Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that...Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4-5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.展开更多
Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated...Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated a signiifcant northward shift and westward expansion of northern boundaries for rice planting in the southern China. Compared with the period of 1951-1980, the average temperature during rice growing season in the period of 1981-2010 increased by 0.4°C, and the northern planting boundaries for single rice cropping system (SRCS), early triple cropping rice system (ETCRS), medium triple cropping rice system (MTCRS), and late triple cropping rice system (LTCRS) moved northward by 10, 30, 52 and 66 km, respectively. In addition, compared with the period of 1951-1980, the suitable planting area for SRCS was reduced by 11%during the period of 1981-2010. However, the suitable planting areas for other rice cropping systems increased, with the increasing amplitude of 3, 8, and 10%for ETCRS, MTCRS and LTCRS, respectively. In general, the light and temperature potential productivity of rice decreased by 2.5%. Without considering the change of rice cultivars, the northern planting boundaries for different rice cropping systems showed a northward shift tendency. Climate change resulted in decrease of per unit area yield for SRCS and the annual average yields of ETCRS and LTCRS. Nevertheless, the overall rice production in the entire research area showed a decreasing trend even with the increasing trend of annual average yield for MTCRS.展开更多
Based on the mean yearly precipitation and the total yearly evaporation data of 295 meteorological stations in China in 1951-1999, the aridity index is calculated in this paper. According to the aridity index, the cli...Based on the mean yearly precipitation and the total yearly evaporation data of 295 meteorological stations in China in 1951-1999, the aridity index is calculated in this paper. According to the aridity index, the climatic regions in China are classified into three types, namely, arid region, semi-arid region and humid region. Dry and wet climate boundaries in China fluctuate markedly and differentiate greatly in each region in the past 50 years. The fluctuation amplitudes are 20-400 km in Northeast China, 40-400 km in North China, 30-350 km in the eastern part of Northwest China and 40-370 km in Southwest China. Before the 1980s (including 1980), the climate tended to be dry in Northeast China and North China, to be wet in the eastern part of Northwest China and very wet in Southwest China. Since the 1990s there have been dry signs in Southwest China, the eastern part of Northwest China and North China. The climate becomes wetter in Northeast China. Semi-arid region is the transitional zone between humid and arid regions, the monsoon edge belt in China, and the susceptible region of environmental evolution. At the end of the 1960s dry and wet climate in China witnessed abrupt changes, changing wetness into dryness. Dry and wet climate boundaries show the fluctuation characteristics of the whole shifts and the opposite fluctuations of eastward, westward, southward and northward directions. The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations of climate have distinctive interdecadal features.展开更多
Factor analysis was used to investigate the changes of dry-wet climate in the dry season in Yunnan during 1961-2007 based on observed data from 15 stations.Three common factors were extracted from the 9 climatic facto...Factor analysis was used to investigate the changes of dry-wet climate in the dry season in Yunnan during 1961-2007 based on observed data from 15 stations.Three common factors were extracted from the 9 climatic factors.The results showed that the dry-wet climate has evidently changed since the early 1960s.The general trends in the changes of drywet climate were described as slight decrease in humidity and gradual enhancement in drought intensity.The climate during 1960s-1980s was under weak-medium drought.But since early 1990s,dry conditions have markedly strengthened and continued due to uneven temporal distribution of rainfall and climate warming.展开更多
The internal variability of a ten-member ensemble of the regional climate model REMO over Europe is investigated. It is shown that the annual cycle of internal variability behaves differently compared to earlier studi...The internal variability of a ten-member ensemble of the regional climate model REMO over Europe is investigated. It is shown that the annual cycle of internal variability behaves differently compared to earlier studies that focused on other regions. To gain better insight into the dependence of the internal variability on the boundary forcing variability, a circulation type classification is performed on the forcing data. It can be shown that especially in the winter season internal variability is dependent on the circulation type included in the boundary forcing, whereas in the summer season the level and pattern of internal variability is rather independent from the circulation type of the driving field. It is concluded that for Europe the internal variability of REMO in winter is governed by circulation patterns related to the North-Atlantic Oscillation, whereas in summer local processes play a bigger role.展开更多
The 1228 km over-snow traverse route between the Chinese Zhongshan Station, on the coast of Prydz Bay, and Dome-A, at 4091 m elevation the highest point of the East Antarctic ice sheet, has been the focus of CHINARE s...The 1228 km over-snow traverse route between the Chinese Zhongshan Station, on the coast of Prydz Bay, and Dome-A, at 4091 m elevation the highest point of the East Antarctic ice sheet, has been the focus of CHINARE surface meteorological and climate studies since 2002. A network of seven Automatic Weather Stations has been deployed along this section, including at Dome-A itself, and some of these have now provided nearly-hourly data for over a decade. Atmospheric boundary layer turbulence and radiation observations have been made over the near-coastal ice sheet inland of Zhongshan and surface turbulence measurements using an ultrasonic anemometer system have also been made in the deep interior of the ice sheet. Summer GPS radiosonde soundings of the atmospheric boundary layer have been made at Kunlun Station, near Dome-A. In this paper these observations are combined to provide a comprehensive overview of the meteorological regime of this region of the ice sheet, its climate variability, and as a reference for future study of climate change. This includes investigation of the variation of surface climate features with elevation and distance from the coast, the height and structure of the boundary layer over the ice sheet, and seasonal and regional changes in ice/snow-air interactions, including turbulent and radiative energy fluxes. The air temperature and snow temperature between the coastal Zhongshan and Dome-A on the inland plateau have not changed significantly in the past decade compared with the inter-annual variability.展开更多
Understanding the distribution and dynamics of glaciers is of great significance to the management and allocation of regional water resources and socio-economic development in arid regions of Northwest China.In this s...Understanding the distribution and dynamics of glaciers is of great significance to the management and allocation of regional water resources and socio-economic development in arid regions of Northwest China.In this study,based on 36 Landsat images,we extracted the glacier boundaries in the Manas River Basin,Northwest China from 2000 to 2020 using eCognition combined with band operation,GIS(geographic information system)spatial overlay techniques,and manual visual interpretation.We further analyzed the distribution and variation characteristics of glacier area,and simulated glacial runoff using a distributed degree-day model to explore the regulation of runoff recharge.The results showed that glacier area in the Manas River Basin as a whole showed a downward trend over the past 21 a,with a decrease of 10.86%and an average change rate of–0.54%/a.With the increase in glacier scale,the number of smaller glaciers decreased exponentially,and the number and area of larger glaciers were relatively stable.Glacier area showed a normal distribution trend of increasing first and then decreasing with elevation.About 97.92%of glaciers were distributed at 3700–4800 m,and 48.11%of glaciers were observed on the northern and northeastern slopes.The retreat rate of glaciers was the fastest(68.82%)at elevations below 3800 m.There was a clear rise in elevation at the end of glaciers.Glaciers at different slope directions showed a rapid melting trend from the western slope to the southern slope then to the northern slope.Glacial runoff in the basin showed a fluctuating upward trend in the past 21 a,with an increase rate of 0.03×10^(8) m^(3)/a.The average annual glacial runoff was 4.80×10^(8) m^(3),of which 33.31%was distributed in the ablation season(June–September).The average annual contribution rate of glacial meltwater to river runoff was 35.40%,and glacial runoff accounted for 45.37%of the total runoff during the ablation season.In addition,precipitation and glacial runoff had complementary regulation patterns for river runoff.The findings can provide a scientific basis for water resource management in the Manas River Basin and other similar arid inland river basins.展开更多
The tropical cyclone boundary layer(TCBL)connecting the underlying terrain and the upper atmosphere plays a crucial role in the overall dynamics of a tropical cyclone system.When tropical cyclones approach the coastli...The tropical cyclone boundary layer(TCBL)connecting the underlying terrain and the upper atmosphere plays a crucial role in the overall dynamics of a tropical cyclone system.When tropical cyclones approach the coastline,the wind field inside the TCBL makes a sea-land transition to impact both onshore and offshore structures.So better understanding of the wind field inside the TCBL in the sea-land transition zone is of great importance.To this end,a semiempirical model that integrates the sea-land transition model from the Engineering Sciences Data Unit(ESDU),Huang's refined TCBL wind field model,and the climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)is used to investigate the influence of climate changes on the sea-land transition of the TCBL wind flow in Hong Kong.More specifically,such a semiempirical method is employed in a series of Monte-Carlo simulations to predict the wind profiles inside the TCBL across the coastline of Hong Kong under the impact of future climate changes.The wind profiles calculated based on the Monte-Carlo simulation results reveal that,under the influences of the most severe climate change scenario,slightly higher and significantly lower wind speeds are found at altitudes above and below 400 m,respectively,compared to the wind speeds recommended in the Hong Kong Wind Code of Practice.Such findings imply that the wind profile model currently adopted by the Hong Kong authorities in assessing the safety of low-to high-rise buildings may be unnecessarily over-conservative under the influence of climate change.On the other hand,the coded wind loads on super-tall buildings slightly underestimate the typhoon impacts under the severe climate change conditions anticipated for coastal southern China.展开更多
This article contributes to research on how climate change will impact crops in China by moving from ex-post empirical analysis to forecasting. We construct a multiple regression model, using agricultural observations...This article contributes to research on how climate change will impact crops in China by moving from ex-post empirical analysis to forecasting. We construct a multiple regression model, using agricultural observations and meteorological simulations by GCMs, to simulate the possible planting boundaries and suitable planting re- gions of spring wheat under RCP4.5 scenario for the base period 2040s and 2070s. We find that the south bound- ary of possible planting region for spring wheat spreads along the belt: south Shandong-north Jiangsu-north Anhui-central Henan-north Hubei-southeast Sichuan-north Yunnan provinces, and will likely move northward under RCP4.5 scenario in 2040s and 2070s, resulting in the decrease of possible planting area in China. Moreover, the sowing and harvest date of spring wheat in the base period shows a gradually delayed phenomenon from the belt: south Xinjiang - Gansu, to the Tibet Plateau. As a result, the growth period of spring wheat in China will shorten because of the impacts of climate change. These results imply that a variety of adaptations measures should be set up in response to changing climatic conditions, including developing the planting base for spring wheat, restricting the planting area of spring wheat in sub-suitable areas at risk while expanding the planting area of optimal crops.展开更多
The global climate warming accelerated in the 1980s has become a focus in the world. Based on the month by month and year by year temperature data from 160 representative stations throughout the country during 1951-19...The global climate warming accelerated in the 1980s has become a focus in the world. Based on the month by month and year by year temperature data from 160 representative stations throughout the country during 1951-1999, this paper analyses annual and four seasons’ temperature variations of China since the 1980s. It was found out that the non-equalibrium response with relative great regional and seasonal differences is represented in the country’s climate warming. In regional changes a trend of “warm in the north and cold in the south” occurs whereas in seasonal changes, the characters of “warm in winter and cool in summer” present. Significant verification of the temperature variations conducted in terms of mathematical statistics reveals that a confidence level of over 95% has been basically reached in areas north of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, according to data of diurnal mean temperature steadily passing through accumulated temperature ≥10°C from 335 stations since 1951 or since the founding of the stations in the early 1950s to 1999, comparative analysis of the data of the last 19 years with that of the first 30 years was conducted and the accumulated temperature ≥10°C and the variation range of the persistent number of days ≥10°C were obtained. It was concluded that a general northward shift of central subtropics, north subtropics, warm temperate zone, mesothermal zone and frigid temperate zone of eastern China was observed. The northward shift of north subtropics and warm temperate zone was obvious but changes of south subtropics and marginal tropics were insignificant. In western China, in addition to southwestern Yunnan, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Inner Mongolia where the temperature zones of each either shifted northward or trended to move upward, not much changes were found in other areas or they shifted southward slightly and declined.展开更多
A numerical model has been developed for simulating land-surface processes and atmospheric boundary layer climate of vegetation and desert in semi-arid region.Dynamically,thermal and hydrological processes take place ...A numerical model has been developed for simulating land-surface processes and atmospheric boundary layer climate of vegetation and desert in semi-arid region.Dynamically,thermal and hydrological processes take place in the atmospheric boundary layer.Vegetation and surface layer of soil are included in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere coupled system,in which,vegetation is considered as a horizontally uniform layer,soil is divided into 13 layers and the horizontal differences of variables in the system are neglected.The influence of local boundary layer climate by vegetation cover factor is simulated with the coupled model in the semi-arid region of Northwest China (around 38°N,105°E).Results indicate that due to significant differences of water and energy budgets in vegetation and desert region,the air is colder and wetter over the vegetation and correspondingly an obvious local circulation in the lower atmosphere is formed. Simulating results also show that maximum updraft and downdraft occur around the vegetation-desert marginal area,where the dynamical and thermodynamical properties of PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer) are uncontinuous.It is stronger at daytime,weaker and reverse at nighttime.In the simulation,the moisture inversion phenomena are analyzed.Finally.the influences of vegetation cover factor exchange on local boundary layer climate are simulated.The simulating results bring to light that water may be conserved and improved by developing tree planting and afforestation,and improving cover factor of vegetation in local ecoenvironment,and this is an important way of transforming local climate in arid and semi-arid area.Results indicate that the coupled model can be used to study the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction and local boundary layer climate.展开更多
Based on yearly precipitation and Φ20 evaporation pan data during 1951 to 1999 of 295 stations,the aridity index is calculated in this paper.According to the aridity index,the climatic regions in China are divided in...Based on yearly precipitation and Φ20 evaporation pan data during 1951 to 1999 of 295 stations,the aridity index is calculated in this paper.According to the aridity index,the climatic regions in China are divided into three types:the arid zone,the semi-arid zone and the humid zone. Isoline 0.20 is the boundary between arid and semi-arid zones.Isoline 0.50 is the boundary between semi-arid and humid zones.The fluctuations of dry and wet climate boundaries are very substantial,have greatly regional difference,and have the features of the whole shifting along the same direction and of the opposite moving along the contrary direction over the past 50 years.The semi-arid zone is a transitional zone between humid and arid zones,a border belt of monsoon,and a susceptible zone of environmental evolution in China. In the period of the late 1960s to the early 1970s,remarkable change had occurred for dry and wet climate in China.It manifests significantly that climate is from wetter into drought in most regions of northern China.Moreover,drought has an increasing trend.The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations in climate have substantial inter-decadal features. The main factors affecting the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and the dry and wet variations of climate in China are East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon in the Tibetan Plateau,westerly circulation,and West Pacific subtropical high.The different types of circulations and the strong and weak combinations of these circulations result in the regional differences of dry and wet climate changes in China.Inter-decadal variations of the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and of the arid and humid climate result from the inter-decadal changes of East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon,westerly circulation, and West Pacific subtropical high.The anomalous general atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the late 1960s to the early 1970s is the causes of arid and humid climate remarkable change in China.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos40890053,90502001,and 90711003)
文摘Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4-5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB951502)the Special Fund for Meteorology-Scientific Research in the Public Interest,China(GYHY201106020)
文摘Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated a signiifcant northward shift and westward expansion of northern boundaries for rice planting in the southern China. Compared with the period of 1951-1980, the average temperature during rice growing season in the period of 1981-2010 increased by 0.4°C, and the northern planting boundaries for single rice cropping system (SRCS), early triple cropping rice system (ETCRS), medium triple cropping rice system (MTCRS), and late triple cropping rice system (LTCRS) moved northward by 10, 30, 52 and 66 km, respectively. In addition, compared with the period of 1951-1980, the suitable planting area for SRCS was reduced by 11%during the period of 1981-2010. However, the suitable planting areas for other rice cropping systems increased, with the increasing amplitude of 3, 8, and 10%for ETCRS, MTCRS and LTCRS, respectively. In general, the light and temperature potential productivity of rice decreased by 2.5%. Without considering the change of rice cultivars, the northern planting boundaries for different rice cropping systems showed a northward shift tendency. Climate change resulted in decrease of per unit area yield for SRCS and the annual average yields of ETCRS and LTCRS. Nevertheless, the overall rice production in the entire research area showed a decreasing trend even with the increasing trend of annual average yield for MTCRS.
基金The Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS NO. KZCX1-10-06
文摘Based on the mean yearly precipitation and the total yearly evaporation data of 295 meteorological stations in China in 1951-1999, the aridity index is calculated in this paper. According to the aridity index, the climatic regions in China are classified into three types, namely, arid region, semi-arid region and humid region. Dry and wet climate boundaries in China fluctuate markedly and differentiate greatly in each region in the past 50 years. The fluctuation amplitudes are 20-400 km in Northeast China, 40-400 km in North China, 30-350 km in the eastern part of Northwest China and 40-370 km in Southwest China. Before the 1980s (including 1980), the climate tended to be dry in Northeast China and North China, to be wet in the eastern part of Northwest China and very wet in Southwest China. Since the 1990s there have been dry signs in Southwest China, the eastern part of Northwest China and North China. The climate becomes wetter in Northeast China. Semi-arid region is the transitional zone between humid and arid regions, the monsoon edge belt in China, and the susceptible region of environmental evolution. At the end of the 1960s dry and wet climate in China witnessed abrupt changes, changing wetness into dryness. Dry and wet climate boundaries show the fluctuation characteristics of the whole shifts and the opposite fluctuations of eastward, westward, southward and northward directions. The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations of climate have distinctive interdecadal features.
基金supported by the program(40675045) from the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Factor analysis was used to investigate the changes of dry-wet climate in the dry season in Yunnan during 1961-2007 based on observed data from 15 stations.Three common factors were extracted from the 9 climatic factors.The results showed that the dry-wet climate has evidently changed since the early 1960s.The general trends in the changes of drywet climate were described as slight decrease in humidity and gradual enhancement in drought intensity.The climate during 1960s-1980s was under weak-medium drought.But since early 1990s,dry conditions have markedly strengthened and continued due to uneven temporal distribution of rainfall and climate warming.
文摘The internal variability of a ten-member ensemble of the regional climate model REMO over Europe is investigated. It is shown that the annual cycle of internal variability behaves differently compared to earlier studies that focused on other regions. To gain better insight into the dependence of the internal variability on the boundary forcing variability, a circulation type classification is performed on the forcing data. It can be shown that especially in the winter season internal variability is dependent on the circulation type included in the boundary forcing, whereas in the summer season the level and pattern of internal variability is rather independent from the circulation type of the driving field. It is concluded that for Europe the internal variability of REMO in winter is governed by circulation patterns related to the North-Atlantic Oscillation, whereas in summer local processes play a bigger role.
基金supported by the Chinese Polar Environment Comprehensive Investigation and Assessment Program(Grant no.CHINARE 2015-2016)supported by the Australian Government's Cooperative Research Centres Program through the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
文摘The 1228 km over-snow traverse route between the Chinese Zhongshan Station, on the coast of Prydz Bay, and Dome-A, at 4091 m elevation the highest point of the East Antarctic ice sheet, has been the focus of CHINARE surface meteorological and climate studies since 2002. A network of seven Automatic Weather Stations has been deployed along this section, including at Dome-A itself, and some of these have now provided nearly-hourly data for over a decade. Atmospheric boundary layer turbulence and radiation observations have been made over the near-coastal ice sheet inland of Zhongshan and surface turbulence measurements using an ultrasonic anemometer system have also been made in the deep interior of the ice sheet. Summer GPS radiosonde soundings of the atmospheric boundary layer have been made at Kunlun Station, near Dome-A. In this paper these observations are combined to provide a comprehensive overview of the meteorological regime of this region of the ice sheet, its climate variability, and as a reference for future study of climate change. This includes investigation of the variation of surface climate features with elevation and distance from the coast, the height and structure of the boundary layer over the ice sheet, and seasonal and regional changes in ice/snow-air interactions, including turbulent and radiative energy fluxes. The air temperature and snow temperature between the coastal Zhongshan and Dome-A on the inland plateau have not changed significantly in the past decade compared with the inter-annual variability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52169005)the Support Plan for Innovation and Development of Key Industries in southern Xinjiang,China(2022DB024)the Corps Science and Technology Innovation Talents Program Project of China(2023CB008-08).
文摘Understanding the distribution and dynamics of glaciers is of great significance to the management and allocation of regional water resources and socio-economic development in arid regions of Northwest China.In this study,based on 36 Landsat images,we extracted the glacier boundaries in the Manas River Basin,Northwest China from 2000 to 2020 using eCognition combined with band operation,GIS(geographic information system)spatial overlay techniques,and manual visual interpretation.We further analyzed the distribution and variation characteristics of glacier area,and simulated glacial runoff using a distributed degree-day model to explore the regulation of runoff recharge.The results showed that glacier area in the Manas River Basin as a whole showed a downward trend over the past 21 a,with a decrease of 10.86%and an average change rate of–0.54%/a.With the increase in glacier scale,the number of smaller glaciers decreased exponentially,and the number and area of larger glaciers were relatively stable.Glacier area showed a normal distribution trend of increasing first and then decreasing with elevation.About 97.92%of glaciers were distributed at 3700–4800 m,and 48.11%of glaciers were observed on the northern and northeastern slopes.The retreat rate of glaciers was the fastest(68.82%)at elevations below 3800 m.There was a clear rise in elevation at the end of glaciers.Glaciers at different slope directions showed a rapid melting trend from the western slope to the southern slope then to the northern slope.Glacial runoff in the basin showed a fluctuating upward trend in the past 21 a,with an increase rate of 0.03×10^(8) m^(3)/a.The average annual glacial runoff was 4.80×10^(8) m^(3),of which 33.31%was distributed in the ablation season(June–September).The average annual contribution rate of glacial meltwater to river runoff was 35.40%,and glacial runoff accounted for 45.37%of the total runoff during the ablation season.In addition,precipitation and glacial runoff had complementary regulation patterns for river runoff.The findings can provide a scientific basis for water resource management in the Manas River Basin and other similar arid inland river basins.
基金supported by the grants from the Research Grants Council(RGC)of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region(HKSAR),China with GRF No.16207118Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission(Project No.WDZC20200819174646001)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Project No.2022B 1515130006)。
文摘The tropical cyclone boundary layer(TCBL)connecting the underlying terrain and the upper atmosphere plays a crucial role in the overall dynamics of a tropical cyclone system.When tropical cyclones approach the coastline,the wind field inside the TCBL makes a sea-land transition to impact both onshore and offshore structures.So better understanding of the wind field inside the TCBL in the sea-land transition zone is of great importance.To this end,a semiempirical model that integrates the sea-land transition model from the Engineering Sciences Data Unit(ESDU),Huang's refined TCBL wind field model,and the climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)is used to investigate the influence of climate changes on the sea-land transition of the TCBL wind flow in Hong Kong.More specifically,such a semiempirical method is employed in a series of Monte-Carlo simulations to predict the wind profiles inside the TCBL across the coastline of Hong Kong under the impact of future climate changes.The wind profiles calculated based on the Monte-Carlo simulation results reveal that,under the influences of the most severe climate change scenario,slightly higher and significantly lower wind speeds are found at altitudes above and below 400 m,respectively,compared to the wind speeds recommended in the Hong Kong Wind Code of Practice.Such findings imply that the wind profile model currently adopted by the Hong Kong authorities in assessing the safety of low-to high-rise buildings may be unnecessarily over-conservative under the influence of climate change.On the other hand,the coded wind loads on super-tall buildings slightly underestimate the typhoon impacts under the severe climate change conditions anticipated for coastal southern China.
基金National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(Study on allocation of water and land resources based on food security at population peaks in ChinaNo.41471463)
文摘This article contributes to research on how climate change will impact crops in China by moving from ex-post empirical analysis to forecasting. We construct a multiple regression model, using agricultural observations and meteorological simulations by GCMs, to simulate the possible planting boundaries and suitable planting re- gions of spring wheat under RCP4.5 scenario for the base period 2040s and 2070s. We find that the south bound- ary of possible planting region for spring wheat spreads along the belt: south Shandong-north Jiangsu-north Anhui-central Henan-north Hubei-southeast Sichuan-north Yunnan provinces, and will likely move northward under RCP4.5 scenario in 2040s and 2070s, resulting in the decrease of possible planting area in China. Moreover, the sowing and harvest date of spring wheat in the base period shows a gradually delayed phenomenon from the belt: south Xinjiang - Gansu, to the Tibet Plateau. As a result, the growth period of spring wheat in China will shorten because of the impacts of climate change. These results imply that a variety of adaptations measures should be set up in response to changing climatic conditions, including developing the planting base for spring wheat, restricting the planting area of spring wheat in sub-suitable areas at risk while expanding the planting area of optimal crops.
基金This is the key project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49731020)
文摘The global climate warming accelerated in the 1980s has become a focus in the world. Based on the month by month and year by year temperature data from 160 representative stations throughout the country during 1951-1999, this paper analyses annual and four seasons’ temperature variations of China since the 1980s. It was found out that the non-equalibrium response with relative great regional and seasonal differences is represented in the country’s climate warming. In regional changes a trend of “warm in the north and cold in the south” occurs whereas in seasonal changes, the characters of “warm in winter and cool in summer” present. Significant verification of the temperature variations conducted in terms of mathematical statistics reveals that a confidence level of over 95% has been basically reached in areas north of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, according to data of diurnal mean temperature steadily passing through accumulated temperature ≥10°C from 335 stations since 1951 or since the founding of the stations in the early 1950s to 1999, comparative analysis of the data of the last 19 years with that of the first 30 years was conducted and the accumulated temperature ≥10°C and the variation range of the persistent number of days ≥10°C were obtained. It was concluded that a general northward shift of central subtropics, north subtropics, warm temperate zone, mesothermal zone and frigid temperate zone of eastern China was observed. The northward shift of north subtropics and warm temperate zone was obvious but changes of south subtropics and marginal tropics were insignificant. In western China, in addition to southwestern Yunnan, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Inner Mongolia where the temperature zones of each either shifted northward or trended to move upward, not much changes were found in other areas or they shifted southward slightly and declined.
文摘A numerical model has been developed for simulating land-surface processes and atmospheric boundary layer climate of vegetation and desert in semi-arid region.Dynamically,thermal and hydrological processes take place in the atmospheric boundary layer.Vegetation and surface layer of soil are included in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere coupled system,in which,vegetation is considered as a horizontally uniform layer,soil is divided into 13 layers and the horizontal differences of variables in the system are neglected.The influence of local boundary layer climate by vegetation cover factor is simulated with the coupled model in the semi-arid region of Northwest China (around 38°N,105°E).Results indicate that due to significant differences of water and energy budgets in vegetation and desert region,the air is colder and wetter over the vegetation and correspondingly an obvious local circulation in the lower atmosphere is formed. Simulating results also show that maximum updraft and downdraft occur around the vegetation-desert marginal area,where the dynamical and thermodynamical properties of PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer) are uncontinuous.It is stronger at daytime,weaker and reverse at nighttime.In the simulation,the moisture inversion phenomena are analyzed.Finally.the influences of vegetation cover factor exchange on local boundary layer climate are simulated.The simulating results bring to light that water may be conserved and improved by developing tree planting and afforestation,and improving cover factor of vegetation in local ecoenvironment,and this is an important way of transforming local climate in arid and semi-arid area.Results indicate that the coupled model can be used to study the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction and local boundary layer climate.
基金a grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40301010)the Project of Knowledge Innovation of CAS (No.KZCX1-10-06)
文摘Based on yearly precipitation and Φ20 evaporation pan data during 1951 to 1999 of 295 stations,the aridity index is calculated in this paper.According to the aridity index,the climatic regions in China are divided into three types:the arid zone,the semi-arid zone and the humid zone. Isoline 0.20 is the boundary between arid and semi-arid zones.Isoline 0.50 is the boundary between semi-arid and humid zones.The fluctuations of dry and wet climate boundaries are very substantial,have greatly regional difference,and have the features of the whole shifting along the same direction and of the opposite moving along the contrary direction over the past 50 years.The semi-arid zone is a transitional zone between humid and arid zones,a border belt of monsoon,and a susceptible zone of environmental evolution in China. In the period of the late 1960s to the early 1970s,remarkable change had occurred for dry and wet climate in China.It manifests significantly that climate is from wetter into drought in most regions of northern China.Moreover,drought has an increasing trend.The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations in climate have substantial inter-decadal features. The main factors affecting the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and the dry and wet variations of climate in China are East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon in the Tibetan Plateau,westerly circulation,and West Pacific subtropical high.The different types of circulations and the strong and weak combinations of these circulations result in the regional differences of dry and wet climate changes in China.Inter-decadal variations of the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and of the arid and humid climate result from the inter-decadal changes of East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon,westerly circulation, and West Pacific subtropical high.The anomalous general atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the late 1960s to the early 1970s is the causes of arid and humid climate remarkable change in China.