Yellow River Valley flood and drought disaster：spatial－temporal distribution prediction and early－warning

By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features of severe flood and drought in Yellow River Valley. Statistical methods of varianceanalysis, probability transition and the principles of scale correspondence were employed tocomprehensively predicate 90's tendency of severe flood and drought in the Yellow River Valley. In addi-tion, this paper pointed out the possible breaching dikes, sectors and the flooding ranges by future's se-vere flood, meanwhile estimating the associated economic losses and impact to environment.

Simulation and Analysis about the Effects of Geopotential Height Anomaly in Tropical and Subtropical Region on Droughts or Floods in the Yangtze River Valley and North China

Previous study comes to the conclusion： based on the anomalies of the South Asian high （SAH）, 100-hPa geopotential height, and 100-hPa circulation over tropical and subtropical regions, we can predict precipitation anomaly in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. To test its validity, a series of experiments have been designed and operated, which include controlled experiment, sensitivity experiment （which has added anomalies into 100-hPa geopotential height and wind field）, and four-composite experiments. Experiments based on the composed initial field such as EPR-CF, EPR-CD, EPR-HF, and EPR-HD, can reproduce the floods or droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. It suggests that anomalies of the SAH, 100- hPa geopotential height, and circulation over tropical and subtropical regions may probably imply summer precipitation anomalies in the two regions. Sensitivity experiment results show that anomalies of the SAH, 100-hPa geopotential height, and southwest flow in the previous period is a signal of droughts or floods for the following summer in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. And it is also one of the factors that have impact on summer precipitation anomaly in the two regions. Positive anomaly of 100-hPa geopotential height and the anomalous intensifying of the SAH and southwest flow will induce floods in the Yangtze River Valley and droughts in North China; while negative anomaly of 100-hPa geopotential height and anomalous weakening of the SAH and southwest flow will induce droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and floods in North China.