Early warning method for thermal runaway of lithium-ion batteries under thermal abuse condition based on online electrochemical impedance monitoring

Early warning of thermal runaway(TR)of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs)is a significant challenge in current application scenarios.Timely and effective TR early warning technology is urgently required considering the current fire safety situation of LIBs.In this work,we report an early warning method of TR with online electrochemical impedance spectroscopy(EIS)monitoring,which overcomes the shortcomings of warning methods based on traditional signals such as temperature,gas,and pressure with obvious delay and high cost.With in-situ data acquisition through accelerating rate calorimeter(ARC)-EIS test,the crucial features of TR were extracted using the RReliefF algorithm.TR mechanisms corresponding to the features at specific frequencies were analyzed.Finally,a three-level warning strategy for single battery,series module,and parallel module was formulated,which can successfully send out an early warning signal ahead of the self-heating temperature of battery under thermal abuse condition.The technology can provide a reliable basis for the timely intervention of battery thermal management and fire protection systems and is expected to be applied to electric vehicles and energy storage devices to realize early warning and improve battery safety.

Ultrafast Response and Threshold Adjustable Intelligent Thermoelectric Systems for Next‑Generation Self‑Powered Remote IoT Fire Warning

Fire warning is vital to human life,economy and ecology.However,the development of effective warning systems faces great challenges of fast response,adjustable threshold and remote detecting.Here,we propose an intelligent self-powered remote IoT fire warning system,by employing single-walled carbon nanotube/titanium carbide thermoelectric composite films.The flexible films,prepared by a convenient solution mixing,display p-type characteristic with excellent high-temperature stability,flame retardancy and TE(power factor of 239.7±15.8μW m^(-1) K^(-2))performances.The comprehensive morphology and structural analyses shed light on the underlying mechanisms.And the assembled TE devices(TEDs)exhibit fast fire warning with adjustable warning threshold voltages(1–10 mV).Excitingly,an ultrafast fire warning response time of~0.1 s at 1 mV threshold voltage is achieved,rivaling many state-of-the-art systems.Furthermore,TE fire warning systems reveal outstanding stability after 50 repeated cycles and desired durability even undergoing 180 days of air exposure.Finally,a TED-based wireless intelligent fire warning system has been developed by coupling an amplifier,analogto-digital converter and Bluetooth module.By combining TE characteristics,high-temperature stability and flame retardancy with wireless IoT signal transmission,TE-based hybrid system developed here is promising for next-generation self-powered remote IoT fire warning applications.

Method for rapid warning and activity concentration estimates in online waterγ-spectrometry systems

Onlineγ-spectrometry systems for inland waters,most of which extract samples in situ and in real time,are able to produce reliable activity concentration measurements for waterborne radionuclides only when they are distributed relatively uniformly and enter into a steady-state diffusion regime in the measurement chamber.To protect residents’health and ensure the safety of the living environment,better timeliness is required for this measurement method.To address this issue,this study established a mathematical model of the online waterγ-spectrometry system so that rapid warning and activity estimates can be obtained for water under non-steady-state(NSS)conditions.In addition,the detection efficiency of the detector for radionuclides during the NSS diffusion process was determined by applying the computational fluid dynamics technique in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations.On this basis,a method was developed that allowed the online waterγ-spectrometry system to provide rapid warning and activity concentration estimates for radionuclides in water.Subsequent analysis of the NSS-mode measurements of^(40)K radioactive solutions with different activity concentrations determined the optimum warning threshold and measurement time for producing accurate activity concentration estimates for radionuclides.The experimental results show that the proposed NSS measurement method is able to give warning and yield accurate activity concentration estimates for radionuclides 55.42 and 69.42 min after the entry of a 10 Bq/L^(40)K radioactive solution into the measurement chamber,respectively.These times are much shorter than the 90 min required by the conventional measurement method.Furthermore,the NSS measurement method allows the measurement system to give rapid(within approximately 15 min)warning when the activity concentrations of some radionuclides reach their respective limits stipulated in the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality of the WHO,suggesting that this method considerably enhances the warning capacity of in situ online waterγ-spectrometry systems.

Effect of preload forces on multidimensional signal dynamic behaviours for battery early safety warning

Providing early safety warning for batteries in real-world applications is challenging.In this study,comprehensive thermal abuse experiments are conducted to clarify the multidimensional signal evolution of battery failure under various preload forces.The time-sequence relationship among expansion force,voltage,and temperature during thermal abuse under five categorised stages is revealed.Three characteristic peaks are identified for the expansion force,which correspond to venting,internal short-circuiting,and thermal runaway.In particular,an abnormal expansion force signal can be detected at temperatures as low as 42.4°C,followed by battery thermal runaway in approximately 6.5 min.Moreover,reducing the preload force can improve the effectiveness of the early-warning method via the expansion force.Specifically,reducing the preload force from 6000 to 1000 N prolongs the warning time(i.e.,227 to 398 s)before thermal runaway is triggered.Based on the results,a notable expansion force early-warning method is proposed that can successfully enable early safety warning approximately 375 s ahead of battery thermal runaway and effectively prevent failure propagation with module validation.This study provides a practical reference for the development of timely and accurate early-warning strategies as well as guidance for the design of safer battery systems.

Comparing 11 early warning scores and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department

BACKGROUND:This study aimed to evaluate the discriminatory performance of 11 vital sign-based early warning scores(EWSs)and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department(ED).METHODS:We performed a retrospective study on consecutive adult patients with an infection over 3 months in a public ED in Hong Kong.The primary outcome was sepsis(Sepsis-3 definition)within 48 h of ED presentation.Using c-statistics and the DeLong test,we compared 11 EWSs,including the National Early Warning Score 2(NEWS2),Modified Early Warning Score,and Worthing Physiological Scoring System(WPS),etc.,and three shock indices(the shock index[SI],modified shock index[MSI],and diastolic shock index[DSI]),with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome(SIRS)and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(qSOFA)in predicting the primary outcome,intensive care unit admission,and mortality at different time points.RESULTS:We analyzed 601 patients,of whom 166(27.6%)developed sepsis.NEWS2 had the highest point estimate(area under the receiver operating characteristic curve[AUROC]0.75,95%CI 0.70-0.79)and was significantly better than SIRS,qSOFA,other EWSs and shock indices,except WPS,at predicting the primary outcome.However,the pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS2≥5 for the prediction of sepsis were 0.45(95%CI 0.37-0.52)and 0.88(95%CI 0.85-0.91),respectively.The discriminatory performance of all EWSs and shock indices declined when used to predict mortality at a more remote time point.CONCLUSION:NEWS2 compared favorably with other EWSs and shock indices in early sepsis prediction but its low sensitivity at the usual cut-off point requires further modification for sepsis screening.

Identification of Early Warning Signals of Infectious Diseases in Hospitals by Integrating Clinical Treatment and Disease Prevention

The global incidence of infectious diseases has increased in recent years,posing a significant threat to human health.Hospitals typically serve as frontline institutions for detecting infectious diseases.However,accurately identifying warning signals of infectious diseases in a timely manner,especially emerging infectious diseases,can be challenging.Consequently,there is a pressing need to integrate treatment and disease prevention data to conduct comprehensive analyses aimed at preventing and controlling infectious diseases within hospitals.This paper examines the role of medical data in the early identification of infectious diseases,explores early warning technologies for infectious disease recognition,and assesses monitoring and early warning mechanisms for infectious diseases.We propose that hospitals adopt novel multidimensional early warning technologies to mine and analyze medical data from various systems,in compliance with national strategies to integrate clinical treatment and disease prevention.Furthermore,hospitals should establish institution-specific,clinical-based early warning models for infectious diseases to actively monitor early signals and enhance preparedness for infectious disease prevention and control.

ARHCS (Automatic Rainfall Half-Life Cluster System): A Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) Using Cluster Analysis and Automatic Threshold Definition

A significant portion of Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) relies on the definition of operational thresholds and the monitoring of cumulative rainfall for alert issuance. These thresholds can be obtained in various ways, but most often they are based on previous landslide data. This approach introduces several limitations. For instance, there is a requirement for the location to have been previously monitored in some way to have this type of information recorded. Another significant limitation is the need for information regarding the location and timing of incidents. Despite the current ease of obtaining location information (GPS, drone images, etc.), the timing of the event remains challenging to ascertain for a considerable portion of landslide data. Concerning rainfall monitoring, there are multiple ways to consider it, for instance, examining accumulations over various intervals (1 h, 6 h, 24 h, 72 h), as well as in the calculation of effective rainfall, which represents the precipitation that actually infiltrates the soil. However, in the vast majority of cases, both the thresholds and the rain monitoring approach are defined manually and subjectively, relying on the operators’ experience. This makes the process labor-intensive and time-consuming, hindering the establishment of a truly standardized and rapidly scalable methodology on a large scale. In this work, we propose a Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) based on the concept of rainfall half-life and the determination of thresholds using Cluster Analysis and data inversion. The system is designed to be applied in extensive monitoring networks, such as the one utilized by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.

Street Lamp Status Warning System Based on Internet of Things Technology

This paper proposes a street light warning system based on Internet of Things(IoT)technology,which uses cameras to detect moving targets such as vehicles and pedestrians around the system and adjust the brightness of street lights according to road conditions to reduce unnecessary power waste.The system has a mature self-fault detection mechanism and is equipped with a wireless communication device for data exchange and timely communication with the host computer terminal.The intelligent street lamp system in this paper can be used to reduce the occurrence of pedestrian and vehicle accidents at intersections,and at the same time reduce the consumption of manpower and material resources for street lamp troubleshooting,to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction.

Effectiveness of Combined Application of Shock Index and Early Warning Scoring System in Patients with Acute Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage

Objective:To explore the effect of the combined application of the Shock Index(SI)and the Early Warning Score(EWS)in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding.Methods:Seventy patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding admitted to a hospital from June 2022 to May 2024 were selected and randomly divided into two groups:the control group and the observation group,with 35 patients in each group.The control group received conventional emergency care measures,while the observation group received SI combined with NEWS emergency care measures.The treatment effects in both groups were compared.Results:The observation group had shorter waiting times for consultation(4.45±1.59 minutes),intravenous access establishment(6.79±2.52 minutes),hemostasis time(4.41±1.52 hours),and hospital stays(8.39±2.13 days)compared to the control group,which had times of 5.46±1.34 minutes,8.41±2.16 minutes,5.16±1.47 hours,and 10.26±2.98 days,respectively.The differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).Before management,there were no significant differences in the levels of hemoglobin,prealbumin,and serum protein between the two groups(P>0.05).However,after systematic emergency management,the serum indexes in both groups significantly improved,with the observation group showing greater improvement than the control group,and these differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).In the observation group,only one case of cardiovascular complications occurred during the rescue period,with an incidence rate of 2.86%.In contrast,the control group experienced eight cases of complications,including hemorrhagic shock,anemia,multi-organ failure,cardiovascular complications,and gastrointestinal rebleeding,with an incidence rate of 22.85%.The difference between the groups was statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion:The application of SI combined with EWS emergency care measures in patients with acute gastrointestinal hemorrhage can effectively improve serum indexes,shorten resuscitation time and hospital stay,and reduce the risk of complications such as hemorrhagic shock,anemia,infection,multi-organ failure,cardiovascular complications,acute renal failure,and gastrointestinal rebleeding.This approach has positive clinical application value.

Temperature‑Arousing Self‑Powered Fire Warning E‑Textile Based on p-n Segment Coaxial Aerogel Fibers for Active Fire Protection in Firefighting Clothing

Firefighting protective clothing is a crucial protective equipment for firefighters to minimize skin burn and ensure safety firefighting operation and rescue mission.A recent increasing concern is to develop self-powered fire warning materials that can be incorporated into the firefighting clothing to achieve active fire protection for firefighters before the protective clothing catches fire on fireground.However,it is still a challenge to facilely design and manufacture thermoelectric(TE)textile(TET)-based fire warning electronics with dynamic surface conformability and breathability.Here,we develop an alternate coaxial wet-spinning strategy to continuously produce alternating p/n-type TE aerogel fibers involving n-type Ti_(3)C_(2)T_(x)MXene and p-type MXene/SWCNT-COOH as core materials,and tough aramid nanofiber as protective shell,which simultaneously ensure the flexibility and high-efficiency TE power generation.With such alternating p/n-type TE fibers,TET-based self-powered fire warning sensors with high mechanical stability and wearability are successfully fabricated through stitching the alternating p-n segment TE fibers into aramid fabric.The results indicate that TET-based fire warning electronics containing 50 p-n pairs produce the open-circuit voltage of 7.5 mV with a power density of 119.79 nW cm-2 at a temperature difference of 300℃.The output voltage signal is then calculated as corresponding surface temperature of firefighting clothing based on a linear relationship between TE voltage and temperature.The fire alarm response time and flame-retardant properties are further displayed.Such self-powered fire warning electronics are true textiles that offer breathability and compatibility with body movement,demonstrating their potential application in firefighting clothing.

Ecological risk assessment and early warning of heavy metal cumulation in the soils near the Luanchuan molybdenum polymetallic mine concentration area,Henan Province,central China

The Luanchuan molybdenum polymetallic mine concentration area is rich in mineral resources and has a long history of mining.The environmental impact of long-term mining activities cannot be ignored.It is of great significance to study the ecological risk and the accumulation trends of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas for scientific prevention and control of heavy metal pollution.Taking the Taowanbeigou River Basin in the mine concentration area as the research object,the ecological pollution risk and cumulative effect of heavy metals in the soil of the basin were studied by using the comprehensive pollution index method,potential ecological risk assessment method and geoaccumulation index method.On this basis,the cumulative exceeding years of specific heavy metals were predicted by using the early warning model.The comprehensive potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the soil near the Luanchuan mine concentration area is moderate,and the single element Cd is the main ecological risk factor,with a contribution rate of 53.6%.The overall cumulative degrees of Cu and Pb in the soil are“none-moderate”,Zn and Cd are moderate,Mo has reached an extremely strong cumulative level,Hg,As and Cr risks are not obvious,and the overall cumulative risks order is Mo>Cd>Zn>Cu>Pb>Hg.According to the current accumulation rate and taking the risk screening values for soil contamination of agricultural land as the reference standard,the locations over standard rates of Cu,Zn and Cd will exceed 78%in 90years,and the over standard rate of Pb will reach approximately 57%in 200 years.The cumulative exceeding standard periods of As,Cr and Hg are generally long,which basically indicates that these elements do not pose a significant potential threat to the ecological environment.Mining activities will accelerate the accumulation of heavy metals in soil.With the continuous development of mining activities,the potential pollution risk of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas will also increase.

Identification of Monitoring Organ in Bivalves for Early Warning of Paralytic Shellfish Toxins Accumulation

Bivalve farming plays a dominant role in mariculture in China.Paralytic shellfish toxins(PSTs)can be accumulated in bivalves and cause poisoning the consumers.A sensitive detection of PSTs can provide early warning to decrease poisoning events in bivalve consuming.PSTs are traditionally examined using the whole soft-tissues.However,PSTs accumulation varies dramatically in different tissues of bivalves.Some tough tissues/organs(such as mantle),which account for a large proportion of the total soft body,exhibit a lower accumulation of PSTs and make the toxin extraction time-and reagent-consuming,potentially decreasing the accuracy and sensitivity of PSTs monitoring in bivalves.To develop a sensitive and cost-effective approach for PSTs examination in massively farmed bivalves,we fed three commercially important bivalves,Yesso scallop Patinopecten yessoensis,Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas,and blue mussel Mytilus edulis with PSTs-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella,and detected PSTs concentration in different tissues.For all three bivalve species,the digestive gland accumulated much more PSTs than other tissues,and the digestive gland’s toxicity was significantly correlated with the PSTs toxicity of the whole soft-tissues,with r^(2)=0.94,0.92,and 0.94 for Yesso scallop,Pacific oyster,and blue mussel,respectively.When the toxicity of the whole soft-tissues reached 80μgSTXeq(100g)^(−1),the regulatory limit for commercial shellfish,the digestive gland’s toxicity reached 571.48,498.90,and 859.20μgSTXeq(100g)^(−1) in Yesso scallop,Pacific oyster,and blue mussel,respectively.Our results indicate that digestive gland can be used for the sensitive and cost-effective monitoring of PSTs in bivalves.

Analysis of rockburst mechanism and warning based on microseismic moment tensors and dynamic Bayesian networks

One of the major factors inhibiting the construction of deep underground projects is the risk posed by rockbursts.A study was conducted on the access tunnel of the Shuangjiangkou hydropower station to determine the evolutionary mechanism of microfractures within the surrounding rock mass during rockburst development and develop a rockburst warning model.The study area was chosen through the combination of field studies with an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of microseismic(MS)events.The moment tensor inversion method was adopted to study rockburst mechanism,and a dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)was applied to investigating the sensitivity of MS source parameters for rockburst warnings.A MS multivariable rockburst warning model was proposed and validated using two case studies.The results indicate that fractures in the surrounding rock mass during the development of strain-structure rockbursts initially show shear failure and are then followed by tensile failure.The effectiveness of the DBN-based rockburst warning model was demonstrated using self-validation and K-fold cross-validation.Moment magnitude and source radius are the most sensitive factors based on an investigation of the influence on the parent and child nodes in the model,which can serve as important standards for rockburst warnings.The proposed rockburst warning model was found to be effective when applied to two actual projects.

Deformation warning index for reinforced concrete dam based on structural health monitoring data and numerical simulation

The material mechanical parameters of the dam body and foundation will change when a dam is reinforced during the aging process.This causes significant changes in the structural state of the project and makes it difficult to ensure its structural safety.In this study,a new deformation warning index for reinforced concrete dams was developed according to the prototype monitoring data,statistical models,three-dimensional finite element model(FEM)numerical simulation,and the critical conditions of the dam structure.A statistical model was established to separate the water pressure component.Then,a three-dimensional FEM of the reinforced concrete dam was constructed to simulate the water pressure component.Furthermore,the deformation components that affected the mechanical parameters of the dam under the same amount of reservoir water level change were separated and quantified accurately.In addition,the method for inversion of comprehensive mechanical parameters after dam reinforcement was used.The influence mechanisms of the deformation behavior of concrete dams under the reservoir water level and temperature changes were investigated.A new deformation warning index was developed by combining the forward-simulated critical water pressure component and temperature component in the period of extreme temperature decrease with the aging component separated by the statistical model.The new deformation warning index considers the structural state of the dam before and after reinforcement and links the structural strength criterion and the deformation evolution mechanisms.It provides a theoretical foundation and decision support for long-term service and operation management of reinforced dams.

Visualization and early warning analysis of damage degree of surrounding rock mass in underground powerhouse

Based on the underground powerhouse of Shuangjiangkou hydropower station,Octree theory is adopted to define the indices of the microseismic(MS)spatial aggregation degree and the deviation values of MS count and energy.The relationship between the MS multiple parameters and surrounding rock mass instability is established from three aspects:time,space,and strength.Supplemented by the center frequency of the signal evolution characteristics,A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and the evolution trend of the MS event center frequency are constructed to quantitatively describe the early warning state of the surrounding rock mass instability.The results show that the multilevel tree structure and voxels generated based on the Octree theory fit relatively well with the set of MS points in threedimensional space.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on MS spatial aggregation and MS count and energy deviation values enables three-dimensional visualization of the potential damage area and damage extent of the surrounding rock mass.The warning time and potential damage zone quantified are highly consistent with the characteristics of MS precursors,with wide recognition and field investigation results,which fully validate the rationality and applicability of the proposed method.These findings can provide references for the early warning of surrounding rock mass instability in similar underground engineering.

Early Warning of Commercial Housing Market Based on Bagging-GWO-SVM

A number of risks exist in commercial housing,and it is critical for the government,the real estate industry,and consumers to establish an objective early warning indicator system for commercial housing risks and to conduct research regarding its measurement and early warning.In this paper,we examine the commodity housing market and construct a risk index for the commodity housing market at three levels:market level,the real estate industry and the national economy.Using the Bootstrap aggregating-grey wolf optimizer-support vector machine(Bagging-GWO-SVM)model after synthesizing the risk index by applying the CRITIC objective weighting method,the commercial housing market can be monitored for risks and early warnings.Based on the empirical study,the following conclusions have been drawn:(1)The commodity housing market risk index accurately reflect the actual risk situation in Tianjin;(2)Based on comparisons with other models,the Bagging-GWO-SVM model provides higher accuracy in early warning.A final set of suggestions is presented based on the empirical study.

Intelligent identification and real-time warning method of diverse complex events in horizontal well fracturing

The existing approaches for identifying events in horizontal well fracturing are difficult, time-consuming, inaccurate, and incapable of real-time warning. Through improvement of data analysis and deep learning algorithm, together with the analysis on data and information of horizontal well fracturing in shale gas reservoirs, this paper presents a method for intelligent identification and real-time warning of diverse complex events in horizontal well fracturing. An identification model for "point" events in fracturing is established based on the Att-BiLSTM neural network, along with the broad learning system (BLS) and the BP neural network, and it realizes the intelligent identification of the start/end of fracturing, formation breakdown, instantaneous shut-in, and other events, with an accuracy of over 97%. An identification model for "phase" events in fracturing is established based on enhanced Unet++ network, and it realizes the intelligent identification of pump ball, pre-acid treatment, temporary plugging fracturing, sand plugging, and other events, with an error of less than 0.002. Moreover, a real-time prediction model for fracturing pressure is built based on the Att-BiLSTM neural network, and it realizes the real-time warning of diverse events in fracturing. The proposed method can provide an intelligent, efficient and accurate identification of events in fracturing to support the decision-making.

Dis-NDVW: Distributed Network Asset Detection and Vulnerability Warning Platform

With the rapid development of Internet technology,the issues of network asset detection and vulnerability warning have become hot topics of concern in the industry.However,most existing detection tools operate in a single-node mode and cannot parallelly process large-scale tasks,which cannot meet the current needs of the industry.To address the above issues,this paper proposes a distributed network asset detection and vulnerability warning platform(Dis-NDVW)based on distributed systems and multiple detection tools.Specifically,this paper proposes a distributed message sub-scription and publication system based on Zookeeper and Kafka,which endows Dis-NDVW with the ability to parallelly process large-scale tasks.Meanwhile,Dis-NDVW combines the RangeAssignor,RoundRobinAssignor,and StickyAssignor algorithms to achieve load balancing of task nodes in a distributed detection cluster.In terms of a large-scale task processing strategy,this paper proposes a task partitioning method based on First-In-First-Out(FIFO)queue.This method realizes the parallel operation of task producers and task consumers by dividing pending tasks into different queues according to task types.To ensure the data reliability of the task cluster,Dis-NDVW provides a redundant storage strategy for master-slave partition replicas.In terms of distributed storage,Dis-NDVW utilizes a distributed elastic storage service based on ElasticSearch to achieve distributed storage and efficient retrieval of big data.Experimental verification shows that Dis-NDVW can better meet the basic requirements of ultra-large-scale detection tasks.

Wind Turbine Spindle Operating State Recognition and Early Warning Driven by SCADA Data

An operating condition recognition approach of wind turbine spindle is proposed based on supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)normal data drive.Firstly,the SCADA raw data of wind turbine under full working conditions are cleaned and feature extracted.Then the spindle speed is employed as the output parameter,and the single and combined normal behavior model of the wind turbine spindle is constructed sequentially with the preprocessed data,with the evaluation indexes selected as the optimal model.Finally,calculating the spindle operation status index according to the slidingwindowprinciple,ascertaining the threshold value for identifying the abnormal spindle operation status by the hypothesis of small probability event,analyzing the 2.5 MW wind turbine SCADA data froma domestic wind field as a sample,The results show that the fault warning time of the early warningmodel is 5.7 h ahead of the actual fault occurrence time,as well as the identification and early warning of abnormal wind turbine spindle operationwithout abnormal data or a priori knowledge of related faults.

Pattern changes and early risk warning of Spartina alterniflora invasion:a study of mangrove-dominated wetlands in northeastern Fujian,China

The exotic saltmarsh cordgrass,Spartina alterniflora(Loisel)Peterson&Saarela,is one of the important causes for the extensive destruction of mangroves in China due to its invasive nature.The species has rapidly spread wildly across coastal wetlands,challenging resource managers for control of its further spread.An investigation of S.alterniflora invasion and associated ecological risk is urgent in China's coastal wetlands.In this study,an ecological risk invasive index system was developed based on the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework.Predictions were made of'warning degrees':zero warning and light,moderate,strong,and extreme warning,by developing a back propagation(BP)artificial neural network model for coastal wetlands in eastern Fujian Province.Our results suggest that S.alterniflora mainly has invaded Kandelia candel beaches and farmlands with clustered distributions.An early warning indicator system assessed the ecological risk of the invasion and showed a ladder-like distribution from high to low extending from the urban area in the central inland region with changes spread to adjacent areas.Areas of light warning and extreme warning accounted for43%and 7%,respectively,suggesting the BP neural network model is reliable prediction of the ecological risk of S.alterniflora invasion.The model predicts that distribution pattern of this invasive species will change little in the next 10 years.However,the invaded patches will become relatively more concentrated without warning predicted.We suggest that human factors such as land use activities may partially determine changes in warning degree.Our results emphasize that an early warning system for S.alterniflora invasion in China's eastern coastal wetlands is significant,and comprehensive control measures are needed,particularly for K.candel beach.