube Transport Technologies (ET3) offers the potential for more than an order of magnitude improvement in transportation efficiency, speed, cost, and effectiveness. An ET3 network may be optimized to sustainably displace most global transportation by car, ship, truck, train, and jet aircraft. To do this, ET3 standards should adhere to certain key principals: maximum value through efficiency, reliability, and simplicity; equal consideration for passenger and cargo loads; optimum size; high speed/high frequency operation; demand oriented; random accessibility; scalability; high granularity; automated control; full speed passive switching; open standards of implementation; and maximum use of existing capacities, materials, and processes.展开更多
An estimation approach is proposed in this paper based on the binocular stereovision to collect the degree of crowdedness in public transports. The proposed method combines the disparity with frame differences to extr...An estimation approach is proposed in this paper based on the binocular stereovision to collect the degree of crowdedness in public transports. The proposed method combines the disparity with frame differences to extract the foreground object. An adaptive window normalized cross correlation (NCC) matching and interpolated method is applied to get the sub-pixel image disparity value. Then, the foreground object is projected to the horizontal plane to eliminate the influence of the occlusion and perspective effect. Finally the degree of crowdedness is calculated from the area and the perimeter of the foreground objects. Experimental results show that the proposed method can obtain good estimation results in the simulated scenes in the laboratory and on parking or moving buses. This approach is effective to illumination changes, shadows and occlusion of passengers.展开更多
This paper describes two perspectives to improve the passenger experience.The passenger satisfaction pyramid is introduced,consisting of the base of the pyramid(dissatisfiers)focusing on time well saved and the top of...This paper describes two perspectives to improve the passenger experience.The passenger satisfaction pyramid is introduced,consisting of the base of the pyramid(dissatisfiers)focusing on time well saved and the top of the pyramid(satisfiers)aiming at time well spent.The challenge in planning and design of public transport services is to find the most efficient(set of)design choices.Depending on the context this might either mean focusing on the top or on the bottom of the pyramid.We found that influencing and enhancing the qualities of the satisfiers is far more important than traditional studies showed us.For stations,regression analyses show that dissatisfiers are responsible for explaining almost half of the total score of the station and satisfiers are responsible for the other half of the scores passengers give for the station.We still have to put a lot of energy in getting the basics right,starting in the planning phase,but then we are not allowed to lean back.We have to keep investing in qualities like ambience,comfort and experience which makes the customers truly happy at the end of the day.展开更多
Railway passenger flow forecasting can help to develop sensible railway schedules,make full use of railway resources,and meet the travel demand of passengers.The structure of passenger flow in railway networks and the...Railway passenger flow forecasting can help to develop sensible railway schedules,make full use of railway resources,and meet the travel demand of passengers.The structure of passenger flow in railway networks and the spatiotemporal relationship of passenger flow among stations are two distinctive features of railway passenger flow.Most of the previous studies used only a single feature for prediction and lacked correlations,resulting in suboptimal performance.To address the above-mentioned problem,we proposed the railway passenger flow prediction model called Flow-Similarity Attention Graph Convolutional Network(F-SAGCN).First,we constructed the passenger flow relations graph(RG)based on the Origin-Destination(OD).Second,the Passenger Flow Fluctuation Similarity(PFFS)algorithm is used to measure the similarity of passenger flow between stations,which helps construct the spatiotemporal similarity graph(SG).Then,we determine the weights of the mutual influence of different stations at different times through an attention mechanism and extract spatiotemporal features through graph convolution on the RG and SG.Finally,we fused the spatiotemporal features and the original temporal features of stations for prediction.The comparison experiments on a railway bureau’s accurate railway passenger flow data show that the proposed F-SAGCN method improved the prediction accuracy and reduced the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 46 stations to 7.93%.展开更多
A model is proposed to describe the passengers’route choice behaviors in urban railway traffic with stochastic link capacity degradation by considering two types of demand,sensitive and insensitive passenger.The inse...A model is proposed to describe the passengers’route choice behaviors in urban railway traffic with stochastic link capacity degradation by considering two types of demand,sensitive and insensitive passenger.The insensitive passengers choose their route without paying much attention to congestion.To the contrary,sensitive passengers who consider route congestion choose travel route based on generalized cost.An equilibrium state is given by variational inequalities in terms of travel generalized cost,which is represented by the combinations of mean and variance of total travel time.The diagonalization algorithm is given to solve this programming.Results show that insensitive passengers have large effects on the path choice than sensitive ones,especially for the larger demand.展开更多
Train timetables and operations are defined by the train running time in sections,dwell time at stations,and headways between trains.Accurate estimation of these factors is essential to decision-making for train delay...Train timetables and operations are defined by the train running time in sections,dwell time at stations,and headways between trains.Accurate estimation of these factors is essential to decision-making for train delay reduction,train dispatching,and station capacity estimation.In the present study,we aim to propose a train dwell time model based on an averaging mechanism and dynamic updating to address the challenges in the train dwell time prediction problem(e.g.,dynamics over time,heavy-tailed distribution of data,and spatiotemporal relationships of factors)for real-time train dispatching.The averaging mechanism in the present study is based on multiple state-of-the-art base predictors,enabling the proposed model to integrate the advantages of the base predictors in addressing the challenges in terms of data attributes and data distributions.Then,considering the influence of passenger flow on train dwell time,we use a dynamic updating method based on exponential smoothing to improve the performance of the proposed method by considering the real-time passenger amount fluctuations(e.g.,passenger soars in peak hours or passenger plunges during regular periods).We conduct experiments with the train operation data and passenger flow data from the Chinese high-speed railway line.The results show that due to the advantages over the base predictors,the averaging mechanism can more accurately predict the dwell time at stations than its counterparts for different prediction horizons regarding predictive errors and variances.Further,the experimental results show that dynamic smoothing can significantly improve the accuracy of the proposed model during passenger amount changes,i.e.,15.4%and 15.5%corresponding to the mean absolute error and root mean square error,respectively.Based on the proposed predictor,a feature importance analysis shows that the planned dwell time and arrival delay are the two most important factors to dwell time.However,planned time has positive influences,whereas arrival delay has negative influences.展开更多
Under the background of the rapid development of the air transport industry, the abnormal phenomenon of flights has become increasingly serious due to various factors such as the gradual reduction of resources, advers...Under the background of the rapid development of the air transport industry, the abnormal phenomenon of flights has become increasingly serious due to various factors such as the gradual reduction of resources, adverse climatic conditions, problems in air traffic control and mechanical failures. In order to reduce losses, it has become a major problem for airlines to use optimization algorithm to study the recovery of abnormal flights. By upgrading the passenger recovery engine, the purpose of this paper is to provide the optimal recovery scheme for passengers, so as to reduce the risk of transferring overseas flights, and thus reduce the economic loss of airlines. In this paper, the optimization model and algorithm based on network flow, combined with actual business requirements, comprehensively consider multiple optimization objectives to quickly generate passenger recovery solutions, and at the same time achieve the optimal income of airlines and the acceptance rate of passenger recovery, so as to balance the two. The practicability and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm are proved by some concrete examples.展开更多
A taxi company in Shanghai has announced its plan to equip half of its fleet - about 6,000 taxis - with digital video recorders by the end of the year. According to the company, there will be four cameras per taxi, in...A taxi company in Shanghai has announced its plan to equip half of its fleet - about 6,000 taxis - with digital video recorders by the end of the year. According to the company, there will be four cameras per taxi, installed internally as well as externally to ensure the safety of both passengers and drivers.展开更多
The study evaluates the feasibility of running passenger train service from Las Vegas, NV on the Union Pacific Railroad (UPRR), to Barstow, on the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) track, to Mojave on UPRR track aga...The study evaluates the feasibility of running passenger train service from Las Vegas, NV on the Union Pacific Railroad (UPRR), to Barstow, on the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) track, to Mojave on UPRR track again, and to Lancaster connecting Metrolink to their destinations in Southern California. In this study, the railroad infrastructure was inventoried and issues related to running the passenger service were identified. Passenger train operation was evaluated based on the Rail Traffic Controller (RTC) simulation model. The performance measures of passenger trains including travel time, overall delay and average speed are analyzed. The uncertainty in freight flow and its impact on providing the passenger service is addressed by conducting a sensitivity analysis. The conclusion is that the existing railroad infrastructure is sufficient to provide a passenger train service from Las Vegas to Los Angeles. From an operational perspective, the passenger train is not expected to influence freight trains’ performance on the existing railroads. When freight train flows are increased to 50%, the influence of passenger train service on the freight operation is still minimal. This study recommends restoring a platform at the Las Vegas Station. At the Mojave Station, special care should be given on running the passenger trains where there is no direct railroad connection from BNSF to UPRR. Platforms and walkways require construction at the Lancaster Station for transferring passengers between the Metrolink trains and X-Train. Transferring the passenger train at this station involves stopping the train on mainline and coordinating the operations between different railroads.展开更多
Purpose – This paper aims to propose a medium-term forecast model for the daily passenger volume of HighSpeed Railway (HSR) systems to predict the daily the Origin-Destination (OD) daily volume formultiple consecutiv...Purpose – This paper aims to propose a medium-term forecast model for the daily passenger volume of HighSpeed Railway (HSR) systems to predict the daily the Origin-Destination (OD) daily volume formultiple consecutivedays (e.g. 120 days).Design/methodology/approach – By analyzing the characteristics of the historical data on daily passengervolume of HSR systems, the date and holiday labels were designed with determined value ranges.In accordance to the autoregressive characteristics of the daily passenger volume of HSR, the Double LayerParallel Wavelet Neural Network (DLP-WNN) model suitable for the medium-term (about 120 d) forecast of thedaily passenger volume of HSR was established. The DLP-WNN model obtains the daily forecast result byweighed summation of the daily output values of the two subnets. Subnet 1 reflects the overall trend of dailypassenger volumes in the recent period, and subnet 2 the daily fluctuation of the daily passenger volume toensure the accuracy of medium-term forecast.Findings – According to the example application, in which the DLP-WNN modelwas used for the medium-termforecast of the daily passenger volumes for 120 days for typical O-D pairs at 4 different distances, the averageabsolute percentage error is 7%-12%, obviously lower than the results measured by the Back Propagation (BP)neural network, the ELM (extreme learning machine), the ELMAN neural network, the GRNN (generalizedregression neural network) and the VMD-GA-BP. The DLP-WNN model was verified to be suitable for themedium-term forecast of the daily passenger volume of HSR.Originality/value – This study proposed a Double Layer Parallel structure forecast model for medium-termdaily passenger volume (about 120 days) of HSR systems by using the date and holiday labels and WaveletNeural Network. The predict results are important input data for supporting the line planning, scheduling andother decisions in operation and management in HSR systems.展开更多
Purpose-This study aims to improve the passenger accessibility of passenger demands in the end-ofoperation period.Design/methodology/approach-A mixed integer nonlinear programming model for last train timetable optim...Purpose-This study aims to improve the passenger accessibility of passenger demands in the end-ofoperation period.Design/methodology/approach-A mixed integer nonlinear programming model for last train timetable optimization of the metro was proposed considering the constraints such as the maximum headway,the minimum headway and the latest end-of-operation time.The objective of the model is to maximize the number of reachable passengers in the end-of-operation period.A solution method based on a preset train service is proposed,which significantly reduces the variables of deciding train services in the original model and reformulates it into a mixed integer linear programming model.Findings-The results of the case study of Wuhan Metro show that the solution method can obtain highquality solutions in a shorter time;and the shorter the time interval of passenger flow data,the more obvious the advantage of solution speed;after optimization,the number of passengers reaching the destination among the passengers who need to take the last train during the end-of-operation period can be increased by 10%.Originality/value-Existing research results only consider the passengers who take the last train.Compared with previous research,considering the overall passenger demand during the end-of-operation period can make more passengers arrive at their destination.Appropriately delaying the end-of-operation time can increase the proportion of passengers who can reach the destination in the metro network,but due to the decrease in passenger demand,postponing the end-of-operation time has a bottleneck in increasing the proportion of passengers who can reach the destination.展开更多
The highway capacity manual(HCM)provides a formula to calculate the heavy vehicle adjustment factor(fHV)as a function of passenger car equivalent factors for the heavy vehicle(ET).However,a significant drawback is tha...The highway capacity manual(HCM)provides a formula to calculate the heavy vehicle adjustment factor(fHV)as a function of passenger car equivalent factors for the heavy vehicle(ET).However,a significant drawback is that the methodology was established solely based on human-driven passenger cars(HDPC)and human-driven heavy vehicles(HDHV).Due to automated passenger cars(APCs),a new adjustment factor(fAV)might be expected.This study simulated traffic flows at different percentages of HDHVs and APCs to investigate the impacts of HDHVs and APCs on freeway capacity by analyzing their influence on fHV and fAV values.The simulation determined observed adjustment factors at different percentages of HDHVs and APCs(fobserved).The HCM formula was used to calculate(fHCM).Modifications to the HCM formula are proposed,and vehicle adjustment factors due to HDHVs and APCs were calculated(fproposed).Results showed that,in the presence of APCs,while fobserved and fHCM were statistically significantly different,fobserved and fproposed were statistically equal.Hence,this study recommends using the proposed formula when determining vehicle adjustment factors(fproposed)due to HDHVs and APCs in the traffic stream.展开更多
A precise and timely forecast of short-term rail transit passenger flow provides data support for traffic management and operation,assisting rail operators in efficiently allocating resources and timely relieving pres...A precise and timely forecast of short-term rail transit passenger flow provides data support for traffic management and operation,assisting rail operators in efficiently allocating resources and timely relieving pressure on passenger safety and operation.First,the passenger flow sequence models in the study are broken down using VMD for noise reduction.The objective environment features are then added to the characteristic factors that affect the passenger flow.The target station serves as an additional spatial feature and is mined concurrently using the KNN algorithm.It is shown that the hybrid model VMD-CLSMT has a higher prediction accuracy,by setting BP,CNN,and LSTM reference experiments.All models’second order prediction effects are superior to their first order effects,showing that the residual network can significantly raise model prediction accuracy.Additionally,it confirms the efficacy of supplementary and objective environmental features.展开更多
基金from Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz UniversityProject Number(PSAU/2023/R/1445).
文摘In the contemporary era of technological advancement,smartphones have become an indispensable part of individuals’daily lives,exerting a pervasive influence.This paper presents an innovative approach to passenger countingonbuses throughthe analysis ofWi-Fi signals emanating frompassengers’mobile devices.The study seeks to scrutinize the reliability of digital Wi-Fi environments in predicting bus occupancy levels,thereby addressing a crucial aspect of public transportation.The proposed system comprises three crucial elements:Signal capture,data filtration,and the calculation and estimation of passenger numbers.The pivotal findings reveal that the system demonstrates commendable accuracy in estimating passenger counts undermoderate-crowding conditions,with an average deviation of 20%from the ground truth and an accuracy rate ranging from 90%to 100%.This underscores its efficacy in scenarios characterized by moderate levels of crowding.However,in densely crowded conditions,the system exhibits a tendency to overestimate passenger numbers,occasionally doubling the actual count.While acknowledging the need for further research to enhance accuracy in crowded conditions,this study presents a pioneering avenue to address a significant concern in public transportation.The implications of the findings are poised to contribute substantially to the enhancement of bus operations and service quality.
文摘Evacuated Tube Transport Technologies (ET3) offers the potential for more than an order of magnitude improvement in transportation efficiency, speed, cost, and effectiveness. An ET3 network may be optimized to sustainably displace most global transportation by car, ship, truck, train, and jet aircraft. To do this, ET3 standards should adhere to certain key principals: maximum value through efficiency, reliability, and simplicity; equal consideration for passenger and cargo loads; optimum size; high speed/high frequency operation; demand oriented; random accessibility; scalability; high granularity; automated control; full speed passive switching; open standards of implementation; and maximum use of existing capacities, materials, and processes.
基金supported by the Development Foundation of Shanghai Municipal Commission of Science and Technology (Grant No.072112007)the Shanghai Leading Acdemic Discipline Project (Grant No.J50104)
文摘An estimation approach is proposed in this paper based on the binocular stereovision to collect the degree of crowdedness in public transports. The proposed method combines the disparity with frame differences to extract the foreground object. An adaptive window normalized cross correlation (NCC) matching and interpolated method is applied to get the sub-pixel image disparity value. Then, the foreground object is projected to the horizontal plane to eliminate the influence of the occlusion and perspective effect. Finally the degree of crowdedness is calculated from the area and the perimeter of the foreground objects. Experimental results show that the proposed method can obtain good estimation results in the simulated scenes in the laboratory and on parking or moving buses. This approach is effective to illumination changes, shadows and occlusion of passengers.
文摘This paper describes two perspectives to improve the passenger experience.The passenger satisfaction pyramid is introduced,consisting of the base of the pyramid(dissatisfiers)focusing on time well saved and the top of the pyramid(satisfiers)aiming at time well spent.The challenge in planning and design of public transport services is to find the most efficient(set of)design choices.Depending on the context this might either mean focusing on the top or on the bottom of the pyramid.We found that influencing and enhancing the qualities of the satisfiers is far more important than traditional studies showed us.For stations,regression analyses show that dissatisfiers are responsible for explaining almost half of the total score of the station and satisfiers are responsible for the other half of the scores passengers give for the station.We still have to put a lot of energy in getting the basics right,starting in the planning phase,but then we are not allowed to lean back.We have to keep investing in qualities like ambience,comfort and experience which makes the customers truly happy at the end of the day.
文摘Railway passenger flow forecasting can help to develop sensible railway schedules,make full use of railway resources,and meet the travel demand of passengers.The structure of passenger flow in railway networks and the spatiotemporal relationship of passenger flow among stations are two distinctive features of railway passenger flow.Most of the previous studies used only a single feature for prediction and lacked correlations,resulting in suboptimal performance.To address the above-mentioned problem,we proposed the railway passenger flow prediction model called Flow-Similarity Attention Graph Convolutional Network(F-SAGCN).First,we constructed the passenger flow relations graph(RG)based on the Origin-Destination(OD).Second,the Passenger Flow Fluctuation Similarity(PFFS)algorithm is used to measure the similarity of passenger flow between stations,which helps construct the spatiotemporal similarity graph(SG).Then,we determine the weights of the mutual influence of different stations at different times through an attention mechanism and extract spatiotemporal features through graph convolution on the RG and SG.Finally,we fused the spatiotemporal features and the original temporal features of stations for prediction.The comparison experiments on a railway bureau’s accurate railway passenger flow data show that the proposed F-SAGCN method improved the prediction accuracy and reduced the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 46 stations to 7.93%.
基金Project(71525002) supported by China National Funds for Distinguished Young ScientistsProjects(71271023,71210001) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(RCS2015ZZ003) supported by the Research Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety,Beijing Jiaotong University,China
文摘A model is proposed to describe the passengers’route choice behaviors in urban railway traffic with stochastic link capacity degradation by considering two types of demand,sensitive and insensitive passenger.The insensitive passengers choose their route without paying much attention to congestion.To the contrary,sensitive passengers who consider route congestion choose travel route based on generalized cost.An equilibrium state is given by variational inequalities in terms of travel generalized cost,which is represented by the combinations of mean and variance of total travel time.The diagonalization algorithm is given to solve this programming.Results show that insensitive passengers have large effects on the path choice than sensitive ones,especially for the larger demand.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71871188).
文摘Train timetables and operations are defined by the train running time in sections,dwell time at stations,and headways between trains.Accurate estimation of these factors is essential to decision-making for train delay reduction,train dispatching,and station capacity estimation.In the present study,we aim to propose a train dwell time model based on an averaging mechanism and dynamic updating to address the challenges in the train dwell time prediction problem(e.g.,dynamics over time,heavy-tailed distribution of data,and spatiotemporal relationships of factors)for real-time train dispatching.The averaging mechanism in the present study is based on multiple state-of-the-art base predictors,enabling the proposed model to integrate the advantages of the base predictors in addressing the challenges in terms of data attributes and data distributions.Then,considering the influence of passenger flow on train dwell time,we use a dynamic updating method based on exponential smoothing to improve the performance of the proposed method by considering the real-time passenger amount fluctuations(e.g.,passenger soars in peak hours or passenger plunges during regular periods).We conduct experiments with the train operation data and passenger flow data from the Chinese high-speed railway line.The results show that due to the advantages over the base predictors,the averaging mechanism can more accurately predict the dwell time at stations than its counterparts for different prediction horizons regarding predictive errors and variances.Further,the experimental results show that dynamic smoothing can significantly improve the accuracy of the proposed model during passenger amount changes,i.e.,15.4%and 15.5%corresponding to the mean absolute error and root mean square error,respectively.Based on the proposed predictor,a feature importance analysis shows that the planned dwell time and arrival delay are the two most important factors to dwell time.However,planned time has positive influences,whereas arrival delay has negative influences.
文摘Under the background of the rapid development of the air transport industry, the abnormal phenomenon of flights has become increasingly serious due to various factors such as the gradual reduction of resources, adverse climatic conditions, problems in air traffic control and mechanical failures. In order to reduce losses, it has become a major problem for airlines to use optimization algorithm to study the recovery of abnormal flights. By upgrading the passenger recovery engine, the purpose of this paper is to provide the optimal recovery scheme for passengers, so as to reduce the risk of transferring overseas flights, and thus reduce the economic loss of airlines. In this paper, the optimization model and algorithm based on network flow, combined with actual business requirements, comprehensively consider multiple optimization objectives to quickly generate passenger recovery solutions, and at the same time achieve the optimal income of airlines and the acceptance rate of passenger recovery, so as to balance the two. The practicability and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm are proved by some concrete examples.
文摘A taxi company in Shanghai has announced its plan to equip half of its fleet - about 6,000 taxis - with digital video recorders by the end of the year. According to the company, there will be four cameras per taxi, installed internally as well as externally to ensure the safety of both passengers and drivers.
文摘The study evaluates the feasibility of running passenger train service from Las Vegas, NV on the Union Pacific Railroad (UPRR), to Barstow, on the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) track, to Mojave on UPRR track again, and to Lancaster connecting Metrolink to their destinations in Southern California. In this study, the railroad infrastructure was inventoried and issues related to running the passenger service were identified. Passenger train operation was evaluated based on the Rail Traffic Controller (RTC) simulation model. The performance measures of passenger trains including travel time, overall delay and average speed are analyzed. The uncertainty in freight flow and its impact on providing the passenger service is addressed by conducting a sensitivity analysis. The conclusion is that the existing railroad infrastructure is sufficient to provide a passenger train service from Las Vegas to Los Angeles. From an operational perspective, the passenger train is not expected to influence freight trains’ performance on the existing railroads. When freight train flows are increased to 50%, the influence of passenger train service on the freight operation is still minimal. This study recommends restoring a platform at the Las Vegas Station. At the Mojave Station, special care should be given on running the passenger trains where there is no direct railroad connection from BNSF to UPRR. Platforms and walkways require construction at the Lancaster Station for transferring passengers between the Metrolink trains and X-Train. Transferring the passenger train at this station involves stopping the train on mainline and coordinating the operations between different railroads.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.72171236 and 71701216)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFB1600400)+2 种基金the China Scholarship Council(202008360277)the Key Science and Technology Research Program of the Educational Department of Jiangxi Province(Grant No.GJJ200605)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(Grant No.2020JJ5783).
文摘Purpose – This paper aims to propose a medium-term forecast model for the daily passenger volume of HighSpeed Railway (HSR) systems to predict the daily the Origin-Destination (OD) daily volume formultiple consecutivedays (e.g. 120 days).Design/methodology/approach – By analyzing the characteristics of the historical data on daily passengervolume of HSR systems, the date and holiday labels were designed with determined value ranges.In accordance to the autoregressive characteristics of the daily passenger volume of HSR, the Double LayerParallel Wavelet Neural Network (DLP-WNN) model suitable for the medium-term (about 120 d) forecast of thedaily passenger volume of HSR was established. The DLP-WNN model obtains the daily forecast result byweighed summation of the daily output values of the two subnets. Subnet 1 reflects the overall trend of dailypassenger volumes in the recent period, and subnet 2 the daily fluctuation of the daily passenger volume toensure the accuracy of medium-term forecast.Findings – According to the example application, in which the DLP-WNN modelwas used for the medium-termforecast of the daily passenger volumes for 120 days for typical O-D pairs at 4 different distances, the averageabsolute percentage error is 7%-12%, obviously lower than the results measured by the Back Propagation (BP)neural network, the ELM (extreme learning machine), the ELMAN neural network, the GRNN (generalizedregression neural network) and the VMD-GA-BP. The DLP-WNN model was verified to be suitable for themedium-term forecast of the daily passenger volume of HSR.Originality/value – This study proposed a Double Layer Parallel structure forecast model for medium-termdaily passenger volume (about 120 days) of HSR systems by using the date and holiday labels and WaveletNeural Network. The predict results are important input data for supporting the line planning, scheduling andother decisions in operation and management in HSR systems.
基金supported by Talents Funds for Basic Scientific Research Business Expenses of Central Colleges and Universities (Grant No.2021RC228)Special Funds for Basic Scientific Research Business Expenses of Central Colleges and Universities (Grant No.2021YJS103).
文摘Purpose-This study aims to improve the passenger accessibility of passenger demands in the end-ofoperation period.Design/methodology/approach-A mixed integer nonlinear programming model for last train timetable optimization of the metro was proposed considering the constraints such as the maximum headway,the minimum headway and the latest end-of-operation time.The objective of the model is to maximize the number of reachable passengers in the end-of-operation period.A solution method based on a preset train service is proposed,which significantly reduces the variables of deciding train services in the original model and reformulates it into a mixed integer linear programming model.Findings-The results of the case study of Wuhan Metro show that the solution method can obtain highquality solutions in a shorter time;and the shorter the time interval of passenger flow data,the more obvious the advantage of solution speed;after optimization,the number of passengers reaching the destination among the passengers who need to take the last train during the end-of-operation period can be increased by 10%.Originality/value-Existing research results only consider the passengers who take the last train.Compared with previous research,considering the overall passenger demand during the end-of-operation period can make more passengers arrive at their destination.Appropriately delaying the end-of-operation time can increase the proportion of passengers who can reach the destination in the metro network,but due to the decrease in passenger demand,postponing the end-of-operation time has a bottleneck in increasing the proportion of passengers who can reach the destination.
文摘The highway capacity manual(HCM)provides a formula to calculate the heavy vehicle adjustment factor(fHV)as a function of passenger car equivalent factors for the heavy vehicle(ET).However,a significant drawback is that the methodology was established solely based on human-driven passenger cars(HDPC)and human-driven heavy vehicles(HDHV).Due to automated passenger cars(APCs),a new adjustment factor(fAV)might be expected.This study simulated traffic flows at different percentages of HDHVs and APCs to investigate the impacts of HDHVs and APCs on freeway capacity by analyzing their influence on fHV and fAV values.The simulation determined observed adjustment factors at different percentages of HDHVs and APCs(fobserved).The HCM formula was used to calculate(fHCM).Modifications to the HCM formula are proposed,and vehicle adjustment factors due to HDHVs and APCs were calculated(fproposed).Results showed that,in the presence of APCs,while fobserved and fHCM were statistically significantly different,fobserved and fproposed were statistically equal.Hence,this study recommends using the proposed formula when determining vehicle adjustment factors(fproposed)due to HDHVs and APCs in the traffic stream.
基金the Major Projects of the National Social Science Fund in China(21&ZD127).
文摘A precise and timely forecast of short-term rail transit passenger flow provides data support for traffic management and operation,assisting rail operators in efficiently allocating resources and timely relieving pressure on passenger safety and operation.First,the passenger flow sequence models in the study are broken down using VMD for noise reduction.The objective environment features are then added to the characteristic factors that affect the passenger flow.The target station serves as an additional spatial feature and is mined concurrently using the KNN algorithm.It is shown that the hybrid model VMD-CLSMT has a higher prediction accuracy,by setting BP,CNN,and LSTM reference experiments.All models’second order prediction effects are superior to their first order effects,showing that the residual network can significantly raise model prediction accuracy.Additionally,it confirms the efficacy of supplementary and objective environmental features.