Modeling Simulation Technology Research for Distribution Network Planning

This paper proposes to use the power system simulation software CYME to plan, model and simulate for an actual distribution network for improving the reliability and efficiency, enhancing the efficiency and capacity, simulating the abnormal condition of distribution network, and presenting operation program of safe, reliable and having simulation record statements. The modeling simulation results show that the software module has lots of advantages including high accuracy, ideal reliability, powerful practicality in simulation and analysis of distribution network, it only need to create once model, the model can sufficiently satisfy multifarious types of simulation analysis required for the distribution network planning.

A Precision-Positioning Method for a High-Acceleration Low-Load Mechanism Based on Optimal Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Inertial Energy

High-speed and precision positioning are fundamental requirements for high-acceleration low-load mechanisms in integrated circuit （IC） packaging equipment. In this paper, we derive the transient nonlinear dynamicresponse equations of high-acceleration mechanisms, which reveal that stiffness, frequency, damping, and driving frequency are the primary factors. Therefore, we propose a new structural optimization and velocity-planning method for the precision positioning of a high-acceleration mechanism based on optimal spatial and temporal distribution of inertial energy. For structural optimization, we first reviewed the commonly flexible multibody dynamic optimization using equivalent static loads method （ESLM）, and then we selected the modified ESLM for optimal spatial distribution of inertial energy; hence, not only the stiffness but also the inertia and frequency of the real modal shapes are considered. For velocity planning, we developed a new velocity-planning method based on nonlinear dynamic-response optimization with varying motion conditions. Our method was verified on a high-acceleration die bonder. The amplitude of residual vibration could be decreased by more than 20% via structural optimization and the positioning time could be reduced by more than 40% via asymmetric variable velocity planning. This method provides an effective theoretical support for the precision positioning of high-acceleration low-load mechanisms.

Analysis of overload-based cascading failure in multilayer spatial networks

Many complex networks in real life are embedded in space and most infrastructure networks are interdependent,such as the power system and the transport network.In this paper,we construct two cascading failure models on the multilayer spatial network.In our research,the distance l between nodes within the layer obeys the exponential distribution P(l)~exp(-l/ζ),and the length r of dependency link between layers is defined according to node position.An entropy approach is applied to analyze the spatial network structure and reflect the difference degree between nodes.Two metrics,namely dynamic network size and dynamic network entropy,are proposed to evaluate the spatial network robustness and stability.During the cascading failure process,the spatial network evolution is analyzed,and the numbers of failure nodes caused by different reasons are also counted,respectively.Besides,we discuss the factors affecting network robustness.Simulations demonstrate that the larger the values of average degree<k>,the stronger the network robustness.As the length r decreases,the network performs better.When the probability p is small,asζdecreases,the network robustness becomes more reliable.When p is large,the network robustness manifests better performance asζincreases.These results provide insight into enhancing the robustness,maintaining the stability,and adjusting the difference degree between nodes of the embedded spatiality systems.

Unbalance Level Regulating Algorithm in Power Distribution Networks

The paper dwells on the unified power quality indexes characterizing the phenomenon of voltage unbalance in three-phase systems. Voltage unbalance is one of the commonest occurrences in the town mains of 0.38 kV voltage. The phenomenon describes as inequality of vector magnitude of phase voltage and shearing angle between them. Causes and consequences of the voltage unbalance in distribution networks have been considered. The algorithm, which allows switching one-phase load, has been developed as one of the methods of reducing the unbalance level. The algorithm is written in the function block diagram programming language. For determining the duration and magnitude of the unbalance level it is proposed to introduce the forecasting algorithm. The necessary data for forecasting are accumulated in the course of the algorithm based on the Function Block Diagram. The algorithm example is given for transforming substation of the urban electrical power supply system. The results of the economic efficiency assessment of the algorithm implementation are shown in conclusion. The use of automatic switching of the one-phase load for explored substation allows reducing energy losses (active electric energy by 7.63%;reactive energy by 8.37%). It also allows improving supply quality to a consumer. For explored substation the average zero-sequence unbalance factor has dropped from 3.59% to 2.13%, and the negative-sequence unbalance factor has dropped from 0.61% to 0.36%.

An Optimized Algorithm for Renewable Energy Forecasting Based on Machine Learning

The large-scale application of renewable energy power generation technology brings new challenges to the operation of traditional power grids andenergy management on the load side. Microgrid can effectively solve this problemby using its regulation and flexibility, and is considered to be an ideal platform.The traditional method of computing total transfer capability is difficult due tothe central integration of wind farms. As a result, the differential evolutionextreme learning machine is offered as a data mining approach for extractingoperating rules for the total transfer capability of tie-lines in wind-integratedpower systems. K-medoids clustering under the two-dimensional “wind power-load consumption” feature space is used to define representative operational scenarios initially. Then, using stochastic sampling and repetitive power flow, aknowledge base for total transfer capability operating rule mining is created.Then, a novel method is used to filter redundant characteristics and find featuresthat are closely associated to the total transfer capability in order to decrease theultra-high dimensionality of operational features. Finally, by feeding the trainingdata into the proposed algorithm, the total transfer capability operation rules arederived from the knowledge base. It can be seen that, the proposed algorithmcan optimize the system performance with good accuracy and generality, according to numerical data.

基于误差幅空特性分析的空间负荷预测误差评价方法

对空间负荷预测误差进行有效评价是客观认识预测结果,指导预测结果合理应用的前提。然而,现有空间负荷预测误差评价的研究存在对误差的空间分布不考虑或考虑不充分导致评价不准确的问题。为此,提出一种基于误差幅空特性分析的空间负荷预测误差评价方法。首先,从空间负荷预测误差幅值大小和空间分布对电网规划影响的角度出发,对误差的幅空特性进行详细分析;其次,利用运输问题的数学模型来表征正负误差的幅空抵消特性,使用各空间邻近度–幅值误差值曲线与x轴围成面积之和来表征剩余未抵消误差的幅空叠加特性;然后,分别通过伏格尔法和各梯形面积累加公式来计算正负误差的幅空抵消影响值和剩余未抵消误差的幅空叠加影响值,并在此基础上构建空间负荷预测误差评价指标;最后,基于误差对电网规划的实际影响给出对误差评价指标性能的检验方法。算例分析表明,与传统方法相比,该文所提误差评价方法从幅值和空间两个维度实现了对空间负荷预测误差更为全面的评估,与误差对电网规划影响的实际情况贴近度更高。

考虑柔性负荷整形的含源配电线路升级与开关配置综合优化

针对高比例分布式光伏接入造成配电线路重过载的问题,提出一种基于时序互补线路互联和柔性负荷整形的配电线路升级与开关配置综合优化方法。考虑柔性负荷功率调节意愿、线路负载率与功率反送约束,提出柔性负荷整形潜力和线路分段整形需求计算方法。以此为基础,建立了考虑柔性负荷整形的含源配电线路升级与开关配置综合优化双层模型。其中,上层模型以配电线路年规划成本最低、线路段净负荷功率和柔性资源均衡为目标进行线路选型和开关配置,下层模型以线路年运行成本最低为目标进行网络重构和负荷曲线整形,通过上、下层模型交互迭代获得互联线路改造优化方案。上、下层模型分别采用非支配排序遗传算法、二阶锥与大M法进行求解。算例仿真结果表明,所提方法可以提高互联线路资产利用率、规划方案的经济性和可靠性,对互联线路进行柔性负荷整形有利于突破线路负载率50%的限制。

考虑分布式电源时空相关及电动汽车充电负荷分布特性的有源配电网概率潮流

目前分布式电源(distribution generation,DG)和电动汽车(electric vehicle,EV)充电负荷等随机变量接入电力系统时时空特性考虑不足,会导致概率潮流计算偏离实际。因此该文提出了考虑DG时空相关及EV分布特性的有源配电网概率潮流模型。首先,利用场景生成建立时空相关的风电、光伏出力概率模型;然后,考虑路网约束和用户心理,建立考虑EV时空分布特性的负荷概率模型;最后,以Nataf变换结合奇异值分解处理相关性输入变量,运用三点估计法对概率潮流进行计算,通过Cornish-Fisher级数拟合得到累积分布函数。以IEEE-33节点系统进行测试,利用所提模型分析了DG时空相关性和EV分布特性对配电网潮流的影响。结果表明DG时空相关性主要影响系统的波动性,EV分布特性主要影响系统的运行特性。该文研究可为新型配电网的安全运行提供理论指导。

基于负荷预测和无迹粒子滤波的配电网动态状态估计

随着汽车充电成为新型重要负荷,为确保此时配电网运行与控制安全,对其进行实时准确的态势感知,提出一种基于卷积神经网络和门控循环单元的短期负荷预测与无迹粒子滤波算法自适应混合的配电网动态状态估计方法。结合使用卷积神经网络和门控循环单元进行短期负荷预测,将预测得到的有功与无功功率进行潮流计算,再与无迹粒子滤波量测估计值自适应加权得到电压幅值和相角状态估计结果。以IEEE33节点配电网为例,验证了所提状态估计方法的准确性与面对不良数据时的鲁棒性。

考虑天气特征与多变量相关性的配电网短期负荷预测

针对配电网短期负荷预测受到众多复杂天气特征等随机不确定性因素影响,以及传统预测模型难以有效分析不同特征序列之间的相关性等问题,提出一种考虑天气特征与多变量相关性的配电网短期负荷预测方法。首先,提出多变量快速最大信息系数(multi-variable rapid maximal information coefficient,MVRapidMIC)提取相关性高的天气特征序列。其次,引入探索性因子分析法(exploratory factor analysis,EFA),对高相关性特征序列进行降维处理。最后,将维度分段(dimension-segment-wise,DSW)机制和两阶段注意力(two-stage attention,TSA)机制与Informer模型结合,提高预测模型对不同特征序列相关性的分析能力。通过DTU 7K 47节点实际配电网的历史负荷数据开展仿真测试,验证所提方法的预测精度、鲁棒性和时效性。

基于时空图注意力网络的超短期区域负荷预测

目前,空间负荷预测研究对复杂时空关系的考虑不足。为此,文中提出一种基于多维、多源特征的区域级负荷超短期时空预测模型。首先,根据已有的区域级负荷进行元胞划分,构建考虑元胞相关性的图拓扑。其次,分别通过图注意力网络、一维卷积神经网络和门控循环单元,从空间、特征和时间维度提取有效特征,连接全连接层输出结果。最后,基于美国新英格兰地区的真实电力负荷数据进行仿真验证,并提取模型注意力权重,分析元胞之间的空间依赖性。结果表明,所提模型相比传统模型在不同预测步长上均具有更高的预测精度和稳定性,有效挖掘了区域级负荷的空间依赖性。

基于融合集成算法的配电网负荷预测研究

配电网的负荷预测在电力运行状态监测中尤为重要。负荷预测的精度提升为电网的安全、稳定运行提供了保障。通过对融合集成算法的研究,提出了一种基于关联特征选择的融合集成算法。在数据集的选择上,使用相关系数和灰色关联算法综合对样本中负荷影响较小的特征进行剔除,使得样本数据集的相关性更高;同时,对传统Stacking集成学习的输入和输出特征进行优化,提高了模型的预测效果。试验结果表明,基于融合集成算法的配电网负荷预测模型与传统的Stacking集成算法、XGBoost、灰狼优化-反向传播算法相比,负荷预测的精度提升了3.07%。该模型总体性能表现较好。该研究结果有效地支撑了配电网的负荷监测和规划,也为电力系统故障诊断提供了参考。

配电网精细化拓扑运行状态DCNN在线辨识方法

构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统是实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的重要手段。新型电力系统中新能源将成为主力电源,高渗透率接入的新能源将深刻改变电力系统的形态、特性和机理。提出了一种结合潮流方程和深度神经网络的融合方法求解与量测值最优匹配的拓扑和线路参数估计方法,通过分析海量信息数据,透过数据关系探究电网运行规律,用于配电网精细化拓扑辨识及线路参数估计。首先,利用线性回归方法对拓扑和线路参数进行初步估计,得到初步辨识参数,并对初始辨识参数进行降噪处理;然后,基于深度神经网络对量测数据进行特征筛选,将筛选出的特征类别与相应的拓扑结构一一对应,构建训练数据集,进行离线训练,最终得到训练后的模型,从而得到精准的拓扑结构。最后,在IEEE 33节点配电网中进行了仿真验证,证明了该方法的有效性和较强的工程实用性。

考虑动态重构和智能软开关接入的配电网源网荷储联合规划

随着新能源大量接入配电网,新能源出力的不确定性和波动性给配电网规划带来了巨大挑战。在配电网规划中综合考虑源网荷储,可减少新能源不确定性和波动性对规划结果的影响。提出了一种考虑动态重构和智能软开关接入的配电网源网荷储联合规划方法。首先,根据密度峰值聚类的思想提出了基于密度峰值改进的近邻传播聚类算法,对风光荷联合场景进行聚类获得典型日曲线。然后,以规划总费用最小为目标函数,建立了考虑动态重构和智能软开关接入的配电网源网荷储联合规划模型,并基于二阶锥理论,将原非凸非线性规划模型转化为混合整数二阶锥规划模型。最后,在Portugal 54算例上进行仿真验证,证明了所提模型和方法的有效性。

多元数据融合的智能配电网负荷分析预测管理系统

针对多元大数据在智能配电网中的应用问题,为实现配电网的精益管理、科学预测和合理规划,文章开发了多元数据融合的智能配电网负荷分析预测管理系统。对软件系统的总体框架进行了设计;对软件系统的各功能模块进行开发和介绍;给出了软件系统的一个应用实例。该系统充分利用海量的历史负荷数据进行负荷特性分析,建立负荷特征库以及业扩信息库,通过对新接入用户进行信息匹配实现负荷管理及最大负荷预测。此外,该系统建立负荷预测方法模型库,可提供不同维度的负荷预测功能,从传统的地区负荷预测转变为馈线负荷预测,结合馈线现状以及业扩信息优化用户接入决策。总的来说,该系统具有功能模块数据链路互通、不同功能之间能提供信息支持、整体采用模块化设计思想等特点,可满足电网企业的日常应用需求。

跟踪光伏计划出力偏差的储能容量配置研究

不同典型天气下光伏出力预测误差具有明显差异,为保证分布式光伏集群友好接入,提出一种考虑光伏发电功率预测误差不确定性的共享储能容量配置方法。首先基于注意力机制和长短时记忆神经网络(long-term short-term memory neural network,LSTM)对分布式光伏出力进行预测,再与不同典型气象条件下的光伏出力实际值进行对比得到预测误差。然后以共享储能配置成本最优为目标,建立跟踪光伏出力计划偏差的共享储能容量配置模型,通过引入鲁棒机会规划约束来描述预测误差的不确定性,并采用凸逼近方法将原模型转化为确定性模型进行求解。仿真结果表明,所提方法在保证补偿效果的同时能最大提升储能配置的经济性。

基于BOXGBoost的配变日峰值负荷预测及重过载预警方法

为解决配变负荷日峰值预测精度不高、重过载预警误差大的问题,提出一种配变日峰值负荷预测及重过载预警方法。首先,基于时间卷积网络对配变日负荷进行预测;然后,通过贝叶斯优化极限梯度提升模型对配变日负荷峰值出现时刻及峰值区间幅值进行独立预测;最后,使用峰值预测补正日负荷预测结果并转化为预警等级,实现配变重过载预警。采用湖南某地区配电台区数据实例验证,结果表明,所提方法可实现配变日峰值负荷精确预测及准确预警重过载运行风险。

基于融合技术的中长期电力负荷预测方法

当前电力负荷预测模型在数据复杂性高、数据稀缺、模型泛化和动态社会经济因素适应性方面存在局限,影响了其在复杂电网规划中的应用。为满足电网或者大型风、光、火、储、网、荷能源基地项目的规划调度需求,提出了一种融合技术,将灰色预测、空间负荷密度预测和变分自编码器与深度因果卷积神经网络相结合,以实现中长期负荷预测。通过引入有序加权平均微分算子,融合不同预测方法,提升结果的准确性。实验结果表明,本方法相较于传统方法展现更高的准确性和鲁棒性,特别是在进行电力负荷远景预测时,所提方法能够有效提升预测的可靠性和适用性。该技术有效克服传统方法固有的数据复杂性、数据稀缺性和模型泛化问题,同时适应社会经济条件的动态变化。该方法为电网、大型源网荷储多能互补类项目的规划和发展提供有力的决策支持。

基于差分进化算法的配电网网格负荷控制与规划技术研究

在配电网网格负荷控制与规划中,为优化配电网网格线损、供电质量、负荷等结构性指标,研究提出了一种基于差分进化算法的配电网网格负荷控制与规划技术。针对配电网格中各类发电装置,建立电网规划模型,设定和构建初始化种群,选取适当差分初始矢量实施变异处理,在差分增量下构成新个体的前提下,为提高后代种群多样性,利用交叉因子对差分出的个体实施交叉训练,以此形成新的分配个体。最后,利用贪婪选择模式评价和保留子代种群,控制可控负荷和不可控负荷的有功功率,从而完成电网网格规划。实验结果证明,运用差分进化算法对配电网网格的负荷控制和规划效果都比较好,鲁棒性能优越,迭代速度也更快。

有源配电网精细化负荷预测软件开发与应用

研究新型有源配电网背景下的精细化负荷预测方法,基于数值天气预报采用卷积神经网络Resnet预测光伏功率,考虑负荷特性和气象影响因素采用GRU算法预测用电负荷,光伏功率发电分量和用电负荷分量的预测结果累加得到有源负荷的精细化预测结果。此外,基于配电云主站设计精细化负荷预测的软件架构和功能模块,开展基于短期负荷预测的配电网动态网络重构研究,考虑负荷时序分段,给出日前24小时的动态优化策略。最后,在某地市配电区域进行算例验证,结果表明:对于含源负荷,精细化负荷预测比直接等值负荷预测结果更准确,基于精细化负荷预测的动态网络重构可降低负荷均衡度并优化光伏消纳。