Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,re...Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,resulting in long waiting times,high carbon emissions,and other undesirable situations.It is vital to estimate incident response times quickly and accurately after traffic incidents occur for the success of incident-related planning and response activities.This study presents a model for forecasting the traffic incident duration of traffic events with high precision.The proposed model goes through a 4-stage process using various features to predict the duration of four different traffic events and presents a feature reduction approach to enable real-time data collection and prediction.In the first stage,the dataset consisting of 24,431 data points and 75 variables is prepared by data collection,merging,missing data processing and data cleaning.In the second stage,models such as Decision Trees(DT),K-Nearest Neighbour(KNN),Random Forest(RF)and Support Vector Machines(SVM)are used and hyperparameter optimisation is performed with GridSearchCV.In the third stage,feature selection and reduction are performed and real-time data are used.In the last stage,model performance with 14 variables is evaluated with metrics such as accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,MCC,confusion matrix and SHAP.The RF model outperforms other models with an accuracy of 98.5%.The study’s prediction results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic prediction model can achieve a high level of success.展开更多
The use of ocean bottom seismometers provides an effective means of studying the process and the dynamic of cold seeps by continuously recording micro-events produced by sub-seafloor fluid migration.We deployed a four...The use of ocean bottom seismometers provides an effective means of studying the process and the dynamic of cold seeps by continuously recording micro-events produced by sub-seafloor fluid migration.We deployed a four-component Ocean Bottom Seismometer(OBS)at an active site of the Haima cold seep from 6 November to 19 November in 2021.Here,we present the results of this short-term OBS monitoring.We first examine the OBS record manually to distinguish(by their distinctive seismographic signatures)four types of events:shipping noises,vibrations from our remotely operated vehicle(ROV)operations,local earthquakes,and short duration events(SDEs).Only the SDEs are further discussed in this work.Such SDEs are similar to those observed in other sea areas and are interpreted to be correlated with sub-seafloor fluid migration.In the OBS data collected during the 14-day monitoring period.We identify five SDEs.Compared to the SDE occurrence rate observed in other cold seep regions,five events is rather low,from which it could be inferred that fluid migration,and subsequent gas seepage,is not very active at the Haima site.This conclusion agrees with multi-beam and chemical observations at that site.Our observations thus provide further constraint on the seepage activity in this location.This is the first time that cold seep-related SDEs have been identified in the South China Sea,expanding the list of sea areas where SDEs are now linked to cold seep fluid migration.展开更多
By using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China, relationships between the position variation of the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the diabatic heating during ...By using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China, relationships between the position variation of the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the diabatic heating during persistent and intense rains in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin are studied. The results show that the position variation of WPSH is closely associated with the diabatic heating. There are strong apparent heating sources and moisture sinks in both the basin (to the north of WPSH) and the north of Bay of Bengal (to the west of WPSH) during persistent and intense rain events. In the basin, Q 1z begins to increase 3 days ahead of intense rainfall, maximizes 2 days later and then reduces gradually, but it changes little after precipitation ends, thus preventing the WPSH from moving northward. In the north of Bay of Bengal, 2 days ahead of strong rainfall over the basin, Q 1z starts to increase and peaks 1 day after the rain occurs, leading to the westward extension of WPSH. Afterwards, Q 1z begins declining and the WPSH makes its eastward retreat accordingly. Based on the complete vertical vorticity equation, in mid-troposphere, the vertical variation of heating in the basin is favorable to the increase of cyclonic vorticity north of WPSH, which counteracts the northward movement of WPSH and favors the persistence of rainbands over the basin. The vertical variation of heating in the north of Bay of Bengal is in favor of the increase of anti-cyclonic vorticity to the west of WPSH, which induces the westward extension of WPSH.展开更多
The authors demonstrate that the El Ni o events in the pre-and post-1976 periods show two ampli-tude-duration relations. One is that the stronger El Ni o events have longer durations, which is robust for the moderate ...The authors demonstrate that the El Ni o events in the pre-and post-1976 periods show two ampli-tude-duration relations. One is that the stronger El Ni o events have longer durations, which is robust for the moderate El Ni o events; the other is that the stronger El Ni o events have shorter durations but for strong El Nio events. By estimating the sign and amplitude of the nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) anomalies, the authors illustrate that the NDH anomalies are negligible for moderate El Nio events but large for strong El Nio events. In particular, the large NDH anomalies for strong El Nio events are positive during the growth and mature phases, which favor warmer El Nio events. During the decay phase, however, the negative NDH anomalies start to arise and become increasingly significant with the evolution of the El Nio events, in which the negative NDH anomalies dampen the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and cause the El Nio events to reach the SST normal state earlier. This pattern suggests that the nonlinearity tends to increase the intensities of strong El Nio events and shorten their duration, which, together with the previous results showing a positive correlation between the strength of El Nio events and the significance of the effect of nonlinear advection on the events (especially the suppression of nonlinearity on the SSTA during the decay phase), shows that the strong El Nio events tend to have the amplitude-duration relation of the stronger El Nio events with shorter durations. This result also lends support to the assertion that moderate El Nio events possess the amplitude-duration relation of stronger El Nio events with longer durations.展开更多
Observations and models indicate that human activities exert a considerable impact on the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events,which are associated with global warming.However,changes in the duration ...Observations and models indicate that human activities exert a considerable impact on the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events,which are associated with global warming.However,changes in the duration of extreme temperature events and their association with human influence have not been considered in most studies.Thus,the possible relationship between the observed changes in the warm and cold spell duration(WSDI and CSDI)in hotspot regions during 1960-2014 and human influence was investigated based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis version 1 and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)data.Constraint projection based on these attribution results was also performed.The optimal fingerprinting technique was used to compare observed changes in WSDI and CSDI to simulated changes averaged across eight CMIP6 models.Results show that anthropogenic(ANT)forcing contributed to the observed increase in WSDI in the three hotspot regions(West Asia,South Asia and Southeast Asia),with the majority of the changes being attributed to greenhouse gas forcing.However,a generally weak ANT signal can be observed in the decreasing trend of CSDI and can be detected in South and Southeast Asia.The influence of aerosol forcing remains undetected in either WSDI or CSDI,which differs from the results for frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures.The attribution results revealed that the constrained projection of WSDI is lower than the raw projection for 2015-2100 in West Asia and Southeast Asia.However,no differences in future CSDI changes are found in Southeast Asia between the constrained and raw projections.展开更多
Based on the daily maximum air temperature(T_(max))data from the China Meteorological Data Network and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis data,the intra-seasonal circulation and evolution of an extreme high temperature event(EHT...Based on the daily maximum air temperature(T_(max))data from the China Meteorological Data Network and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis data,the intra-seasonal circulation and evolution of an extreme high temperature event(EHTE)in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River(MYR)from August 9-21,2011 were explored,as well as the influence of diabatic heating on the position variation of the Western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Results show that the daily T_(max) in the MYR exhibits a vigorous intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)of 10-25 days in the extended summer of 1980-2018.The main factors affecting the EHTE in the summer of 2011 are the low-frequency wave train propagating southeastward in the mid-latitude of the upper troposphere and the low-frequency anticyclone moving northwestward in the lowlatitude of the mid-lower troposphere.The diagnosis of 925hPa thermodynamic equation indicates that the ISO features of the T_(max) in the core region is determined by the intra-seasonal variation of the adiabatic variation.In addition,the variations of the WPSH correspond well to the distribution of apparent heat source.In the early stage of the high temperature process,the apparent heat source in the north of the Bay of Bengal is a certain indicator for the westward extension of the WPSH.展开更多
This study examined regional prolonged low temperature （PLT） events in China from the observational station data for the period 1960–2008 using the new criteria. The new definition of a site PLT event is that the d...This study examined regional prolonged low temperature （PLT） events in China from the observational station data for the period 1960–2008 using the new criteria. The new definition of a site PLT event is that the daily minimum temperature does not exceed the 10th percentile threshold of the local daily minimum temperature climatology for at least 5 days at a station. The regional PLT event is defined as at least five adjacent stations exhibiting site PLT simultaneously for 5 d. Under the new definition, 552 regional PLT events were identified, and three indices： duration, extent, and intensity, as well as a comprehensive index （CI） were used to quantify the event severity. In addition, geographical patterns and temporal variations of regional PLT events were investigated using three event categories： strong, moderate, and weak. Spatially, strong events were mainly located in the north of Xinjiang and along the Yangtze River to the south of the Yangtze River; moderate events occurred in Xinjiang and south of the Yangtze River; and weak events occurred south of the Yellow River. The variation for the annual frequency of regional PLT events in China in the last 49 years showed a significant decreasing trend with a rate of-1.99 times per decade, and the significant transition decade was the 1980s.展开更多
The basic concept of Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) is short packet transmission and transient connection. It can quickly establish a connection, send data, and quickly disconnect, so that neighbor discovery is frequent a...The basic concept of Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) is short packet transmission and transient connection. It can quickly establish a connection, send data, and quickly disconnect, so that neighbor discovery is frequent and becomes an important issue. In the neighbor discovery which includes advertising and scanning, the BLE specification defines several important parameters. The parameters on the advertiser side include advertising interval, advertising duration, etc. On the scanner side, there are scan interval, scan window, etc. How to configure these parameters for quick neighbor discovery has been troublesome for BLE implementers. Prior analyses on BLE discovery process also showed some disagreements or made some incorrect assumptions. In this paper, we use rigorous probability-theory based derivations to obtain different kinds of successful discovery probabilities. We clarify disagreements in prior works and also provide insights on how to configure parameters for maximizing discovery probability. In particular, we prove that the discovery probabilities on each of the three channels are correlated. We also find that, when the advertising duration is set close to some multiples of the scan interval, an ill-fated synchronization problem will occur. To have a high discovery probability, both scan window and scan interval should be set at a large value, though it might not be good for energy saving.展开更多
文摘Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,resulting in long waiting times,high carbon emissions,and other undesirable situations.It is vital to estimate incident response times quickly and accurately after traffic incidents occur for the success of incident-related planning and response activities.This study presents a model for forecasting the traffic incident duration of traffic events with high precision.The proposed model goes through a 4-stage process using various features to predict the duration of four different traffic events and presents a feature reduction approach to enable real-time data collection and prediction.In the first stage,the dataset consisting of 24,431 data points and 75 variables is prepared by data collection,merging,missing data processing and data cleaning.In the second stage,models such as Decision Trees(DT),K-Nearest Neighbour(KNN),Random Forest(RF)and Support Vector Machines(SVM)are used and hyperparameter optimisation is performed with GridSearchCV.In the third stage,feature selection and reduction are performed and real-time data are used.In the last stage,model performance with 14 variables is evaluated with metrics such as accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,MCC,confusion matrix and SHAP.The RF model outperforms other models with an accuracy of 98.5%.The study’s prediction results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic prediction model can achieve a high level of success.
基金supported by the Key Research and Development Project of Guangdong Province(Grant:2020B1111510001)supported by the Project of Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City(Grant No:SCKJ-JYRC-2022-14)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No:92262304).
文摘The use of ocean bottom seismometers provides an effective means of studying the process and the dynamic of cold seeps by continuously recording micro-events produced by sub-seafloor fluid migration.We deployed a four-component Ocean Bottom Seismometer(OBS)at an active site of the Haima cold seep from 6 November to 19 November in 2021.Here,we present the results of this short-term OBS monitoring.We first examine the OBS record manually to distinguish(by their distinctive seismographic signatures)four types of events:shipping noises,vibrations from our remotely operated vehicle(ROV)operations,local earthquakes,and short duration events(SDEs).Only the SDEs are further discussed in this work.Such SDEs are similar to those observed in other sea areas and are interpreted to be correlated with sub-seafloor fluid migration.In the OBS data collected during the 14-day monitoring period.We identify five SDEs.Compared to the SDE occurrence rate observed in other cold seep regions,five events is rather low,from which it could be inferred that fluid migration,and subsequent gas seepage,is not very active at the Haima site.This conclusion agrees with multi-beam and chemical observations at that site.Our observations thus provide further constraint on the seepage activity in this location.This is the first time that cold seep-related SDEs have been identified in the South China Sea,expanding the list of sea areas where SDEs are now linked to cold seep fluid migration.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41375090 and 41530425]the Basic Research Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences[grant number 2015Z001]
基金Chinese National Key Technology R&D Program (2009BAC51B01)National Basic Research Program "973" of China (2012CB417403)+1 种基金Meteorological Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (KM201207)‘333’Project of Jiangsu Province and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)
文摘By using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China, relationships between the position variation of the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the diabatic heating during persistent and intense rains in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin are studied. The results show that the position variation of WPSH is closely associated with the diabatic heating. There are strong apparent heating sources and moisture sinks in both the basin (to the north of WPSH) and the north of Bay of Bengal (to the west of WPSH) during persistent and intense rain events. In the basin, Q 1z begins to increase 3 days ahead of intense rainfall, maximizes 2 days later and then reduces gradually, but it changes little after precipitation ends, thus preventing the WPSH from moving northward. In the north of Bay of Bengal, 2 days ahead of strong rainfall over the basin, Q 1z starts to increase and peaks 1 day after the rain occurs, leading to the westward extension of WPSH. Afterwards, Q 1z begins declining and the WPSH makes its eastward retreat accordingly. Based on the complete vertical vorticity equation, in mid-troposphere, the vertical variation of heating in the basin is favorable to the increase of cyclonic vorticity north of WPSH, which counteracts the northward movement of WPSH and favors the persistence of rainbands over the basin. The vertical variation of heating in the north of Bay of Bengal is in favor of the increase of anti-cyclonic vorticity to the west of WPSH, which induces the westward extension of WPSH.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (Nos.2010CB950402 and 2012CB955202)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-QN203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41176013)
文摘The authors demonstrate that the El Ni o events in the pre-and post-1976 periods show two ampli-tude-duration relations. One is that the stronger El Ni o events have longer durations, which is robust for the moderate El Ni o events; the other is that the stronger El Ni o events have shorter durations but for strong El Nio events. By estimating the sign and amplitude of the nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) anomalies, the authors illustrate that the NDH anomalies are negligible for moderate El Nio events but large for strong El Nio events. In particular, the large NDH anomalies for strong El Nio events are positive during the growth and mature phases, which favor warmer El Nio events. During the decay phase, however, the negative NDH anomalies start to arise and become increasingly significant with the evolution of the El Nio events, in which the negative NDH anomalies dampen the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and cause the El Nio events to reach the SST normal state earlier. This pattern suggests that the nonlinearity tends to increase the intensities of strong El Nio events and shorten their duration, which, together with the previous results showing a positive correlation between the strength of El Nio events and the significance of the effect of nonlinear advection on the events (especially the suppression of nonlinearity on the SSTA during the decay phase), shows that the strong El Nio events tend to have the amplitude-duration relation of the stronger El Nio events with shorter durations. This result also lends support to the assertion that moderate El Nio events possess the amplitude-duration relation of stronger El Nio events with longer durations.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFF0801603)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42130609).
文摘Observations and models indicate that human activities exert a considerable impact on the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events,which are associated with global warming.However,changes in the duration of extreme temperature events and their association with human influence have not been considered in most studies.Thus,the possible relationship between the observed changes in the warm and cold spell duration(WSDI and CSDI)in hotspot regions during 1960-2014 and human influence was investigated based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis version 1 and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)data.Constraint projection based on these attribution results was also performed.The optimal fingerprinting technique was used to compare observed changes in WSDI and CSDI to simulated changes averaged across eight CMIP6 models.Results show that anthropogenic(ANT)forcing contributed to the observed increase in WSDI in the three hotspot regions(West Asia,South Asia and Southeast Asia),with the majority of the changes being attributed to greenhouse gas forcing.However,a generally weak ANT signal can be observed in the decreasing trend of CSDI and can be detected in South and Southeast Asia.The influence of aerosol forcing remains undetected in either WSDI or CSDI,which differs from the results for frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures.The attribution results revealed that the constrained projection of WSDI is lower than the raw projection for 2015-2100 in West Asia and Southeast Asia.However,no differences in future CSDI changes are found in Southeast Asia between the constrained and raw projections.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1505804)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42075032)。
文摘Based on the daily maximum air temperature(T_(max))data from the China Meteorological Data Network and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis data,the intra-seasonal circulation and evolution of an extreme high temperature event(EHTE)in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River(MYR)from August 9-21,2011 were explored,as well as the influence of diabatic heating on the position variation of the Western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Results show that the daily T_(max) in the MYR exhibits a vigorous intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)of 10-25 days in the extended summer of 1980-2018.The main factors affecting the EHTE in the summer of 2011 are the low-frequency wave train propagating southeastward in the mid-latitude of the upper troposphere and the low-frequency anticyclone moving northwestward in the lowlatitude of the mid-lower troposphere.The diagnosis of 925hPa thermodynamic equation indicates that the ISO features of the T_(max) in the core region is determined by the intra-seasonal variation of the adiabatic variation.In addition,the variations of the WPSH correspond well to the distribution of apparent heat source.In the early stage of the high temperature process,the apparent heat source in the north of the Bay of Bengal is a certain indicator for the westward extension of the WPSH.
基金Acknowledgement This work is supported by grants from National Natural Science foundation of China （81570323） and Beijing Lab for Cardiovascular Precision Medicine, Beijing, China （PXM2017_014226_000037）.
基金supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (GrantNo. 40975039)the Key Technologies R&D Program(Grant No. 2009BAC51B00)
文摘This study examined regional prolonged low temperature （PLT） events in China from the observational station data for the period 1960–2008 using the new criteria. The new definition of a site PLT event is that the daily minimum temperature does not exceed the 10th percentile threshold of the local daily minimum temperature climatology for at least 5 days at a station. The regional PLT event is defined as at least five adjacent stations exhibiting site PLT simultaneously for 5 d. Under the new definition, 552 regional PLT events were identified, and three indices： duration, extent, and intensity, as well as a comprehensive index （CI） were used to quantify the event severity. In addition, geographical patterns and temporal variations of regional PLT events were investigated using three event categories： strong, moderate, and weak. Spatially, strong events were mainly located in the north of Xinjiang and along the Yangtze River to the south of the Yangtze River; moderate events occurred in Xinjiang and south of the Yangtze River; and weak events occurred south of the Yellow River. The variation for the annual frequency of regional PLT events in China in the last 49 years showed a significant decreasing trend with a rate of-1.99 times per decade, and the significant transition decade was the 1980s.
文摘The basic concept of Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) is short packet transmission and transient connection. It can quickly establish a connection, send data, and quickly disconnect, so that neighbor discovery is frequent and becomes an important issue. In the neighbor discovery which includes advertising and scanning, the BLE specification defines several important parameters. The parameters on the advertiser side include advertising interval, advertising duration, etc. On the scanner side, there are scan interval, scan window, etc. How to configure these parameters for quick neighbor discovery has been troublesome for BLE implementers. Prior analyses on BLE discovery process also showed some disagreements or made some incorrect assumptions. In this paper, we use rigorous probability-theory based derivations to obtain different kinds of successful discovery probabilities. We clarify disagreements in prior works and also provide insights on how to configure parameters for maximizing discovery probability. In particular, we prove that the discovery probabilities on each of the three channels are correlated. We also find that, when the advertising duration is set close to some multiples of the scan interval, an ill-fated synchronization problem will occur. To have a high discovery probability, both scan window and scan interval should be set at a large value, though it might not be good for energy saving.
