Analysis on Trade Gains from the Economic Dual Circulation in China

Accelerating the building of a new development pattern with domestic market as the mainstay and domestic and international markets reinforcing each other is a major decision made by the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core in light of changes in the development stage,environment and conditions in China.Trade gains are an important indicator of the development trend of domestic and international circulations for a country.With the quantitative model of trade gains containing the multi-sectoral input-output relations,this paper estimates the trade gains from the economic dual circulation in China between 1987 and 2017,based on the kernel density estimation and Markov chain,and the main findings are as follows.(1)The trade gains from the domestic circulation in China showed a downward trend,while the trade gains from the international circulation presented a trend of first rising and then declining.But the former still outweighed the latter.(2)Compared with the international circulation,the continuity,spatial correlation effect and rising potential of the trade gains from China's domestic circulation were greater.(3)There was no positive spatial correlation effect between the trade gains from the domestic and those from the international circulation.China should make overall plans for opening up both externally and internally,and unblock sticking points between the two circulations,so as to realize the positive interaction of the trade gains from the dual circulation,and accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with domestic market as the mainstay and domestic and international markets reinforcing each other.

Demand-Side Reform:A New Mission to Promote the Dual Circulation Development Pattern

Beginning with increasing effective demand,thedemand-sidereformadvocates for the strategy to expand domestic demand,rectifies distortions in the demand structure,and further aligns demand and supply by reforming the mechanisms for demand formation and regulation,matching supply and demand structures,and easing restrictions on demand.This will enhance economic growth potential and operational efficiency.The demandside reform contributes to developing a super-large-scale market and optimize market functions to form a unified national market.It also helps address significant structural distortions within domestic circulation and move faster to form a new development pattern of dual circulation.As demand-side reform inevitably deals with the vested interests of stakeholders,it presents challenges on par with supplyside structural reform.Therefore,due attention must be given in terms of priority and weight by increasing operational and property household income,transforming governmentt functions,rectifying any excessive market-orientedreforms in certain public service sectors,among others.

Development Reorientation of China's Free Trade Zones under the New Development Paradigm of Dual Circulation:On the Reform Path of Free Trade Zones for the High-Quality Development of China's Economy

Against the backdrop of China's development reality for the time being and upholding the basic logic of boosting the high-quality development of China's economy,the authors give the historical background,realisticclogic,theoretical connotation,and strategic significance of the new development paradigm of dual circulation a thorough interpretation.On this basis,the authors conduct a detailed analysis of the development path between China's Free Trade Zones(FTZs)and the new development paradigm of dual circulation,as well as the new orientation of FTZs under this paradigm.Focusing on systems thinking,the new development paradigm of dual circulation not only opens up a new realm of open economic theory with Chinese characteristics but also enriches the socialist political economy with Chinese characteristics.From the perspective of the new development paradigm of dual circulation,China's FTZs serve as a reform test field and a powerful starting point for driving the high-quality circulation ofChina's economy.From another perspective,it is also an open bridgehead and a significant window for China to participate in international economic circulation.In this sense,China's FTZs remain the key hub linking domestic and international circulations.China's FTZs should be given greater reform autonomy.Whilefocusinggon the differentiated exploration and development models,the dividends of the first trial system should be fully utilized to integrate China's FTZs into the national open development strategy.Thus,high-level open practice can be anticipated to boost the virtuous circle of domestic and foreign economies,with concerted efforts and drive China's economy toward a high-quality future.

Chinese Economy under the New"Dual Circulation"Strategy:Challenges and Opportunities-A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report(2020-2021)

Entering year 2020,the Chinese economy was struck by the COVID-19 outbreak.The unprecedented pandemic,entangled with the already elevated complexities in the nation's internal environment and external surroundings,aggravated its economic outlook.Internal factors including severe education mismatch in China's labor force,its vanishing demographic dividend,the declined purchasing power of its middle-income groups,risen leverage ratio of households and enterprises,and soared local government debt reinforced to weaken China's domestic demand.External factors,especially uncertainty in the China-US relation in the face of the re-shaping global value chain,dragged world economic recovery and thus China's exports and imports.This summary report highlights some major challenges and opportunities faced by the nation under its new development strategy that stresses internal circulation of domestic economy aided by its interaction with the globe.Our analyses based on IAR-CMM model provide a unified framework for addressing China's short-,medium-,and long-term issues in an internally coherent manner.Looking into year 2021,our benchmark projection reports an 8.4%annual real GDP growth rate.Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the impacts of potential downside risks and the corresponding policy options for ensuring implicit targets.Through the lens of these analyses,we conclude that a refocus on effective management of internal demand,while deepening structural reforms on supply side and advancing orderly opening up,can help smooth the internal and external circulations of the Chinese economy to achieve high-quality development.

Dual Circulation and China's Development

In 2020,China proposed a new development paradigm centered on domestic circulation with a"dual circulation"model in which domestic circulation and international circulation promote each other.This new paradigm reflects a clear understanding of China's development trend that saw its share of exports in the GDP declining steadily since 2006.However,the new paradigm does not necessarily mean that China should change its past policy of fully utilizing domestic and international markets and resources in economic development.Because of large economies of scale in modern manufacturing sector,China should continue to make full use of international markets.

Promoting the Integration of China’s Tourism Industry into the New Development Pattern with Dual Circulation

Tourism is increasingly prominent for economic and social development,both as a strategic pillar industry of national economy and as a modern service industry that satisfies people’s aspirations for a better life.This paper probes into tourism development and opening up from the perspective of the new development pattern with dual circulation,which is of practical implications for the tourism development.Balancedly developing domestic and inbound and outbound tourism-accelerating domestic tourism,expanding inbound tourism,and regulating outbound tourism-is an important way for tourism integrating into the new development pattern.For this point,it is essential to fully play the decisive role of market mechanisms and better play the regulatory role of the government.Multiple measures should be taken for the rapid,high-quality and sustainable development of tourism and for the mutual promotion of domestic and international tourism,so as to lay the foundation for making China to be a world tourism power.

Bed inventory balance and stability of dual circulating fluidized bed systems

Experiments and modelling are conducted for general understanding on the imbalance phenomenon and for discussion on the strategies to improve the bed inventory balance and stability of a dual circulating fluidized bed(DCFB)system.The experiments are carried out in a 15.5 m high pilot-scale DCFB cold test system.A fluid-dynamic DCFB model is developed based on a 1.5-dimensional semi-empirical model of an industrial CFB boiler,validated by experimental data.The effects of control methods and operation conditions on the bed inventory balance and on the stability of the pilot-and large-scale DCFB systems are discussed.A"stable-unbalanced"state,where the system reaches a steady state,consisting of un-balanced bed inventories,is observed in both experiments and model simulation.To maintain a balanced state and similar bed inventory in the DCFB systems with similar cross-sectional areas,it is recom-mended to keep similar total pressure drops or gas velocities in both reactors.

Digital Transformation:Reshaping China’s Development Landscape

The Chinese economy is currently undergoing a digital transformation.New growth drivers are replacing old ones,creating a new development landscape.Countries with strong digital industries will be the first to reap the benefits of digitalization.For China,the transformation to a digital economy is both of inevitability and heterogeneity fueled by dual circulations.Crowded out from more skill-based digitalized sectors,less-skilled labor moves to less digitalized sectors.New capital,industries and technology clusters emerge as new drivers of manufacturing and service sector development.With its large domestic market and industrial competitiveness,China has fostered a new development landscape of“dual circulations”.

China’s Economic Growth and High-Quality Development:2020-2035

The time period between 2020 and 2035 is vital for China to achieve its second centennial goal.During this period,China must avoid the middle-income trap and achieve socialist modernization.To accomplish this goal,China must maintain a certain pace of economic growth and strive to double its real GDP per capita by 2035.However,by the current growth trajectory,China’s average economic growth rate is expected to stay at approximately 3.8%over the period between 2020-2035.This makes the GDP per capita growth target hard to achieve.Even when in a high-quality development stage,China should speed up economic growth while enhancing growth quality.Speed and quality are interdependent rather than contradictory with each other.To ramp up economic growth potentials,China must proceed with market-oriented reforms and shift economic growth drivers.To improve economic growth quality,household consumption should be increased to unleash China’s full potential,not only as the factory floor of the world but also one of world’s biggest markets,i.e.“dual circulations.”With appropriate policy response,China’s economy will be poised to achieve the goal of doubling real GDP per capita by 2035,marking a large stride in its economic aggregate and urban and rural household per capita incomes.

Chemical-looping gasification of biomass in a 10 kW_(th) interconnected fluidized bed reactor using Fe_2O_3/Al_2O_3 oxygen carrier

Abstract:The aim of this research is to design and operate a 10 kW hot chemical-looping gasification(CLG)unit using Fe2O3/Al2O3as an oxygen carrier and saw dust as a fuel.The effect of the operation temperature on gas composition in the air reactor and the fuel reactor,and the carbon conversion of biomass to CO2and CO in the fuel reactor have been experimentally studied.A total60 h run has been obtained with the same batch of oxygen carrier of iron oxide supported with alumina.The results show that CO and H2concentrations are increased with increasing temperature in the fuel reactor.It is also found that with increasing fuel reactor temperature,both the amount of residual char in the fuel reactor and CO2concentration of the exit gas from the air reactor are degreased.Carbon conversion rate and gasification efficiency are increased by increasing temperature and H2production at 870℃reaches the highest rate.Scanning electron microscopy(SEM),X-ray diffraction(XRD)and BET-surface area tests have been used to characterize fresh and reacted oxygen carrier particles.The results display that the oxygen carrier activity is not declined and the specific surface area of the oxygen carrier particles is not decreased significantly.

The Connotation and Implementation of Demand-Side Management:From the Perspective of“Macro-Policy Trinity”

As an important strategic direction of China's 14th Five-Year Plan,strengthening demand-side management aims to build an effective system to boost domestic demand,establish a complete demand system,and develop a robust domestic market,thereby promoting the realization of the growth goals by 2035 and the second centenary goal by the mid-21st century.Different from traditional aggregate demand management,demandside management introduces a host of new attributes pertaining to its regulatory scope,regulatory goal,regulatory strategy,regulatorytarget,andregulatoryinstrument.Demand-side management does not seek to replace aggregate demand management;rather,both assume pivotal roles in macrocontrol and their coordination are of utmost importance.In real scenarios,demandside management should synergize with supply-side structural reform,which is helpful to foster a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.To effectively implement demand-side management,it is imperative not to replicate the approach used in aggregateedemand management.Only by further innovating and improving the macro-control system with Chinese characteristics and coordinating the stability policy,growth policy and structural policy can the demand-side management be truly implemented under the new framework of“Macro-policy Trinity.”

Research on the Scientific Connotation of New Development Pattern

General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important exposition on building the new development pattern is an important theoretical viewpoint of socialist political economy with Chinese characteristics.The theory is to understand and reveal the objective law of the development of things,which requires us to use the theoretical method of economics to demonstrate the understanding and grasp of the objective law of the economy.The ideological source of the important exposition on new development pattern can only be explored in Marxist theory.Marx’s surplus value theory is based on an analysis of the economic cycle of capitalist domestic production,distribution,circulation and consumption,and reveals the general law of socialized mass production.The important exposition on the new development pattern is precisely the application,innovation and development of this scientific principle under the condition of socialist economy.Scholars should not examine,understand or explain the objective requirement of“taking the domestic market as the mainstay”from the perspective of“dependence on foreign trade”.An empirical study on the contribution of China’s three major demands to economic growth shows that the important judgment on the new development pattern not only reveals the basic characteristics of China’s economic development,but also points out its future trend.That“domestic and overseas markets reinforce each other”is not only a summary of China’s historical practice in its economic interaction with the rest of the world,but also denies the one-sided theoretical viewpoint in Western mainstream international economics,and reveals the objective law of the dynamic balance between China and the open world economy on the basis of pluralistic balance.The important exposition on the new development pattern also contains the main contents of how to implement the new development philosophy and deepen the reform inevitable in building a modern socialist country in the new development stage.It is the theoretical cornerstone of the guilding ideology of deepening reform.

Theory and Practice of the New Pattern of Development

The new dual circulation development pattern is not only a far-sighted strategy based on current economic development,but is also grounded in economic theories(such as theory of economic development of large countries,economic growth theory,international trade theory,new economic geography theory,and Marxist political economics theory).Among them,Marxist political economy is the keystone theory as the domestic circulation reflects Marx's theories of capital turnover and social reproduction,the international circulation involves the theories of spatial production and world market put forward in the book Capital,and the"dual circulation"theory,which combines both,shows Marx's theory of the organic composition of capital.The proposal of"dual circulation"mechanism is an innovative proposition in the theoretical study of socialist political economy with Chinese characteristics.The important practical innovation of building the new pattern of development will open a new chapter of socialist development with Chinese characteristics in the new era,the reasons for which are as follows:Scientific understanding of the historical orientation of the new development stage is the foundation for building a new pattern of development,with the domestic circulation leading the international one,and realizing the combination and coordination of efficient market and effective government as the policy base for its smooth implementation.The main means to build the new pattern of development is to deepen reform and expand opening-up.