Relationship between thermal anomalies in Tibetan Plateau and summer dust storm frequency over Tarim Basin,China

The dust storm is the most important and frequent meteorological disaster over Tarim Basin, which causes huge damages on local social economics. How to predict the springtime and summertime dust storm oc- currence has become a hot issue for meteorologists. This paper employed the data of dust storm frequency and 10-m wind velocity at 35 stations over Tarim Basin and the reanalysis data from the National Center for Environ- mental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） during 1961-2007 to study the relationship between dust storm frequency （DSF） in summer over Tarim Basin and the thermal anomalies in Tibetan Plateau in May by using the statistical methods, such as Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）, correlation and binomial moving average. The results show when negative anomalies in Tibetan Plateau and positive anomalies in its southern region are present along 30~N （the second mode of surface temperature anomalies by EOF decomposition） in May, the time coefficient （PC2） plays an important role in summer DSF variation and has a close relation with the summer DSF at both inter-annual and decadal time scales. When negative anomalies in Tibetan Plateau and positive anomalies are present in its southern region （PC2 in positive phase）, there is an anomalous anticyclone in North China, which weakens the northwest wind and is not beneficial for cold air moving from high latitude to the Tarim Basin, and the circulation pattern is hard to result in dust storm weather. Furthermore, the sea level pressure （SLP） increased over Tarim Basin and the direction of SLP gradient reversed, which resulted in the 10-m wind velocity slowing down, so the DSF decreased. From above all, it can be conclude that the thermal anomalies in Tibetan Plateau in May has important effects on the summertime dust storm frequency over Tarim Basin and the PC2 can be used as a prediction factor for the summertime dust storm occurrence.

Possible influence of Arctic Oscillation on dust storm frequency in North China

This study has investigated the influence of Arctic Oscillation （AO） on dust storm frequency in North China in spring seasons during 1961-2007. There is a significant linkage between dust storm frequency and AO; a negative （positive） AO phase is related to an increased （decreased） dust storm frequency in North China. This relationship is closely related to changes in the cold air activity in Mongolia. The cold air activity exerts large impacts on the dust storm frequency; the frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia not only positively correlates with the dust storm frequency in North China, but also shows a long-term decreasing trend that is an important reason for the long-term decreasing of dust storm frequency in North China. The AO has large influence on the frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia; a negative （positive） AO phase is highly related to an increased （decreased） frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia, which results in an increased （decreased） dust storm frequency in North China.