A drifting trajectory prediction model based on object shape and stochastic mo-tion features

There is a huge demand to develop a method for marine search and rescue（SAR） operators automatically predicting the most probable searching area of the drifting object. This paper presents a novel drifting prediction model to improve the accuracy of the drifting trajectory computation of the sea-surface objects. First, a new drifting kinetic model based on the geometry characteristics of the objects is proposed that involves the effects of the object shape and stochastic motion features in addition to the traditional factors of wind and currents. Then, a computer simulation-based method is employed to analyze the stochastic motion features of the drifting objects, which is applied to estimate the uncertainty parameters of the stochastic factors of the drifting objects. Finally, the accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparison with the flume experimental results. It is shown that the proposed method can be used for various shape objects in the drifting trajectory prediction and the maritime search and rescue decision-making system.

Simulation design of fuze warhead system of air defense missile at very low altitude

A novel simulation method for fuze warhead system (FWS) at very low altitude flight is proposed to solve adaptability issues of the traditional one in the naval battle. Firstly, a simulation system framework is presented. Then the detailed implementation of a novel general fuze model, a novel sea echo model and a novel warhead dynamic effectiveness power field algorithm including the simulation system are presented. Finally, simulation results show good performance of the proposed method. The proposed method can simulate the echo signal when the complex fuze antennas detect target and the sea at the same time, and can truly reflect the target positions hit by the warhead fragments. The proposed method can solve the existing problems in the FWS simulation system.

Drift analysis of MH370 debris in the southern Indian Ocean

Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared on 8 March 2014, while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. A flaperon from the flight was found on Reunion Island in July 2015. Two more confirmed pieces of debris were found in Mauritius and Tanzania, and 19 unconfirmed items were found off Mozambique, South Africa, and Madagascar. Drift buoys originating from the designated underwater search area arrived in Reunion Island, Mauritius, and Tanzania. Some of these buoys took a similarly long time as did real debris to reach these destinations, following a heading northeast and then west. For the present study, a maritime object drift prediction model was developed. ＂High resolution surface currents, Stokes drift, and winds＂ were processed, and a series of model experiments were constructed. The predicted trajectories of the modeled objects were similar to the observed trajectories of the drift buoys. Many modeled objects drifted northward then westward, ending up in Reunion Island, Mauritius, and Tanzania with probabilities of 5%0, 5%0, and 19%o, respectively. At the end of the simulation, most objects were located near 10~S in the western Indian Ocean. There were significant differences between experiments with different leeway factors, possibly because of the influence of southeast trade winds. The north part of the underwater search area is most likely to be the crash site, because the predicted trajectories of objects originating here are consistent with the many pieces of debris found along the east coast of Africa and the absence of such findings on the west coast of Australia.