The Finite-time Ruin Probability of a Discrete-time Risk Model with Subexponential and Dependent Insurance and Financial Risks

Consider a discrete-time risk model with insurance and financial risks in a stochastic economic environment. Assume that the insurance and financial risks form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors with a generic random vector following a wide type of dependence structure. An asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability with subexponential insurance risks is derived. In doing so, the subexponentiality of the product of two dependent random variables is investigated simultaneously.

Analysis of risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in patients with prostate cancer after castration and the construction of a risk prediction model

BACKGROUND Cancer patients often suffer from severe stress reactions psychologically,such as anxiety and depression.Prostate cancer(PC)is one of the common cancer types,with most patients diagnosed at advanced stages that cannot be treated by radical surgery and which are accompanied by complications such as bodily pain and bone metastasis.Therefore,attention should be given to the mental health status of PC patients as well as physical adverse events in the course of clinical treatment.AIM To analyze the risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in PC patients after castration and build a risk prediction model.METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on the data of 120 PC cases treated in Xi'an People's Hospital between January 2019 and January 2022.The patient cohort was divided into a training group(n=84)and a validation group(n=36)at a ratio of 7:3.The patients’anxiety symptoms and depression levels were assessed 2 wk after surgery with the Self-Rating Anxiety Scale(SAS)and the Selfrating Depression Scale(SDS),respectively.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting negative mood,and a risk prediction model was constructed.RESULTS In the training group,35 patients and 37 patients had an SAS score and an SDS score greater than or equal to 50,respectively.Based on the scores,we further subclassified patients into two groups:a bad mood group(n=35)and an emotional stability group(n=49).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative Visual Analogue Scale(VAS)score were independent risk factors affecting a patient's bad mood(P<0.05).In the training and validation groups,patients with adverse emotions exhibited significantly higher risk scores than emotionally stable patients(P<0.0001).The area under the curve(AUC)of the risk prediction model for predicting bad mood in the training group was 0.743,the specificity was 70.96%,and the sensitivity was 66.03%,while in the validation group,the AUC,specificity,and sensitivity were 0.755,66.67%,and 76.19%,respectively.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed aχ^(2) of 4.2856,a P value of 0.830,and a C-index of 0.773(0.692-0.854).The calibration curve revealed that the predicted curve was basically consistent with the actual curve,and the calibration curve showed that the prediction model had good discrimination and accuracy.Decision curve analysis showed that the model had a high net profit.CONCLUSION In PC patients,marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative pain(VAS)score are important factors affecting postoperative anxiety and depression.The logistic regression model can be used to successfully predict the risk of adverse psychological emotions.

Construction and validation of a risk-prediction model for anastomotic leakage after radical gastrectomy: A cohort study in China

Objectives:Anastomotic leakage(AL)stands out as a prevalent and severe complication following gastric cancer surgery.It frequently precipitates additional serious complications,significantly influencing the overall survival time of patients.This study aims to enhance the risk-assessment strategy for AL following gastrectomy for gastric cancer.Methods:This study included a derivation cohort and validation cohort.The derivation cohort included patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital,Zhejiang University School of Medicine,from January 1,2015 to December 31,2020.An evidence-based predictor questionnaire was crafted through extensive literature review and panel discussions.Based on the questionnaire,inpatient data were collected to form a model-derivation cohort.This cohort underwent both univariate and multivariate analyses to identify factors associated with AL events,and a logistic regression model with stepwise regression was developed.A 5-fold cross-validation ensured model reliability.The validation cohort included patients from August 1,2021 to December 31,2021 at the same hospital.Using the same imputation method,we organized the validation-queue data.We then employed the risk-prediction model constructed in the earlier phase of the study to predict the risk of AL in the subjects included in the validation queue.We compared the predictions with the actual occurrence,and evaluated the external validation performance of the model using model-evaluation indicators such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),Brier score,and calibration curve.Results:The derivation cohort included 1377 patients,and the validation cohort included 131 patients.The independent predictors of AL after radical gastrectomy included age65 y,preoperative albumin<35 g/L,resection extent,operative time240 min,and intraoperative blood loss90 mL.The predictive model exhibited a solid AUROC of 0.750(95%CI:0.694e0.806;p<0.001)with a Brier score of 0.049.The 5-fold cross-validation confirmed these findings with a calibrated C-index of 0.749 and an average Brier score of 0.052.External validation showed an AUROC of 0.723(95%CI:0.564e0.882;p?0.006)and a Brier score of 0.055,confirming reliability in different clinical settings.Conclusions:We successfully developed a risk-prediction model for AL following radical gastrectomy.This tool will aid healthcare professionals in anticipating AL,potentially reducing unnecessary interventions.

Locally and globally uniform approximations for ruin probabilities of a nonstandard bidimensional risk model with subexponential claims

Consider a nonstandard continuous-time bidimensional risk model with constant force of interest,in which the two classes of claims with subexponential distributions satisfy a general dependence structure and each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is arbitrarily dependent.Under some mild conditions,we achieve a locally uniform approximation of the finite-time ruin probability for all time horizon within a finite interval.If we further assume that each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is negative quadrant dependent and the two classes of claims are consistently-varying-tailed,it shows that the above obtained approximation is also globally uniform for all time horizon within an infinite interval.

Risk of cardiovascular death in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma based on the Fine-Gray model

BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is one of the most common types of cancers worldwide,ranking fifth among men and seventh among women,resulting in more than 7 million deaths annually.With the development of medical tech-nology,the 5-year survival rate of HCC patients can be increased to 70%.How-ever,HCC patients are often at increased risk of cardiovascular disease(CVD)death due to exposure to potentially cardiotoxic treatments compared with non-HCC patients.Moreover,CVD and cancer have become major disease burdens worldwide.Thus,further research is needed to lessen the risk of CVD death in HCC patient survivors.METHODS This study was conducted on the basis of the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database and included HCC patients with a diagnosis period from 2010 to 2015.The independent risk factors were identified using the Fine-Gray model.A nomograph was constructed to predict the CVM in HCC patients.The nomograph performance was measured using Harrell’s concordance index(C-index),calibration curve,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and area under the ROC curve(AUC)value.Moreover,the net benefit was estimated via decision curve analysis(DCA).RESULTS The study included 21545 HCC patients,of whom 619 died of CVD.Age(<60)[1.981(1.573-2.496),P<0.001],marital status(married)[unmarried:1.370(1.076-1.745),P=0.011],alpha fetoprotein(normal)[0.778(0.640-0.946),P=0.012],tumor size(≤2 cm)[(2,5]cm:1.420(1.060-1.903),P=0.019;>5 cm:2.090(1.543-2.830),P<0.001],surgery(no)[0.376(0.297-0.476),P<0.001],and chemotherapy(none/unknown)[0.578(0.472-0.709),P<0.001]were independent risk factors for CVD death in HCC patients.The discrimination and calibration of the nomograph were better.The C-index values for the training and validation sets were 0.736 and 0.665,respectively.The AUC values of the ROC curves at 2,4,and 6 years were 0.702,0.725,0.740 in the training set and 0.697,0.710,0.744 in the validation set,respectively.The calibration curves showed that the predicted probab-ilities of the CVM prediction model in the training set vs the validation set were largely consistent with the actual probabilities.DCA demonstrated that the prediction model has a high net benefit.CONCLUSION Risk factors for CVD death in HCC patients were investigated for the first time.The nomograph served as an important reference tool for relevant clinical management decisions.

Risk factors and risk prediction model for mucocutaneous separation in enterostomy patients:A single center experience

BACKGROUND Mucocutaneous separation(MCS)is a common postoperative complication in enterostomy patients,potentially leading to significant morbidity.Early identification of risk factors is crucial for preventing this condition.However,predictive models for MCS remain underdeveloped.AIM To construct a risk prediction model for MCS in enterostomy patients and assess its clinical predictive accuracy.METHODS A total of 492 patients who underwent enterostomy from January 2019 to March 2023 were included in the study.Patients were divided into two groups,the MCS group(n=110),and the non-MCS(n=382)based on the occurrence of MCS within the first 3 weeks after surgery.Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the independent predictive factors of MCS and the model constructed.Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to assess the model’s performance.RESULTS The postoperative MCS incidence rate was 22.4%.Suture dislodgement(P<0.0001),serum albumin level(P<0.0001),body mass index(BMI)(P=0.0006),hemoglobin level(P=0.0409),intestinal rapture(P=0.0043),incision infection(P<0.0001),neoadjuvant therapy(P=0.0432),stoma site(P=0.0028)and elevated intra-abdominal pressure(P=0.0395)were potential predictive factors of MCS.Suture dislodgement[P<0.0001,OR:28.007595%CI:(11.0901-82.1751)],serum albumin level(P=0.0008,OR:0.3504,95%CI:[0.1902-0.6485]),BMI[P=0.0045,OR:2.1361,95%CI:(1.2660-3.6235)],hemoglobin level[P=0.0269,OR:0.5164,95%CI:(0.2881-0.9324)],intestinal rapture[P=0.0351,OR:3.0694,95%CI:(1.0482-8.5558)],incision infection[P=0.0179,OR:0.2885,95%CI:(0.0950-0.7624)]and neoadjuvant therapy[P=0.0112,OR:1.9769,95%CI:(1.1718-3.3690)]were independent predictive factors and included in the model.The model had an area under the curve of 0.827 and good clinical utility on decision curve analysis.CONCLUSION The mucocutaneous separation prediction model constructed in this study has good predictive performance and can provide a reference for early warning of mucocutaneous separation in enterostomy patients.

Analysis of risk factors of suicidal ideation in adolescent patients with depression and construction of prediction model

BACKGROUND Major depressive disorder is a common mental illness among adolescents and is the largest disease burden in this age group.Most adolescent patients with depression have suicidal ideation(SI);however,few studies have focused on the factors related to SI,and effective predictive models are lacking.AIM To construct a risk prediction model for SI in adolescent depression and provide a reference assessment tool for prevention.METHODS The data of 150 adolescent patients with depression at the First People's Hospital of Lianyungang from June 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Based on whether or not they had SI,they were divided into a SI group(n=91)and a non-SI group(n=59).The general data and laboratory indices of the two groups were compared.Logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing SI in adolescent patients with depression,a nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the analysis results,and internal evaluation was performed.Receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model’s efficacy,and the clinical application value was evaluated using decision curve analysis(DCA).RESULTS There were differences in trauma history,triggers,serum ferritin levels(SF),highsensitivity C-reactive protein levels(hs-CRP),and high-density lipoprotein(HDLC)levels between the two groups(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that trauma history,predisposing factors,SF,hs-CRP,and HDL-C were factors influencing SI in adolescent patients with depression.The area under the curve of the nomogram prediction model was 0.831(95%CI:0.763–0.899),sensitivity was 0.912,and specificity was 0.678.The higher net benefit of the DCA and the average absolute error of the calibration curve were 0.043,indicating that the model had a good fit.CONCLUSION The nomogram prediction model based on trauma history,triggers,ferritin,serum hs-CRP,and HDL-C levels can effectively predict the risk of SI in adolescent patients with depression.

Identification of risk factors and construction of a nomogram predictive model for post-stroke infection in patients with acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND Post-stroke infection is the most common complication of stroke and poses a huge threat to patients.In addition to prolonging the hospitalization time and increasing the medical burden,post-stroke infection also significantly increases the risk of disease and death.Clarifying the risk factors for post-stroke infection in patients with acute ischemic stroke(AIS)is of great significance.It can guide clinical practice to perform corresponding prevention and control work early,minimizing the risk of stroke-related infections and ensuring favorable disease outcomes.AIM To explore the risk factors for post-stroke infection in patients with AIS and to construct a nomogram predictive model.METHODS The clinical data of 206 patients with AIS admitted to our hospital between April 2020 and April 2023 were retrospectively collected.Baseline data and post-stroke infection status of all study subjects were assessed,and the risk factors for poststroke infection in patients with AIS were analyzed.RESULTS Totally,48 patients with AIS developed stroke,with an infection rate of 23.3%.Age,diabetes,disturbance of consciousness,high National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale(NIHSS)score at admission,invasive operation,and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)were risk factors for post-stroke infection in patients with AIS(P<0.05).A nomogram prediction model was constructed with a C-index of 0.891,reflecting the good potential clinical efficacy of the nomogram prediction model.The calibration curve also showed good consistency between the actual observations and nomogram predictions.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.891(95%confidence interval:0.839–0.942),showing predictive value for post-stroke infection.When the optimal cutoff value was selected,the sensitivity and specificity were 87.5%and 79.7%,respectively.CONCLUSION Age,diabetes,disturbance of consciousness,NIHSS score at admission,invasive surgery,and COPD are risk factors for post-stroke infection following AIS.The nomogram prediction model established based on these factors exhibits high discrimination and accuracy.

Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Purpose-In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights,subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process,this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control(CTC)system risk assessment method.Design/methodologylapproach-First,system-theoretic process analysis(STPA)is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis.Then,to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(FDEMATEL)and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight,relative weight and objective weight of each index.These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index.To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character(NC)of the cloud model for each index.The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system.This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment.The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud.Finally,this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.Findings-The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well.The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/value-This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems,which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment,achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems.It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.

Risk factors and survival prediction model establishment for prognosis in patients with radical resection of gallbladder cancer

BACKGROUND Gallbladder cancer(GBC)is the most common malignant tumor of the biliary system,and is often undetected until advanced stages,making curative surgery unfeasible for many patients.Curative surgery remains the only option for long-term survival.Accurate postsurgical prognosis is crucial for effective treatment planning.tumor-node-metastasis staging,which focuses on tumor infiltration,lymph node metastasis,and distant metastasis,limits the accuracy of prognosis.Nomograms offer a more comprehensive and personalized approach by visually analyzing a broader range of prognostic factors,enhancing the precision of treatment planning for patients with GBC.AIM A retrospective study analyzed the clinical and pathological data of 93 patients who underwent radical surgery for GBC at Peking University People's Hospital from January 2015 to December 2020.Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate the 1-,2-and 3-year survival rates.The log-rank test was used to evaluate factors impacting prognosis,with survival curves plotted for significant variables.Single-factor analysis revealed statistically significant differences,and multivariate Cox regression identified independent prognostic factors.A nomogram was developed and validated with receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves.Among 93 patients who underwent radical surgery for GBC,30 patients survived,accounting for 32.26%of the sample,with a median survival time of 38 months.The 1-year,2-year,and 3-year survival rates were 83.87%,68.82%,and 53.57%,respectively.Univariate analysis revealed that carbohydrate antigen 19-9 expre-ssion,T stage,lymph node metastasis,histological differentiation,surgical margins,and invasion of the liver,ex-trahepatic bile duct,nerves,and vessels(P≤0.001)significantly impacted patient prognosis after curative surgery.Multivariate Cox regression identified lymph node metastasis(P=0.03),histological differentiation(P<0.05),nerve invasion(P=0.036),and extrahepatic bile duct invasion(P=0.014)as independent risk factors.A nomogram model with a concordance index of 0.838 was developed.Internal validation confirmed the model's consistency in predicting the 1-year,2-year,and 3-year survival rates.CONCLUSION Lymph node metastasis,tumor differentiation,extrahepatic bile duct invasion,and perineural invasion are independent risk factors.A nomogram based on these factors can be used to personalize and improve treatment strategies.

Integrated Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: A Comprehensive Comparative Study

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) pose a significant global health challenge, necessitating accurate risk prediction for effective preventive measures. This comprehensive comparative study explores the performance of traditional Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) models in predicting CVD risk, utilizing a meticulously curated dataset derived from health records. Rigorous preprocessing, including normalization and outlier removal, enhances model robustness. Diverse ML models (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting) are compared with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network for DL. Evaluation metrics include accuracy, ROC AUC, computation time, and memory usage. Results identify the Gradient Boosting Classifier and LSTM as top performers, demonstrating high accuracy and ROC AUC scores. Comparative analyses highlight model strengths and limitations, contributing valuable insights for optimizing predictive strategies. This study advances predictive analytics for cardiovascular health, with implications for personalized medicine. The findings underscore the versatility of intelligent systems in addressing health challenges, emphasizing the broader applications of ML and DL in disease identification beyond cardiovascular health.

Development of a machine learning-based model for predicting risk of early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND Surgical resection is the primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,studies indicate that nearly 70%of patients experience HCC recurrence within five years following hepatectomy.The earlier the recurrence,the worse the prognosis.Current studies on postoperative recurrence primarily rely on postoperative pathology and patient clinical data,which are lagging.Hence,developing a new pre-operative prediction model for postoperative recurrence is crucial for guiding individualized treatment of HCC patients and enhancing their prognosis.AIM To identify key variables in pre-operative clinical and imaging data using machine learning algorithms to construct multiple risk prediction models for early postoperative recurrence of HCC.METHODS The demographic and clinical data of 371 HCC patients were collected for this retrospective study.These data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 8:2.The training set was analyzed,and key feature variables with predictive value for early HCC recurrence were selected to construct six different machine learning prediction models.Each model was evaluated,and the bestperforming model was selected for interpreting the importance of each variable.Finally,an online calculator based on the model was generated for daily clinical practice.RESULTS Following machine learning analysis,eight key feature variables(age,intratumoral arteries,alpha-fetoprotein,preoperative blood glucose,number of tumors,glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio,liver cirrhosis,and pre-operative platelets)were selected to construct six different prediction models.The XGBoost model outperformed other models,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training,validation,and test datasets being 0.993(95%confidence interval:0.982-1.000),0.734(0.601-0.867),and 0.706(0.585-0.827),respectively.Calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated that the XGBoost model also had good predictive performance and clinical application value.CONCLUSION The XGBoost model exhibits superior performance and is a reliable tool for predicting early postoperative HCC recurrence.This model may guide surgical strategies and postoperative individualized medicine.

Establishment and evaluation of a risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND Gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM)is a condition characterized by high blood sugar levels during pregnancy.The prevalence of GDM is on the rise globally,and this trend is particularly evident in China,which has emerged as a significant issue impacting the well-being of expectant mothers and their fetuses.Identifying and addressing GDM in a timely manner is crucial for maintaining the health of both expectant mothers and their developing fetuses.Therefore,this study aims to establish a risk prediction model for GDM and explore the effects of serum ferritin,blood glucose,and body mass index(BMI)on the occurrence of GDM.AIM To develop a risk prediction model to analyze factors leading to GDM,and evaluate its efficiency for early prevention.METHODS The clinical data of 406 pregnant women who underwent routine prenatal examination in Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital from April 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.According to whether GDM occurred,they were divided into two groups to analyze the related factors affecting GDM.Then,according to the weight of the relevant risk factors,the training set and the verification set were divided at a ratio of 7:3.Subsequently,a risk prediction model was established using logistic regression and random forest models,and the model was evaluated and verified.RESULTS Pre-pregnancy BMI,previous history of GDM or macrosomia,hypertension,hemoglobin(Hb)level,triglyceride level,family history of diabetes,serum ferritin,and fasting blood glucose levels during early pregnancy were determined.These factors were found to have a significant impact on the development of GDM(P<0.05).According to the nomogram model’s prediction of GDM in pregnancy,the area under the curve(AUC)was determined to be 0.883[95%confidence interval(CI):0.846-0.921],and the sensitivity and specificity were 74.1%and 87.6%,respectively.The top five variables in the random forest model for predicting the occurrence of GDM were serum ferritin,fasting blood glucose in early pregnancy,pre-pregnancy BMI,Hb level and triglyceride level.The random forest model achieved an AUC of 0.950(95%CI:0.927-0.973),the sensitivity was 84.8%,and the specificity was 91.4%.The Delong test showed that the AUC value of the random forest model was higher than that of the decision tree model(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The random forest model is superior to the nomogram model in predicting the risk of GDM.This method is helpful for early diagnosis and appropriate intervention of GDM.

A Nomogram Model for Prediction of Mortality Risk of Patients with Dangerous Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding:A Two-center Retrospective Study

Objective:This study aimed to establish a nomogram model to predict the mortality risk of patients with dangerous upper gastrointestinal bleeding(DUGIB),and identify high-risk patients who require emergent therapy.Methods:From January 2020 to April 2022,the clinical data of 256 DUGIB patients who received treatments in the intensive care unit(ICU)were retrospectively collected from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University(n=179)and the Eastern Campus of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University(n=77).The 179 patients were treated as the training cohort,and 77 patients as the validation cohort.Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the independent risk factors,and R packages were used to construct the nomogram model.The prediction accuracy and identification ability were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,C index and calibration curve.The nomogram model was also simultaneously externally validated.Decision curve analysis(DCA)was then used to demonstrate the clinical value of the model.Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that hematemesis,urea nitrogen level,emergency endoscopy,AIMS65,Glasgow Blatchford score and Rockall score were all independent risk factors for DUGIB.The ROC curve analysis indicated the area under curve(AUC)of the training cohort was 0.980(95%CI:0.962-0.997),while the AUC of the validation cohort was 0.790(95%CI:0.685-0.895).The calibration curves were tested for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit for both training and validation cohorts(P=0.778,P=0.516).Conclusion:The developed nomogram is an effective tool for risk stratification,early identification and intervention for DUGIB patients.

Risk factors and prediction model for inpatient surgical site infection after elective abdominal surgery

BACKGROUND Surgical site infections(SSIs) are the commonest healthcare-associated infection. In addition to increasing mortality, it also lengthens the hospital stay and raises healthcare expenses. SSIs are challenging to predict, with most models having poor predictability. Therefore, we developed a prediction model for SSI after elective abdominal surgery by identifying risk factors.AIM To analyse the data on inpatients undergoing elective abdominal surgery to identify risk factors and develop predictive models that will help clinicians assess patients preoperatively.METHODS We retrospectively analysed the inpatient records of Shaanxi Provincial People’s Hospital from January 1, 2018 to January 1, 2021. We included the demographic data of the patients and their haematological test results in our analysis. The attending physicians provided the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002(NRS 2002)scores. The surgeons and anaesthesiologists manually calculated the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance(NNIS) scores. Inpatient SSI risk factors were evaluated using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. Nomograms were used in the predictive models. The receiver operating characteristic and area under the curve values were used to measure the specificity and accuracy of the model.RESULTS A total of 3018 patients met the inclusion criteria. The surgical sites included the uterus(42.2%), the liver(27.6%), the gastrointestinal tract(19.1%), the appendix(5.9%), the kidney(3.7%), and the groin area(1.4%). SSI occurred in 5% of the patients(n = 150). The risk factors associated with SSI were as follows: Age;gender;marital status;place of residence;history of diabetes;surgical season;surgical site;NRS 2002 score;preoperative white blood cell, procalcitonin(PCT), albumin, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL) levels;preoperative antibiotic use;anaesthesia method;incision grade;NNIS score;intraoperative blood loss;intraoperative drainage tube placement;surgical operation items. Multivariate logistic regression revealed the following independent risk factors: A history of diabetes [odds ratio(OR) = 5.698, 95% confidence interval(CI): 3.305-9.825, P = 0.001], antibiotic use(OR = 14.977, 95%CI: 2.865-78.299, P = 0.001), an NRS 2002 score of ≥ 3(OR = 2.426, 95%CI: 1.199-4.909, P = 0.014), general anaesthesia(OR = 3.334, 95%CI: 1.134-9.806, P = 0.029), an NNIS score of ≥ 2(OR = 2.362, 95%CI: 1.019-5.476, P = 0.045), PCT ≥ 0.05 μg/L(OR = 1.687, 95%CI: 1.056-2.695, P = 0.029), LDL < 3.37 mmol/L(OR = 1.719, 95%CI: 1.039-2.842, P = 0.035), intraoperative blood loss ≥ 200 mL(OR = 29.026, 95%CI: 13.751-61.266, P < 0.001), surgical season(P < 0.05), surgical site(P < 0.05), and incision grade I or Ⅲ(P < 0.05). The overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the predictive model was 0.926, which is significantly higher than the NNIS score(0.662).CONCLUSION The patient’s condition and haematological test indicators form the bases of our prediction model. It is a novel, efficient, and highly accurate predictive model for preventing postoperative SSI, thereby improving the prognosis in patients undergoing abdominal surgery.

Risk Assessment of Deep-Water Horizontal X-Tree Installation

Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.

Discrete-time movement model of a group of trains on a rail line with stochastic disturbance

This paper presents a discrete-time model to describe the movements of a group of trains, in which some operational strategies, including traction operation, braking operation and impact of stochastic disturbance, are defined. To show the dynamic characteristics of train traffic flow with stochastic disturbance, some numerical experiments on a railway line are simulated. The computational results show that the discrete-time movement model can well describe the movements of trains on a rail line with the moving-block signalling system. Comparing with the results of no disturbance, it finds that the traffic capacity of the rail line will decrease with the influence of stochastic disturbance. Additionally, the delays incurred by stochastic disturbance can be propagated to the subsequent trains, and then prolong their traversing time on the rail line. It can provide auxiliary information for rescheduling trains When the stochastic disturbance occurs on the railway.

Development and validation of a new prognostic model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in intensive care unit

BACKGROUND Cirrhotic patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF)in the intensive care unit(ICU)have a poor but variable prognoses.Accurate prognosis evaluation can guide the rational management of patients with ACLF.However,existing prognostic scores for ACLF in the ICU environment lack sufficient accuracy.AIM To develop a new prognostic model for patients with ACLF in ICU.METHODS Data from 938 ACLF patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care(MIMIC)database were used to develop a new prognostic model(MIMIC ACLF)for ACLF.Discrimination,calibration and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA),respectively.MIMIC ACLF was then externally validated in a multiple-center cohort,the Electronic Intensive Care Collaborative Research Database and a single-center cohort from the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University in China.RESULTS The MIMIC ACLF score was determined using nine variables:ln(age)×2.2+ln(white blood cell count)×0.22-ln(mean arterial pressure)×2.7+respiratory failure×0.6+renal failure×0.51+cerebral failure×0.31+ln(total bilirubin)×0.44+ln(internationalized normal ratio)×0.59+ln(serum potassium)×0.59.In MIMIC cohort,the AUROC(0.81/0.79)for MIMIC ACLF for 28/90-day ACLF mortality were significantly greater than those of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF(0.76/0.74),Model for End-stage Liver Disease(MELD;0.73/0.71)and MELD-Na(0.72/0.70)(all P<0.001).The consistency between actual and predicted 28/90-day survival rates of patients according to MIMIC ACLF score was excellent and superior to that of existing scores.The net benefit of MIMIC ACLF was greater than that achieved using existing scores within the 50%threshold probability.The superior predictive accuracy and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were validated in the external cohorts.CONCLUSION We developed and validated a new prognostic model with satisfactory accuracy for cirrhotic patients with ACLF hospitalized in the ICU.The model-based risk stratification and online calculator might facilitate the rational management of patients with ACLF.

Machine Learning-Based Decision-Making Mechanism for Risk Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease

Cardiovascular disease(CVD)has gradually become one of the main causes of harm to the life and health of residents.Exploring the influencing factors and risk assessment methods of CVD has become a general trend.In this paper,a machine learning-based decision-making mechanism for risk assessment of CVD is designed.In this mechanism,the logistics regression analysismethod and factor analysismodel are used to select age,obesity degree,blood pressure,blood fat,blood sugar,smoking status,drinking status,and exercise status as the main pathogenic factors of CVD,and an index systemof risk assessment for CVD is established.Then,a two-stage model combining K-means cluster analysis and random forest(RF)is proposed to evaluate and predict the risk of CVD,and the predicted results are compared with the methods of Bayesian discrimination,K-means cluster analysis and RF.The results show that thepredictioneffect of theproposedtwo-stagemodel is better than that of the comparedmethods.Moreover,several suggestions for the government,the medical industry and the public are provided based on the research results.

A reliability-oriented genetic algorithm-levenberg marquardt model for leak risk assessment based on time-frequency features

Since leaks in high-pressure pipelines transporting crude oil can cause severe economic losses,a reliable leak risk assessment can assist in developing an effective pipeline maintenance plan and avoiding unexpected incidents.The fast and accurate leak detection methods are essential for maintaining pipeline safety in pipeline reliability engineering.Current oil pipeline leakage signals are insufficient for feature extraction,while the training time for traditional leakage prediction models is too long.A new leak detection method is proposed based on time-frequency features and the Genetic Algorithm-Levenberg Marquardt(GA-LM)classification model for predicting the leakage status of oil pipelines.The signal that has been processed is transformed to the time and frequency domain,allowing full expression of the original signal.The traditional Back Propagation(BP)neural network is optimized by the Genetic Algorithm(GA)and Levenberg Marquardt(LM)algorithms.The results show that the recognition effect of a combined feature parameter is superior to that of a single feature parameter.The Accuracy,Precision,Recall,and F1score of the GA-LM model is 95%,93.5%,96.7%,and 95.1%,respectively,which proves that the GA-LM model has a good predictive effect and excellent stability for positive and negative samples.The proposed GA-LM model can obviously reduce training time and improve recognition efficiency.In addition,considering that a large number of samples are required for model training,a wavelet threshold method is proposed to generate sample data with higher reliability.The research results can provide an effective theoretical and technical reference for the leakage risk assessment of the actual oil pipelines.