Glacier area change (1993-2019) and its relationship to debris cover, proglacial lakes, and morphological parameters in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin, Western Himalaya, India

Glacier inventories serve as critical baseline data for understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers.The present study maps the outlines of glaciers in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin(western Himalaya)for the years 1993,2000,2010,and 2019 using Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM),Enhanced Thematic Mapper(ETM),and Operational Land Imager(OLI)datasets.A total of 251 glaciers,each having an area above 0.5 km^(2),were identified,which include 216 clean-ice and 35 debris-covered glaciers.Area changes are estimated for three periods:1993-2000,2000-2010,and 2010-2019.The total glacierized area was 996±62 km^(2) in 1993,which decreased to 973±70 km^(2) in 2019.The mean rate of glacier area loss was higher in the recent decade(2010-2019),at 0.036 km^(2),compared to previous decades(0.029 km^(2) in 2000-2010 and 0.025 km^(2) in 1993-2000).Supraglacial debris cover changes are also mapped over the period of 1993 and 2019.It is found that the supraglacial debris cover increased by 14.12±2.54 km^(2)(15.2%)during 1993-2019.Extensive field surveys on Chhota Shigri,Panchi II,Patsio,Hamtah,Mulkila,and Yoche Lungpa glaciers were carried out to validate the glacier outlines and supraglacial debris cover estimated using satellite datasets.Controls of various morphological parameters on retreat were also analyzed.It is observed that small,clean ice,south oriented glaciers,and glaciers with proglacial lakes are losing area at faster rates than other glaciers in the basin.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Drives Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Qinghai Lake Area

Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area.

Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake

Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.

Mapping of moraine dammed glacial lakes and assessment of their areal changes in the central and eastern Himalayas using satellite data

The relatively rapid recession of glaciers in the Himalayas and formation of moraine dammed glacial lakes(MDGLs) in the recent past have increased the risk of glacier lake outburst floods(GLOF) in the countries of Nepal and Bhutan and in the mountainous territory of Sikkim in India. As a product of climate change and global warming, such a risk has not only raised the level of threats to the habitation and infrastructure of the region, but has also contributed to the worsening of the balance of the unique ecosystem that exists in this domain that sustains several of the highest mountain peaks of the world. This study attempts to present an up to date mapping of the MDGLs in the central and eastern Himalayan regions using remote sensing data, with an objective to analyse their surface area variations with time from 1990 through 2015, disaggregated over six episodes. The study also includes the evaluation for susceptibility of MDGLs to GLOF with the least criteria decision analysis(LCDA). Forty two major MDGLs, each having a lake surface area greater than 0.2 km2, that were identified in the Himalayan ranges of Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim, have been categorized according to their surface area expansion rates in space and time. The lakes have been identified as located within the elevation range of 3800 m and6800 m above mean sea level(a msl). With a total surface area of 37.9 km2, these MDGLs as a whole were observed to have expanded by an astonishing 43.6% in area over the 25 year period of this study. A factor is introduced to numerically sort the lakes in terms of their relative yearly expansion rates, based on their interpretation of their surface area extents from satellite imageries. Verification of predicted GLOF events in the past using this factor with the limited field data as reported in literature indicates that the present analysis may be considered a sufficiently reliable and rapid technique for assessing the potential bursting susceptibility of the MDGLs. The analysis also indicates that, as of now, there are eight MDGLs in the region which appear to be in highly vulnerable states and have high chances in causing potential GLOF events anytime in the recent future.

Lake Area Changes and the main causes in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert during 1973–2010,China

Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years. Results indicated that the nttmber of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km2 during 1973-2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during 1973-1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than 0.2 km2, while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km2 only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors.

The spatial-temporal changes of the land use/cover in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade

The research on the land use/cover change is one of the frontiers and the hot spots in the global change research. Based on the Chinese resource and environment spatial-temporal database, and using the Landsat TM and ETM data of 1990 and 2000 respectively, we analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use/cover changes in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade. The result shows that during the last ten years there were three land-use types that had changed remarkably. The cultivated land decreased by 0.57% of the total cultivated land. The built-up land and water area expanded, with an increase of 8.97% and 0.43% respectively. The conversion between land use types mostly happened among these three land-use types, especially frequently between cultivated land and water area. The land-use change speed of land-use type is different. Three cities experienced the greatest degree of land-use change among all the administrative districts, which means that the land use in these cities changed much quickly. The following changed area was the west and south of the Dongting Lake area. The slowest changed area is the north and east area.

Analysis on the Characteristics of Climate Changes in the Surrounding Area of Qinghai Lake

[Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of climate changes in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake.[Method] Based on the data of temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours from 5 representative meteorological stations in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake during 1961-2007,the annual,seasonal and decadal variation of meteorological factors were analyzed.[Result] In recent 47 years,temperature showed obvious increase trend in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake,and annual average temperature increased with the climatic tendency of ≥0.30 ℃/10 a,while annual average minimum temperature increased more significant than annual average temperature and annual average maximum temperature;annual mean precipitation decreased with the climatic tendency of-3.67 mm/10 a,and precipitation in spring and autumn reduced obviously,while precipitation in summer and winter increased slightly;annual sunshine hours also showed decrease trend with the climatic tendency of-1.79 h/10 a,while sunshine hours decreased most obviously in summer,and next came winter,while there was no obvious decrease in spring and autumn.[Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical references for the effective prevention of meteorological disasters in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake.

Climate-Driven Changes in Lake Areas for the Last Half Century in the Valley of Lakes, Govi Region, Southern Mongolia

This study presents the changes in lake areas in the Valley of Lakes, the Govi region, southern Mongolia. The recent changes in lake areas show decreases depending on vulnerability of lake basins and response of Govi landscape to the present climatic warming. During the recent 44 - 45 years (from 1970 to 2014 or 2015), modern lakes have encountered the present rapid increase in temperature, water evaporation and drying up that induced the reduction in lake areas in the Valley of Lakes. The finding of the reduction in lake areas is consistent with the trends on increasing in temperature since 1995 and fluctuating precipitation since 1975. Investigations with detailed chronology of lake sediment are needed from the lakes to review a more complete evolution of lake basins during the Late Quaternary paleoclimatic history in Mongolia and Central Asia.

Dynamic Changes of Lakes in Tibet Plateau and the Climate Interaction in the Past Forty Years

Lake change,as a mirror of climate change,has obvious indication and warning effect on climate.By extracting information of all lakes in Tibet Plateau from Landsat of the 1970’s,the 1990’s,around 2000 and 2010 based on RS and GIS,and,in combination with on-the-spot investigations to a few representative lakes,the authors

Study on dynamic changes of land desertification in the circum-lake zone of the Qinghai Lake in the past 30 years supported by Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System

The circum-lake zone of the Qinghai Lake is one of the most serious regions of desertification on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Based on Remote Sensing （RS） and Geographical Information System （GIS） techniques, the four sets of remote sensing images acquired in 1976, 1987, 1995, and 2006 were selected to conduct thematic information extraction in 14,300 km2 of land in the circum-lake zone using the Earth Resource Data Analysis System （ERDAS） image and information processing function. In the meantime the off-site interpretation and filed check-correction methods were used to recon- struct the temporal-spatial dynamic changes and differentiation patterns of land desertification in the circum-lake zone in the past 30 years, and based on this, the developmental trend of land desertification in the next 20 years was predicted. The results of the study show that in the past 30 years land desertification in the region experienced a continuous fluctuation between rapid- and slow-development processes in time, while in space it exhibited a few small patchy distributions or sporadic distributions in many places while at the same time, four large sand-dominated distributions stood out and evolved into a circum-lake belt differentiation pattern with a lakeside dike as the connecting line. Due to the integrated effects of climate changes, human activities and artificial rehabilitation, land desertification area in the region in the next 20 years will exhibit an increasing trend in the first 15 years and then increase at a slower rate, and afterward occur in a reverse, decreasing trend.

Analysis on the Area of Dongting Lake Before and After Building Three Gorges Dam Based on MODIS Image Sequences

[Objective] This study aimed to analyze the changes in the area of Donting Lake before and after building Three Gorges Dam based on MODIS image sequences. [Method] Based on the MODIS image sequences of 2000-2010, the change in the area of Dongting Lake in dry season and wet season before and after building Three Gorges Dam was analyzed, and the correlation between the change of the lake area in flood season and drought season and the record of Chenglingji Hydrological Observation Station was studied. [Result] The construction of Three Gorges Dam greatly influenced the area of Dongting Lake in dry season and wet season that in dry season, the linear relationship between the lake area and the waterline of Chenglingji was weak, while it was strong in wet season. [Conclusion] This study can estimate the changes of the area of Dongting Lake through the analysis on the waterline changes in Chenglingji, providing basis for the study on the changes in the area of Dongting Lake.

Analysis on Change of the Vegetation Cover in Poyang Lake Area from 1991 to 2005

[Objective] The reseamh aimed to analyze variation of the vegetation cover in Poyang Lake area from 1991 to 2005. [Method] Based on Landsat TM remote sensing images of 1991 and 2005 in Poyang Lake area, NDVI dimidiate pixel model was used to calculate vegetation cover- age. By transfer matrix, temporal-spatial change of the vegetation cover grade in the area was analyzed. [ Result] Vegetation cover in this region overall presented increase trend from 1991 to 2005, and forestry area increased somewhat. But at the same time, farmland area decreased to some extent. Sandlot and bare land also increased slightly. [ Conclusion] Governments and relevant departments should reasonably allocate land re- sources and protect natural ecology environment.

The response of lake change to climate fluctuation in north Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in last 30 years

According to the analysis of the climate materials including the topographic map in 1975, the TM and CBERS satellite remote sensing materials from the 1980s to 2005 as well as the air temperature, precipitation, evaporation rate, maximum depth of snow and the biggest depth of frozen soil in the past 45 years, the water level area of four lakes at the southeast of Nagqu, Tibet including Barn Co, Pung Co, Dung Co and Nuripung Co show a distinct trend of expansion in the past 30 years. In 2005, the water level area of the above four lakes increased by 48.2 km^2, 38.2 km^2, 19.8 km^2 and 26.0 km^2 respectively compared to 1975, with the respective increase rate of 25.6%, 28.2%, 16.2% and 37.6%. That is closely related to the warming and humidified climate change in the recent years such as rise of the air temperature increase of the precipitation, decrease of the evaporation rate and permafrost degradation.

Modeling the Hydrological Dynamic of the Breeding Water Bodies in Barkedji’s Zone

Temporary water bodies’ dynamics play an important role in the epidemiological chain-borne diseases such as Rift Valley fever as they are the main breeding habitats for mosquitoes. During the rainy season, hundreds of these temporary water bodies appear and grow in the Ferlo region (Senegal). The purpose of this research is to generate historical and future time series water levels and areas at three temporary ponds located in the environment and health observatory of Barkedji. A simple lumped hydrological model was developed for that purpose. It describes each pond watershed as three interconnected reservoirs: canopy, surface storage and soil storage and uses a linear relation to describe infiltration, percolation and baseflow (out of the soil reservoir). Given the depth of the water table in the region, percolation out of the soil surface is considered lost. Evapotraspiration was calculated using the Penman equation and withdraws water from the canopy and surface water reservoirs. Excess runoff from the soil storage is turned into runoff using a triangular unit hydrograph. The calibration was done using two years of hydrological and climatic data collected during the 2011 and 2012 rainy seasons. The calibration was successful and water level in the two ponds was simulated with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 11.2 to 15 cm. Because of the short duration of the observation, no validation could be done. Given the excellent agreement of the simulated and observed water levels during the calibration phase, the modeling exercise was considered to be successful. The developed models were used to generate historical time series of pond areas and correlate these to mosquitoes’ infestation in the region. Future time series of pond areas were also generated using downscaled outputs of three regional climate models from the AMMA ENSEMBLES experiment. The generated pond levels and areas are being used to assess the evolution of the disease in the next 40 years.

Preface:Value and dynamics of salt lakes in a changing world

The statement that the world’s ecosystems are rapidly deteriorating due to human intervention and global warming is nowadays commonplace.Some of the ecosystems most heavily impacted are inland salt lakes.The salt lakes are among the most valuable and fascinating ecosystems on Earth,and their study has both basic scientifi c interest as well as applied aspects.

Dynamic change of desertified land in each county around Qinghai Lake in recent 30 years

Desertification is one of the most serious eco-environmental problems around Qinghai Lake.Based on GIS and RS,GIS analysis was used to obtain the information of spatial-temporal change and different pattern of desertification in each county around Qinghai Lake in four phases of1976,1987,1995 and 2006.Using the function of intersect and overlay supported by ARCGIS,with analyzing attributes of vector RS images,we obtained transition data and established transfer matrix of land-use types in recent 30 years,besides,protracted land-use transition maps of all desertification classes.In further,we analyzed transition quantity and direction of desertification in each county,moreover,reconstructed the process of spatial-temporal evolution of desertification.The results are showed below:(1)it's the transition between desertified land and others but not in the desertified that played the main role in Gangcha and Gonghe County,while the transfer between desertified lands were greater than that with other land-use types in Haiyan County.(2)Extremely severe desertified land mainly distributes in Ketu and Sand Islands that belongs to Haiyan County,and moderate desertified land in riversides of Gangcha County,also,the light desertification expanded too rapidly to become the most desertified land-use type in the surrounding of Qinghai Lake since 1976.(3)By using relative change rate of desertified land,the regional variability rank from top to toe was Gangcha,Haiyan and Gonghe.

Evidence for Accelerating Glacier Ice Loss in the Takht' e Solaiman Mountains of Iran from 1955 to 2010

This study reports on the clean ice area and surface elevation changes of the Khersan and Merjikesh glaciers in the north of Iran between 1955 and 2010 based on several high to medium spatial resolution remote sensing data.The object-oriented classification technique has been applied to nine remote sensing images to estimate the debris-free areas.The satellite-based analysis revealed that the clean ice areas of Khersan and Merjikesh glaciers shrank since 2010 with an overall area decrease of about 45% and 60% respectively.It means that the dramatic proportions of 1955 glaciers surface area are covered with debris during the last five decades.Although the general trend is a clean ice area decrease,some advancement is observed over the period of 1997-2004.During 1987-1991 the maximum decrease in the clean ice area was observed.However,the clean ice area had steadily increased between 1997 and 2010.To quantify the elevation changes besides the debris-free change analysis,several Digital Elevation Models(DEMs) were extracted from aerial photo(1955),topographic map(1997),ASTER image(2002) and Worldview-2 image(2010) and after it a 3-D Coregistration and a linear relationship adjustments techniques were used to remove the systematic shifts and elevation dependent biases.Unlike the sinusoidal variation of our case studies which was inferred from planimetric analysis,the elevation change results revealed that the glacier surface lowering has occurred during 1955-2010 continuously without any thickening with the mean annual thinning of about 0.4 ± 0.04 m per year and 0.3 ± 0.026 m per year for Khersan and Merjikesh glaciers,respectively.The maximum thinning rate has been observed during 1997-2002(about 1.1 ± 0.09 per year and 0.96 ± 0.01 mper year,respectively),which was compatible partially with debris-free change analysis.The present result demonstrates that although in debris-covered glaciers clean ice area change analysis can illustrate the direction of changes(retreat or advance),due to the high uncertainty in glacier area delineation in such glaciers,it cannot reveal the actual glacier changes.Thus,both planimetric and volumetric change analyses are very critical to obtain accurate glacier variation results.

基于LUCC的生态系统服务价值时空演变——以祁连山区域为例

分析祁连山区域生态系统服务价值的时空变化特征,可为该区土地高效开发利用、生态恢复与保护机制的构建提供数据支撑。基于1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据,运用改进的当量因子定量评估祁连山区域不同历史时期的生态系统服务价值,结合空间自相关及GIS空间统计方法,探究研究区不同乡镇的地均生态系统服务价值时空变化特征。结果表明:1)1980-2020年,研究区主要土地类型为未利用地、草地、林地、耕地,总覆盖率在93%以上。其中林地和未利用地面积减少,建设用地动态度变化最大。2)1980-2020年,祁连山区域生态系统服务总价值增加了170.8285×10^(8)元,其中草地、林地和水域的生态服务价值占78%,水文调节和气候调节的生态服务价值占60.14%。3)地均生态系统服务价值的空间正相关性较明显,空间集聚程度较高。高值聚集区有由增加向减少转变的趋势,低值聚集区逐年增加。4)1980-2010年,祁连山区域南部生态系统服务价值高于北部,北部生态系统服务价值在2010年后有增加趋势,但研究区南北间生态系统服务价值还未达到均衡和稳定。

1973—2017年西藏盐湖湖面动态变迁及对气候波动的响应

西藏是我国主要盐湖成盐区之一,蕴藏着丰富的矿产资源。应用遥感和地理信息系统技术,从5个时间段的Landsat遥感影像中提取了西藏面积大于20 km^(2)的93个盐湖(不包括干盐湖),影像成像时间分别为1973—1977年、1990年前后、2000年前后、2010年前后和2017年,建立了西藏盐湖空间数据库,并分析了其1973—2017年的变化趋势。结论为:(1)总体上盐湖总面积呈增加趋势,且2000年之后,盐湖扩张趋势加剧,至2017年,被研究盐湖总面积已增至1990年前后的1.68倍。(2)从20世纪70年代至90年代,西藏中北部盐湖呈萎缩趋势,其余地区扩张。(3)盐湖湖面变迁与气候波动密切相关,1971—1990年气温和降雨量波动不大,引起西藏中北部盐湖萎缩的主要原因为冰川和冰雪融水补给的减少;1991—2017年气温升高降雨量增加、蒸发量减少,导致西藏盐湖呈现全面扩张的趋势。(4)扎布耶盐湖湖面动态变迁遥感解译结果与扎布耶长期观测站水位观测数据基本一致。1973—2009年其水位整体上呈波动式上升的趋势,而从2009年开始有所下降。landsat8从2013年开始免费提供多时相的遥感影像,可做西藏盐湖动态变迁的持续观测。盐湖水深和成分应作为以后重点解决的问题。

昆仑山北坡水资源科学考察初报

2021年10月首批启动了第三次新疆科学考察——“昆仑山北坡水资源开发潜力及利用途径科学考察”。结合多源遥感信息和2022—2023年野外科考工作,对昆仑山北坡的水文水资源变化和水资源利用进行了调查研究。结果表明:(1)1990—2020年,昆仑山北坡山区的气温、降水分别以0.14℃·(10a)^(-1)和6.53 mm·(10a)^(-1)幅度增加。(2)冰川变化相对稳定,积雪面积和积雪深度表现为略微增加。(3)永久性水体和季节性水体面积分别显著增加79.89%和144.49%。(4)东昆仑-库木库里盆地的阿牙克库木湖和阿其克库勒湖两大湖泊的水域面积分别增加了68.91%和58.22%,盆地内多条河流具备水资源开发潜力。(5)昆仑山北坡陆地水储量总体呈增加趋势,表现为从西向东增加趋势越加显著。(6)昆仑山北坡的主要河流和田河、克里雅河和车尔臣河年均径流量2010—2023年较1957—2023年分别增加了20.24%、27.85%和45.17%。(7)基于不同气候变化情景模拟预测至21世纪中后叶,主要河流径流量将保持上升态势,区域水资源量总体呈增加趋势。昆仑山北坡的水资源禀赋可为区域绿色高质量发展提供有利的水资源保障条件。