干旱地区极端降水事件往往会造成巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失,研究其演变特征及成因有利于提升该类天气的预报准确率。2022年8月13日西北干旱区甘肃省金塔县出现暴雨天气,日降水量和小时降水量均突破河西走廊国家级气象站历史极值,极端性...干旱地区极端降水事件往往会造成巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失,研究其演变特征及成因有利于提升该类天气的预报准确率。2022年8月13日西北干旱区甘肃省金塔县出现暴雨天气,日降水量和小时降水量均突破河西走廊国家级气象站历史极值,极端性、局地性特征显著。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)第5代全球大气再分析产品ERA5和实况观测资料对其成因进行分析。结果表明:暴雨出现在稳定的南亚高压北侧,对流层中、高层动力强迫较弱,斜压系统主要位于低层,为500 hPa短波槽前的低层切变线和地面冷锋;青藏高原热低压外围的低层水汽持续输送,形成了暴雨区局地性的极端水汽条件和中等强度的层结不稳定;地面冷锋前部,酒泉中东部低层水汽输送的区域差异形成了明显的湿度锋区和干线;造成极端短时强降水的中-γ尺度对流系统由干线触发,在冷锋和干线的交叉点处发展为导致极端暴雨的深厚湿对流,干线对流单体发展到深厚湿对流过程具有显著局地性特征。展开更多
The initiation processes of one of the initial convective cells near and on the east side of a dryline on 19 June 2002 during the IHOP 2002 field experiment in the central United States is analyzed in detail based on ...The initiation processes of one of the initial convective cells near and on the east side of a dryline on 19 June 2002 during the IHOP 2002 field experiment in the central United States is analyzed in detail based on a high-resolution numerical simulation. Prominent horizontal convective rolls and associated near-surface moisture convergence bands [called roll convergence bands(RCBs) here] develop within the convective boundary layer(CBL) due to surface heating, in the hours leading to convective initiation(CI). The RCBs east of the dryline are advected toward the primary dryline convergence boundary(PDCB) by the southerly moist flow as the CBL deepens with time. Backward trajectories of air parcels forming the initial precipitating updraft of the convective cell are found to primarily originate at about 1–1.5 km above ground, within the upper portion of the shallower CBL earlier on. The representative air parcel is found to follow and stay on top of a surface RCB as the RCB moves toward the PDCB, but the RCB forcing alone is not enough to initiate convection. As this RCB gets close to the PDCB, it moves into a zone of mesoscale convergence and a deeper CBL that exhibits an upward moisture bulge associated with the PDCB. The combined upward forcing of the RCB and the mesoscale PDCB convergence quickly lifts the representative air parcel above its level of free convection to initiate convection. A conceptual model summarizing the CI processes is proposed.展开更多
文摘干旱地区极端降水事件往往会造成巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失,研究其演变特征及成因有利于提升该类天气的预报准确率。2022年8月13日西北干旱区甘肃省金塔县出现暴雨天气,日降水量和小时降水量均突破河西走廊国家级气象站历史极值,极端性、局地性特征显著。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)第5代全球大气再分析产品ERA5和实况观测资料对其成因进行分析。结果表明:暴雨出现在稳定的南亚高压北侧,对流层中、高层动力强迫较弱,斜压系统主要位于低层,为500 hPa短波槽前的低层切变线和地面冷锋;青藏高原热低压外围的低层水汽持续输送,形成了暴雨区局地性的极端水汽条件和中等强度的层结不稳定;地面冷锋前部,酒泉中东部低层水汽输送的区域差异形成了明显的湿度锋区和干线;造成极端短时强降水的中-γ尺度对流系统由干线触发,在冷锋和干线的交叉点处发展为导致极端暴雨的深厚湿对流,干线对流单体发展到深厚湿对流过程具有显著局地性特征。
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC1501603)the China National Program on Key Basic Research Project (973 Program) (Grant No. 2013CB430103)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants Nos. 41775054, 41375061 and 40705019)
文摘The initiation processes of one of the initial convective cells near and on the east side of a dryline on 19 June 2002 during the IHOP 2002 field experiment in the central United States is analyzed in detail based on a high-resolution numerical simulation. Prominent horizontal convective rolls and associated near-surface moisture convergence bands [called roll convergence bands(RCBs) here] develop within the convective boundary layer(CBL) due to surface heating, in the hours leading to convective initiation(CI). The RCBs east of the dryline are advected toward the primary dryline convergence boundary(PDCB) by the southerly moist flow as the CBL deepens with time. Backward trajectories of air parcels forming the initial precipitating updraft of the convective cell are found to primarily originate at about 1–1.5 km above ground, within the upper portion of the shallower CBL earlier on. The representative air parcel is found to follow and stay on top of a surface RCB as the RCB moves toward the PDCB, but the RCB forcing alone is not enough to initiate convection. As this RCB gets close to the PDCB, it moves into a zone of mesoscale convergence and a deeper CBL that exhibits an upward moisture bulge associated with the PDCB. The combined upward forcing of the RCB and the mesoscale PDCB convergence quickly lifts the representative air parcel above its level of free convection to initiate convection. A conceptual model summarizing the CI processes is proposed.
