Characteristics of Temperature Change in China over the Last 2000 years and Spatial Patterns of Dryness/Wetness during Cold and Warm Periods

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3℃ and 0.7℃, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56°± 0.42℃（100 yr）^（-1）; however, temperatures recorded in the 20 th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD1201–70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern： dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°–30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20 th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China.

Monitoring and Assessment of Water Quality of Centralized Drinking Water Sources in Kaixian County during the " Twelfth Five-year Plan " Period

Based on the monitoring data of water quality of more than 40 centralized drinking water sources in 40 towns （townships or streets） of Kaixian County in the first and second half of each year during the ＂Twelfth Five-year Plan＂ period, the changing rules of the water quality were studied to provide scientific references for the improvement of drinking water safety of urban and rural residents and drinking water quality. The re- sults show that the water quality of centralized drinking water sources in Kaixian County improved year by year during the ＂Twelfth Five-year Plan＂ period, and most monitoring sites with water quality exceeding the standard are distributed in reservoirs. Total phosphorus, total nitrogen, chemical oxygen demand, and permanganate index exceeded the standard obviously. Main pollution sources are domestic pollution and non-point source pol- lution caused by excessive discharge of nitrogen, phosphorus and organic pollutants. To improve drinking water quality, it is suggested that some towns can get drinking water from other reservoirs, surface water or underground water with better quality instead of previous reservoirs with water quality exceeding the standard, and the control of non-point source pollution should be enhanced.

A Review of Development of Environmental Protection Information during the 12^(th) Five-Year Plan Period and Its Outlook

During the 12^(th)Five-Year Plan period,the environmental protection information work made remarkable achievements,and the construction of nationwide air quality monitoring network was completed; the trinitarian monitoring system was established,and environmental emergency command ability enhanced significantly. However,the issues of " information island" and " application silo" are still outstanding,and the application and promotion of new technologies make slow progress; the capacity of information system to support environmental protection business is insufficient,and there is no capacity for decision analysis. In the 13^(th)Five-Year Plan period,it is needed to strengthen the application and promotion of new technologies such as cloud computing,big data,Internet of Things,and spatial information,mainly construct and improve " Cloud Computing Based Environmental Protection( CCBEP) ", " big data platform of ecological environment",and then realize the core objective of improving environmental quality.

A New Approach to Estimating the T-Year Return-Period Wave Height

The paper introduces a new approach to estimating the T-year return-period wave height (TRPW), i.e. the wave height expected to occur in T-year, from two sets of observed extreme data and on the basis of the maximum entropy principle. The main points of the approach are as follows. 1) A maximum entropy probability density function (PDF) for the extreme wave height H is derived from a Euler equation subject to some necessary and rational constraints. 2) The parameters in the function are expressed in terms of the mth moment of H. 3) This PDF is convenient to theoretical and practical applications as it is simple and its four parameters are easy to be determined from observed extreme data. An example is given for estimating the TRPW in 50 and 100 years by the present approach and by some currently used methods using observed data at two hydrographic stations.The comparison of the estimated results shows that the present approach is quite similar to the Pearson-Ⅲ and Gumbel methods.

Small Town Construction in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period: A Case Study of Shangrao City

The 12 th Five-Year Plan period was unusual five years in the development of China. Under the dual pressure of complex international environment and arduous domestic reform task,China made outstanding achievements in economic development,which lays a solid foundation for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in the 13 th Five-Year Plan period. The key and difficult points of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects lie in solving issues concerning agriculture,farmers,and rural areas. The 18 th National Congress of the CPC stated that integrated urban and rural development is the fundamental approach for solving issues concerning agriculture,farmers,and rural areas. As a transitional form from rural areas to urban areas,small town play an important role in integrated urban and rural development. In the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,China should take a new road of characteristic urbanization,energetically develop key towns,central towns,and characteristic towns,use points to drive areas,and promote coordinated progress of urbanization construction and new countryside construction. Focusing on the objective of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and taking Shangrao City as an example,we analyzed construction of small town,in order to provide scientific theoretical reference for urbanization development,plan preparation,and policy formulation of Shangrao City.

1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担分析及未来10年发病预测

目的了解1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病、患病、死亡情况及疾病负担情况,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病情况,为评估和制定慢性阻塞性肺疾病相关预防治疗政策和措施提供数据支持。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global burden of disease study,GBD),研究分析1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的发病、患病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、早死寿命损失年(YLL)、伤残寿命损失年(YLD)等情况。采用贝叶斯-时期-队列分析(BAPC)方法,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病率。结果相对于1990年,2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病粗患病率增长35.44%,标化患病率减少27.16%,粗发病率增长38.31%,标化发病率减少28.52%,粗死亡率减少30.59%,标化死亡率减少70.08%。1990-2019年中国人群因慢性阻塞性肺疾病导致的YLL率由3281.48/10万降至862.37/10万,YLD率由330.33/10万降至240.40/10万,DALY率由3611.81/10万降至1102.77/10万。2019年男性慢性阻塞性肺疾病DALY率相比于1990年降低66.56%,女性DALY率相比于1990年降低71.87%。2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率预计呈下降趋势,2030年男性标化发病率预计比2020年降低31.97%,女性标化发病率预计比2020年降低27.69%。结论1990-2019年,慢性阻塞性肺疾病对中国人口造成的疾病负担总体呈下降趋势。但从患病情况和死亡情况来看,发病及死亡人数较多,中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。同时预测结果显示,未来10年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率在下降,但是仍处于较高水平,因此进行早筛查、早预防和早治疗,及广泛开展慢阻肺相关知识普及,对于做好COPD疾病管理具有重要意义。

An Analysis of China's Overall Price Trend During the 12th Five-year Plan Period and Suggestions

In this paper,the author first summarizes China’s price operation situation and characteristics since the 1990s,and thenanalyzes inflation shaping factors and types.Based on that,the author raises six inflation early-warning indexes andfully dissects influencing factors of the overall price trend and inflation risks during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Afterthat,the author explains some aspects of price fluctuation that warrants attention during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Finally,the author puts forward policies and suggestions for stabilizing the overall price during the transformation of theeconomic development mode based on our actual situation.

“十四五”时期义乌市跨境电商发展的驱动机制研究

义乌是中国小商品进入全球商贸流通体系的第一枢纽,也是引领全国跨境电商新模式、新业态发展的前沿阵地。加快发展跨境电商是新时期义乌打造全球大众贸易双循环中心,高质量、高水平建成世界小商品之都,实现经济社会数字化转型的关键路径。本文通过回顾“十三五”时期义乌市跨境电商的发展历程,分析“十四五”时期义乌市跨境电商的发展趋势,评估当前义乌市跨境电商面临的问题和挑战,从而明确“十四五”时期义乌市跨境电商的总体要求和发展目标,制定“十四五”时期义乌市跨境电商的发展策略,以期为政府部门制定相关政策提供理论支撑与对策参考。

大沽河极端气候指数特征及其对地下水的影响

掌握极端气候变化特征是地下水资源管理的重要环节。为了探究极端气候对地下水资源的影响,以大沽河水源地为例,基于40余年的气象数据,选取14个代表性的极端气候指标,并采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析等方法分析了研究区气候变化的趋势性、突变性和周期性;基于极端气候指数和水文频率分析筛选了研究区代表性的极端气候年份,运用水均衡分析方法估算了极端气候年份条件下地下水平衡;并通过相关性和周期性分析评估了极端气候指数对地下水水位埋深的影响。结果表明:(1)1979-2021年,研究区内表征高温与降水的极端气候指数呈上升趋势,表征低温的极端气候指数总体呈下降趋势;极端丰水年代表性年份为2007年和2020年,极端枯水年代表性年份为1981年和1986年。(2)极端气候指数在20世纪90年代与21世纪初期发生突变,之后高温趋势更加显著。(3)极端降水指数第一周期对应的平均周期为11~16 a,极端气温指数第一主周期对应的平均周期主要有3个变化范围分别为20~24 a、12~14 a、5~6 a。(4)极端降水指数抑制地下水水位埋深的增加,极端降水量(R95p)和普通日降水强度(SDII)是影响大沽河水源地地下水水位埋深的主要降水指数;水位埋深的第一主周期对应的周期分别为13~15 a,与极端降水指数周期特征基本一致,意味着水位埋深受极端降水指数的影响较显著。(5)在极端丰水年(2007年),地下水总补给量约为319.4mm,总排泄量约为204.8 mm,均衡差约为114.6 mm;在极端枯水年(1981年),地下水总补给量约为104.2 mm,总排泄量约为141.1 mm,均衡差约为-36.9 mm。

黄河百年径流系列连续枯水段识别和用水特征分析

连续枯水给黄河流域水资源安全造成了严重威胁。采用黄河干流兰州断面和花园口断面1920—2019水文年系列,通过距平法和标准化径流指数识别了百年系列连续枯水段,分析了枯水段的用水特征。结果显示:两断面均经历了1922—1932水文年和1990—2002水文年连续枯水段,均表现出连续枯水段和极端枯水年叠加的特征;1990—2002水文年连续枯水显著减少了入海水量;在1990—2002水文年连续枯水段初期,枯水对黄河流域及供水区用水量影响不明显,但在后期用水总量及农业用水量均大幅度减少;1990—2002水文年连续枯水段后期遭遇短期极端枯水对用水造成重大影响;龙羊峡水库在连续枯水段发挥了多年调节作用,支撑了流域供水安全。但是龙羊峡水库年际补水能力有限,未来在国家水网建设背景下,应通过建设古贤水库和跨流域调水工程提升应对连续枯水的流域水资源安全保障能力。

“十七年”时期河南电影放映员的职业困境与身份认同

新中国“十七年”时期是河南电影放映员队伍建立和成熟的时期,其发展并不是一蹴而就,而是随着种种问题的出现和解决一步步完善起来的。放映员在工作中既面临上级规定的任务,又面对地方实践的难题,在工作中他们产生过身份认同的迷茫。他们的身份认同是在国家意志与自身职业诉求的张力中共同塑造的,体现了基层文化工作者对国家意志的应对与调适。探究这一时期放映员群体在工作实践中的职业困境与身份认同,可以展现出“小人物”在国家意识形态延伸过程中的复杂历程。

论“十七年”时期电影明星生成机制与身体政治——以上官云珠入选“22大明星”为中心

“十七年”时期,“22大明星”在政治实践、明星表演、观众参与等多重机制的作用下诞生,这些机制复杂而多面,暗合着不同程度的悖论。上官云珠通过对自己银幕内外的身体规训,完成了对这些悖论的意识形态缝合,最终得以成为代表新中国文艺工作者形象的“22大明星”中的一员。以上官云珠入选“22大明星”为中心,可一窥“十七年”时期电影文化的特殊面貌。

中央和地方“十四五”应急管理政策规划文本量化研究——基于“X-Y-Z”三维政策工具分析框架

发展应急管理事业是人民生命、财产安全及身体健康的重要保障。“十四五”时期,党中央和各地方陆续颁布一系列应急管理政策规划,以期推进应急管理事业发展。采用内容分析法,对国务院以及北京、天津、河北、山西、内蒙古等28个省份颁布的29份应急管理政策规划文本进行分析,构建政策工具(X轴)-政策目标(Y轴)-政策主题特征(Z轴)三维分析框架;在此基础上,对政策文本中的具体政策条文进行编码加以量化分析,并运用ROSTCM6计量分析软件对政策文本主题词进行分析。研究发现,在中央和地方“十四五”应急管理政策规划文本中,环境型政策工具的使用最充足,而需求型政策工具使用不足;不同政策目标对应的政策条文数量差异较大;政策工具、政策目标和政策主题特征三维度之间存在较强联系。最后指出,坚定“预防为主”理念,协调政策工具箱合力等是推动应急管理事业发展的重要策略。

新型基础测绘体系在基础地形图更新中的应用

以广州市某区为例,探讨了以新型基础测绘体系探索为抓手,配合传统测量手段,打破传统测绘技术瓶颈,完成了“十三五”时期基础地形图更新测绘项目,项目成果还实现了不同比例尺成果转换,项目顺利通过对业主验收并获得一致好评,为其他地区大范围多时期基础地形图更新项目提供了一定的参考。

近60年黑龙江省极端降水事件分布特征

文中采用泰森多边形、反距离权重、Mann-Kendall检验和小波分析法分析黑龙江省1960—2021年33个气象站逐日降水数据,系统研究了6个极端降水指数的空间分布特征、时间尺度上的趋势变化、突变性和周期性。结果表明,极端降水指数空间分布变化显著,研究区北部和南部降水量较大、西部地区降水强度较大;在0.05的置信区间内,极端降水事件突变多发生在20世纪60年代和80年代左右,且主周期变化中心为41年前后;人为因素和自然因素极大地影响着极端降水指数的变化,极端降水事件对城市化进程、自然地理因素和大尺度气候因子有一定的指示作用。

炎陵县“十三五”期间地表水水质评价及变化趋势分析

炎陵县是洣水的发源地,对该县域内的地表水水质进行评价,并对其变化趋势进行分析,可为环境管理及河道治理提供有力的技术支撑。分析结果表明:炎陵县“十三五”期间,太和断面主要水质指标高锰酸盐指数、化学需氧量、生化需氧量、氨氮、总磷等均呈下降趋势,综合水质指数呈显著下降趋势,说明5年来太和断面水质呈显著好转趋势;晏公潭断面主要水质指标高锰酸盐指数、化学需氧量、氨氮、总磷等均呈下降趋势,综合水质指数呈不显著下降趋势,说明5年来晏公潭断面水质呈好转趋势,但不显著。

Maximum Entropy Estimation of n-Year Extreme Waveheights

A new method for estimating the n (50 or 100) -year return-period waveheight, namely, the extreme waveheight expected to occur in n years, is presented on the basis of the maximum entropy principle. The main points of the method are as follows: (1) based on the Hamiltonian principle, a maximum entropy probability density function for the extreme waveheight H, f(H)=αHγ e -βH4 is derived from a Lagrangian function subject to some necessary and rational constraints; (2) the parameters α, β, and γ in the function are expressed in terms of the mean , variance V= (H-)2 and bias B= (H-)3 ; and (3) with , V and B estimated from observed data, the n -year return-period wave height H n is computed in accordance with the formula 11-F(H n)=n , where F(H n) is defined as F(H n)=∫ H n 0f(H) d H. Examples of estimating the 50 and 100-year return period waveheights by the present method and by some currently used method from observed data acquired from two hydrographic stations are given. A comparison of the estimated results shows that the present method is superior to the others.

“十三五”我国番茄产业发展及其国际竞争力评价

我国是世界最大的番茄生产国。从番茄育种、种植生产、国际贸易等方面出发,对“十三五”时期我国番茄产业发展情况进行深入分析,并选取国际市场占有率、出口价格指数、贸易竞争力指数等评价指标,分别从出口竞争力、出口贸易质量、生产效率竞争优势等方面对我国番茄国际竞争力水平进行评价与分析。结果表明,“十三五”期间,我国番茄产业整体实现了长足发展,育种水平不断提高,生产规模持续扩大,出口贸易稳步增长。但与作为世界最大的番茄生产国的国际地位不相符的是,目前我国番茄国际竞争力水平还相对较弱,与墨西哥、西班牙等其他番茄主产国相比尚存在一定差距。最后,从加强良种选育创新研究、实施标准化高效种植模式、建立国内外市场监测预警体系等方面因地制宜地提出提升我国番茄国际竞争力的政策建议。