In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because o...In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning.A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability.The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study;the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries,rivers,and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang.Therefore,the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.展开更多
Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike fail...Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering.展开更多
Based on the analysis of hanging rivers' actuality in the lower Yellow River and researches related to the evaluation of dike breach risks,it is put forward that the influencing factors of dike beach risks in the ...Based on the analysis of hanging rivers' actuality in the lower Yellow River and researches related to the evaluation of dike breach risks,it is put forward that the influencing factors of dike beach risks in the lower Yellow River should involve four aspects,the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes.With this,the evaluation indexes system of dike breach risks is established,and with the support of geographic information systems technology,the model of multi-hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment is applied to estimate the dike beach risks of the hanging rivers in the lower Yellow River under different flood conditions.The evaluation results of dike breach risks show the following distributing regularities of dike breach risks in the lower Yellow River:(1) Dike breach risks increase with the increase of the flood.(2) Dike breach risks decrease with the changes of river patterns along the channel.(3) There are great risks of dike breach in the wandering reaches,and it is relatively higher in the south bank than in the north in wandering reaches.(4) There is a higher dike breach risk in the north bank than in the south in winding reaches.Simultaneously,the evaluation results manifest that the evaluation indexes system established from the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes can represent the actual situation of the lower Yellow River more comprehensively.The application of multihierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment can preferably resolve the problem of hanging river dike breach,which has numerous influencing factors and complicated functionary mechanisms.The applications of geographic information systems technology with powerful spatial analysis functions make dike beach risks quantificationally displayed in different spatial positions,and reflect the differences of dike beach risks in different spatial positions of the channel in the lower Yellow River.展开更多
近年来洪水引发的中小河流堤防溃决等洪水灾害风险问题凸显,因此进行溃堤洪水风险分析对于加强中小河流的洪水管理及减少溃堤洪水带来的损失具有十分重要的意义。以江西省罗塘河为例,借助MIKE软件中的MIKE 11、MIKE 21及其耦合模块对罗...近年来洪水引发的中小河流堤防溃决等洪水灾害风险问题凸显,因此进行溃堤洪水风险分析对于加强中小河流的洪水管理及减少溃堤洪水带来的损失具有十分重要的意义。以江西省罗塘河为例,借助MIKE软件中的MIKE 11、MIKE 21及其耦合模块对罗塘河遭遇10a一遇及20a一遇洪水进行溃堤洪水演进模拟。然后依据灾害系统理论从洪水的危险性和易损性两方面选择淹没水深、淹没流速、淹没历时等7个指标构建溃堤洪水风险评价指标体系。最后利用GIS技术与层次分析法对罗塘河洪水风险进行了评价。结果表明:洪水危险区面积为0.19 km 2,占研究区总面积的2.18%,主要分布在地势低洼的富港地区;重灾区和中灾区面积为1.25 km 2,占研究区总面积的14.37%,主要分布在重文和蒋元乐家;安全区为研究区域内洪水没有到达并且地物覆盖价值较低的地区,包括游家店、下胡、大塘杨家和马山等处。研究成果可为中小河流防洪规划、避洪转移等提供参考依据。展开更多
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC1402000)
文摘In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning.A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability.The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study;the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries,rivers,and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang.Therefore,the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.
基金supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.201362030)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41106077 and 51379195)+3 种基金Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.R5110036)Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.ZR2013EEM034)Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting(Grant No.LOMF1101)SRF for ROCS,SEM
文摘Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering.
基金The State Science Research Plan (Grant no.96-920-09-01)
文摘Based on the analysis of hanging rivers' actuality in the lower Yellow River and researches related to the evaluation of dike breach risks,it is put forward that the influencing factors of dike beach risks in the lower Yellow River should involve four aspects,the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes.With this,the evaluation indexes system of dike breach risks is established,and with the support of geographic information systems technology,the model of multi-hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment is applied to estimate the dike beach risks of the hanging rivers in the lower Yellow River under different flood conditions.The evaluation results of dike breach risks show the following distributing regularities of dike breach risks in the lower Yellow River:(1) Dike breach risks increase with the increase of the flood.(2) Dike breach risks decrease with the changes of river patterns along the channel.(3) There are great risks of dike breach in the wandering reaches,and it is relatively higher in the south bank than in the north in wandering reaches.(4) There is a higher dike breach risk in the north bank than in the south in winding reaches.Simultaneously,the evaluation results manifest that the evaluation indexes system established from the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes can represent the actual situation of the lower Yellow River more comprehensively.The application of multihierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment can preferably resolve the problem of hanging river dike breach,which has numerous influencing factors and complicated functionary mechanisms.The applications of geographic information systems technology with powerful spatial analysis functions make dike beach risks quantificationally displayed in different spatial positions,and reflect the differences of dike beach risks in different spatial positions of the channel in the lower Yellow River.
文摘近年来洪水引发的中小河流堤防溃决等洪水灾害风险问题凸显,因此进行溃堤洪水风险分析对于加强中小河流的洪水管理及减少溃堤洪水带来的损失具有十分重要的意义。以江西省罗塘河为例,借助MIKE软件中的MIKE 11、MIKE 21及其耦合模块对罗塘河遭遇10a一遇及20a一遇洪水进行溃堤洪水演进模拟。然后依据灾害系统理论从洪水的危险性和易损性两方面选择淹没水深、淹没流速、淹没历时等7个指标构建溃堤洪水风险评价指标体系。最后利用GIS技术与层次分析法对罗塘河洪水风险进行了评价。结果表明:洪水危险区面积为0.19 km 2,占研究区总面积的2.18%,主要分布在地势低洼的富港地区;重灾区和中灾区面积为1.25 km 2,占研究区总面积的14.37%,主要分布在重文和蒋元乐家;安全区为研究区域内洪水没有到达并且地物覆盖价值较低的地区,包括游家店、下胡、大塘杨家和马山等处。研究成果可为中小河流防洪规划、避洪转移等提供参考依据。
