Investment Risks of Agricultural Listed Companies from Visual Angle of Natural Disasters

The essential feature of agriculture is the interweave- ment of natural reproduction and economic reproduction.In recent years,the natural disasters have become more frequent and badly affect the production management and investment benefits.This problem has been an important risk in managing agricultural listed companies and cannot be ignored.It is of great importance to evaluate and prevent the risks of the natural disasters to enhance the competitive ability and increase the profits of those listed companies,thereby keeping the sustainable development of agri- cultural companies.

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI

Hazard factors, hazard-bearling objects, disaster-developing environment, and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone （TC） disasters. Of all of these, the most important is the intensity of hazard factors （risk sources）. In this study, this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors; then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors. The exceedance probability of various hazard factors, including frequency and timing, scope of wind and rain, and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases, are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai fi＇om 1959-2006. The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed, and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results. The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai. The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model, and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster. Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa （0716） would be more serious than those by TC Wipha （0713）, and that TC Fung Wong （0808） would have a weak impact. Real-life situations validate these results.

Developing a risk assessment system for gas tunnel disasters in China

Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amount of gas with a wide range of distribution. However, China experienced not only adverse effects on coal mining but also gas disasters in underground engineering construction, such as tunnels and chambers. With the increased number of tunnels passing through coal-bearing strata, the incidence of gas accidents is also rising. Therefore, the significance of preventing and mitigating gas disasters should be emphasized, and an effective risk assessment method for gas disasters should be established. On the basis of research on over 100 gas tunnels in China, a relatively ideal gas disaster risk assessment method and system for tunnels are established through the following measures. Firstly, geo-environmental conditions and gas situations were analyzed during construction. Secondly, qualitative analysis was combined with quantitative analysis. Finally, the influencing factors of gas disasters, including geological conditions, gas,and human factors, were investigated. The gas tunnel risk assessment system includes three levels:(1) the grading assessment of a gas tunnel during the planning stage,(2) the risk assessment of gas tunnel construction during the design and construction stages,(3) the gas tunnel outburst risk assessment during the coal uncovering stage. This system was applied to the dynamic assessment of gas disaster during the construction of the Zipingpu tunnel of Dujiangyan–Wenchuan Highway(in Sichuan, Southwest China). The assessment results were consistent with the actual excavation, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the system. The developed system was believed to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of gas disaster in the underground engineering construction.

Climate change and China's coastal zones and seas:Impacts,risks,and adaptation

This article provides an assessment of the changes in marine climate drivers(hazards),associated impacts,risks,and adaptation to the coastal China zones and seas since the mid 20th century.The results show that:①Marine climate drivers,such as ocean warming,sea level rise,typhoon,storm surges and marine heat waves(MHWs),have increased significantly in strength,frequency and range over the past decades.②Ocean warming has caused substantial changes in marine phenology,species composition,geographical distribution,and frequent occurrences of ecological disasters such as red tides,green tides,and macro-jellyfish outbreaks,while MHWs have induced degradation in tropical coral reefs and major losses in the marine aquaculture industry in the coastal China seas.③Sea level rise threatens the typical habitats of coastal wetlands such as mangrove and estuaries,and exacerbates coastal erosion,seawater intrusion and the impacts of typhoon,storm surges on the coastal flood disasters.④Human activities,such as large-scale reclamation,pollutant discharge,and overfishing,have increased the exposure and vulnerability of China's marine and coastal ecosystems,leading to the low-aging and miniaturization of fishery types,decline of offshore fishery resources,reduction of coastal wetland areas,and degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem stability.⑤Under different climate scenarios such as low and high greenhouse gases emission scenario(RCP 2.6 and 8.5),as the warming and sea level rise in the coastal China seas continue,extreme sea level(ESL)events will occur more frequently,e.g.,by the end of this century,the current once per century ESL events will become annually or even annually less(RCP 8.5)in many coastal areas,such as at Lvsi and Xiamen tidal gauge stations;and the ESL events could pose serious risks on the coastal areas.Finally,the article further discusses the adaptation measures and related uncertain issues to address climate change in the coastal China zones and seas,and puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions in order to reduce its negative impacts on the sustainable development of human community.

EU and international policies for hydrometeorological risks:Operational aspects and link to climate action

Changes in hydrometeorological characteristics and risks have been observed and are projected to increase under climate change. These considerations are scientifically well studied and led to the development of a complex policy framework for adaptation and mitigation for hydrometeorological risks. Awareness for policy actions is growing worldwide but no legal framework is in place to tackle climate change impacts on water at a global scale. With the example of international frameworks and the legislation on EU-level, this article elaborates that hydrometeorological risks are not considered in the framework of one single policy. However, various policy instruments are directly or indirectly considering these risks at different operational levels. It is discussed that a tailor-made framework for hydrometeorological risks would improve coordination at international or national level. A major drawback for a single operational framework is that hydrometeorological risks are scientifically tackled in two large communities: the disaster risk reduction community and the climate change adaptation community, both of which are bound to different research and operational funding budgets. In future, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will need been seen as a complementary set of actions that requires collaboration.

Areas vulnerable to natural disasters and damage estimation of infrastructure in Busan, Korea

Since the damages caused by disasters associated with climate anomalies and the diversification of the social structure increase every year, an efficient management system associated with a damage assessment of the areas vulnerable to disasters is demanded to prevent or mitigate the damages to infrastructure. The areas vulnerable to disasters in Busan, located at southeastern part of Korea, were estimated based on historical records of damages and a risk assessment of the infrastructure was performed to provide fundamental information prior to the establishment of the real-time monitoring system for infrastructure and establish disaster management system. The results are illustrated by using geographical information system(GIS) and provide the importance of the roadmap for comprehensive and specific strategy to manage natural disasters.

Study on Quantitative Assessment for the Social Risk of Major Geological Disasters

Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.

Natural Disaster Risk Monitoring for Immovable Cultural Relics Based on Digital Twin

Natural disaster risk monitoring is an important task for disaster prevention and reduction.In the case of immovable cultural relics,however,the feedback mechanism,risk factors,monitoring logic,and monitoring indicators of natural disaster risk monitoring are complex.How to achieve intelligent perception and monitoring of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics has always been a focus and a challenge for researchers.Based on the analysis of the concepts and issues related to the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics,this paper proposes a framework for natural disaster risk monitoring for immovable cultural relics based on the digital twin.This framework focuses on risk monitoring,including the physical entities of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics,monitoring indicators,and virtual entity construction.A platform for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics is proposed.Using the Puzhou Ancient City Site as a test bed,the proposed concept can be used for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics at different scales.

Exploring factors of disaster preparedness in UNESCO-designated heritage sites

Increased hazards threatening the United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)-designated sites and endangering cultural heritage and community well-being require attention and action.Con-sidering the pivotal role of UNESCO sites in conservation and development,this study assessed their levels of disaster preparedness.The absence of studies assessing disaster awareness,risk perception,and preparedness among UNESCO site actors,as well as the pivotal place of preparedness within the Disaster Risk Management(DRM)cycle justifies this research.Applying the tenets of the Person-Relative-to-Event framework,we hypothe-sized that a strong positive correlation exists between perceived risks,resources,and disaster preparedness.To collect pertinent data,we employed an embedded mixed-method design and conducted an online questionnaire survey yielding 141 responses from 59 countries.From the results of relevant analyses,wildfires,floods,and droughts are top hazards occurring frequently in UNESCO sites,with significant concerns about pollution and habitat loss during future events.Smartphones emerged as the most available crucial DRM resource,with higher availability of DRM resources correlating positively and significantly with sites’preparedness.Our findings con-tribute valuable insights to address missing links for disaster-ready and resilient UNESCO sites,promoting their preservation for future generations.

Extreme rain event highlights the lack of governance to face climate change in the Southeastern coast of Brazil

New rainfall records were registered in the southeastern region of Brazil during February 2023.The amount of rain in the north coast region of the State of São Paulo was more than 650 mm in less than two days.Landslides and tragedies with a socioeconomically vulnerable population marked this climatic extreme.The country has a regulatory system that suggests the elaboration and implementation of municipal public policies aimed at territorial organization,environmental conservation,and the prevention of disasters induced by natural hazards.In addition,both federal and state funds earmarked for such hazard's prevention have been underutilized over the last decade.In addition to this current devastating climate episode,other events were registered in this decade,reinforcing that financial governance is a key challenge to face the climate crisis in Brazil.The predicted future extreme events in different regions of Brazil will require a different governance system to minimize social inequality,seek sustainable alternatives for urban environments and manage to adapt cities for the challenges posed by climate change.

Mapping Climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Education from Social Disciplinary Theoretical Perspectives

Disaster is a social phenomenon. The occurrence and impacts of disasters including the education sector can be studied through a social problem lens. This paper draws meaning and understanding of DRR education using the sociological disciplinary framework in a detailed qualitative case study of three schools as they responded to the devastating Gorakha earthquake in 2015 and other disasters in Nepal. This paper considers the three sub-disciplines of sociology: the sociology of disaster, the sociology of education and the sociology of education governance in a development context. These sub-disciplines are nested together to analyse social, political and historical factors and their relationships which are helpful to identify risks and vulnerabilities in the education sector in Nepal. These are the major areas to explore the disaster context and needs of context-specific education acts (hereafter DRR education) to minimise the potential risks of disasters. The article concludes that the social disciplinary framework is significantly useful to analyse DRR education provisions and implications of education governance to mobilise school in disaster preparedness, response and recovery.

Preparing Youth for Disasters: The Need for a Contextualised Disaster Risk Reduction Curriculum in Schools

This study draws from detailed qualitative case studies of three schools that practise disaster risk reduction (DRR) education initiatives in their curriculum in Nepal. Using curriculum mapping and discourse analysis, it aims to elaborate the significance of relevant disaster risk reduction (DRR) content in school curriculum to prepare youths for disaster response and recovery. It elaborates the nature of the current DRR content covered in curricula and textbooks and provides suggestions to address the identified disaster-related issues in the school curriculum. It further elaborates that incorporation of local and contextualised DRR content in school curricula contributes to the establishment of the “culture of resilience” in disaster prone context like Nepal. It concludes that more organised and holistic approach is essential to develop disaster and management knowledge, skills and attitudes to youths.

An international program on Silk Road Disaster Risk Reduction--a Belt and Road initiative (2016-2020)

Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) is a Chinese national strategy which calls for cooperative economic, political and cultural exchange at the global level along the ancient Silk Road. The overwhelming natural hazards located along the belt and road bring great challenges to the success of BRI. In this framework, a 5-year international program was launched to address issues related to hazards assessment and disaster risk reduction(DRR). The first workshop of this program was held in Beijing with international experts from over 15 countries. Risk conditions on Belt and Road Countries(BRCs) have been shared and science and technology advancements on DRR have been disseminated during the workshop. Under this program, six task forces have been setup to carry out collaborative research works and three prioritized study areas have been established. This workshop announced the launching of this program which involved partners from different countries including Pakistan, Nepal, Russia, Italy, United Kingdom, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan. The program adopted the objectives of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and United Nation Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and was implemented to assess disaster risk in BRCs and to propose suitable measures for disaster control which can be appropriate both for an individual country and for specific sites. This paper deals with the outcomes of the workshop and points out opportunities for the near future international cooperation on this matter.

Assessment of prospective hazards resulting from the 2017 earthquake at the world heritage site Jiuzhaigou Valley, Sichuan, China

On August 8, 2017, a Ms = 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Jiuzhaigou Valley, in Sichuan Province, China(N: 33.20°, E: 103.82°). Jiuzhaigou Valley is an area recognized and listed as a world heritage site by UNESCO in 1992. Data analysis and field survey were conducted on the landslide, collapse, and debris flow gully, to assess the coseismic geological hazards generated by the earthquake using an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV), remote-sensing imaging, laser range finders, geological radars, and cameras. The results highlighted the occurrence of 13 landslides, 70 collapses, and 25 potential debris flow gullies following the earthquake. The hazards were classified on the basis of their size and the potential property loss attributable to them. Consequently, 14 large-scale hazards, 30 medium-sized hazards, and 64 small hazards accounting for 13%, 28%, and 59% of the total hazards, respectively, were identified. Based on the variation tendency of the geological hazards that ensued in areas affected by the Kanto earthquake(Japan), Chi-chi earthquake(Taiwan China), and Wenchuan earthquake(Sichuan China), the study predicts that, depending on the rain intensity cycle, the duration of geological hazard activities in the Jiuzhaigou Valley may last over ten years and will gradually decrease for the following five to ten yearsbefore returning to pre-earthquake levels. Thus,necessary monitoring and early warning systems must be implemented to ensure the safety of residents,workers and tourists during the construction of engineering projects and reopening of scenic sites to the public.

Spatio-temporal analysis of forest fire events in the Margalla Hills,Islamabad,Pakistan using socio-economic and environmental variable data with machine learning methods

Most forest fires in the Margalla Hills are related to human activities and socioeconomic factors are essential to assess their likelihood of occurrence.This study considers both environmental(altitude,precipitation,forest type,terrain and humidity index)and socioeconomic(population density,distance from roads and urban areas)factors to analyze how human behavior affects the risk of forest fires.Maximum entropy(Maxent)modelling and random forest(RF)machine learning methods were used to predict the probability and spatial diffusion patterns of forest fires in the Margalla Hills.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the area under the ROC curve(AUC)were used to compare the models.We studied the fire history from 1990 to 2019 to establish the relationship between the probability of forest fire and environmental and socioeconomic changes.Using Maxent,the AUC fire probability values for the 1999 s,2009 s,and 2019 s were 0.532,0.569,and 0.518,respectively;using RF,they were 0.782,0.825,and 0.789,respectively.Fires were mainly distributed in urban areas and their probability of occurrence was related to accessibility and human behaviour/activity.AUC principles for validation were greater in the random forest models than in the Maxent models.Our results can be used to establish preventive measures to reduce risks of forest fires by considering socio-economic and environmental conditions.

The use of UAVs for landslide disaster risk research and disaster risk management: a literature review

On a global scale,from 2005 to 2019,there were 275 high-magnitude,low-frequency disasters that involved 14,172 fatalities and four million affected people.Similar patterns have taken place during longer periods of time in recent decades.This paper aims to analyse the contribution of the international landslide research community to disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management in reference to the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs)in a literature review.The first section notes the relevance of disaster risk research contributions for the implementation of initiatives and strategies concerning disaster risk management.The second section highlights background information and current applications of drones in the field of hazards and risk.The methodology,which included a systematic peer review of journals in the ISI Web of Science and SCOPUS,was presented in the third section,where the results include analyses of the considered data.This study concludes that most current scholarly efforts remain rooted in hazards and post-disaster evaluation and response.Future landslide disaster risk research should be transdisciplinary in order to strengthen participation of the various relevant stakeholders in contributing to integrated disaster risk management at local,subnational,national,regional and global levels.

Scientific challenges of research on natural hazards and disaster risk

As a discipline,the science of natural hazards and disaster risk aims to explain the spatial-temporal pattern,process and mechanism,emergency response and risk mitigation of natural hazards,which requires a multidisci-plinary and interdisciplinary approach.With the support of Natural Science Finance of China(NSFC)and Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),in-depth research and systematic analysis on natural hazards and disaster risk were conducted.In this paper,the state of the art in research on natural hazards is summarized from seven aspects:formation process,mechanism and dynamic of natural hazards,disaster risk assessment,forecast,monitoring and early warning,disaster mitigation,emergency treatment and rescue,risk management and post-disaster re-construction.The trends within the natural hazards and disaster risk as a discipline were identified,along with existing shortcomings and significant gaps that need to be addressed.This paper highlighted:1)the scientific challenges including the frontier scientific issues and technological gaps on natural hazards and disaster risk dis-cipline from 2025 to 2035 in China,and 2)the proposal to develop a systemic and holistic natural hazards and disaster risk discipline.

Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulicfracturing induced earthquakes

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology.As for the intense actual demand,the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management.This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects:earthquake occurrence probability,maximum expected magnitude forecasting,seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems.In terms of earthquake occurrence probability,we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index(SI)and hydro-mechanism nucleation.Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid,power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters.For seismic risk analysis,we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model.Furthermore,this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir,critical physical process of runaway rupture,complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect.This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production,seismic hazard mitigation,emergency management and scientific research as a reference.

Disaster risk reduction in mountain areas: an initial overview on seeking pathways to global sustainability

As disasters cripple the world’s prospects for sustainable development, protecting the most vulnerable groups exposed to hazards is one of the main challenges facing humanity. Owing to the systemic nature of risk and the interactions and interdependencies between upland and lowland systems, healthy and productive mountain households and livelihoods are essential to global sustainability. This paper argues that, building on existing international frameworks, and integrated knowledge and praxis, the development of a global policy agenda should be established to build sustainable peace, sustainable security, and development.