A Domestic View of Economic and Trade Development

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Domestic Savings,Investment,and Economic Growth:an Empirical Evidence from Nepal using VEC Model

This study examines the relationship between domestic savings,investment,and economic growth in Nepal by using time series data covering from the period 1975 to 2019.The vector error correction model(VECM)has been used to investigate the long-run and short-run causal relationship between the variables.The Johansen cointegration test results confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between savings,investment,and economic growth.Therefore,further analysis has to be set for the VEC model to analyze both long-run and short-run causality.The VECM equation result is-0.1363 which is the adjustment speed of disequilibrium towards the equilibrium in long run.The coeffi cient of savings and investments are positive with economic growth which also indicates that both variables have a positive impact on economic growth in the short run.The results of the Jarque-Bera test show the residual distribution is normally distributed.For the model stability test,the study performed recursive estimation applying CUSUM and CUSUM of square,and both tests move within the 5 percent level of upper and lesser bound significance indicating that the model is stable over the observation period.Overall,the study suggests that in Nepal,domestic savings and investment growth have a positive contribution to economic growth.The central bank,planning commission,and ministry of finance should focus on stimulating the capital formation and productive sector investment for sustainable economic growth in Nepal.

Domestic Demand-Based Economic Globalization： Strategic Choice for China to Profit from the Second Wave of Globalization

China＇s first wave of economic globalization is characterized by its full utilization of foreign advanced, especially innovative, production factors in the domestic market to develop its innovation economy. China＇s participation in global economy can be described as fully utilizing domestic low-end production factors through foreign markets. This type of participation has been overdone. As China aims to engage in a second wave of economic globalization, the focus is to implement an in-depth globalization strategy under the condition of expanding domestic demands, namely and to develop the global economy based on domestic demands, The purpose is to achieve an economic rebalance with the world and help China out of its overcapacity predicament in weaker global economic climates. Moreover, it will bring China a chance to introduce foreign advanced factors to accelerate growth and develop innovation economy by turning economic crisis in the West into opportunities.

China's economic growth pushed by domestic demand and relevant measures

By contrast to a slowdown in the world economy, China kept up a rapid growth rate, a relatively high quality of growth and low inflation for the year 2001. This is mainly due to the result of proactive fiscal policies that the Chinese Government adopted to stimulate domestic demand. Domestic demand can be divided into investment demand and consumption demand,

Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth in China: A Test of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

We apply a two pronged approach to analyze the presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC, in three types of emissions in the People’s Republic of China from 1994 to 2014: a structural breakpoint analysis and a model based test. We apply it to PM2.5, industrial waste and domestic water pollution time series, and find evidence of EKC in all three types of emissions that require appropriate policy.

Analyzing economic feasibility for investing in nursing care: Evidence from panel data analysis in 35 OECD countries

Objective:To analyze economic feasibility for investing in nursing care.Method:The number of practicing nurses'density per 1000 population as a proxy for nursing staff and Gross Domestic Product(GDP)per capita(current US$)were collected in 35 member countries of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)over 2000-2016 period.The statistical technique of panel data analysis including unit root test,cointegration analysis,Granger causality test,dynamic long-run model analysis and error correction model were applied to measure economic impact of nursing-related services.Results:There was a committed bilateral relationship between nurse-staffing level and GDP with longrun magnitudes of 1.39 and 0A1 for GDP-lead-nurse and nurse-lead-GDP directions in OECD countries,respectively.Moreover,the highest long-run magnitudes of the effect nursing staff has on increasing GDP per capita were calculated in Finland(2.07),Sweden(1.92),Estonia(1.68),Poland(1.52),Czech Republic(1.48),Norway(1.47)and Canada(1.24).Conclusion:Our findings verify that although the dependency of nursing characteristics to GDP per capita is higher than the reliance of GDP to number of nurses'density per 1000 population,investing in nursing care is economically feasible in OECD countries i.e.nursing is not only a financial burden(or cost)on health care systems,but also an economic stimulus in OECD countries.Hence,we alert governments and policy makers about the risk of underestimating the economic impacts of nurses on economic systems of OECD countries.

Relationship between the Environment and Economic Growth in China via Exports: A Perspective of Ecological Impact (2000-2014)

China’s swift and substantial economic growth over the past 20 years has made the country one of the top industrial powers in the world, second only the United States. From the perspective of ecology and the impact on the environment produced by economic and industrial growth, the exports that have driven rapid growth have also resulted in an alarming level of environmental pollution in major Chinese cities. Research has shown that the Chinese government’s investment in bringing down pollution levels has been insufficient and ineffective. The monetary amount allocated for pollution reduction has barely reached 0.15% of the country’s GDP and has failed to meaningfully reverse the effects of industrialization, including increased exports and economic growth rates affecting China’s ecology. The present study investigated China’s ecological situation in terms of the industrial production that has generated its level of exports, with special focus on problems related to water, air, and solid waste. An econometric analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between the main variables. The exports and GDP (dependent variable), air pollution, water pollution, and industrial solid waste (independent variables) were provided by the Institute of Statistics and the Environment Institute of China for this study. The data was managed in Econometric Eviews 7.0 software and yielded an adjusted R2 of 96.09% (high correlation) with an interesting correlation between the exports and three independent variables;after subsequent variable analysis, we found that investments in water and industrial solid waste were not significant (i.e., that said investments have failed to solve the pollution problem). It is necessary to review the Chinese investment policy with special attention to these variables to appropriately respond to China’s ecological crisis.

Function and Screening of Plants in Ecological Floating Bed Applied in Treating Rural Domestic Wastewater

With the construction of new countryside and the development of people's living standard,the environmental problems caused by rural domestic sewage gradually attracts more attention. Ecological floating bed is one of the effective techniques for treating rural domestic sewage. Building different types of ecological floating beds according to the surrounding environment characteristics in rural areas could treat rural domestic sewage with low operation cost,simple management and convenient maintenance,and could obtain a certain economic benefit as well. Therefore,ecological floating bed get fast development in treating rural domestic sewage. The screening of plants would be vital as an important role. Assembling different plants by choosing those with ornamental function,economic benefit and strong decontamination ability according to the surrounding environment and characteristics of domestic waste water along with the seasonal features of plant growth could take full advantages of ecological floating bed.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: Nigeria Experience

This study investigated the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Nigeria. Secondary source of data was employed in this study from 1986 to 2017 which were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2017) published in 2018 and World Development Indicator published in 2019. Descriptive and regression analyses were used as the estimation techniques. The findings of the study revealed that the coefficient value of LFDI is 0.633506 and its p-value is 0.0002 implying that a unit increase in LFDI will increase LGDP with the value of 0.633506. The coefficient value of RINTR is 0.004127 with p-value of 0.310 indicating that a unit increase in real interest rate will increase gross domestic product, but it is not significant. Also, LDI coefficient value is 1.758036 with p-value of 0.0688 implying that a unit increase in domestic investment will increase gross domestic product positively with the value of 1.758036 which is significant at 10% but not significant at 5% alpha level. The coefficient value of exchange rate is 0.835206 with the p-value of 0.0000 signifying that exchange rate is positive and significant to economic growth. It was concluded that foreign direct investment was positive and significant to economic growth of Nigeria while the domestic investment was also positive but not significant at 5% alpha level.

The interaction effect of foreign capital inflows and financial development on economic welfare in sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines the interaction effects of foreign capital inflows and financial development on economic welfare in sub-Saharan Africa(SSA).Estimates based on the system-GMM estimator using panel data on 23 SSA countries for 2000 to 2013 establish several results.First,the interaction between foreign capital inflows and financial development positively affects economic welfare in SSA.However,this effect was negative after one year.Second,the partial indirect effects of foreign capital inflows on economic welfare,conditional on the level of financial development,are positive,though they become negative after one year.Third,the total effect of foreign capital inflows on economic welfare is positive.The effect becomes negative after a year,though the predominant source of financial development is domestic credit.The consistency of these results indicates the importance of financial development in transmitting foreign capital to economic welfare enhancement.Developing the SSA’s financial sector to meet specific welfare-enhancing demands may potentially convert a large share of capital inflows into improved economic welfare and eliminate the negative effects.

Domestic, External Demands：Dual-Engines of China＇s Growti

China＇s economic growth has been driven by the dual-engine of domestic demand and external demand. Among which, domestic demand is the main engine originated from China＇s huge domestic market. Due to the advantage of openness, external demand has a growing contribution to economic growth. For a long term, China will remain in the stage of rapid industrialization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization, therefore China will further expand its domestic consumption and external demand. The undergoing institutional reform will also contribute to the coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand.

Nexus Between Financial Liberalization, Balance Of Payment And Economic Growth In Nigeria

The objectives of this paper are to examine the nexus between financial liberalization,balance of payment and economic growth in Nigeria.The scope of this study due to data availability,especially on measures of balance of payment,covers the period of 1986-2017.This study adopts econometrics techniques of analysis by using Panel Unit Root Tests and Co-integration analysis which is used to determine the long run relationship among economic variables.To test the co-integration relationship this study followed the system proposed by Pedroni(1991)who expands the Engle and Granger[9]two stage technique to heterogeneous board information structure.The study adopts annual time series secondary data for the period of 1986 to 2017.Balance of payment,Official Exchange Rate,Inflation rate(%),Balance of trade,Trade openness,Real Gross Domestic Product growth,and Term of Trade,all data used were obtained from the World Development Indicators.The findings of this study revealed that an increase in exchange rate,interest rate,inflation rate,and trade openness have negatively affect economic growth.Hence,changes or movements in these variables do not necessarily prompt the liberalization decision in the real sector.Therefore,the need to address balance of payment is important,in accordance with the low rate of development in Nigeria.We therefore,recommend that government should monitor both Fiscal and Monetary policies’variables that can significantly influence economic growth in Nigeria.That is,adequate balance of payment that can encourage appropriate financial liberalization should be put in place with,Official Exchange Rate,Inflation rate(%),Balance of trade,Trade openness.

形成消费和投资相互促进良性循环新局面

内需是国民经济总需求的主体,是大国经济最根本的发展动力。总需求不足是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾。消费是生产的最终目的与动力,投资是实现消费需求的工具与途径,消费和投资是驱动内需的双轮,两者紧密联系、相互影响,扩大内需必须坚持消费和投资共同发力。从消费与投资的关系看,投资是实现消费需求的工具与途径,投资的适度增长和投资结构的优化能够更好地满足更大规模和更高水平的消费需求,促进消费规模扩大和消费率增长;消费是生产的目的与动力,消费提质扩容和新消费需求涌现等变化会引起生产和供给变化,进而影响投资规模和投资结构。为促进内需潜力充分释放,要增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用和投资对优化供给结构的关键作用,形成促消费稳投资的合力,转向依靠消费和投资良性互动促进经济发展的模式,推进消费和投资相协调的高质量发展,疏通消费领域的体制机制障碍与制约消费实现的堵点,破除投资进入消费领域的障碍和隐形壁垒,形成消费和投资相互促进良性循环新局面。

我国国内大循环的测度、解构及内生动力研究:基于构建全国统一大市场的视角

党的二十大报告指出要增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性,准确测度、分解并动态描述我国国内大循环及区域间和产业间循环的水平、结构及时空演变趋势,找到畅通国内大循环发展的内生动力有重要意义。运用价值链循环分解方法对中国国内大循环水平进行测度,并从构建国内统一大市场的视角揭示国内大循环的内生动力。研究发现:中国各产业增加值主要依赖于国内循环,国内区域间循环占比远高于国内产业间循环占比,省外循环水平也略高于省内循环;国内大循环存在一定的空间相关性和地域差异,水平较高的省份主要分布在沿海沿江经济带;我国国内大循环发展整体上呈下降趋势,国内大循环在各区域(省份)的差异逐渐增加;构建全国统一大市场可有效抑制各省份的国内循环水平差异,提升整体的国内大循环水平,作用路径体现在通过消除生产、分配、流通和消费4个环节的堵点提升区域间循环水平。研究结论有利于从定量的角度深入理解国内大循环的现状与趋势,对于构建国内统一大市场、畅通国内大循环具有一定的启示意义。

中国经济内循环:来自多区域投入产出的演化证据

促进国内经济循环是新发展格局的重要内容。构建经济内循环的理论分析框架,将经济内循环分为区域内经济循环和区域间经济循环两个层面,在此基础上设计区域内循环、区域间循环的测度方法,并将全国划分为11大区域,重新构建11大区域投入产出表,测度分析2007—2015年中国经济内循环的区域特征、产业特征及其演化趋势。结果表明:(1)2007—2015年,中国各区域内部的循环能力总体得到提升,且长三角地区、黄河中下游地区、京津冀地区的区域内循环能力明显强于其他区域;(2)区域间循环系数整体上升,各区域间的差异缩小,其中京津冀地区、长三角地区、黄河中下游地区及大湾区与国内其他区域的联系最为紧密;(3)从区域内产业循环来看,制造业主要通过后向关联促进区域内循环,服务业主要通过前向关联促进区域内循环;(4)区域间产业循环的平均水平提升,通过后向关联促进区域间循环的产业集中在第二产业部门,通过前向关联促进区域间循环的产业集中在第三产业以及农业部门,京津冀地区、长三角地区、大湾区凭借多项优势产业,成为区域经济循环的引擎。

国内国际双循环动态宏观经济研究——基于中国、美国、日本及欧盟的时变溢出及动态经济网络视角

厘清国内外的宏观经济运行特征,对于制定实施加快构建新发展格局政策措施具有重要意义。为此,本文采用TVP-VAR模型的广义方差分解刻画国内外宏观经济变量间的动态关联关系,并基于这一关系构建国内外宏观经济动态网络。研究结果表明,进出口及汇率能够较大程度对经济网络产生溢出,而M2、利率和贷款则主要受到其他宏观变量的影响。我国宏观经济变量受国际金融及贸易的影响程度较大,美国对我国的净溢出总体上最强。从国内大循环的动态经济网络视角看,现阶段网络内重要的经济变量逐渐演化为固定资产投资、工业增加值和出口。从国内国际双循环的动态经济网络视角看,2011年以前,网络内重要的变量主要为国外宏观经济变量;从2011年至2021年底,网络内重要的变量逐步演化为固定资产投资、消费和工业增加值等国内宏观经济变量。

内循环与外循环互动:中美双循环路径的差异

构建新发展格局需要宏观大历史的比较视野。作为大国经济,中国发展的主线是以国内大循环促进国际大循环,美国发展的主线是以国际大循环促进国内大循环。当前,中美两国历史上第一次但可能不是最后一次,都站在了以国内大循环为主体的历史关口,都对国际大循环产生着重要乃至决定性的影响。作为负责任的全球利益攸关者,世界大国携手构建人类命运共同体乃是正途。

城市群背景下的中国消费中心发展研究

消费中心和城市群都是我国重要的区域发展对象,两者之间联系紧密,互动性强。消费中心概念的引入,能够为现有城市群研究提供新视角。城市群作为消费(中心)城市群,能够促进区域消费经济大发展,体现出消费性质差异化、消费形式多样化、消费水平层级化、消费内容普遍化、消费中心化、消费联系性强、消费完整度高、消费文化认同度高等特征,具有消费集聚构建宏大消费场景、消费中心化汇集更多消费动能、消费极化提升区域消费发展层级、整合消费形成区域消费竞争力等多重机制。基于熵值法、Dagum基尼系数及其分解法、Kernel估计法的量化分析表明,各城市群消费中心发展水平总体上呈稳定上升趋势,但不同城市群发展差异大。总体基尼系数走势较为平缓,甚至呈缓慢下降的态势。需要强化体制机制建设,以(国际)消费中心(城市)建设推动城市群发展。

以消费扩容提质促进经济高质量发展的理论逻辑及政策取向

在中国经济由高速增长转向高质量发展的新阶段,国内需求结构发生变迁,消费不断扩容提质,成为中国经济高质量发展的新动能,其理论逻辑是:消费规模扩大能够加快经济增长和经济循环,消费结构升级能够优化经济结构,新型消费的产生能够提升民生福祉。然而,中国消费在总量扩大、结构优化和质量提升方面还面临一些限制性因素,主要表现在:宏观经济增长不足制约居民收入提升,服务业发展滞后导致服务消费占比偏低,社会保障不足抑制中低收入群体消费潜力释放,体制机制和配套设施不够完善致使新型消费扩容受限。应从保持居民收入与宏观经济基本同步增长、加快服务业供给侧结构性改革、强化社会保障功能、加强新型消费的软硬环境建设等方面,构建消费扩容提质长效机制,让消费作为主动能更好促进经济高质量发展。

数字经济、统一大市场建设与经济增长

在建设全国统一大市场背景下,利用省级面板数据经验分析数字经济对中国经济增长的影响及内在机理。微观上数字经济会延后边际报酬递减的到来,释放生产与消费潜能,降低交易费用,提高企业生产运营效率;中观层面,数字经济通过与传统产业的深度融合,促进产业组织升级;宏观上数据作为新型要素进入生产过程中,提高资本、劳动力等要素的生产率,为经济增长提供了新动力。由此可见,数字经济能够显著促进经济增长,然而由于潜藏的数字安全隐患,二者间呈倒U型作用关系。分维度回归结果表明,数字产业化对经济增长的促进效应最强,数字基础设施次之。在此基础上,通过构建市场潜能指数来衡量统一大市场的建设水平,并以此作为中介变量分析数字经济对经济增长的作用机制。数字经济会通过促进国内统一大市场的形成为中国经济增长赋能。异质性分析显示,数字经济对经济增长的促进效应在市场化水平、政策出台数量和时段、创新能力、人力资本水平及资源配置能力等方面均存在差异,数字经济能够对资源禀赋不佳的地区“补短板”“纠错配”,从而减缓其对经济增长的消极影响,具有一定的普惠特征。研究结论可以为推动统一大市场建设、促进经济增长提供经验证据和有益的启示。