Distributed Estimator of Market Beta under Extreme Conditions

Market beta is a measure of the volatility or systematic risk of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole. This paper considers the distributed estimation of market beta in the case of massive data, and obtains the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator. Further, simulations show the finite sample properties of this estimator.

DISTRIBUTED MONITORING SYSTEM RELIABILITY ESTIMATION WITH CONSIDERATION OF STATISTICAL UNCERTAINTY

Taking into account the whole system structure and the component reliability estimation uncertainty, a system reliability estimation method based on probability and statistical theory for distributed monitoring systems is presented. The variance and confidence intervals of the system reliability estimation are obtained by expressing system reliability as a linear sum of products of higher order moments of component reliability estimates when the number of component or system survivals obeys binomial distribution. The eigenfunction of binomial distribution is used to determine the moments of component reliability estimates, and a symbolic matrix which can facilitate the search of explicit system reliability estimates is proposed. Furthermore, a case of application is used to illustrate the procedure, and with the help of this example, various issues such as the applicability of this estimation model, and measures to improve system reliability of monitoring systems are discussed.

Stability analysis of CO_(2)gas shielded welding short-circuit transition process based on GMAW dynamic model

Base on the arc phase and short-circuit phase and their relationship, the paper considers the changes of the extension of wire, the arc length, liquid bridge resistance and mass of liquid bridge, combines the improved “mass-spring” model with the loop model of welding power system, puts forward the critical judgment condition of droplet transition, and establishes a more accurate dynamic model for describing the short-circuit transition process. The dynamic changes of short-circuit transfer frequency, welding current and voltage, contact droplet and residual droplet equivalent radius and droplet equivalent radius at different wire feeding speeds were calculated and analyzed, and compared with the experimental results. It shows that the fluctuation of droplet displacement, velocity and wire extension length at the optimal arc starting point is the smallest. The smaller the initial liquid bridge curvature radius is, the better the stability of short-circuit transfer is.

Generation of irregular particle packing with prescribed statistical distribution, spatial arrangement, and volume fraction

A method for packing irregular particles with a prescribed volume fraction is proposed.Furthermore,the generated granular material adheres to the prescribed statistical distribution and satisfies the desired complex spatial arrangement.First,the irregular geometries of the realistic particles were obtained from the original particle images.Second,the Minkowski sum was used to check the overlap between irregular particles and place an irregular particle in contact with other particles.Third,the optimised advance front method(OAFM)generated irregular particle packing with the prescribed statistical dis-tribution and volume fraction based on the Minkowski sum.Moreover,the signed distance function was introduced to pack the particles in accordance with the desired spatial arrangement.Finally,seven biaxial tests were performed using the UDEC software,which demonstrated the accuracy and potential usefulness of the proposed method.It can model granular material efficiently and reflect the meso-structural characteristics of complex granular materials.This method has a wide range of applications where discrete modelling of granular media is necessary.

Appropriateness of Reduced Modified Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution Function for Predicting Gold Production in Ghana

Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.

Appropriateness of Reduced Modified Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution Function for Predicting Gold Production in Ghana

Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.

Nonequilibrium Statistical Nature of Intergranular Brittle Fracture in Polycrystal

The brittle fracture probability and reliability are obtained in terms of dislocation mechanism of microcrack evolution. The statistical distribution functions and statistical deviations of elongation, strength, plastic work, crack extension force, fracture foughness, critical and crack length, can be derived in a unified fashion.

Rock burst proneness prediction by acoustic emission test during rock deformation

Rock burst is a severe disaster in mining and underground engineering,and it is important to predict the rock burst risk for minimizing the loss during the constructing process.The rock burst proneness was connected with the acoustic emission(AE) parameter in this work,which contributes to predicting the rock burst risk using AE technique.Primarily,a rock burst proneness index is proposed,and it just depends on the heterogeneous degree of rock material.Then,the quantificational formula between the value of rock burst proneness index and the accumulative AE counts in rock sample under uniaxial compression with axial strain increases is developed.Finally,three kinds of rock samples,i.e.,granite,limestone and sandstone are tested about variation of the accumulative AE counts under uniaxial compression,and the test data are fitted well with the theoretic formula.

Statistical Distributions of Ambient Air Pollutants in Shanghai, China

Objective To determine the best statistical distribution of concentration data of major air pollutants in Shanghai. Methods Four types of theoretic distributions (lognormal, gamma, Pearson V and extreme value) were chosen to fit daily average concentration data of PM10, SO2 and NO2 from June 1, 2000 to May 31, 2003 in Shanghai by using the maximum likelihood method. The fit results were evaluated by Chi-square test. Results The best-fit distributions for PM10,SO2 and NO2 concentrations in Shanghai were lognormal, Pearson V, and extreme value distributions, respectively. Conclusion The results can be further applied to local air pollution prediction and control, e.g., the probabilities exceeding the air quality standard and emission source reduction of air pollutant concentration to meet the standard.

Phenomenological Anisotropic Study of Surface Finish in Pack Rolling

A phenomenological anisotropic model has been presented for the surface roughness modeling of pack rolling. The model is an assembly of grains in different orientations and sizes. The grain size is assumed to be in log-normal distribution. To model the macro anisotropic mechanical behavior of the grains induced by the slip deformation, the grains are assumed as isolated anisotropic units. The units have different mechanic behavior, and depend on the crystallographic orientations and the external loading as well as the interaction of the adjunctive grains. In the paper, the material properties of the grains are assumed as uniform distributions. The roughness of the contact surfaces depends on the distribution types and the scatters of the distributions. It is found that the initial roughness of the contact surfaces has a little influence on the surface roughness when the rolling deformation is large. The comparison between the phenomenological model and crystallographic model shows that the phenomenological model can also give out a reasonable result, while it only takes much less CPU time. The agreement between the single sheet model and the pack rolling model shows that in a certain degree the pack rolling model can be replaced by the single sheet model to decrease the CPU time.

Application of Statistical Distribution of PM_(10) Concentration in Air Quality Management in 5 Representative Cities of China

Objective To estimate the frequency of daily average PM10 concentrations exceeding the air quality standard （AQS） and the reduction of particulate matter emission to meet the AQS from the statistical properties （probability density functions） of air pollutant concentration. Methods The daily PM10 average concentration in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Xi＇an was measured from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008. The PM10 concentration distribution was simulated by using the Iognormal, Weibull and Gamma distributions and the best statistical distribution of PM10 concentration in the 5 cities was detected using to the maximum likelihood method. Results The daily PM10 average concentration in the 5 cities was fitted using the Iognormal distribution. The exceeding duration was predicted, and the estimated PMlo emission source reductions in the 5 cities need to be 56.58%, 93.40%, 80.17%, 82.40%, and 79.80%, respectively to meet the AO, S. Conclusion Air pollutant concentration can be predicted by using the PM10 concentration distribution, which can be further applied in air quality management and related policy making.

EVOLUTION OF STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF PIT GEOMETRIC PARAMETERS UNDER FATIGUE LOADING

The pits and pit-associated fatigue crack initiation of the offshore structure steel A537cLl have been investigated under salt water spray condition.The tests were interrupted on sched- ule to make plastic replica of corroded specimen surface on which many randomly distributed pits can be found.The development of the geometric parameters of pits was obtained and the statistical distributions of these parameters were determined.Instead of depth,the ratio of depth to width is the most dominant parameter in relation to crack initiation.Also,the pitting was enhanced when low frequency or high stress range was applied and although stress range has no effect on the nucleation of pits,it can accelerate the initiation of cracks from pits.

Distribution and segregation of dissolved elements in pipeline slab

The chemical composition in a cross section of a high grade pipeline slab was measured point by point （in a scale of 1 μm） using original position statistic distribution analysis （OPA）. The result indicated that negative segregation strips of Si, Mn, Mo, Ni, Cr, Nb, Cu, Ti, and V exist in the two sides 24 mm away from the central line, with a width of 8-12 mm, Negative segregation inside the central line is more severe than that outside the central line, and the highest positive segregation of the elements appears closely by the inner sides of the negative segregation strips. No obvious negative segregation strip of S and P is found. Segregation of the elements in the central area is higher than that in the outer and inner arc areas. The segregation of C, Ti, S, and P is high and that of Cr, Cu, Si, and Mn is low in the slab.

A statistical distribution of quad-pol X-band sea clutter time series acquired at a grazing angle

Although the complex Wishart distribution has been widely used to analyze the statistic properties of quad-pol SAR spatial data, the applicability of this complex distribution to the time series of sea clutter is rarely discussed.The measured data of the quad-pol X-band marine radar demonstrate that the time series of the sea echoes are also satisfied the circular Gaussian distributions if the low intensity signals, which are mainly dominated by a radar noise, in the shadow regions of the large-scale waves are removed. On the basis of this fact, the probability density functions（PDFs） of the intensity as well as the phase, the real and the imaginary parts of the sea echoes obtained by the marine radar have been derived, and the theoretical models are all expressed in closed forms. In order to validate the theoretical results, the PDFs are compared with the experimental data collected by the Mc Master IPIX radar. And the comparisons show that the PDF models are in good agreement with the experimental data.

Effect of solid particles on gear tooth failure

The failure of spur gears operating in highly contaminated media was studied. In fact, the effect of the presence of solid particles in gear mechanisms during surface tooth contact was observed. It is shown that the solid contaminants lead to significant wear in the first few operating cycles, in zones with a high rate of sliding. The scanning electron microscopy(SEM) images show clearly that the wear is more significant for a dry contact in the presence of larger size particles. Indeed, the presence of contaminants leads to an increase in friction, and therefore raises the temperature and the vibration levels when the operation of gear mechanism becomes very severe especially for a dry contact under the effect of larger size particles. On the other hand, we have tried to obtain a better understanding and a good description of wear debris distributions in gear mechanisms by using unimodal, single distribution models(Weibull and three-parameter Weibull).

PATH INTEGRAL SOLUTION OF NONLINEAR DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR OF STRUCTURE UNDER WIND EXCITATION

A numerical scheme for the nonlinear behavior of structure under wind excitation is investigated. With the white noise filter of turbulent-wind fluctuations, the nonlinear motion equation of structures subjected to wind load was modeled as the Ito＇ s stochastic differential equation. The state vector associated with such a model is a diffusion process. A continuous linearization strategy in the time-domain was adopted. Based on the solution series of its stochastic linearization equations, the formal probabilistic density of the structure response was developed by the path integral technique. It is shown by the numerical example of a guyed mast that compared with the frequency-domain method and the time-domain nonlinear analysis, the proposed approach is highlighted by high accuracy and effectiveness. The influence of the structure non-linearity on the dynamic reliability assessment is also analyzed in the example.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of phytoplankton diversity and its relation to water environmental factors in the southern waters of Miaodao Archipelago,China

To study the water quality influenced by the anthropogenic activities and its impact on the phytoplankton diversity in the surface waters of Miaodao Archipelago, the spatiotemporal variations in phytoplankton communities and the environmental properties of the surface waters surrounding the Five Southern Islands of Miaodao Archipelago were investigated, based on seasonal field survey conducted from November 2012 to August 2013. During the survey, a total of 109 phytoplankton species from 3 groups were identified in the southern waters of Miaodao Archipelago, of which 77 were diatoms, 29 were dinoflagellates, and 3 were chrysophytes. Species number was higher in winter（73）, moderate in autumn（70）, but lower in summer（31） and spring（27）. The species richness index in autumn（5.92） and winter（4.28） was higher than that in summer（2.83） and spring（1.41）.The Shannon-Wiener diversity index was high in autumn（2.82）, followed by winter（1.99） and summer（1.92）, and low in spring（0.07）. The species evenness index in autumn（0.46） and summer（0.39） was higher than that in winter（0.32） and spring（0.02）. On the basis of principal component analysis（PCA） and redundancy analysis（RDA）, we found that dissolved inorganic nitrogen（DIN） and chemical oxygen demand（COD） in spring, COD in summer, p H in autumn, and salinity and oil pollutant in winter, respectively, showed the strongest association with the distribution of phytoplankton diversity. The spatial heterogeneity of the southern waters of Miaodao Archipelago was quite obvious, and three zones, i.e., northeastern, southwestern and inter-island water area, were identified by cluster analysis（CA） based on key environmental variables.

Wind Wave Characteristics and Engineering Environment of the South China Sea

Wave simulation was conducted for the period 1976 to 2005 in the South China Sea （SCS） using the wave model, WAVEWATCH-III. Wave characteristics and engineering environment were studied in the region. The wind input data are from the objective reanalysis wind datasets, which assimilate meteorological data from several sources. Comparisons of significant wave heights between simulation and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter and buoy data show a good agreement in general. By statistical analysis, the wave characteristics, such as significant wave heights, dominant wave directions, and their seasonal variations, were discussed. The largest significant wave heights are found in winter and the smallest in spring. The annual mean dominant wave direction is northeast （NE） along the southwest （SW）-NE axis, east northeast in the northwest （NW） part of SCS, and north northeast in the southeast （SE） part of SCS. The joint distributions of wave heights and wave periods （directions） were studied. The results show a single peak pattern for joint significant wave heights and periods, and a double peak pattern for joint significant wave heights and mean directions. Furthermore, the main wave extreme parameters and directional extreme values, particularly for the 100-year return period, were also investigated. The main extreme values of significant wave heights are larger in the northern part of SCS than in the south- ern part, with the maximum value occurring to the southeast of Hainan Island. The direction of large directional extreme Hs values is focus in E in the northem and middle sea areas of SCS, while the direction of those is focus in N in the southeast sea areas of SCS.

Droplets diameter distribution using maximum entropy formulation combined with a new energy-based sub-model

The maximum entropy principle(MEP) is one of the first methods which have been used to predict droplet size and velocity distributions of liquid sprays. This method needs a mean droplets diameter as an input to predict the droplet size distribution. This paper presents a new sub-model based on the deterministic aspects of liquid atomization process independent of the experimental data to provide the mean droplets diameter for using in the maximum entropy formulation(MEF). For this purpose, a theoretical model based on the approach of energy conservation law entitled energy-based model(EBM) is presented. Based on this approach, atomization occurs due to the kinetic energy loss. Prediction of the combined model(MEF/EBM) is in good agreement with the available experimental data. The energy-based model can be used as a fast and reliable enough model to obtain a good estimation of the mean droplets diameter of a spray and the combined model(MEF/EBM) can be used to well predict the droplet size distribution at the primary breakup.

Modeling random telegraph signal noise in CMOS image sensor under low light based on binomial distribution

The random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower MOSFET is the principle component of the noise in the CMOS image sensor under low light. In this paper, the physical and statistical model of the random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower based on the binomial distribution is set up. The number of electrons captured or released by the oxide traps in the unit time is described as the random variables which obey the binomial distribution. As a result,the output states and the corresponding probabilities of the first and the second samples of the correlated double sampling circuit are acquired. The standard deviation of the output states after the correlated double sampling circuit can be obtained accordingly. In the simulation section, one hundred thousand samples of the source follower MOSFET have been simulated,and the simulation results show that the proposed model has the similar statistical characteristics with the existing models under the effect of the channel length and the density of the oxide trap. Moreover, the noise histogram of the proposed model has been evaluated at different environmental temperatures.