A Wind Power Prediction Framework for Distributed Power Grids

To reduce carbon emissions,clean energy is being integrated into the power system.Wind power is connected to the grid in a distributed form,but its high variability poses a challenge to grid stability.This article combines wind turbine monitoring data with numerical weather prediction(NWP)data to create a suitable wind power prediction framework for distributed grids.First,high-precision NWP of the turbine range is achieved using weather research and forecasting models(WRF),and Kriging interpolation locates predicted meteorological data at the turbine site.Then,a preliminary predicted power series is obtained based on the fan’s wind speed-power conversion curve,and historical power is reconstructed using variational mode decomposition(VMD)filtering to form input variables in chronological order.Finally,input variables of a single turbine enter the temporal convolutional network(TCN)to complete initial feature extraction,and then integrate the outputs of all TCN layers using Long Short Term Memory Networks(LSTM)to obtain power prediction sequences for all turbine positions.The proposed method was tested on a wind farm connected to a distributed power grid,and the results showed it to be superior to existing typical methods.

Analysis and Power Quality Improvement in Hybrid Distributed Generation System with Utilization of Unified Power Quality Conditioner

This paper presents a comprehensive study that includes the sizing and power flow by series and parallel inverters in a distributed generation system(DGs)that integrates the system of hybrid wind photovoltaic with a unified power quality conditioner(UPQC).In addition to supplying active power to the utility grid,the system of hybrid wind photovoltaic functions as a UPQC,compensating reactive power and suppressing the harmonic load currents.Additionally,the load is supplied with harmonic-free,balanced and regulated output voltages.Since PVWind-UPQC is established on a dual compensation scheme,the series inverter works like a sinusoidal current source,while the parallel inverter works like a sinusoidal voltage source.Consequently,a smooth alteration from interconnected operating modes to island operating modes and vice versa can be achieved without load voltage transients.Since PV-Wind-UPQC inverters handle the energy generated through the hybrid wind photovoltaic system and the energy demanded through the load,the converters should be sized cautiously.A detailed study of the flow of power via the PV-Wind-UPQC is imperative to gain a complete understanding of the system operation and the proper design of the converters.Thus,curves that allow the sizing of the power converters according to the power flow via the converters are presented and discussed.Simulation results are presented to assess both steady state and dynamic performances of the grid connected hybrid system of PV-Wind-UPQC.This investigation is verified by simulating and analyzing the results with Matlab/Simulink.

Wind Potential Modeling at Kanfarandé Site in the Republic of Guinea

The purpose of this work is to assess wind potential on the Kanfarandé site (Guinea). The data used for this research covers a period of 6 years (2018 to 2023) and consists of in situ data (Boké meteorological station) and satellite products via NASA Power Larc. The study is based on sorted hourly data (speed and direction). The treatments focus on the monthly, annual and seasonal average of speeds, by sector and their frequencies as well as the annual available powers. The obtained results made it possible, on the one hand, to assess wind potential and, on the other hand, to highlight the most favorable periods for wind energy exploitation. The analyzes show the months of July and August have the best average wind speeds with 5.01 m/s and 5.34 m/s respectively. Average wind speeds are higher during the day than at night with a peak observed at 6 p.m. The study also shows that the prevailing winds are oriented towards the South-West. The Weibull parameters determined for the site give an average of 4.5 m/s for the scale parameter and for the shape parameter 2.40 corresponding to an average power density of 65 w/m2 with an annual available power of 194.80 W/m2 and an annual available energy of 1706.45 kWh/m2.

Quantitative method for evaluating detailed volatility of wind power at multiple temporal-spatial scales

With the increasing proportion of wind power integration, the volatility of wind power brings huge challenges to the safe and stable operation of the electric power system. At present, the indexes commonly used to evaluate the volatility of wind power only consider its overall characteristics, such as the standard deviation of wind power, the average of power variables, etc., while ignoring the detailed volatility of wind power, that is, the features of the frequency distribution of power variables. However, how to accurately describe the detailed volatility of wind power is the key foundation to reduce its adverse influences. To address this, a quantitative method for evaluating the detailed volatility of wind power at multiple temporal-spatial scales is proposed. First, the volatility indexes which can evaluate the detailed fluctuation characteristics of wind power are presented, including the upper confidence limit, lower confidence limit and confidence interval of power variables under the certain confidence level. Then, the actual wind power data from a location in northern China is used to illustrate the application of the proposed indexes at multiple temporal(year–season–month–day) and spatial scales(wind turbine–wind turbines–wind farm–wind farms) using the calculation time windows of 10 min, 30 min, 1 h, and 4 h. Finally, the relationships between wind power forecasting accuracy and its corresponding detailed volatility are analyzed to further verify the effectiveness of the proposed indexes. The results show that the proposed volatility indexes can effectively characterize the detailed fluctuations of wind power at multiple temporal-spatial scales. It is anticipated that the results of this study will serve as an important reference for the reserve capacity planning and optimization dispatch in the electric power system which with a high proportion of renewable energy.

A Statistical Analysis of Wind Speed and Power Density Based on Weibull and Rayleigh Models of Jumla, Nepal

In the present study, wind speed data of Jumla, Nepal have been statistically analyzed. For this purpose, the daily averaged wind speed data for 10 year period (2004-2014: 2012 excluded) provided by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) was analyzed to estimate wind power density. Wind speed as high as 18 m/s was recorded at height of 10 m. Annual mean wind speed was ascertained to be decreasing from 7.35 m/s in 2004 to 5.13 m/s in 2014 as a consequence of Global Climate Change. This is a subject of concern looking at government’s plan to harness wind energy. Monthly wind speed plot shows that the fastest wind speed is generally in month of June (Monsoon Season) and slowest in December/January (Winter Season). Results presented Weibull distribution to fit measured probability distribution better than the Rayleigh distribution for whole years in High altitude region of Nepal. Average value of wind power density based on mean and root mean cube seed approaches were 131.31 W/m2/year and 184.93 W/m2/year respectively indicating that Jumla stands in class III. Weibull distribution shows a good approximation for estimation of power density with maximum error of 3.68% when root mean cube speed is taken as reference.

Wind Power Potential in Interior Alaska from a Micrometeorological Perspective

The wind power potential in Interior Alaska is evaluated from a micrometeorological perspective. Based on the local balance equation of momentum and the equation of continuity we derive the local balance equation of kinetic energy for macroscopic and turbulent systems, and in a further step, Bernoulli’s equation and integral equations that customarily serve as the key equations in momentum theory and blade-element analysis, where the Lanchester-Betz-Joukowsky limit, Glauert’s optimum actuator disk, and the results of the blade-element analysis by Okulov and Sorensen are exemplarily illustrated. The wind power potential at three different sites in Interior Alaska (Delta Junction, Eva Creek, and Poker Flat) is assessed by considering the results of wind field predictions for the winter period from October 1, 2008, to April 1, 2009 provided by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to avoid time-consuming and expensive tall-tower observations in Interior Alaska which is characterized by a relatively low degree of infrastructure outside of the city of Fairbanks. To predict the average power output we use the Weibull distributions derived from the predicted wind fields for these three different sites and the power curves of five different propeller-type wind turbines with rated powers ranging from 2 MW to 2.5 MW. These power curves are represented by general logistic functions. The predicted power capacity for the Eva Creek site is compared with that of the Eva Creek wind farm established in 2012. The results of our predictions for the winter period 2008/2009 are nearly 20 percent lower than those of the Eva Creek wind farm for the period from January to September 2013.

Analysis on the Characteristics of Wind Power Output in Hainan Power Grid

It is of great importance to study the characteristics of wind power output for the healthy and secure & stable of power grid. Based on the actual operating data, the probability distribution of the power fluctuations of the wind farm in Hainanand the variation of wind power annual, seasonal, daily active output is analyzed. The study showed thatHainanProvincehas obvious seasonal variation of wind power output characteristics, higher levels of output of the year generally in winter or summer, spring and autumn to contribute small. The average wind power output will contribute to “low day and high night”, with certain peaking capacity. Shorter time scales, changes in the wind power to smaller amount, not to bring too much impact on system operation, while a long time fluctuations affect the scheduling and running on the grid.

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Load Flow Analysis Considering Wind Power Forecast Error Correlation

Short-term power flow analysis has a significant influence on day-ahead generation schedule. This paper proposes a time series model and prediction error distribution model of wind power output. With the consideration of wind speed and wind power output forecast error’s correlation, the probabilistic distributions of transmission line flows during tomorrow’s 96 time intervals are obtained using cumulants combined Gram-Charlier expansion method. The probability density function and cumulative distribution function of transmission lines on each time interval could provide scheduling planners with more accurate and comprehensive information. Simulation in IEEE 39-bus system demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

Investigations into Some Simple Expressions of the Gamma Function in Wind Power Theoretical Estimate by the Weibull Distribution

The Weibull distribution is a probability density function (PDF) which is widely used in the study of meteorological data. The statistical analysis of the wind speed v by using the Weibull distribution leads to the estimate of the mean wind speed , the variance of v around and the mean power density in the wind. The gamma function Γ is involved in those calculations, particularly Γ (1+1/k), Γ (1+2/k) and Γ (1+3/k). The paper reports the use of the Weibull PDF f(v) to estimate the gamma function. The study was performed by looking for the wind speeds related to the maximum values of f(v), v2 f(v) and v3 f(v). As a result, some approximate relationships were obtained for Γ (1+1/k), Γ (1+2/k) and Γ (1+3/k), that use some fitting polynomial functions. Very good agreements were found between the exact and the estimated values of Γ (1+n/k) that can be used for the estimation of the mean wind speed , the variance σ2 of the wind speed v;around the mean speed and the average wind power density.

Power Distribution Strategy Considering Active Power Loss for DFIGs Wind Farm

With the development of concentrated wind power areas, new energy’s dispatching problems are more prominent with its fast expansion. However, we can maximize the utilization of wind power under power curtailment conditions by optimal wind power dispatching. The paper studies on the basic theories of wind power turbines, and analyses the power’s control and output characteristics of wind turbine, which analyses the double-fed inductor generator’s excellent decoupling control of power and its excellent reactive power output capability. By studying the characteristics of wind power output, this paper provides a strategy for optimal dispatch in wind power generation. The calculation results show that the total active and reactive power output of the wind farm match the request of dispatch center. And the total active loss and total reactive loss is the least in the meantime.

Impact of Reactive Power in Power Evacuation from Wind Turbines

Application of Distributed Generation (DG) to supply the demands of a diverse customer base plays a vital role in the renewable energy environment. Various DG technologies are being integrated into power systems to provide alterna-tives to energy sources and to improve reliability of the system. Power Evacuation from these remotely located DG’s remains a major concern for the power utilities these days. The main cause of concern regarding evacuation is con-sumption of reactive power for excitation by Induction Generators (IG) used in wind power production which affects the power system in variety of ways. This paper deals with the issues related to reactive power consumption by Induc-tion generators during power evacuation. Induction generator based wind turbine model using MATLAB/SIMULINK is simulated and its impact on the grid is observed. The simulated results are analyzed and validated with the real time results for the system considered. A wind farm is also modeled and simulations are carried out to study the various im-pacts it has on the grid &nearby wind turbines during Islanding and system event especially on 3-Phase to ground fault.

Research and Application of Probability Distribution of Wind Power Fluctuation Characteristics

The fluctuation characteristics is the inherent property of wind power.Through analysis of a large number of wind t＇anns based on measured data,we find it describes the best probability distribution of wind power fluctuation for the mixed Gauss distribution of two components,and try to carry out the physical interpretation of two components.Further discussion is between the probability distribution of fluctuating wind power time difference and whole relationship.It is found that the two have basic similarity.Through comparing the different time level data quantified losses the information of wind power fluctuation,quantitative determination of the degree of impact prediction.We can summarize and understand of wind power fluctuation,constructing instance from the wind farm construction and monitoring prediction two aspect recommendations to overcome the adverse effects of wind power fluctuations on the power grid operation.

Dynamic Protective Control Strategy for Distributed Generation System with Fixed-speed Wind Turbines

The characteristics of induction generator based fixed-speed wind turbines(FSWT)are investigated.The impacts of different execution time in protective operations are studied under different fault duration and various wind velocity situations,e.g.,FSWT stabilities of load shedding in distribution systems.Based on this research,a dynamic protective control strategy for a distributed generation system(DGS)with FSWT is proposed.Finally,simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the strategy.

Modeling and Simulation of DVR and D-STATCOM in Presence of Wind Energy System

The present study suggests that series voltage injection is more effective than parallel current injection to improve voltage quality on the load side.The line voltage can be accurately symmetrized at the connection point by creating and controlling a series voltage component in each phase.This is more reliable and effective than parallel current injection.A dynamic voltage restorer(DVR)and a distribution static synchronous compensator(DSTATCOM)were utilized to provide the required power.The DVR is an effective andmodern device utilized in parallel within the grid and can protect sensitive loads from voltage problems in the grid by injecting voltage.The DVR and D-STATCOM were used to improve voltage stability in faults.A standard 13-bus system was studied in the presence of a wind farm.The simulation results demonstrated that single and three-phase overloads dramatically altered the voltage of the system,making it necessary to use compensators to improve voltage stability.The DVR and D-STATCOM showed similar performance under normal conditions and somewhat improved grid voltage unbalance.However,the DVR outperformed D-STATCOM under asymmetric faults conditions and led to lower voltage variations.

Connecting Wind Turbine Generator to Distribution Power Grid--A Preload Flow Calculation Stage

A distribution grid is generally characterized by a high R/X （resistance/reactance） ratio and it is radial in nature. By design, a distribution grid system is not an active network, and it is normally designed in such a way that power flows from transmission system via distribution system to consumers. But in a situation when wind turbines are connected to the distribution grid, the power source will change from one source to two sources, in this case, network is said to be active. This may probably have an impact on the distribution grid to whenever the wind turbine is connected. The best way to know the impact of wind turbine on the distribution grid in question is by carrying out load flow analysis on that system with and without the connection of wind turbines. Two major fundamental calculations： the steady-state voltage variation at the PCC （point of common coupling） and the calculation of short-circuit power of the grid system at the POC （point of connection） are necessary before carrying out the load flow study on the distribution grid. This paper, therefore, considers these pre-load flow calculations that are necessary before carrying out load flow study on the test distribution grid. These calculations are carded out on a test distribution system.

基于分布式潮流控制器的海上风电系统谐波治理方法和控制策略

由于电力电缆的电容效应,海上风电经电缆汇集系统极易出现谐波谐振放大的现象,造成电能质量的下降。分布式潮流控制器属于基于电压源换流器的装置,在进行潮流调节的同时也能进行谐波治理。文中首先构建了海上风电系统的频域相关模型,基于该模型分析了谐波谐振放大的原因;随后,采用了将分布式潮流控制器串入海上风电系统的谐波治理方式,推导并得到了含分布式潮流控制器的海上风电系统的谐波特性。基于该谐波特性,设计了一种控制策略。该策略通过控制分布式潮流控制器实时跟踪使并网点谐波电压幅值为零的谐波补偿电压,从而降低并网点的谐波电压含量。仿真结果表明,所提出的基于分布式潮流控制器的海上风电系统谐波治理方法和控制策略能够有效地降低并网点的谐波电压,改善电能质量。

含分布式电源和电动汽车的配电网可靠性评估

针对目前大规模分布式电源和电动汽车接入配电网后,给配电网可靠性带来一定影响的问题,提出了一种含有分布式电源和电动汽车的新型配电网的可靠性评估方法。首先,考虑到风光出力的不确定性和相关性,选择拟合性最优的Frank-Copula函数,建立了风光联合出力概率模型。其次,分析了电动汽车用户行为特征,提出了基于动态分时电价的电动汽车有序充放电控制策略。最后,基于改进IEEE-RBTS Bus6测试系统的主馈线F4,对系统的可靠性指标进行计算分析,结果表明所提的风光联合出力模型和有序充放电控制策略可以有效降低对配电网可靠性的影响。

海上风电场区位分布的动态演进和影响因素研究

为应对能源安全和气候变化,培育新兴产业,我国大力发展海上风电产业。经过十余年发展,海上风电累计装机总量已跃居全球首位,但在这一过程中,风电场的区位分布表现出显著的时空异质性,即随着时间推移,其经历一个由江苏到福建、广东、山东等地动态演化的过程,研究不同阶段影响区位分布的主导因素及其变化,对政府制定有效政策以促进产业发展具有重要意义。根据国家发布的政策文件以及中国风能协会等公布的数据,本文划分了海上风电发展阶段,采用动态偏离-份额拓展模型来测度产业转移以揭示区位分布的演进;进一步将模糊集定性比较分析法与地理探测器模型结合,从动态的角度分析了产业发展各阶段区位分布的主导因素及其变化,并剖析了增长突出省区市的发展路径及其差异化。研究表明,发展初期,海上风电场区位分布受政府扶持力度和自然因素的影响较多,随着产业发展及技术进步,创新环境与专业人才逐渐成为关键因素,典型的发展路径有政策驱动型、水域-政策驱动型、风能驱动型、创新-知识型、知识-政策驱动型等。进一步加快人才培养、完善产业链条、优化扶持方式应成为推动产业健康持续发展的努力方向。

风电系统高影响天气的时空格局分析

以风电系统为例,基于已有标准和研究,定义和识别了与风速和气温等基本气象要素相关的风电系统高影响天气,并利用近30年气象站观测资料,总结了风电系统高影响天气的时空格局。研究发现,这些高影响天气的区域特征明显:新疆、四川盆地(“三北”、川渝西部和沿海地区)等地多出现影响风电出力的小风天气(大风天气),影响电力设备安全的极大风多出现在我国西部高原山地和东部沿海地区;夏季高温频发(冬季低温频发和电线积冰风险较高)的气象站主要分布在新疆东部、川渝东部、华东中部(东北、蒙西和新疆北部)等地。这些高影响天气的年代际变化也存在差异:我国大部分地区的大风日数和小风日数,以及东北、蒙西和新疆等地的低温日数和电线积冰风险日数在近10年都维持较低水平,这对风电出力和电力系统安全都是有利的;我国大部分区域的极端高温日数近30年来不断增加,这将给我国夏季电力设备的稳定运行和能源保供带来更多风险。

基于二维动态减载和双层MPC的风储联合调频与功率优化分配

风机可以通过减载控制提供调频备用功率,但存在弃风量大的问题。为此,结合储能装置,设计了考虑风速分区与储能荷电状态(SOC)的二维动态减载策略,在提供充足调频备用功率的同时减小了弃风功率。在此基础上,结合双层模型预测控制(MPC)架构,提出了计及机组转矩波动的风储联合调频控制策略,上层MPC将风电场视作整体,通过协调风储出力提升调频效果;下层MPC通过风电场内的功率优化分配以抑制机组的转矩波动,保证调频性能的同时提高了机组运行稳定性。通过仿真分析验证了所提策略的有效性,结果表明该减载策略具有更高的风能利用率,且在调频过程中通过机组的功率优化分配减小了机组的转矩波动,提高了机组运行稳定性。