Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory

The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.

Transport of Water Vapor over North China during the Drought Period in Summer of 1980

The features of water vapor transport, such as temporal evolution, vertical structure and spatial pattern, over North China during the prolonged drought in the summer of 1980 have been analyzed through computation of water vapor flux based on the once daily ECMWF grid-point data at 12GMT. The results indicate that it is unlikely that the characteristics of the atmospheric mass divergence, ascending motion and stratification stability in North China were completely opposite to those in the Yangtze River Valley, where the heavy flood occurred in the summer of 1980. It is major differences that the strong ascending motion and significant water vapor convergence overlap fairly well each other in the vertical levels in the Yangtze River Valley, while the maximum ascending motion is accompanied by water vapor divergence or weak water vapor convergence in North China. This vertical structure in North China results in insufficient water vapor supply and, therefore, little condensation and precipitation in the middle and upper atmosphere were produced. Additionally, a mode of monthly-scale low frequency oscillation can be found in water vapor flux, which is in correspondence to the fluctuation period of rainfall.

A STUDY ON THE VARIATION OF DROUGHT PERIODS OCCURRING IN NORTHWEST CHINA AND OTHER AFRICA-ASIA CONTINENTAL REGIONS

Characteristics of the drought periods which occurred in North Africa,Middle East,Middle Asia and Northwest China were studied based on the analysis of rainfall data from 1870—1990.It is found that the drought periods first started in North Africa and expanded eastward to Northwest China through Middle East and Middle Asia in about 27.5 years.And then a new teleconnection pattern of 30—50 day low-frequency oscillation which is associated with the droughts over the Africa-Asia Con- tinent was discovered.Finally,a hypothesis is proposed based on the statistical results that the east- ward expansion of drought periods may be caused by the occurrence of giant earthquakes(Ms>6.0) which have a tendency to shift eastward from North Africa to Northwest China in about 27.75 years.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERIC HEATING SOURCE/SINK ANOMALIES OF ASIAN MONSOON AND FLOOD/DROUGHT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN IN THE MEIYU PERIOD

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 30-year precipitation dataset of observed daily rainfall from 109 gauge stations are utilized in this paper.Using the REOF we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in the 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu periods from 1978 to 2007.The result showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin can be divided into the south and north part.As a result,relationships between an atmospheric heating source(hereafter called <Q_1>) over the Asian region and the precipitation on the south and north side of Yangtze River in Meiyu periods were separately studied in this paper.The results are shown as follows.The flood/drought to the north of Yangtze River(NYR) was mainly related to the <Q_1> over the East Asia summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the Philippines through Western Pacific and the south China was weakened(strengthened),it would probably result in the flood(drought) in NYR;and the precipitation on the south side of Yangtze River(SYR)was related to the <Q_1> over the east Asia and Indian summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the areas from south China to the northern East China Sea and Yellow Sea and south-eastern Japan was strengthened(weakened),and the <Q_1> over the areas from the Bay of Bengal to south-eastern Tibetan Plateau was weakened(strengthened),it will lead to flood(drought) in SYR.

花铃期干旱胁迫对陆地棉农艺性状的影响及其抗旱等级划分

为了探索花铃期干旱胁迫对不同棉花品种重要农艺性状的影响,并对品种进行等级划分,以前期鉴定的30份陆地棉品种进行试验,测定不同品种干旱胁迫组和对照组的农艺性状和品质指标等。通过含水量的差异性分析、农艺性状相关性分析、抗旱系数分析、3种综合评价值(D、CDC、WDC)相关性分析,证明3种评价值的评价结果一致。通过各性状与D值和WDC值的关联度分析,明确伸长率、单株产量、比强度和整齐度4个指标可作为品种抗旱性鉴定的重要指标。以D值进行聚类分析,对30份品种进行了抗旱等级分类,共分为4大类。第I大类,共有DG219、DG168、DG186等3份材料,属于强抗旱类别;第Ⅱ大类,共有DG270、DG228等12份材料,属于抗旱类别;第Ⅲ大类,仅有1份材料(DG248),属于较敏感类别;第Ⅳ大类,共有DG43、DG42等14份材料,属于敏旱类别。研究结果为品种的鉴定和利用提供了参考依据。

干旱和品种对小麦灌浆期旗叶下午光合速率、关键酶活性和产量的影响

为了探讨干旱和品种对小麦灌浆期旗叶下午净光合速率(Pn)、光合关键酶活性和产量的影响,2019—2021年度在池栽全生育期遮雨条件下设置包括重度(W1)、中度(W2)、轻度(W3)干旱和适墒(W4)的4个水分处理,在灌浆前期、中期的14:00—16:00测定了强抗旱性品种晋麦47(JM47)和弱抗旱性品种偃展4110(YZ4110)的旗叶Pn、1,5-二磷酸核酮糖羧化酶/加氧酶(Rubisco)、Rubisco活化酶(RCA)、ATP合成酶(ATPase)、磷酸烯醇式丙酮酸羧化酶(PEPC)和丙酮酸磷酸双激酶(PPDK)活性以及成熟期的产量。结果表明,干旱使小麦灌浆期旗叶下午Pn、多数光合酶活性以及产量降低,总体表现为干旱胁迫程度越大,上述指标的降幅也越大,但其影响效应存在品种和年际差异。W1、W2和W3与W4相比,旗叶下午Pn, JM47分别降低33.6%~40.6%,12.0%~30.5%和5.0%~13.5%,YZ4110分别降低44.0%~52.0%,22.5%~38.1%和11.5%~20.5%;旗叶下午Rubisco活性,JM47灌浆前期降低、灌浆中期增加,而YZ4110分别降低13.3%~25.6%,7.1%~14.0%和11.2%~11.6%;旗叶下午RCA活性,灌浆前期多显著降低,灌浆中期JM47在W2和W3下增加,而YZ4110在W1和W2下降低;旗叶下午ATPase活性,JM47在W1下降低、W3下提高,而YZ4110分别降低19.3%~48.7%,7.2%~24.2%和0.1%~8.9%。不同水分处理的旗叶下午PEPC活性因生长季和品种而异,但W1与W4相比,JM47和YZ4110的旗叶下午PPDK活性分别降低12.4%~18.8%和16.7%~18.2%。与YZ4110相比,JM47旗叶下午Pn和光合酶活性在适墒下多无显著差异,但干旱下多表现为升高。相关性分析结果表明,产量、旗叶下午Pn与灌浆期旗叶下午ATPase活性和灌浆前期旗叶下午PEPC活性呈极显著正相关,因而在灌浆期下午保持较高的旗叶ATPase和PEPC活性有利于提高小麦旗叶下午Pn和籽粒产量。

近50年滇池流域汛期降水时空演变特征分析

以滇池流域1970—2020年汛期(5—10月)降水量资料为依据,利用地理信息技术,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析等方法,分析近50年来滇池流域汛期降水年际变化的趋势性、周期性以及集中度、集中期、降水中心和旱涝发生频率等演变特征。结果表明:(1)近50年来,滇池流域汛期降水总体呈减少趋势,中部地区降水呈增加趋势,盘龙江上游的松华坝水库以上区域及南部地区降水呈减少趋势;(2)汛期降水年际变化存在31 a的主周期,中部主城区降水集中度高于南部地区;(3)汛期降水的中心整体呈现向东部、南部方向偏移的态势,且移动趋势显著;(4)滇池流域旱涝频发,尤其盘龙江中段昆明主城区为旱涝多发区。该成果对滇池流域水旱灾害防御及水资源管理具有参考意义。

周期性干旱下桂花滞尘能力的变化及其生理响应

干旱的反复发生会导致植物自身产生胁迫记忆,进而会对植物的滞尘能力产生影响,然而,干旱胁迫记忆如何影响植物的滞尘效率及植物的生理响应和适应尚未明确。通过向开顶式气室(OTCs)内输送机动车尾气,停止供水达到干旱,分别设置尾气胁迫组(P)、干旱胁迫组(D)、双胁迫组(PD)和对照组(CK)4个处理组。每个周期性胁迫设置为期12 d,恢复期也为12 d。结果表明,桂花叶片表面滞尘量在P组下由S1周期的33.77μg·cm^(-2)下降到S3的21.32μg·cm^(-2),PD组下由S1周期的38.08μg·cm^(-2)下降到S3的25.70μg·cm^(-2);蜡质层滞尘量在P组呈显著性下降(P<0.001),在PD组中下降不显著。植物体内抗氧化酶活性随着周期处理而逐渐减小,可溶性糖含量先上升后下降,叶绿素含量与颗粒物在第2阶段呈显著负相关,第3周期并无显著相关性。表明反复干旱下提高了植物生理对胁迫的适应性,说明植物的胁迫记忆可以帮助植物更好地应对再次到来的胁迫。

116份藜麦种质资源萌发期抗旱性综合评价

采用不同浓度的PEG-6000模拟干旱胁迫,对黑藜(黑粒)、青海红(红粒)、柴达木红(红粒)、雪藜(白粒)和青藜1号(白粒)等3个类型的116份藜麦品种进行干旱胁迫试验,确定藜麦萌发期适宜抗旱性鉴定的浓度,并对不同类型藜麦种质资源进行萌发期抗旱鉴定。以发芽率、发芽势、发芽指数、活力指数、芽长、根长、鲜质量和萌发耐旱指数等8个萌发期相关指标为依据,采用主成分分析法、隶属函数法和聚类分析法对参试藜麦种质的抗旱性进行综合评价及分类。结果表明:20%PEG-6000可以作为胁迫试验的适宜浓度;采用此浓度对116份不同来源的藜麦种质资源进行萌发期抗旱性鉴定和各指标值的测定,再结合主成分分析和隶属函数法计算不同藜麦品种的加权隶属函数值,并以此进行抗旱性强弱排序;通过聚类分析将参试材料分为3大类群,其中第2大类群第1亚类群(Ⅱ_(1))的29个藜麦品种抗旱性较好,可以作为后期抗旱品种培育的基础材料。

1961-2020年新疆地区干旱演变时空特征分析

采用中国新疆地区1961-2020年的逐月标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)表征该地区气象干旱。通过Sen′s斜率估计法、MK检验法、Hurst指数和R/S分析法、连续小波变换和旋转经验正交函数法(REOF),研究新疆地区气象干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明:在空间上,新疆大部分地区在春、夏、秋三季,处于干旱状态;冬季,新疆南部地区旱情加剧,北部地区旱情有所缓和。在时间上,季节尺度的SPEI变化具有明显的波动性,呈现干湿交替变化趋势。不同季节的SPEI震荡周期集中在1961-2011年间,但周期长度不一致。采用REOF将新疆地区的干湿状况分为4个亚区,空间分布上具有一定差异。耦合Sen′s斜率估计法和Hurst指数表明春、秋两季,新疆大部份地区干旱加剧,冬季旱情缓和。

赣江流域水文干旱事件重现期计算方法

针对以径流相对亏缺状态表征的水文干旱事件,采用3种常用的概率分布函数Log-normal、Gamma和Normal,拟合了赣江外洲站实测年径流资料;利用外洲站年径流的统计特征,推导了干旱历时和干旱强度2种典型干旱特征变量的理论概率分布函数的参数;计算了期望间隔时间定义下干旱历时内累积干旱强度达到某一阈值的干旱事件的重现期,并采用Monte Carlo随机模拟技术进行了验证。结果表明:根据年径流统计信息解析推求水文干旱事件的重现期,具有较强的统计基础和可信的精度,能够一定程度克服依靠有限观测水文序列进行干旱事件重现期推断的样本偏差,可为定量评估流域干旱风险,支撑流域水安全保障提供新的思路。

基于标准化降水指数的辽宁省大豆需水关键期干旱大气环流成因分析

利用1971—2020年辽宁省54个气象站逐日降水量资料及逐日NCEP/NCAR(美国大气科学研究中心和美国国家环境预报中心)再分析资料,计算了辽宁省各站大豆需水关键期(开花期至结荚期)标准化降水指数,分析了大豆需水关键期典型干旱年份及其大气环流成因。结果表明:副热带西风急流位置异常引发的对流层高低空大气环流的不同配置是造成辽宁省大豆需水关键期不同气候特征干旱年的主要大气环流成因。当大豆需水关键期西风急流位置较常年偏北时易发生高温干旱,辽宁省大豆主产区一致受到较大影响,西风急流位置偏北,辽宁省位于高空急流轴南侧、高空辐散风场中心,西太平洋副热带高压位置阶段性异常偏北控制整个辽宁省,对流层风场贯穿高层至低层的下沉气流配合较差的水汽条件是发生高温干旱的主要大气环流成因;当大豆需水关键期西风急流位置偏南时易发生低温干旱,辽宁省大豆主产区中部和北部受影响较大,西风急流位置偏南,季节进程缓慢,西太平洋副热带高压位置较常年持续偏南、偏西,对流层上层垂直上升运动明显,冷空气活动频繁,但对流层中下层一致的下沉运动配合较差的水汽条件不利于降水产生,导致低温和干旱现象的同时发生。

13个玉米品种萌发期耐旱性鉴定与筛选

种子萌发期的抗旱能力可在一定程度上反映该作物的耐旱性,种子萌发期是评价作物耐旱性的一个重要时期。为筛选出耐旱玉米品种,以清水作对照,用高渗溶液PEG-6000模拟干旱胁迫,对13个玉米品种进行发芽培养试验。结果表明:综合考虑发芽率、芽长、根长、须根数4个指标,以鑫禾528的抗旱性最强,其次为珍棒511和中科玉509。该结果可以有效反映其在后期生长过程中的抗旱性,为生产上选用抗旱品种提供参考依据。

民国时期安徽防治水旱灾害的思想与实践探究

民国时期,安徽自然灾害频繁发生,类型多样,主要以水旱灾害为主。自然灾害的严重状况,引起了国人的关注与反思,森林和水利防灾思想开始盛行,造林和水利事业成为这一时期安徽省建设的重要内容。民国时期,安徽省颁布了一系列森林保护法规,开展植树造林运动,造林事业开始兴起。1931年水灾后,安徽省的水利建设思想开始转变为以预防水旱灾害为主,全省制定了四期水利工程建设计划,开展了大规模的水利工程建设,成效明显,发挥了应有的防灾保障作用。纵观民国时期安徽省的防灾工作,虽然一些计划没有落实到位,但是其防灾思想与实践,对于当时的水旱灾害治理具有一定的成效,对我们今天的防灾减灾也具有借鉴价值和意义。

甘肃白银农作物生长期降水量时空变化及干旱风险评估

为更好地分析甘肃白银农作物生长期降水量时空变化特征,利用白银市4个国家气象站1961-2022年和37个区域气象站点1994-2022年降水日资料,并采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、小波分析、Mann-KendaⅡ法及目估适配线法等方法,着重对农作物生长期降水量的空间异常特征、周期性、突变性及干旱风险进行讨论和评估。结果表明:农作物生长期降水量从南向北递减。受地形影响,高值区位于南部地区最南端,低值区位于北部地区呈“钳形状”干舌当中,空间异常形态主要表现为3种形式:一致型、南北相反型、地形型;年际变化北部地区有增加趋势且不显著,南部地区有减少趋势且显著,存在30 a、10~15 a的年代际周期变化,目前均处于相对偏少期;用pearson-Ⅲ分布较好地拟合白银市农作物生长期不同保证率下的降水值,并以此为依据,将研究区按农作物生长期的降水量划分为4个区:可用区、短缺区、紧缺区、稀有区,其干旱风险分别为20%、35%、65%、90%。

CHARACTERISTICS OF RAINFALL VARIATION OVER EAST CHINA FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH DROUGHTS AND FLOODS

With the precipitation data of 113 stations in East China during the last 50 years,the characteristics of the precipitation,including Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP) and their tendencies,are analyzed.The results show that the PCD in the northern part of the region is markedly higher than that in the southern part,but the PCP in the south is much earlier than that in the north by about one and a half months,which displays significant regional differences in precipitation.With the global warming,precipitation over East China shows an increasing tendency,but PCD displays a trend that is neither increasing nor decreasing.At the same time,the PCP is later than before,which can be mainly found in Jiangxi and southern Henan provinces.As a result,there are strong associations between the precipitation,PCD and PCP,which can be shown in the years with more precipitation,stronger PCD and later-than-usual PCP.In a word,the abnormal distribution of precipitation,PCP,and PCD over East China results in more extreme events of precipitation and more droughts and floods.

Assessing Maize Drought Hazard for Agricultural Areas Based on the Fuzzy Gamma Model

Drought is one of the severe meteorological disasters and causes of serious losses for agricultural productions, and early assessment of drought hazard degree is critical in management of maize farming. This study proposes a novel method for assessment of maize drought hazard in different growth stages. First, the study divided the maize growth period into four critical growth stages, including seeding, elongation, tasseling, and filling. Second, maize drought causal factors were selected and the fuzzy membership function was established. Finally, the study built a fuzzy gamma model to assess maize drought hazards, and the gamma 0.93 was finally established using Monte Carlo Analysis. Performing fuzzy gamma operation with 0.93 for gamma and classifying the area yielded a map of maize drought hazards with four zones of light, moderate, severe, and extreme droughts. Using actual field collected data, seven selected samples for drought hazard degree were examined, the model output proved to be a valid tool in the assessment maize drought hazard. This model will be very useful in analyzing the spatial change of maize drought hazard and influence on yield, which is significant for drought management in major agricultural areas.

Optimization on Water Resource System Operation Policy during Drought

The mixed linear programming model is commonly recognized to be an effective means for searching optimal reservoir operation policy in water resources system. In this paper a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model is set up to obtain the optimal operation policy of multi-reservoir water supply system during drought, which is able to consider the operation rule of reservoir-group system within longer-term successive drought periods, according to the basic connotation of indexes expressing the water-supply risk of reservoir during drought, that is, reliability, resilience and vulnerability of reservoir water supply, and mathematical programming principles. The model-solving procedures, particularly, the decomposition-adjustment algorithm, are proposed based on characteristics of the model structure. The principle of model-solving technique is to decompose the complex system into several smaller sub-systems on which some ease-solving mathematical models may be established. The objective of this optimization model aims at maximizing the reliability of water supply and minimizing the maximum water-shortage of single time-period within water- supply system during drought. The multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model and proposed solving procedures are applied to a case study of reservoir-group water-supply system in Huanghe-Huaihe River Basin, China. The desired water-shortage distribution within the system operation term and the maximum shortage of single time-period are achieved. The results of case study verifies that the lighter water-shortage distributed evenly among several time-periods can avoid the calamities resulted from severe water shortage concentrated on a few time-periods during drought.

丹参萌发期抗旱性鉴定及抗旱指标筛选

以5个丹参栽培类型为材料,用不同浓度(0%、3%、6%、9%、12%)的PEG-6000在萌发期模拟干旱胁迫处理,测定发芽势、发芽率、子叶长、子叶宽、胚芽长、胚根长等指标,采用主成分分析和隶属函数分析进行丹参萌发期的抗旱性鉴定及抗旱指标筛选。结果表明:高浓度PEG对种子萌发产生明显的抑制作用,低浓度(3%PEG-6000)处理对丹参种子的生长发育具有促进作用,5个丹参栽培类型中豫丹参VD发芽率(0%PEG-6000)和发芽势(3%PEG-6000)最高,分别为56.50%、55.50%,豫丹参VC、豫丹参VD和豫丹参VE在12%PEG-6000下发芽率、发芽势为0%;随着PEG胁迫程度的增大,发芽势、发芽率、胚芽长、胚根长、子叶长、子叶宽、十芽重、萌发指数和活力指数总体表现出先增大后减小的趋势。对各指标进行主成分分析,前2个主成分能够概括9个指标82.635%的数据信息,对在前2个主成分中特征向量较大的8个综合指标的相对值进行因子分析,可提取出2个公因子,子叶长、子叶宽、活力指数、十芽重和萌发指数在2个公因子上有较大载荷。9%PEG-6000是较适宜的抗旱性鉴定浓度。根据综合隶属函数值可得出5个供试材料抗旱性强弱顺序:豫丹参VE>豫丹参VC>豫丹参VB>豫丹参VD>豫丹参VA,其综合隶属函数值分别为:0.071、0.068、0.054、0.043、0.028,豫丹参VE为抗旱能力较强的种质,豫丹参VC抗旱能力次之,豫丹参VD和豫丹参VA抗旱性较弱;子叶长、子叶宽、活力指数、十芽重和萌发指数可以作为抗旱鉴定指标。

4个高羊茅品种萌发期抗旱性研究

为筛选出抗旱性较强的高羊茅品种,本试验选取‘JZ’‘精华’‘FPZⅣ’和‘FPZⅤ’4个品种作为研究对象,采用PEG-6000不同浓度(0、5%、10%、15%和20%)模拟干旱胁迫,测定4个品种的发芽率、发芽势、萌发指数、抗旱指数、胚芽长和胚根长等指标。结果表明,干旱胁迫对4个高羊茅品种萌发期各个指标均产生了一定的影响,且存在品种差异,随着胁迫强度的增加,各指标下降幅度逐渐增大。通过隶属函数法综合评价,各品种的抗旱性强弱依次为‘:FPZⅤ’>‘精华’>‘JZ’>‘FPZⅣ’。