Urban growth scenario projection using heuristic cellular automata in arid areas considering the drought impact

Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection based on cellular automata(CA)models is important to achieve sustainable urban development in arid areas.We developed a new CA model using bat algorithm(BA)named bat algorithm-probability-of-occurrence-cellular automata(BA-POO-CA)model by considering drought constraint to accurately delineate urban growth patterns and project future scenarios of Urumqi City and its surrounding areas,located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.We calibrated the BA-POO-CA model for the drought-prone study area with 2000 and 2010 data and validated the model with 2010 and 2020 data,and finally projected its urban scenarios in 2030.The results showed that BA-POO-CA model yielded overall accuracy of 97.70%and figure-of-merits(FOMs)of 35.50%in 2010,and 97.70%and 26.70%in 2020,respectively.The inclusion of drought intensity factor improved the performance of BA-POO-CA model in terms of FOMs,with increases of 5.50%in 2010 and 7.90%in 2020 than the model excluding drought intensity factor.This suggested that the urban growth of Urumqi City was affected by drought,and therefore taking drought intensity factor into account would contribute to simulation accuracy.The BA-POO-CA model including drought intensity factor was used to project two possible scenarios(i.e.,business-as-usual(BAU)scenario and ecological scenario)in 2030.In the BAU scenario,the urban growth dominated mainly in urban fringe areas,especially in the northern part of Toutunhe District,Xinshi District,and Midong District.Using exceptional and extreme drought areas as a spatial constraint,the urban growth was mainly concentrated in the"main urban areas-Changji-Hutubi"corridor urban pattern in the ecological scenario.The results of this research can help to adjust urban planning and development policies.Our model is readily applicable to simulating urban growth and future scenarios in global arid areas such as Northwest China and Africa.

Spatiotemporal changes of gross primary productivity and its response to drought in the Mongolian Plateau under climate change

Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the Mongolian Plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on drought trends in Xinjiang, China

The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.

Study on the Correlation Between Leaf Area and Drought Resistance in Different Alfalfa Varieties

[Objective] This study was to reveal the correlation between leaf area and drought resistance in different varieties of alfalfa.[Method] Using various alfalfa varieties as experimental materials,the drought resistance of leaves of drought-stressed alfalfa plants was assessed by measuring the content of free proline for analyzing its correlation with leaf area.[Result] Under drought condition,the drought resistance of alfalfa is directly related to leaf area in a positive correlation.[Conclusion] Leaf area could be used as an institutional assistant index to reflect the resistance of different alfalfa varieties.

Using leaf area index(LAI) to assess vegetation response to drought in Yunnan province of China

Climatic extremes such as drought have becoming a severe climate-related problem in many regions all over the world that can induce anomalies in vegetation condition. Growth and CO2 uptake by plants are constrained to a large extent by drought.Therefore, it is important to understand the spatial and temporal responses of vegetation to drought across the various land cover types and different regions. Leaf area index(LAI) derived from Global Land Surface Satellite(GLASS) data was used to evaluate the response of vegetation to drought occurrence across Yunnan Province, China(2001-2010). The meteorological drought was assessed based on Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)values. Pearson's correlation coefficients between LAI and SPI were examined across several timescales within six sub-regions of the Yunnan. Further, the drought-prone area was identified based on LAI anomaly values. Lag and cumulative effects of lack of precipitation on vegetation were evident, with significant correlations found using 3-, 6-, 9-and 12-month timescale. We found 9-month timescale has higher correlations compared to another timescale.Approximately 29.4% of Yunnan's area was classified as drought-prone area, based on the LAI anomaly values. Most of this drought-prone area was distributed in the mountainous region of Yunnan.From the research, it is evident that GLASS LAI can be effectively used as an indicator for assessing drought conditions and it provide valuable information for drought risk defense and preparedness.

The Response of Anomalous Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Patterns Related to Drought and Flood in Southern China to Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from July to August in 1961-2022,it is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of the vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)anomaly circulation pattern and the VIMF convergence(VIMFC)anomaly in southern China in drought and flood years,and the VIMFC,a physical quantity,can be regarded as an indicative physical factor for the"strong signal"of drought and flood in southern China.Specifically,in drought years,the VIMF anomaly in southern China is an anticyclonic circulation pattern and the divergence characteristics of the VIMFC are prominent,while those are opposite in flood years.Based on the SST anomaly in the typical draught year of 2022 in southern China and the SST deviation distribution characteristics of abnormal draught and flood years from 1961 to 2022,five SST high impact areas(i.e.,the North Pacific Ocean,Northwest Pacific Ocean,Southwest Pacific Ocean,Indian Ocean,and East Pacific Ocean)are selected via the correlation analysis of VIMFC and the global SST in the preceding months(May and June)and in the study period(July and August)in 1961-2022,and their contributions to drought and flood in southern China are quantified.Our study reveals not only the persistent anomalous variation of SST in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but also its impact on the pattern of moisture transport.Furthermore,it can be discovered from the positive and negative phase fitting of SST that the SST composite flow field in high impact areas can exhibit two types of anomalous moisture transport structures that are opposite to each other,namely an anticyclonic(cyclonic)circulation pattern anomaly in southern China and the coastal areas of east China.These two types of opposite anomalous moisture transport structures can not only drive the formation of drought(flood)in southern China but also exert its influence on the persistent development of the extreme weather.

Analysis of Drought Characteristics in the Inland Areas of Shandong Province from 1960 to 2013

Drought is one of the major meteorological disasters affecting the climate in China.In this paper,the interannual variation and seasonal distribution changes of drought at different time scales were analyzed with the standardized precipitation index( SPI) as the drought evaluation criterion to the precipitation data of the 5 meteorological stations of Jinan,Tai'an,Yiyuan,Shen County and Yanzhou from 1960 to 2013.The results showed that:(1) the frequency of drought was low in spring and summer in inland areas of Shandong Province,while autumn had frequent occurrences of moderate drought,and winter had frequent occurrences of heavy and severe droughts.(2) In the 1960 s,1980 s and early 21^(st) century,the number of droughts increased significantly,and the SPI values showed a significant decrease.(3) The 3-month time scale range was wide,during which the frequency of occurrence was high.The trend of SPI changes at the 12-month time scale was affected by the accumulation of antecedent precipitation,and the change was slow.The research results can provide a scientific reference for arid climate analysis and water resources management in agriculture and production in inland areas of Shandong Province.

Physical Effectiveness of Soil and Water Conservation Technologies in Drought Prone Areas of Western and Central Uganda

The effect of soil and water conservation （SWC） practices on controlling surface runoff and soil loss was studied in drought prone banana growing areas of Uganda, during the two major rainy seasons of 2014. The study was conducted at two sites-- Ntungamo （Southwest） and Sembabule （Central）, with comparable slopes of about 13%-25%. The treatments included mulch, manure, manure ＋ mulch and a control with no conservation. Results indicated that conservation practices of mulch and manure ＋ mulch significantly reduced surface runoff and soil loss by about 72%-85%, when compared to farmers＇ up-and-down cultivation practice （control）. It was also observed that significantly greater amounts of soil loss occurred from manure and control plots than the ones with mulch. Thus, the combination of manure and mulch is recommended for uptake by crop farmers in the study areas, if they are to overcome drought stress and adapt to changes in climate. More research is needed to quantify nutrient losses resulting from runoff under the different SWC techniques. Modeling such effects is essential in assessing the impacts of SWC practices on soil and crop productivity.

Evaluation of Drought Hazard Area of GharehAghaj Basin in Iran, Using GIS

In GharehAghaj basin drought has the most profound effect on the way of living and regional economy. Drought Hazard by nature is a result of interrelated parameters concerned. The objective of this paper presents a model to assess hazard of drought using the Geographical Information System (GIS). The data analyzed have been gathered from the records, reports and maps published by the governmental offices of Iran. Various drought hazard indicators have different severity classification in different models. The drought hazard indicator maps take into account the meteorological, hydrological, physical and socioeconomic characteristics that related to drought hazard. Each of the hazard indicator maps and also final hazard map are classified into 4 hazard classes of drought: mild, moderate, severe and very severe. The final hazard classes were defined on the basis of hazard scores arrived at by assigning the appropriate attributes to the indicators and the final hazard map was prepared by overlaying different hazard indicator maps in the GIS, deploying the new model. The final Hazard Map shows that moderate hazard areas (89.87% of the basin) are much widespread than areas under severe hazard (10.13% of the basin) which are observed in the Southeast of the region.

Water Consumption and Use Efficiency of Main Crops on Semi-drought Area of Western Liaoning Province

The laws of water consumption in corn,peanuts and millet on the semi-drought area of western Liaoning Province were studied through the FAO-Penman Monteith method and the water balance method.Among three corps,the amount of the day water demand,the whole growth period water demand and the soil water deficit of corn were all the largest.At the same time,its degree of agreement between the water demand and the level of precipitation was the worst,and its average in crop coefficient was larger.The amount of th...

海温异常对长江流域夏季典型旱涝的影响研究

为研究长江流域夏季旱涝特征及其与海温异常之间的关联性,基于中国326个气象站降水量、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,采用合成分析、EOF分解等方法,分析了长江流域夏季典型旱涝年的降水分布、同期大气环流及前期海温特征,并以2018年为例,初步揭示了2018年前期海温异常对大气环流的可能影响。结果表明:①长江流域夏季典型旱年,仅嘉陵江和岷沱江会表现出局部偏涝,全国为典型的Ⅰ类雨型,多雨区位于黄河流域及以北地区。前期冬季赤道太平洋表现出类拉尼娜的东冷西暖分布,同时黑潮区海温偏低,西风漂流区海温偏暖。受多海域协同作用,同期欧亚环流场上自西北向东南呈现出“+-+”三极型分布,东亚地区为自北向南“-+-”的EAP负位相。长江流域典型涝年,全国多为典型的Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类雨型,环流及海温呈现出相反特征。②2018年为典型的长江中下游偏旱年,仅在岷沱江降水偏多近3成,为历史第4多,与长江流域夏季降水的主模态正位相类似,解释方差达24%。③2018年前冬出现弱拉尼娜、春末夏初西风漂流区异常偏暖、NAT异常正位相,三者共同作用,使得东亚副热带西风急流偏北,东亚沿岸出现EAP负位相,大陆热低压明显偏强,东亚夏季风为1961年以来最强,同时副高脊线最北,造成夏季降水主雨带北推至华北、西北地区,岷沱江、嘉陵江异常多,而长江中下游异常少,为典型的Ⅰ类雨型。研究成果可为长江流域旱涝预测、水资源调度提供参考。

基于水库旱限水位的大型灌区水资源空间均衡优化调控

由于自然地理特征和经济社会活动的差异,大型灌区水资源分布和利用在时空上是不平衡的,尤其是受水文气象波动影响的农业灌溉供水,需要借助水利工程进行水资源空间均衡调控。目前按典型水平年制订的常规调配水方案无法展现水资源空间均衡状态在年内的变化响应过程,也无法考虑水资源在年际间调配的需求。鉴此,本文基于灌区水资源系统空间均衡评价模型和半分布式水资源系统模拟模型,以干旱年缺水时段平均水资源系统空间均衡度最大为目标,以骨干水库分期分级旱限水位和灌区分单元分用水户限供比例为调控变量,运用遗传算法开展大型灌区水资源系统空间均衡优化调控研究。淠河灌区应用结果显示:骨干水库的分级分期旱限水位能够实现水资源在年内和年际时间上的均衡调节,而分单元分用水户的限制供水措施能够使水资源在空间上得到合理配置。二者共同作用能更好地协调灌区供需水在时程分布和空间均衡间的关系,相较于运行现状能大幅提升水资源系统空间均衡度,增强灌区的可持续发展能力,为基于旱限水位的复杂水资源系统管理和应用提供新的思路。

不同气象干旱指数在北疆绿洲农业区适用性分析

选取北疆绿洲农业区11个气象站1961—2020年的数据,按月尺度计算降水距平百分率(PA)、标准化降水指数(SPI)、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、K指数和气象干旱综合指数(MCI)5种干旱指数,通过比较这些指数的相关性、不同等级的干旱发生频率以及在典型干旱年份的识别能力,分析各指数在该区域的适用性。结果表明,PA和SPI对降水亏缺有敏感的反应,但对温度的关联较弱,未充分考虑增温对干旱的影响;MCI与温度和降水的关联均较弱,倾向于低估重旱和特旱;SPEI和K指数与温度和降水均有较好的关联,但K指数过多地报告中度至重度干旱,而SPEI则全面考虑了温度和降水对干旱的综合影响,其结果更符合实际情况。由于SPEI计算蒸散发采用的Thornthwaite方法可能高估了温度对干旱的影响,在降水显著偏少、温度偏差较小的情况下,SPI的监测结果可能比SPEI更为严重,因此,建议结合SPI使用,以弥补这一不足。

雨养农业区冬小麦品种灌浆期抗旱耐逆性评价技术规程

为进一步推进抗旱耐逆小麦品种的快速筛选及其推广应用,提高耐旱育种效率,通过半干旱雨养农业区田间生产条件下灌浆期小麦气孔性状多年多点的测定,明确小麦灌浆期抗旱耐逆性判定规则,联合主成分分析和隶属函数值方法,从适用范围、规范性引用文件、术语和定义、技术原理、基本要求、田间管理、气孔性状调查分析、评价指标的计算及评价等级等方面总结出雨养农业区冬小麦品种灌浆期抗旱耐逆性综合评价技术规程。

基于SPEI指数的淮北地区气象干旱时空特征研究

【目的】研究淮北地区1961—2022年气象干旱时空特征。【方法】采用淮北地区21个站点1961—2022年实测气象资料,计算月、季、年尺度各站点及区域平均标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),分析该区干旱发生频次、干旱趋势及干旱发生强度时空变化特征。【结果】(1)1961—2022年淮北地区月、季、年尺度SPEI呈下降趋势。(2)月尺度干旱场次及干旱平均持续时间呈逐年上升趋势,淮北站年均干旱场次最多(0.73次/年),泗县站干旱平均持续时间最长(4.61月/次),淮北站月尺度干旱风险最高。(3)春季、秋季呈不显著干旱化趋势,夏季、冬季呈不显著湿润化趋势;冬季干旱频率和干旱发生强度最高,分别为34.43%、21.86%;夏季局域性及其以上干旱频率最高;冬季全域性及其以上干旱频率最高;中东部及西南部春季干旱频率较高,东南部夏季干旱频率较低,东部和北部秋季干旱频率较高,西部和东北部、东南部边缘地区冬季干旱频率较高。(4)年尺度淮北地区呈不显著干旱化趋势(-0.01/10 a),干旱站次比逐年增加(1.4%/10 a);北部干旱化倾向较高,西部及东南部干旱发生强度较高,东北部及西南部干旱频率较高。【结论】淮北地区整体呈干旱化趋势,区域间干旱频率、干旱发生强度差异明显。

甜菜品系叶丛快速生长期抗旱性综合评价

【目的】干旱是制约甜菜生长的重要因素之一,直接影响甜菜产量、含糖率和产糖量,鉴定甜菜叶丛快速生长期的抗旱性,筛选出抗旱品系材料,对甜菜新品种的选育具有重要意义。【方法】选357份甜菜品系材料,设置正常灌溉灌溉和干旱胁迫2种处理,测定甜菜品质叶绿素、叶面积指数和株高等7个主要指标。以产量抗旱指数、综合抗旱指数等8个指标为抗旱指标,综合评价各品系材料。利用SSR分子标记分析其中72份品系材料的遗传多样性,分析甜菜不同抗旱品系材料之间的亲缘关系。【结果】干旱胁迫下,各指标的平均值均有所下降,下降幅度由大到小分别为产量(26.05%)、产糖量(16.77%)、株高(14.85%)、叶片数(8.43%)和叶面积指数(2.6%);抗旱指标间多呈极显著正相关,叶绿素、叶面积指数等与抗旱指标之间多呈显著或极显著正相关。【结论】叶丛快速生长期叶面积指数、株高、叶片数、产量、产糖量是判定水分胁迫下甜菜品系材料抗旱性的5个重要指标,基于8个抗旱指标综合评价出10份抗旱品系材料,72份核心骨干材料亲缘关系较近,其中10份抗旱品系材料XJT4121和XJT1317为姊妹系。

The Evolution of Drought in China and Its Impact on Agriculture in Recent Years

[Objective] To research the evolution of drought in China and its impact on agriculture in recent years. [Method] We analyzed land area covered, area affected, and disaster rate arising from severe drought occurring in China in the period 1978-2008, in conjunction with the planting area of crops in China and forcing of drought on the planting area of crops. [Result] In recent years, a large portion of provinces and cities in China, especially the southern areas, the drought has not yet been eased, but tends to deteriorate; since 1978, the area affected in China occasioned by drought has been rapidly mounting, and total crop failure area caused by drought, on the whole, also assumes trend of rise. In the mean time, population explosion and economic development are responsible for dwindling of planting area of grain, and tardy rise in total grain yield. [Conclusion] Constructing harmonious valley and achieving concordant coexistence between human and water, is to regulate human behaviors and further strengthen related ecological protection work, on the basis of scientifically understanding and correctly harnessing natural law.

基于MOD16和地面降水数据的大别山区农业干旱与气象干旱响应关系

利用2000—2020年大别山区气象观测资料和MODIS16A2资料,计算降水距平百分率(PA)和作物缺水指数(CWSI),研究农业干旱与气象干旱的时空分布特征,利用滞后相关分析探究二者的响应关系。结果表明:(1)大别山区降水存在显著时空分布不均匀性,西北少、东南多,且旱涝年的降水量差异大(最高达875 mm)。(2)大别山区东南部发生气象干旱事件的频率偏高(最高为66.67%),但干旱程度较轻;北部发生干旱频率较低(最低为38.1%),但易发生严重干旱。(3)大别山区农业干旱具有秋冬春季容易发生、北部更容易发生、海拔低处更容易发生的特征。(4)大别山区南部农业干旱对气象干旱在次月和第3个月响应程度最高,农业干旱比气象干旱更容易发生,持续时间更久,影响更大。

神东矿区干旱空间异质性及其环境驱动机制

【目的】分析神东矿区干旱空间异质性及其环境驱动机制,为该地区生态环境改善的精准施策提供参考。【方法】基于温度干旱植被指数(Temperature Vegetation Drought Index, TVDI)分析神东矿区2002—2018年植被生长季的地表干旱状况,利用地理探测器分析不同环境因子对干旱空间异质性的影响。【结果】2002—2018年,空间平均TVDI呈持续下降趋势,2018年空间平均TVDI最低,为0.561。年内干旱程度最严重时期集中在5—8月,研究区西南部干旱程度大于东北部。降水、归一化植被指数、土壤类型的地理探测器q>10%,以上因子与其他因子之间的交互作用能增强单因子对干旱空间异质性的解释性能。塌陷区年平均TVDI高于非塌陷区。【结论】TVDI可有效表征矿区干旱状况,降水、归一化植被指数、土壤类型为影响研究区干旱空间异质性的主要因子。

基于温度植被干旱指数的西北干旱区干旱时空变化

西北干旱区常年降雨稀少、干旱频繁,严重影响当地的生态平衡、农业生产以及经济可持续发展。为厘清西北干旱区干旱时空分布特征,基于增强型植被指数(enhanced vegetation index,EVI)和地表温度(land surface temperature,LST)构建温度植被干旱指数(temperature vegetation dryness index,TVDI)模型获得2000—2022年6—9月西北干旱区干旱时空变化特征,利用Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势分析法明确干旱趋势,分析不同土地利用类型与干旱的关系。结果表明:①西北干旱区TVDI空间分布呈现“西北低东南高”的特征,多年TVDI的均值为0.67,处于中旱的水平;②西北干旱区TVDI呈干旱加剧趋势,增加速率为8.8×10^(-4)年^(-1),显著加剧的面积约占总面积的21.04%,轻微加剧的面积约占总面积的62.33%;③未利用地TVDI值均高于其他土地类型,干旱程度越高未利用地对TVDI贡献度越大。