Application of strength reduction method to dynamic anti-sliding stability analysis of high gravity dam with complex dam foundation

Considering that there are some limitations in analyzing the anti-sliding seismic stability of dam-foundation systems with the traditional pseudo-static method and response spectrum method, the dynamic strength reduction method was used to study the deep anti-sliding stability of a high gravity dam with a complex dam foundation in response to strong earthquake-induced ground action. Based on static anti-sliding stability analysis of the dam foundation undertaken by decreasing the shear strength parameters of the rock mass in equal proportion, the seismic time history analysis was carried out. The proposed instability criterion for the dynamic strength reduction method was that the peak values of dynamic displacements and plastic strain energy change suddenly with the increase of the strength reduction factor. The elasto-plastic behavior of the dam foundation was idealized using the Drucker-Prager yield criterion based on the associated flow rule assumption. The result of elasto-plastic time history analysis of an overflow dam monolith based on the dynamic strength reduction method was compared with that of the dynamic linear elastic analysis, and the reliability of elasto-plastic time history analysis was confirmed. The results also show that the safety factors of the dam-foundation system in the static and dynamic cases are 3.25 and 3.0, respectively, and that the F2 fault has a significant influence on the anti-sliding stability of the high gravity dam. It is also concluded that the proposed instability criterion for the dynamic strength reduction method is feasible.

Methodology for estimating probability of dynamical system's failure for concrete gravity dam

Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters(earthquake variability and material randomness).Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.

Deformation coordination analysis of CC-RCC combined dam structures under dynamic loads

A combined dam structure using different concrete materials offers many practical benefits.There are several real-world cases where largevolume heterogeneous concrete materials have been used together.From the engineering design standpoint,it is crucial to understand the deformation coordination characteristics and mechanical properties of large-volume heterogeneous concrete,which affect dam safety and stability.In this study,a large dam facility was selected for a case study,and various design schemes of the combined dam structure were developed by changing the configurations of material zoning and material types for a given dam shape.Elastoplastic analysis of the damfoundation-reservoir system for six schemes was carried out under dynamic conditions,in which the concrete damaged plasticity(CDP)model,the Lagrangian finite element formulation,and a surface-to-surface contact model were utilized.To evaluate the mechanical properties of zoning interfaces and coordination characteristics,the vertical distribution of the first principal stress at the longitudinal joint was used as the critical index of deformation coordination control,and the overall deformation and damage characteristics of the dam were also investigated.Through a comparative study of the design schemes,an optimal scheme of the combined dam structure was identified:large-volume roller-compacted concrete(RCC)is recommended for the dam body upstream of the longitudinal joint,and high-volume fly ash conventional concrete(CC)for the dam body downstream of the longitudinal joint.This study provides engineers with a reference basis for combined dam structure design.

On modeling and analyzing multi-agent systems using π-calculus

Dynamic architecture of multi-agent systems （MAS） is important for critical systems. As the existing formal specifications of MAS cannot describe its dynamic architecture, a formal approach using n-calculus is presented, which is suited for the describing and analyzing of concurrent MAS with dynamic topology, n-calculus describes the belief-desireintention （BDI） model that represents agent＇s mental states and provides many useful facilities to analyze MAS model such as deadlock, behavior equivalence, and model checking. To illustrate the favorable representation capability of n-calculus, an example of dynamic multi-agent systems in e-commerce is provided. Finally, by using an existing n-calculus supporting tool, MAS model and some key behaviors properties are analyzed and verified.

Agent-Based Modeling: An Application to Natural Resource Management

Computer programs have been categorized as a useful tool to evaluate the complexity of systems. In fact, agent-based modeling (ABM) is considered a new method to model complex systems characterized by the role of independent and interrelating agents. Simulations contribute in estimating and comprehending emerging behaviors that require the development of new regulations for local agents that would make improvements to the system. This paper offers an example of a methodology and a process utilized to develop a simulation model named Befergyonet, an ABM used to conduct computer simulations within a spatio-intertemporal environment. The methodology discussed in this paper is intended solely to stimulate the use of innovative computer programs to simulate complex systems as an approach to represent real world events and may be a methodological guide for readers interested in developing their own ABM.

寒冷条件下高拱坝施工过程仿真方法研究

众多高拱坝施工面临着恶劣寒冷气候的考验。然而,现有的高拱坝施工过程仿真方法较少直接考虑气温对施工的影响,且未考虑基于气温预测成果进行动态分块,以分析寒冷条件下利用正温时段进行浇筑的特点。针对以上问题,本文提出了基于Informer的寒冷条件下高拱坝施工过程仿真方法。首先,提出基于Informer气温预测模型,实现未来气温序列的预测,在此基础上实现可施工时段分析;其次,建立考虑动态分块的寒冷条件下高拱坝施工进度仿真模型,提出更加贴近实际施工情况的分块施工仿真策略,以更好地模拟和分析不同气温条件下的施工过程;最后,以西南地区的叶巴滩高拱坝工程为例进行研究,采用Informer模型对气温进行预测,平均误差为±1.49℃,每日的可施工时长平均误差为±1.16 h。通过对比三种不同的仿真策略,发现寒冷条件下采用动态分块策略可以充分利用可浇筑时段,施工效率更高,也表明在仿真中“考虑气温”比简单降效处理更加贴近实际情况。

Understanding the Dynamics Location of Very Large Populations Interacted with Service Points

This paper offers preliminary work on system dynamics and Data mining tools. It tries to understand the dynamics of carrying out large-scale events, such as Hajj. The study looks at a large, recurring problem as a variable to consider, such as how the flow of people changes over time as well as how location interacts with placement. The predicted data is analyzed using Vensim PLE 32 modeling software, GIS Arc Map 10.2.1, and AnyLogic 7.3.1 software regarding the potential placement of temporal service points, taking into consideration the three dynamic constraints and behavioral aspects: a large population, limitation in time, and space. This research proposes appropriate data analyses to ensure the optimal positioning of the service points with limited time and space for large-scale events. The conceptual framework would be the output of this study. Knowledge may be added to the insights based on the technique.

空腹混凝土坝振动响应试验研究

针对平原地区土层条件较差和地形条件有限的情况,提出一种新型坝——空腹混凝土坝。采用振动台模型试验技术,研究加速度峰值、库水位及防渗墙对该新型坝动力响应的影响。结果表明:(1)在自由场坝基中设置结构可以降低坝基的超孔压响应,削减坝基液化程度。(2)非自由场工况中,加速度峰值的增大加强了坝基的振动幅度,加剧液化程度;坝体上游库水位的存在增加了坝基的有效应力从而降低液化程度;坝基中防渗墙的存在增加了孔压的消散从而降低液化程度。总体来说,加速度峰值对液化程度影响最大,库水位影响次之,防渗墙影响最小。(3)库水位的存在增加了坝体的受力程度导致坝体水平位移响应大于空库工况,防渗墙的存在降低了坝基中的水力梯度导致坝体响应低于无防渗墙工况。但在试验过程中坝体并没出现明显的水平位移变化。

基于多智能体模型的城市洪涝灾害动态风险评估

围绕城市洪涝灾害过程中对人口动态风险评估的需求,在城市水文水动力模型基础上,提出了基于多智能体模型的城市洪涝灾害动态风险评估方法,分别设置孕灾环境智能体、致灾因子智能体、承灾体智能体的运行规则,并给出多智能体之间的通信机制,以实现城市洪涝灾害过程人口动态风险定量评估。以北京市海淀区清河流域某典型排水分区为例,利用SWMM和LISFLOOD-FP模型,模拟50年一遇设计降雨情景下的洪涝灾害过程,并基于NetLogo模型构建城市洪涝灾害承灾体动态风险评估模型对研究区中的人口动态风险进行了评估。结果表明:50年一遇设计降雨情景下,研究区洪涝风险面积从降雨历时T=4 h的0.608 km^(2)增加到T=30h的2.202 km^(2);常规模拟情景下,研究区低风险人口数持续下降、高风险人口数持续上升,最终低风险人口数稳定占比为75.75%,高风险人口数稳定占比为22.85%;在设置救援避险策略后,研究区低风险人口数先下降后升高,在T=4.5 h时,最低人口数占比为92.30%,而高风险人口数先升高后降低,最高人口数占比为7.07%,最终低风险人口数稳定占比为100%。

基于多Agent的混凝土坝施工仿真与优化研究

混凝土坝施工仿真的复杂建模过程限制了其成为混凝土坝施工管理的有效手段。将智能化仿真与混凝土坝施工仿真相结合,提出了基于多Agent的混凝土坝施工仿真与优化方法。采用多策略建模方法来构建具有不同智能层次的Agent模型,简化了Agent模型的实现过程;阐述了混凝土坝施工过程仿真中仿真行为推理建模、规则知识的获取与应用、Agent间的通信与协商机制等多Agent实现方法;建立混凝土坝施工仿真系统Agent分类的整体模型结构,并论述了该系统的实现过程。基于多Agent的混凝土坝施工仿真系统的开发,增强了施工仿真的可信度和适用范围,实际工程的应用验证了该系统的有效性。

基于自适应Agent的入侵检测系统研究

探讨了利用入侵检测自治代理和自适应模型生成相结合的系统方案,提出了动态逻辑连接的方法,有效降低了系统的配置难Agent度,同时提高了系统运行的可靠性和容错性。

Agent动态交互信任预测与行为异常检测模型

在agent理论中,信任计算是一个有意义的研究方向.然而目前agent信任研究都是以平均交互成功率来计算,较少考虑信任动态变化,因而准确预测和行为异常检测的能力不能令人满意.针对上述问题,以概率论为工具,按时间分段交互历史给出agent交互信任计算模型CMAIT;结合信任的变化率,给出信任计算的置信度和异常检测机制.实验以网上电子商务为背景,实验结果显示该计算模型的预测误差为TRAVOS的0.5倍,计算量也较少;既可用于对手历史行为的异常检测,防止被欺骗,又可用于对手未来行为的预测.改进了Jennings等人关于agent信任的工作.

移动Agent系统中的排队机制研究

针对现有的移动Agent系统缺乏排队机制的课题,定义了Agent排队系统的概念,然后分别给出了单工作节点和复合工作节点的排队模型,讨论了其中的排队规则、服务规则和Agent派遣机制等关键技术.实验和分析表明,引入排队机制可以明显改善Agent和工作节点的运行质量.

基于Agent动态网络的疾病传播模型

提出一个基于Agent动态网络的疾病传播模型,研究疾病在人群中传播扩散的动态过程。在扩展疾病传播的SIR模型基础上,利用不同的个体状态描述各阶段病情。在二维规则网络上,通过增加个体自主移动性构建动态社会网络,并考虑个体异质性和所采取的防护措施对疾病传播的影响。仿真结果表明,该模型较好地反映了动态社会网络和个体适应性行为对疾病传播的影响,并与实际情况基本保持一致。

基于Agent的协同关系模型研究

在分析协同环境中Agent之间协同关系特征的基础上,本文提出并定义了一种基于Agent的协同关系模型(ACRM),该模型引入了时间和空间的机制,用于描述现实世界的协同环境中Agent动态协同过程。通过应用实例说明该模型解决了动态协同过程中协同关系变化等问题。

规范多agent系统动态模型及其属性验证机制

针对规范多Agent系统(NMAS)并发性、动态性和规范性的特点,提出了一种规范多Agent系统动态模型和基于模型检验的属性验证机制.其中动态模型包括行为约束规范语言TNAL和联合行为转移结构两大部分.TNAL以现实世界法律法规为参考,实现了规范的时态特性和道义特性的建模.联合行为转移结构以多Agent联合行为作为状态转移标记,以规范剪枝后的计算树描述规范系统的动态语义,使系统属性描述语言和规范语言相互独立.以CTL*作为系统属性描述语言,借助现有模型检验工具即可实现NMAS的属性验证,这种实现方式使系统验证工作具有更高的灵活性.

灌装生产线虚拟环境的多Agent建模研究

通过对灌装生产线虚拟环境的特点和描述方法分析,提出了灌装生产线虚拟环境Multi-Agent新的建模方法。将复杂的生产线系统化为主Agent与子Agent的空间网络关系,对主Agent结构中的六元组进行了定义,用消息传递机制来描述虚拟生产线动态实体的行为机制,构造了Multi-Agent系统总体框架。利用WTK和VC++开发了虚拟灌装生产线仿真系统。应用结果表明:该系统具有实用性、有效性,为企业生产线工艺立体布置设计、系统优化、决策、关键设备可制造性的评估提供了集成工具。

重力坝地震断裂的多边形比例边界有限元模型研究

为研究重力坝的地震断裂破坏机理,基于线弹性断裂力学和多边形比例边界有限元法(Polygon SBFEM)提出一种全自动的重力坝动态断裂分析模型。该模型继承了SBFEM在断裂分析中高精度和高效率的优势,通过建立多边形比例边界有限单元广义动态应力强度因子的时域分析方法实现任意时刻断裂参数的求解,并结合裂缝扩展准则可实时判定裂缝稳定性;对达到临界状态的裂缝采用多边形网格局部重剖分技术,开发了考虑裂缝张开-闭合行为的动态接触模拟算法,进而实现了裂缝动态扩展高效自动化模拟。以Koyna重力坝为研究对象,考虑大坝库水动力相互作用,模拟了地震作用下坝体裂缝扩展过程,获得了断裂路径,验证了模型的正确性。其后,进一步探讨了数值模型中网格密度和裂缝扩展步长等因素的影响,结果显示仅用粗网格即可获得满意的计算结果,且三种裂缝扩展步长模拟的大坝裂缝扩展轨迹接近,但随着裂缝扩展步长增大,大坝更早失效破坏。研究成果可为混凝土坝的地震断裂分析提供有力的技术手段。

基于HYDRUS-1D模型的水库近坝区土壤水分动态模拟

为探究五强溪水库近坝区土壤水分动态变化规律,以研究区内土壤墒情站为研究对象,利用实测逐日降雨与逐日蒸发数据驱动HYDRUS-1D模型反演土壤水力特性参数,分别在深度为10、20、40 cm观察点处进行土壤水分动态模拟,探讨研究区土壤水分动态变化规律及模型的应用效果。结果表明:不同观察点土壤水分模拟值与实测值的决定系数平均值为0.74,纳什效率系数平均值为0.71,均方根误差在0.011~0.035 cm^(3)/cm^(3)之间;0~10 cm深度的土壤水分对降雨和蒸发的响应最灵敏,波动最大;在水库主汛期(4—6月份)土壤水分变化平稳,且保持在较高的水平;研究期内7—12月份土壤水分在较大降雨情况下出现短暂饱和,土壤干湿变化明显,模拟值与实测值吻合度较高;整体上,HYDRUS-1D模型在研究区土壤水分动态模拟中具有较高的精度,可为研究区土壤水分估计及其动态变化规律研究提供有效方法。

基于agent的两区域旅游系统非均衡动态模拟

建立中国沿海与内陆两区域旅游系统模型,在空间经济学演绎模型的基础上,通过基于agent建模(agent-based modeling)的计算实验方法,探讨市场需求、区域间和区域内旅游产品的替代弹性、固定成本投入以及区位和交通条件等影响因素对区域旅游系统演化的非均衡动态过程。模拟表明,旅游往往集聚在具有区位优势、规模经济和消费能力的沿海地区,而交通条件的持续改善、沿海与内陆区域间以及区域内部旅游产品和服务的持续差异化将有助于加快中国内陆地区旅游产业的空间集聚过程,并且收入水平越高、外部需求越大对区域旅游系统的动态影响越大。