Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in the Urban Watershed of Kimemi River (Butembo/D.R.C)

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) influence hydrological processes in a watershed. This study analyses the dynamics of LULC in the Kimemi watershed from 1987 to 2021. GIS and remote sensing tools as well as landscape pattern analysis were used to achieve this purpose. The results reveal that the LULC change is globally marked by an increase in the bare land and building at the expense of the low vegetation (grassland). Between 1987 and 2011, the bare land and buildings (Tg = 61.33%) and the woodland (Tg = 34.2%) classes increased, whereas the grassland class decreased (Tg = -39.5%). On the other hand, between 2011 and 2015, the bare land and building class still increased (Tg = 29.9%) while that of grassland and woodland decreased with Tg = -37.3% and Tg = -4.9%, respectively. Finally, the dynamics observed from 2015 to 2021 is marked by small changes between classes with Tg values of 2.1%, 1.9% and -8.9%, respectively, for the bare land and building, grassland and woodland classes, respectively. The main spatial transformation processes observed are creation and dissection for the bare land and building class, and the grassland class respectively. In particular, the woodland class underwent the creation process between 1987 and 2011 before undergoing attrition (2011-2015-2021). Reduced vegetated areas give rise to new planning decisions to mitigate the hydrological risks that could result from this situation.

International Conference on Land Use / Cover Change Dynamics

Organized by: Beijing Normal University, National Natural Science Foundation of China Hosted by: Institute of Resources Science, Beijing Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of ChinaTopics:1) Detecting and monitoring LUCC2) Temporal-spatial characteristics in LUCC3) Driving model for LUCC4) Forecasting and modeling LUCC 5) Phenological and biochemical response on LUCC6) Regional LUCC and microclimate 7) LUCC in the context of global change8) Impact of global change on the sustainable land-use modelingAbstract submission: The official language of this conference is English. We invite papers written in English and an abstract of less than one page of standard A4 size to the Conference Secretariat by Apr 15, 2001. Registration Fee: 280 US$ (300 US$ after July 15, 2001)Add：No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, 100875, Institute of Resources Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaTel：86-10-62207656 or 62209024 Fax：010-62208178http:// 202.112.93.50/LUCCD2001/index.htmlE-mail: Pwang@bnu.edu.cn Cyh@bnu.edu.

Drivers of Land Cover Dynamics for Pugu and Kazimuzumbwi Forest Reserves in Kisarawe, Tanzania

Forests that are close to growing urban centres have been subject to constant deforestation and degradation from various factors. This study assesses the drivers of land cover dynamics in Pugu and Kazimzumbwi forest reserves in the context of urban and peri-urban expansion of Dar es Salaam for the past three decades. The study adopted review of relevant literature and household survey from three settlements surrounding the forest reserves. One hundred and fifty (150) households were collected from Buyuni, Chanika and Masaki in Ilala and Kisarawe and administered with semi-structured questionnaire to collect information on migration, use of forest products by communities and perception on climate change and variability. SPSS computer program was used to analyse the questionnaire data while tables and graphs were adopted for presentation of the results. Rural-urban and internal urban migration in Dar es Salaam was identified as one of the primary drivers of land cover dynamics in peri-urban areas and adjoining environments. The migration was intensified by push drivers which include urban growth, market of land and reliance on forest product among community members as source of their livelihoods. The increased rainfall variability accompanied with high temperature has contributed to frequent droughts which compromises rainfed agriculture. Thus, the successful conservation of the forest will require strengthened enforcement of protection measures supported with introduction of alternative livelihood strategies for majority of poor community members.

Assessment of multifunctional landscapes dynamics in the mountainous basin of the Mo River （Togo, West Africa）

In this study, historical landscape dynamics were investigated to（i） map the land use/cover types for the years 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2014;（ii） determine the types and processes of landscape dynamics; and（iii） assess the landscape fragmentation and habitat loss over time. Supervised classification of multi-temporal Landsat images was used through a pixel-based approach. Post–classification methods included systematic and random change detection, trajectories analysis and landscape fragmentation assessment. The overall accuracies（and Kappa statistics） were of 68.86%（0.63）, 91.32%（0.79）, 90.66%（0.88） and 91.88%（0.89） for 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2014, respectively. The spatio-temporal analyses indicated that forests, woodlands and savannahs dominated the landscapes during the four dates, though constant areal decreases were observed. The most important dynamic process was the decline of woodlands with an average annual net loss rate of –2%. Meanwhile, the most important land transformation occurred during the transition 2000–2014, due to anthropogenic pressures. Though the most important loss of vegetation greenness occurred in the unprotected areas, the overall analyses of change indicated a declining trend of land cover quality and an increasing landscape fragmentation. Sustainable conservation strategies should be promoted while focusing restoration attention on degraded lands and fragmented ecosystems in order to support rural livelihood and biodiversity conservation.

Evaluation of CMIP5 Earth System Models in Reproducing Leaf Area Index and Vegetation Cover over the Tibetan Plateau

The abilities of 12 earth system models（ESMs） from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5（CMIP5） to reproduce satellite-derived vegetation biological variables over the Tibetan Plateau（TP） were examined.The results show that most of the models tend to overestimate the observed leaf area index（LAI）and vegetation carbon above the ground,with the possible reasons being overestimation of photosynthesis and precipitation.The model simulations show a consistent increasing trend with observed LAI over most of the TP during the reference period of 1986-2005,while they fail to reproduce the downward trend around the headstream of the Yellow River shown in the observation due to their coarse resolutions.Three of the models：CCSM4,CESM1-BGC,and NorESM1-ME,which share the same vegetation model,show some common strengths and weaknesses in their simulations according to our analysis.The model ensemble indicates a reasonable spatial distribution but overestimated land coverage,with a significant decreasing trend（-1.48%per decade） for tree coverage and a slight increasing trend（0.58%per decade） for bare ground during the period 1950-2005.No significant sign of variation is found for grass.To quantify the relative performance of the models in representing the observed mean state,seasonal cycle,and interannual variability,a model ranking method was performed with respect to simulated LAI.INMCM4,bcc-csm-1.1m,MPI-ESM-LR,IPSL CM5A-LR,HadGEM2-ES,and CCSM4 were ranked as the best six models in reproducing vegetation dynamics among the 12 models.