Social–financial approach for analyzing financial transitions

This study proposes a social-financial approach(SFA)to fill the methodological research gap in strategic policy design for managing financial transitions during social changes.The SFA seeks to characterize inclusive transitions in response to innovation and analyze financial management in social changes.Using a multilevel perspective,we combine evolutionary finance and inclusive growth analytics into this framework.We contend that the interaction between the different levels can be summarized as spontaneous adjustments and the alignment of financial elements with the indicators.Actors who attempt to achieve their goals based on past performance evaluations and other forms of bounded rationality strive to cope with adjustments and further trigger a reorientation of the existing regime.We also developed a new configuration tool called the three-axis description to describe the evolution of financial transitions at different stages.These methods allow us to analyze the evolution of financial transition and efficiency,and we argue that market efficiency evolves in stages with the finan-cial transition.Finally,to demonstrate the capability of SFA to identify diverse financial transition pathways,we examined an example case:the establishment of the Bretton Woods System.

Bayesian inference of the crust–core transition density via the neutron-star radius and neutron-skin thickness data

In this work,we perform a Bayesian inference of the crust-core transition density ρ_(t) of neutron stars based on the neutron-star radius and neutron-skin thickness data using a thermodynamical method.Uniform and Gaussian distributions for the ρ_(t) prior were adopted in the Bayesian approach.It has a larger probability of having values higher than 0.1 fm^(−3) for ρ_(t) as the uniform prior and neutron-star radius data were used.This was found to be controlled by the curvature K_(sym) of the nuclear symmetry energy.This phenomenon did not occur if K_(sym) was not extremely negative,namely,K_(sym)>−200 MeV.The value ofρ_(t) obtained was 0.075_(−0.01)^(+0.005) fm^(−3) at a confidence level of 68%when both the neutron-star radius and neutron-skin thickness data were considered.Strong anti-correlations were observed between ρ_(t),slope L,and curvature of the nuclear symmetry energy.The dependence of the three L-K_(sym) correlations predicted in the literature on crust-core density and pressure was quantitatively investigated.The most probable value of 0.08 fm^(−3) for ρ_(t) was obtained from the L-K_(sym) relationship proposed by Holt et al.while larger values were preferred for the other two relationships.

Optimal Precursors Triggering the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Obtained by the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Approach

In this study, the initial perturbations that are the easiest to trigger the Kuroshio Extension （KE） transition connecting a basic weak jet state and a strong, fairly stable meandering state, are investigated using a reduced-gravity shallow water ocean model and the CNOP （Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation） approach. This kind of initial perturbation is called an optimal precursor （OPR）. The spatial structures and evolutionary processes of the OPRs are analyzed in detail. The results show that most of the OPRs are in the form of negative sea surface height （SSH） anomalies mainly located in a narrow band region south of the KE jet, in basic agreement with altimetric observations. These negative SSH anomalies reduce the merid- ional SSH gradient within the KE, thus weakening the strength of the jet. The KE jet then becomes more convoluted, with a high-frequency and large-amplitude variability corresponding to a high eddy kinetic energy level; this gradually strengthens the KE jet through an inverse energy cascade. Eventually, the KE reaches a high-energy state characterized by two well defined and fairly stable anticyclonic meanders. Moreover, sensitivity experiments indicate that the spatial structures of the OPRs are not sensitive to the model parameters and to the optimization times used in the analysis.

Reachable set estimation for discrete-time Markovian jump neural networks with unified uncertain transition probability

This paper focuses on the reachable set estimation for Markovian jump neural networks with time delay.By allowing uncertainty in the transition probabilities,a framework unifies and enhances the generality and realism of these systems.To fully exploit the unified uncertain transition probabilities,an equivalent transformation technique is introduced as an alternative to traditional estimation methods,effectively utilizing the information of transition probabilities.Furthermore,a vector Wirtinger-based summation inequality is proposed,which captures more system information compared to existing ones.Building upon these components,a novel condition that guarantees a reachable set estimation is presented for Markovian jump neural networks with unified uncertain transition probabilities.A numerical example is illustrated to demonstrate the superiority of the approaches.

Absolutely Direct Frequency Measurement of Two-Photon Transition Using Multi-Peak Fitting Approach

The optical frequency comb has been widely used in precision measurement. In this study, a multi-peak fitting approach is first proposed to fit the two-photon transition spectrum which overlaps with the neighboring transition in Rb-87. The multi-peak fitting approach is used to eliminate the frequency shift affected by the neighboring transition. With locking the carrier envelope offset frequency at 1/4 repetition frequency, the transition frequency is measured to be 770569132739.9 +/- 5.8 kHz, which agrees well with the previous result recommended by Comite International des Poids et Mesures.

New finite strain elastoplastic equations for accurately and explicitly simulating pseudoelastic-to-plastic transition effects of shape memory alloys

A new finite strain elatoplastic J2-flow model with coupling effects of both isotropic and anisotropic hardening is proposed with the co-rotational logarithmic rate.In terms of certain single-variable shape functions representing uniaxial loading and unloading curves,explicit multi-axial expressions for the three hardening quantities incorporated in the new model proposed are derived in unified forms for the purpose of automatically and accurately simulating complex pseudoelastic-to-plastic transition effects of shape memory alloys(SMAs)under multiple loading-unloading cycles.Numerical examples show that with only a single parameter of direct physical meaning for each cycle,accurate and explicit simulations may be achieved for extensive data from multiple cycle tests.

Nonlinear Optical Properties of Tri-nuclear Transition Metal Clusters M-(μ-S)s-M'(M=Mo,W;M'=Cu,Ag,Au)

The static polarizabilities and the second-order hyperpolarizabilities of a series of tri-nuclear metal cluster models MS4(MPPh3)2(MPPh3) (M=Mo,W; M=Cu, Ag, Au) have been calculated within the first-principle theoretical framework. The model clusters have two fragments of rhombic units and it is the charge transfer from one of these moieties to the other that is responsible for nonlinear optical property. This kind of electronic delocalization, differentiated from that of planar p-system, is very interesting and is worthy for further investigation.

转型金融:内涵、框架与未来展望

随着应对气候变化和经济低碳转型成为全球共识,各国纷纷提出碳排放控制目标以及净零时间表。传统的绿色金融无法满足碳密集型企业的转型需求,导致各国距离实现净零目标存在巨大的资金缺口,转型金融应运而生,并逐渐受到人们的广泛关注。从转型金融的概念出发,阐述转型金融在优化资源配置和管理转型风险方面的功能作用,并结合国际市场实践明确转型金融的发展前景。通过阐释转型金融发展的逻辑机理,对比分析国际上主流的转型融资方法,形成转型金融发展框架的五大核心要素。为此,今后应加强顶层政策体系的协同与约束力度、统一和完善转型金融的界定标准,并积极开展转型金融相关的理论创新。

大食物观下我国食物供求均衡的挑战与对策

过去几十年,我国食物供求关系发生了重大改变,粮食安全观念也逐步从传统的注重口粮安全过渡到注重数量、营养和可持续发展等多目标的大食物安全观。在大食物观下,未来我国食物供求均衡面临诸多挑战,包括:食物结构性短缺、食物自给率下降;食物供求空间错位,食物消费在不同人群之间差异明显;生态和水土资源制约不断加强,可持续生产能力亟需提高;膳食结构不合理,营养不良、营养过剩以及微量营养素缺乏问题并存;现有政策体系不适应大食物观的需要等。为应对以上挑战,需要全方位利用国土资源、多渠道开发食物来源,改革政府补贴支持政策,引导多元食物产业发展。同时要加强食育教育和宣传,推动建立健康导向型的多元膳食模式;政府要建立跨部门的协调机制,加强多元化食物供给统计与评估。

基于添加粘度抵消项的MRT-LBM对高雷诺数流态的研究

该文探究了添加粘度抵消方法(viscosity counteracting,VC)的多松弛格子玻尔兹曼方法(multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann method,MRT-LBM),即MRT-VC方法可以模拟的最大雷诺数.首先,模拟了经典二维顶盖驱动方腔流来验证模型的准确性,重点分析了雷诺数为5430和7000的流场,并分析了方腔流流场、涡心坐标、轴向速度和速度空间图谱.其次,随着模拟雷诺数的增大,流场内旋涡的数目逐渐增加,且流动依次呈现出稳定流、周期流、不完全混沌流、混沌流等状态.从稳定流到周期流的临界跃迁雷诺数在10000-12500之间,周期流到不完全混沌态流的临界跃迁雷诺数在45000-50000之间,不完全混沌态流到混沌流的临界跃迁雷诺数在95000-100000之间.

高速公路路-桥过渡段桥头搭板受力研究

布设桥头搭板可有效解决路-桥过渡段差异沉降引起的桥头跳车问题。文章采用梁和地基支承刚度统一计算的有限元法确定搭板的设计参数,基于数值模拟方法研究了搭板在不同布设方案中的受力情况,确定了桥头搭板最易破坏的位置,明确了搭板的最优布设方案。结果表明:随着搭板厚度和长度的增加,搭板所受最大弯矩值增大,搭板末端越易产生集中应力,导致二次跳车问题,即搭板厚度和长度存在最优尺寸,搭板长度为10 m时,最佳厚度为0.35~0.45 m,而当搭板厚度为0.35 m时,其最佳长度为8 m;搭板与桥台铰接且深埋搭板有利于搭板的长期稳定;采用搭板可以有效避免桥头跳车问题,与常规搭板布设方案相比,深埋搭板布设方案所受的竖向压力、弯矩和挠度均有显著降低;搭板上部回填材料为水泥稳定级配碎石时,可以有效地改善搭板的承载性能。

A Note on Transition Kernels for the Most UnfavourableMixed Strategies of the Market

We consider a deterministic model of market evolution with trading constraints andapply a game-theoretic approach to the superhedging problem.We obtain sufficientconditions for the game equilibrium and prove under these conditions the existenceof a Borel-measurable transition kernel describing dependence on price prehistory ofthe most unfavourable mixed strategy of the market.

Exploring multiple phases and first-order phase transitions in Kármán Vortex Street

Kármán Vortex Street, a fascinating phenomenon of fluid dynamics, has intrigued the scientific community for a long time. Many researchers have dedicated their efforts to unraveling the essence of this intriguing flow pattern. Here, we apply the lattice Boltzmann method with curved boundary conditions to simulate flows around a circular cylinder and study the emergence of Kármán Vortex Street using the eigen microstate approach, which can identify phase transition and its order-parameter. At low Reynolds number, there is only one dominant eigen microstate W_(1) of laminar flow. At Re_(c)^(1)= 53.6, there is a phase transition with the emergence of an eigen microstate pair W^(2,3) of pressure and velocity fields. Further at Re_(c)^(2)= 56, there is another phase transition with the emergence of two eigen microstate pairs W^(4,5) and W^(6,7). Using the renormalization group theory of eigen microstate,both phase transitions are determined to be first-order. The two-dimensional energy spectrum of eigen microstate for W^(1), W^(2,3) after Re_(c)^(1), W^(4-7) after Re_(c)^(2) exhibit-5/3 power-law behavior of Kolnogorov's K41 theory. These results reveal the complexity and provide an analysis of the Kármán Vortex Street from the perspective of phase transitions.

基于碳排惩罚的双城系统公交线网协同优化

为进一步促进跨城公交建设,推动区域一体化发展,提出一种基于碳排惩罚的双城系统公交线网协同优化模型.首先,针对都市圈中的双城系统提出基于碳排放的公共交通协同发展合作机制,并引入“碳排惩罚”作为小城市运营跨城公交至大城市所需向大城市支付的成本.其次,设计两种跨城公交布局方案,采用简约连续方法,测算跨城公交运营方案下的乘客用户成本、公交运营成本和碳排总量.然后,以双城公交系统内用户成本与运营成本之和,即系统总成本最低为目标,构建弹性需求下公交线网组织设计的双层规划模型,探究跨城公交与两个城市市内公交的协同优化问题,因模型决策变量少,故直接采用遗传算法求解.最后,以西安—咸阳双城系统为例进行实证分析,以期为公交线网协同布局提供决策依据.研究结果表明:建设跨城公交有助于推动小城市的市内公交服务水平提升,降低小城市的交通碳排放;两种跨城公交布局方案的差异主要体现在小城市的公交服务水平和运营成本上;建设跨城公交能否降低系统总碳排放主要取决于双城系统的出行需求水平、城市间距离和跨城出行比例.

The Microscopic Approach of sdgIBM-1 and Its Application to Nucleus^(154) Gd

Based on the Dyson expansion theory, a microscopic approach of sdgIBM\|1 is presented and applied to nucleus 154 Gd in this paper. The energy spectra and E 2 transition have been calculated. Good agreement is obtained in comparison with experimental results.

Space Resources Planning and Design of Rail Transit Station in Chongqing

According to the study on 39 sites of rail transit Line 3 in Chongqing, the sites are classifi ed into three types: residential type, business center type, traffi c hub type in this paper. The study shows that the sites have many problems such as discordance of land use, severity of spatial segregation, low rate of site utilization. To solve these problems, development approaches of site space resources within 1,000 m around the site area are further explored. The approaches include four aspects: characteristics of land use, functional composite, walking guide and shuttle transportation. In addition, appropriate planning and design methods are proposed.

多源流理论视域下高等教育高质量发展政策变迁与路径选择

“建设高质量教育体系”是我国“十四五”时期的政策导向和重点要求。以多源流理论分析我国高等教育发展政策转型过程,是对政策决策的模糊性作出模型化努力,也是对政策变迁动力机制的一种解释。基于多源流分析框架发现:高等教育与经济社会发展需求的矛盾,通过教育统计数据、系列焦点事件、社会各界反思反馈,形成问题源流;党和政府的顶层设计、相关共同体的政策构想、师生家长群的体验诉求,构成政策源流;公众情绪、意识形态转化为政治源流。问题源流、政策源流、政治源流交互耦合,合力推动了我国高等教育高质量发展的政策转型。新发展阶段,我国高等教育的“精准研策”应更注重系统性、整体性、协同性,在循序渐进中推动政策迭代趋优。

转移概率部分未知下Markov跳变系统的滑模控制

针对系统中含有两个相互独立的Markov链,且转移概率不完全已知的时滞不确定离散Markov跳变系统的滑模控制(SMC)问题,通过考虑参数不确定性的匹配条件,设计离散积分型滑模面.利用时滞分割技术构造含加权参数的Lyapunov-Krasovskii函数,得到系统随机稳定的充分条件,根据指数趋近律的到达条件设计滑模控制律,使得系统的状态轨迹能够到达所设计的滑模面.数值仿真结果表明,该方法具有一定的有效性.

复杂动态系统模型:幼小衔接期儿童学习与发展问题研究的新路径

当前幼小衔接领域的研究和实践有明显不足:研究层面缺少复杂性和动态性的深层次探索,实践层面常将幼小衔接问题简化为幼儿园和小学间的差异问题。针对这些不足,通过融合生态系统理论、文化历史理论、以及发展动态系统理论,建立了“复杂动态系统模型”作为一条研究幼小衔接期儿童学习与发展问题复杂性和动态性的新路径,这条路径共分四步走,包括:以复杂动态系统观为认识论基础、确定某一视角或层面的具体研究问题、基于复杂动态系统模型明确思路、以及模型指导下收集和分析数据并回答研究问题。

长期护理保险“整体化”路径设计研究——基于29个试点城市基金可持续性测算

2016年以来,中国先后两次开展长期护理保险制度试点,探索制度框架设计和政策体系建设,试点工作取得卓越成效。随着试点政策的推进和更迭,长期护理保险“碎片化”特征显现,阻碍资源高效配置和制度功能建设,甚至囿于“再碎片化”陷阱,亟待设计“整体化”路径。本文从长期护理保险基金可持续性角度出发,运用齐次性Markov过程和2015—2018年CHARLS数据,计算中国老年人健康状态转移概率矩阵,并通过构建长期护理保险基金精算模型,预测29个试点城市2021—2050年基金可持续性状况;同时采用中国第七次人口普查数据和队列要素模型,预测中国未来城乡人口,并根据国际长期护理保险发展趋势,从“碎片化”政策中提炼“整体化”路径。研究结果显示,第二批试点城市总体可持续性优于第一批试点城市,试点方案与当地发展的适配性进一步提升。针对未来制度可持续性,我们建议中国长期护理保险“整体化”路径如下:全民参保,将中、重度失能人员纳入保障范围,保障水平维持在70%左右,0.7%—1%的城镇职工缴费率,0.6%的城乡居民缴费率,财政为城乡居民补充其可支配收入的0.3%—0.6%。