Research on Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distribution Stations Based on the Clustering Improvement Fuzzy Time Series Algorithm

An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.

Evaluation of Multi-Temporal-Spatial Scale Adjustment Capability and Cluster Optimization Operation Method for Distribution Networks with Distributed Photovoltaics

Themassive integration of high-proportioned distributed photovoltaics into distribution networks poses significant challenges to the flexible regulation capabilities of distribution stations.To accurately assess the flexible regulation capabilities of distribution stations,amulti-temporal and spatial scale regulation capability assessment technique is proposed for distribution station areas with distributed photovoltaics,considering different geographical locations,coverage areas,and response capabilities.Firstly,the multi-temporal scale regulation characteristics and response capabilities of different regulation resources in distribution station areas are analyzed,and a resource regulation capability model is established to quantify the adjustable range of different regulation resources.On this basis,considering the limitations of line transmission capacity,a regulation capability assessment index for distribution stations is proposed to evaluate their regulation capabilities.Secondly,considering different geographical locations and coverage areas,a comprehensive performance index based on electrical distance modularity and active power balance is established,and a cluster division method based on genetic algorithms is proposed to fully leverage the coordination and complementarity among nodes and improve the active power matching degree within clusters.Simultaneously,an economic optimization model with the objective of minimizing the economic cost of the distribution station is established,comprehensively considering the safety constraints of the distribution network and the regulation constraints of resources.This model can provide scientific guidance for the economic dispatch of the distribution station area.Finally,case studies demonstrate that the proposed assessment and optimization methods effectively evaluate the regulation capabilities of distribution stations,facilitate the consumption of distributed photovoltaics,and enhance the economic efficiency of the distribution station area.

Effect of uneven noise source and/or station distribution on estimating the azimuth anisotropy of surface waves

With the development of the dense array,the surface wave velocity and azimuthal anisotropy under the array can be directly obtained by beamforming the noise cross-correlation functions(NCFs). However, the retrieval of the Green’s function by cross-correlating the seismic noise requires that the noise source has a uniform distribution. For the case with uneven noise source, the azimuthal dependence on the sources in the expression for the spatial coherence function, which corresponds to the NCF in the time domain,has the same form as the azimuthal dependence of the surface wave velocity in weakly anisotropic media. Therefore, the uneven noise source will affect the surface wave anisotropy extraction. In this study, three passive seismic methods, i.e.,beamforming, SPAC(spatial autocorrelation), and NCF, are compared to demonstrate that an uneven source distribution and uneven station distribution have equivalent effects on the outcome from each method. A beamforming method is proposed to directly extract the velocity and azimuthal anisotropy of surface waves. The effect of uneven noise source and/or station distribution on estimating the azimuth anisotropy of surface waves was investigated using data from the ChinArray Phase Ⅱ. A method for correcting the apparent anisotropy in beamforming results caused by an uneven station distribution is suggested.

A Novel Technology for Generation of Electricity and Cold by Using Energy Potential of Transmission Line＇s High Pressure Gas

The main objective of this paper is to develop a novel technology for combined generation of electricity and cold by using energy potential of transmission line＇s high pressure gas. For this purpose, the reduction of high pressure of the gas in gas distribution station instead of useless expansion throttling process is suggested to realize by adiabatic expansion, which is executed in a gas expanding turbine. Herewith, the gas distribution station is turned into energy and cold generating plant. Simultaneous operation of energy and cold generating plant is described. A method and appropriate formulas for determination of design characteristics of considered plant are suggested. A new method for reveres order of calculation and design of the cold store based on the use of expanded cold gas as cooling agent is developed. Calculations and analysis prove high energy efficiency of suggested technology, the wide use of which will provide significant production of cheap electricity and cold and as well as reduction of fossil fuel consumption.

Comparative Study on Distributed Waste Pyrolysis Cold Emission Energy Station and Incineration Power Generation

The proper terminal disposal of organic solid waste such as domestic waste is a worldwide issue.Landfill covers a large area,with limited capacity,and a single landfill will be filled one day;incineration is costly to build and operate.These methods all need to transfer and centralized treatment,and secondary pollution is difficult to control,against the purification law of the nature."NIMBY effect"is very serious,and the social cost of treatment is increasing,becoming a heavy financial burden."The Distributed Waste Pyrolysis Cold Emission Energy Station"developed by Hunan Zhongzhou Energy-Saving Technology Co.,Ltd.overcomes these disadvantages and constructs a more appropriate environmental economic industrial chain for the treatment of organic solid waste such as urban and rural household waste.Based on its technical characteristics,this paper compares it with waste incineration power generation project in the aspects of secondary pollution control,treatment effect,energy utilization,investment and operation economy,etc.

Precise orbit determination for a large LEO constellation with inter-satellite links and the measurements from different ground networks:a simulation study

Geodetic applications of Low Earth Orbit(LEO)satellites requires accurate satellite orbits.Instead of using onboard Global Navigation Satellite System observations,this contribution treats the LEO satellite constellation independently,using Inter-Satellite Links and the measurements of different ground networks.Due to geopolitical and geographical reasons,a ground station network cannot be well distributed.We compute the impact of different ground networks(i.e.,global networks with different numbers of stations and regional networks in different areas and latitudes)on LEO satellite orbit determination with and without the inter-satellite links.The results are based on a simulated constellation of 90 LEO satellites.We find that the orbits determined using a high latitude network is worse than using a middle or low latitude network.This is because the high latitude network has a poorer geometry even if the availability of satellite measurements is higher than for the other two cases.Also,adding more stations in a regional network shows almost no improvements on the satellite orbits if the number of stations is more than 16.With the help of ISL observations,however,the satellite orbits determined with a small regional network can reach the same accuracy as that with the global network of 60 stations.Furthermore,satellite biases can be well estimated(less than 0.6 mm)and have nearly no impact on satellite orbits.It does thus not matter if they are not physically calibrated for estimating precise orbits.

Dynamics of an autonomous Gilpin-Ayala competition model with random perturbation

This paper discusses the dynamics of a Gilpin-Ayala competition model of two interact­ing species perturbed by white noise.We obtain the existence of a unique global positive solution of the system and the solution is bounded in pth moment.Then,we establish sufficient and necessary conditions for persistence and the existence of an ergodic sta­tionary distribution of the model.We also establish sufficient conditions for extinction of the model.Moreover,numerical simulations are carried out for further support of present research.