The features of water vapor transport, such as temporal evolution, vertical structure and spatial pattern, over North China during the prolonged drought in the summer of 1980 have been analyzed through computation of ...The features of water vapor transport, such as temporal evolution, vertical structure and spatial pattern, over North China during the prolonged drought in the summer of 1980 have been analyzed through computation of water vapor flux based on the once daily ECMWF grid-point data at 12GMT. The results indicate that it is unlikely that the characteristics of the atmospheric mass divergence, ascending motion and stratification stability in North China were completely opposite to those in the Yangtze River Valley, where the heavy flood occurred in the summer of 1980. It is major differences that the strong ascending motion and significant water vapor convergence overlap fairly well each other in the vertical levels in the Yangtze River Valley, while the maximum ascending motion is accompanied by water vapor divergence or weak water vapor convergence in North China. This vertical structure in North China results in insufficient water vapor supply and, therefore, little condensation and precipitation in the middle and upper atmosphere were produced. Additionally, a mode of monthly-scale low frequency oscillation can be found in water vapor flux, which is in correspondence to the fluctuation period of rainfall.展开更多
Vast convective activities over tropical zones are analyzed for both wet and dry summers in North China. An ITCZ synthesis index is designed using OLR data. The index can demonstrate quite clearly and objectively the ...Vast convective activities over tropical zones are analyzed for both wet and dry summers in North China. An ITCZ synthesis index is designed using OLR data. The index can demonstrate quite clearly and objectively the seasonal features of deep convection in Asia monsoon areas. The differences of ITCZ activities in Indian as well as East Asian monsoon regions in winter-spring period are significant and so is the time-lagged correlation, which would be able to provide a new way to the long-lead prediction of summer rain in North China. The propagation characters of low frequency fluctuation are also different between wet and dry years. The intensity of low frequency fluctuation is stronger and the area is larger in wet years than that in dry years in both hemispheres, The fluctuation moves from south to north successively in wet years, which may lead to the leap of the subtropical high northwards, while it remains quasi-stationary in the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial zone in dry years.展开更多
The second EOF（EOF2） mode of interannual variation in summer rainfall over East China is characterized by inverse rainfall changes between South China（SC） and the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys（YH）.However,un...The second EOF（EOF2） mode of interannual variation in summer rainfall over East China is characterized by inverse rainfall changes between South China（SC） and the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys（YH）.However,understanding of the EOF2 mode is still limited.In this study,the authors identify that the EOF2 mode physically depicts the latitudinal variation of the climatological summer-mean rainy belt along the Yangtze River valley（YRRB）,based on a 160-station rainfall dataset in China for the period 1951-2011.The latitudinal variation of the YRRB is mostly attributed to two different rainfall patterns：one reflects the seesaw（SS） rainfall changes between the YH and SC（SS pattern）,and the other features rainfall anomalies concentrated in SC only（SC pattern）.Corresponding to a southward shift of the YRRB,the SS pattern,with above-normal rainfall in SC and below-normal rainfall in the YH,is related to a cyclonic anomaly centered over the SC-East China Sea region,with a northerly anomaly blowing from the YH to SC;while the SC pattern,with above-normal rainfall in SC,is related to an anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific（WNP）,corresponding to an enhanced southwest monsoon over SC.The cyclonic anomaly,related to the SS pattern,is induced by a near-barotropic eastward propagating wave train along the Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet,originating from the mid-high latitudes of the North Atlantic.The anticyclonic anomaly,for the SC pattern,is related to suppressed rainfall in the WNP.展开更多
In spring and early summer of 2019, Yunnan Province experienced the most severe seasonal drought on record,with days of extreme drought area exceeding 10^5 km^2 far more than normal. Consistently, the precipitation in...In spring and early summer of 2019, Yunnan Province experienced the most severe seasonal drought on record,with days of extreme drought area exceeding 10^5 km^2 far more than normal. Consistently, the precipitation in each month from February to June is over 30% less than normal, and about 50% less in the most severe drought period(April–June). The rainy season in Southwest China(SWC) started on the third pentad in June 2019, which is the second latest in history. The rainy season in Yunnan started on 24 June, which is the latest(29 days later than normal). On the contrary, the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is abnormally early. The lag time between the start of the rainy season in SWC and the onset of the SCSSM in 2019 is 7 pentads, which is the largest since 1961, much longer than the climate mean(less than 1 pentad). The present study analyzes the possible reasons why the rainy season came extremely late and the drought disaster persisted and intensified after a much early SCSSM, at both seasonal and subseasonal timescales. The abnormally late onset of the rainy season and the second greatest potential evapotranspiration(PET) since 1981 are the direct reasons for the persistent drought. Statistical results show that the water vapor from southwest of Yunnan in April–June contributes more than that from the east at the seasonal scale. In April–June 2019, however, the southern branch trough(SBT) was abnormally weak, the large and strong anticyclonic wind anomaly prevailed over the Bay of the Bengal(BOB), and the meridional water vapor transport to Yunnan was weak. At the subseasonal scale, the weaker SBT lasted the longest, and the strong convection over the BOB came up late despite of an early onset of the SCSSM, which resulted in reduced low-level moisture convergence in Yunnan and development of drought prior to the SCSSM onset. From the onset of SCSSM to the start of rainy season in SWC, the SBT and meridional water vapor transport from the BOB were still weak, and the water vapor was mainly transported into the coastal area of South and Southeast China rather than Yunnan. After the start of the rainy season in SWC, the SBT was still weak. This led to less moisture transport in the westerlies to the west of Yunnan and the persistent extreme drought. Both the statistical results and case analysis indicate that the stronger Australian high in spring and early summer of 2019 was associated with the abnormally strong anticyclone over the BOB and the always weak SBT. In sum, the anomalous weakness of SBT played a critical role in the extreme drought occurrence and persistence in Yunnan of Southwest China in 2019.展开更多
基金This research is sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘The features of water vapor transport, such as temporal evolution, vertical structure and spatial pattern, over North China during the prolonged drought in the summer of 1980 have been analyzed through computation of water vapor flux based on the once daily ECMWF grid-point data at 12GMT. The results indicate that it is unlikely that the characteristics of the atmospheric mass divergence, ascending motion and stratification stability in North China were completely opposite to those in the Yangtze River Valley, where the heavy flood occurred in the summer of 1980. It is major differences that the strong ascending motion and significant water vapor convergence overlap fairly well each other in the vertical levels in the Yangtze River Valley, while the maximum ascending motion is accompanied by water vapor divergence or weak water vapor convergence in North China. This vertical structure in North China results in insufficient water vapor supply and, therefore, little condensation and precipitation in the middle and upper atmosphere were produced. Additionally, a mode of monthly-scale low frequency oscillation can be found in water vapor flux, which is in correspondence to the fluctuation period of rainfall.
文摘Vast convective activities over tropical zones are analyzed for both wet and dry summers in North China. An ITCZ synthesis index is designed using OLR data. The index can demonstrate quite clearly and objectively the seasonal features of deep convection in Asia monsoon areas. The differences of ITCZ activities in Indian as well as East Asian monsoon regions in winter-spring period are significant and so is the time-lagged correlation, which would be able to provide a new way to the long-lead prediction of summer rain in North China. The propagation characters of low frequency fluctuation are also different between wet and dry years. The intensity of low frequency fluctuation is stronger and the area is larger in wet years than that in dry years in both hemispheres, The fluctuation moves from south to north successively in wet years, which may lead to the leap of the subtropical high northwards, while it remains quasi-stationary in the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial zone in dry years.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41375086 and 41320104007)
文摘The second EOF（EOF2） mode of interannual variation in summer rainfall over East China is characterized by inverse rainfall changes between South China（SC） and the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys（YH）.However,understanding of the EOF2 mode is still limited.In this study,the authors identify that the EOF2 mode physically depicts the latitudinal variation of the climatological summer-mean rainy belt along the Yangtze River valley（YRRB）,based on a 160-station rainfall dataset in China for the period 1951-2011.The latitudinal variation of the YRRB is mostly attributed to two different rainfall patterns：one reflects the seesaw（SS） rainfall changes between the YH and SC（SS pattern）,and the other features rainfall anomalies concentrated in SC only（SC pattern）.Corresponding to a southward shift of the YRRB,the SS pattern,with above-normal rainfall in SC and below-normal rainfall in the YH,is related to a cyclonic anomaly centered over the SC-East China Sea region,with a northerly anomaly blowing from the YH to SC;while the SC pattern,with above-normal rainfall in SC,is related to an anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific（WNP）,corresponding to an enhanced southwest monsoon over SC.The cyclonic anomaly,related to the SS pattern,is induced by a near-barotropic eastward propagating wave train along the Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet,originating from the mid-high latitudes of the North Atlantic.The anticyclonic anomaly,for the SC pattern,is related to suppressed rainfall in the WNP.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1505603 and 2017YFC1502402)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201306033)。
文摘In spring and early summer of 2019, Yunnan Province experienced the most severe seasonal drought on record,with days of extreme drought area exceeding 10^5 km^2 far more than normal. Consistently, the precipitation in each month from February to June is over 30% less than normal, and about 50% less in the most severe drought period(April–June). The rainy season in Southwest China(SWC) started on the third pentad in June 2019, which is the second latest in history. The rainy season in Yunnan started on 24 June, which is the latest(29 days later than normal). On the contrary, the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is abnormally early. The lag time between the start of the rainy season in SWC and the onset of the SCSSM in 2019 is 7 pentads, which is the largest since 1961, much longer than the climate mean(less than 1 pentad). The present study analyzes the possible reasons why the rainy season came extremely late and the drought disaster persisted and intensified after a much early SCSSM, at both seasonal and subseasonal timescales. The abnormally late onset of the rainy season and the second greatest potential evapotranspiration(PET) since 1981 are the direct reasons for the persistent drought. Statistical results show that the water vapor from southwest of Yunnan in April–June contributes more than that from the east at the seasonal scale. In April–June 2019, however, the southern branch trough(SBT) was abnormally weak, the large and strong anticyclonic wind anomaly prevailed over the Bay of the Bengal(BOB), and the meridional water vapor transport to Yunnan was weak. At the subseasonal scale, the weaker SBT lasted the longest, and the strong convection over the BOB came up late despite of an early onset of the SCSSM, which resulted in reduced low-level moisture convergence in Yunnan and development of drought prior to the SCSSM onset. From the onset of SCSSM to the start of rainy season in SWC, the SBT and meridional water vapor transport from the BOB were still weak, and the water vapor was mainly transported into the coastal area of South and Southeast China rather than Yunnan. After the start of the rainy season in SWC, the SBT was still weak. This led to less moisture transport in the westerlies to the west of Yunnan and the persistent extreme drought. Both the statistical results and case analysis indicate that the stronger Australian high in spring and early summer of 2019 was associated with the abnormally strong anticyclone over the BOB and the always weak SBT. In sum, the anomalous weakness of SBT played a critical role in the extreme drought occurrence and persistence in Yunnan of Southwest China in 2019.
