While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to nuclear proliferation and disarmament issues, traditional decision analysis assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A drama theoretic ap...While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to nuclear proliferation and disarmament issues, traditional decision analysis assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A drama theoretic approach is used to overcome these limiting assumptions： Drama Theory （DT） II allows global leaders and national security policy makers to engage in a rational-emotional process of re-defining international security negotiations （and their ＂positions＂ in them） Until agreement on a satisfactory nuclear non-proliferation resolution is reached. The 2009 nuclear energy negotiations between Iran and world powers are modeled with DT II and the Confrontation ManagerTM Decision Support System. By adjusting strategy and deriving transformative security policy, it is shown how international security can be achieved by promoting nuclear non-proliferation and resolving strategic conflict.展开更多
We put forth Drama Theory II （DT II） as a formal multiple participant decision making framework that can be used to systematically model complex security challenges, and advance the field of Sustainable Security Sys...We put forth Drama Theory II （DT II） as a formal multiple participant decision making framework that can be used to systematically model complex security challenges, and advance the field of Sustainable Security Systems Engineering. DT II is defined as a theory of ＂large world＂ pre-game communication and equilibrium selection. While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to resolve environmental conflicts and promote global security, traditional game theory assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A mathematical treatment of key drama theoretic concepts （i.e. positions, intentions, doubts and dilemmas） is provided. The dynamics of the drama theoretic process are discussed and the expected equilibrium set is derived. The fundamental theorem of drama theory is proven and all theoretical results are applied to promote sustainable security solutions. It is emphasized that DT II represents a flexible systems engineering technique to address time-sensitive, multi-faceted, and complex multiple participant negotiations.展开更多
The need to manage water resource within a holistic approach is crucial in Indonesia. Conflict situation which involves a variety of stakeholder needs an appropriate methodology to handle it. The purpose of this paper...The need to manage water resource within a holistic approach is crucial in Indonesia. Conflict situation which involves a variety of stakeholder needs an appropriate methodology to handle it. The purpose of this paper is to provide an integrated framework of a river basin pollution case in Indonesia. This research try to obtain an understanding of the complexity of inter-relationship between stakeholders of the Citarum River Basin and to give feasible recommendations based on a new developed integrated framework. We first describe the problem in a comprehensive way, then develop a framework to analyze the conflict. Next, we propose a general procedure to apply it, which we call Drama-theoretic Dilemma Analysis （DtDA）. After analyzing the conflicts that arise there between stakeholders using DtDA, we will show how to resolve the dilemmas by using holistic as well as intensive approaches. By applying DtDA in stakeholder analysis and resolving the dilemmas that arise in the interactions between them, we can identify barriers for collaboration.展开更多
The world post-9/11 is characterised by uncertainty, fear and suspicion. Psychological confrontations amplified by the mass media have even come to dominate physical engagements between warring parties. Drama theory p...The world post-9/11 is characterised by uncertainty, fear and suspicion. Psychological confrontations amplified by the mass media have even come to dominate physical engagements between warring parties. Drama theory provides a powerful framework for understanding these interactions in much the way that game theory was able to support strategy making by autonomous players in a less inter-connected era, A model of the ＇normal＇ process leading to dramatic resolution is an essential feature of the drama theory approach and is described here. However this process can be derailed or fail in many ways. This paper reviews many of these systemic pathologies and illustrates some Of them through consideration of three high-profile cases. The conclusion is that it is important to recognise and possibly to use pathological behavior as an element of a character＇s interaction strategy.展开更多
文摘While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to nuclear proliferation and disarmament issues, traditional decision analysis assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A drama theoretic approach is used to overcome these limiting assumptions： Drama Theory （DT） II allows global leaders and national security policy makers to engage in a rational-emotional process of re-defining international security negotiations （and their ＂positions＂ in them） Until agreement on a satisfactory nuclear non-proliferation resolution is reached. The 2009 nuclear energy negotiations between Iran and world powers are modeled with DT II and the Confrontation ManagerTM Decision Support System. By adjusting strategy and deriving transformative security policy, it is shown how international security can be achieved by promoting nuclear non-proliferation and resolving strategic conflict.
文摘We put forth Drama Theory II （DT II） as a formal multiple participant decision making framework that can be used to systematically model complex security challenges, and advance the field of Sustainable Security Systems Engineering. DT II is defined as a theory of ＂large world＂ pre-game communication and equilibrium selection. While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to resolve environmental conflicts and promote global security, traditional game theory assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A mathematical treatment of key drama theoretic concepts （i.e. positions, intentions, doubts and dilemmas） is provided. The dynamics of the drama theoretic process are discussed and the expected equilibrium set is derived. The fundamental theorem of drama theory is proven and all theoretical results are applied to promote sustainable security solutions. It is emphasized that DT II represents a flexible systems engineering technique to address time-sensitive, multi-faceted, and complex multiple participant negotiations.
文摘The need to manage water resource within a holistic approach is crucial in Indonesia. Conflict situation which involves a variety of stakeholder needs an appropriate methodology to handle it. The purpose of this paper is to provide an integrated framework of a river basin pollution case in Indonesia. This research try to obtain an understanding of the complexity of inter-relationship between stakeholders of the Citarum River Basin and to give feasible recommendations based on a new developed integrated framework. We first describe the problem in a comprehensive way, then develop a framework to analyze the conflict. Next, we propose a general procedure to apply it, which we call Drama-theoretic Dilemma Analysis （DtDA）. After analyzing the conflicts that arise there between stakeholders using DtDA, we will show how to resolve the dilemmas by using holistic as well as intensive approaches. By applying DtDA in stakeholder analysis and resolving the dilemmas that arise in the interactions between them, we can identify barriers for collaboration.
文摘The world post-9/11 is characterised by uncertainty, fear and suspicion. Psychological confrontations amplified by the mass media have even come to dominate physical engagements between warring parties. Drama theory provides a powerful framework for understanding these interactions in much the way that game theory was able to support strategy making by autonomous players in a less inter-connected era, A model of the ＇normal＇ process leading to dramatic resolution is an essential feature of the drama theory approach and is described here. However this process can be derailed or fail in many ways. This paper reviews many of these systemic pathologies and illustrates some Of them through consideration of three high-profile cases. The conclusion is that it is important to recognise and possibly to use pathological behavior as an element of a character＇s interaction strategy.
