This paper aims to study a novel expansion discrete grey forecasting model, which could aggregate input information more effectively. In general, existing multi-factor grey forecasting models, such as one order and h ...This paper aims to study a novel expansion discrete grey forecasting model, which could aggregate input information more effectively. In general, existing multi-factor grey forecasting models, such as one order and h variables grey forecasting model （GM （1, h））, always aggregate the main system variable and independent variables in a linear form rather than a nonlinear form, while a nonlinear form could be used in more cases than the linear form. And the nonlinear form could aggregate collinear independent factors, which widely lie in many multi-factor forecasting problems. To overcome this problem, a new approach, named as the Solow residual method, is proposed to aggregate independent factors. And a new expansion model, feedback multi-factor discrete grey forecasting model based on the Solow residual method （abbreviated as FDGM （1, h））, is proposed accordingly. Then the feedback control equation and the parameters＇ solution of the FDGM （1, h） model are given. Finally, a real application is used to test the modelling accuracy of the FDGM （1, h） model. Results show that the FDGM （1, h） model is much better than the nonhomogeneous discrete grey forecasting model （NDGM） and the GM （1, h） model.展开更多
针对平行粘结模型不能同时满足岩石抗拉强度和抗压强度的问题,通过模拟岩石的单轴拉伸试验和单轴压缩试验,以已有的Lac du Bonnet花岗岩的室内试验结果为目标,标定了不同孔隙比和不同不均匀系数岩石离散元试样的微观参数。从微观破坏机...针对平行粘结模型不能同时满足岩石抗拉强度和抗压强度的问题,通过模拟岩石的单轴拉伸试验和单轴压缩试验,以已有的Lac du Bonnet花岗岩的室内试验结果为目标,标定了不同孔隙比和不同不均匀系数岩石离散元试样的微观参数。从微观破坏机制角度指出了平行粘结模型的不足之处,并提出了改进方法。研究结果表明:满足抗拉强度和抗压强度的微观胶结强度参数相差一个数量级;模型仅考虑了胶结的抗拉和抗剪特性,忽略了法向力对胶结强度的影响,导致模型不能正确反映岩石的拉压强度比值;建议采用可模拟颗粒破碎的团粒模型或者基于室内试验提出的胶接模型。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7117111370901041)
文摘This paper aims to study a novel expansion discrete grey forecasting model, which could aggregate input information more effectively. In general, existing multi-factor grey forecasting models, such as one order and h variables grey forecasting model （GM （1, h））, always aggregate the main system variable and independent variables in a linear form rather than a nonlinear form, while a nonlinear form could be used in more cases than the linear form. And the nonlinear form could aggregate collinear independent factors, which widely lie in many multi-factor forecasting problems. To overcome this problem, a new approach, named as the Solow residual method, is proposed to aggregate independent factors. And a new expansion model, feedback multi-factor discrete grey forecasting model based on the Solow residual method （abbreviated as FDGM （1, h））, is proposed accordingly. Then the feedback control equation and the parameters＇ solution of the FDGM （1, h） model are given. Finally, a real application is used to test the modelling accuracy of the FDGM （1, h） model. Results show that the FDGM （1, h） model is much better than the nonhomogeneous discrete grey forecasting model （NDGM） and the GM （1, h） model.
文摘针对平行粘结模型不能同时满足岩石抗拉强度和抗压强度的问题,通过模拟岩石的单轴拉伸试验和单轴压缩试验,以已有的Lac du Bonnet花岗岩的室内试验结果为目标,标定了不同孔隙比和不同不均匀系数岩石离散元试样的微观参数。从微观破坏机制角度指出了平行粘结模型的不足之处,并提出了改进方法。研究结果表明:满足抗拉强度和抗压强度的微观胶结强度参数相差一个数量级;模型仅考虑了胶结的抗拉和抗剪特性,忽略了法向力对胶结强度的影响,导致模型不能正确反映岩石的拉压强度比值;建议采用可模拟颗粒破碎的团粒模型或者基于室内试验提出的胶接模型。
