Research and application of real-time monitoring and early warning thresholds for multi-temporal agricultural products information

Monitoring and early warning is an important means to effectively prevent risks in agricultural production,consumption and price.In particular,with the change of modes of national administration against the background of big data,improving the capacity to monitor agricultural products is of great significance for macroeconomic decision-making.Agricultural product information early warning thresholds are the core of agricultural product monitoring and early warning.How to appropriately determine the early warning thresholds of multi-temporal agricultural product information is a key question to realize real-time and dynamic monitoring and early warning.Based on the theory of abnormal fluctuation of agricultural product information and the research of substantive impact on the society,this paper comprehensively discussed the methods to determine the thresholds of agricultural product information fluctuation in different time dimensions.Based on the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBSC)and survey data,this paper used a variety of statistical methods to determine the early warning thresholds of the production,consumption and prices of agricultural products.Combined with Delphi expert judgment correction method,it finally determined the early warning thresholds of agricultural product information in multiple time,and carried out early warning analysis on the fluctuation of agricultural product monitoring information in 2018.The results show that:(1)the daily,weekly and monthly monitoring and early warning thresholds of agricultural products play an important early warning role in monitoring abnormal fluctuations with agricultural products;(2)the multitemporal monitoring and early warning thresholds of agricultural product information identified by the research institute can provide effective early warning on current abnormal fluctuation of agricultural product information,provide a benchmarking standard for China's agricultural production,consumption and price monitoring and early warning at the national macro level,and further improve the application of China's agricultural product monitoring and early warning.

Research on Technology Early-Warning System Based on Dynamic Information Monitoring

Relying on the advanced information technologies, such as information monitoring, data mining, natural language processing etc., the dynamic technology early-warning system is constructed. The system consists of technology information automatic retrieval, technology information monitoring, technology threat evaluation, and crisis response and management subsystem, which implements uninterrupted dynamic monitoring, trace and crisis early-warning to the specific technology. Empirical study testifies that the system improves the accuracy, timeliness and reliability of technology early-warning.

Mechanism,prevention,and control of mining-induced dynamic disasters in underground metal mines in China:Challenges and solutions

Metal mineral resources play an indispensable role in the development of the national economy.Dynamic disasters in underground metal mines seriously threaten mining safety,which are major scientific and technological problems to be solved urgently.In this article,the occurrence status and grand challenges of some typical dynamic disasters involving roof falling,spalling,collapse,large deformation,rockburst,surface subsidence,and water inrush in metal mines in China are systematically presented,the characteristics of mining-induced dynamic disasters are analyzed,the examples of dynamic disasters occurring in some metal mines in China are summarized,the occurrence mechanism,monitoring and early warning methods,and prevention and control techniques of these disasters are highlighted,and some new opinions,suggestions,and solutions are proposed simultaneously.Moreover,some shortcomings in current disaster research are pointed out,and the direction of efforts to improve the prevention and control level of dynamic disasters in China’s metal mines in the future is prospected.The integration of forward-looking key innovative theories and technologies in the abovementioned aspects will greatly enhance the cognitive level of disaster prevention and mitigation in China’s metal mining industry and achieve a significant shift from passive disaster relief to active disaster prevention.

Comprehensive early warning of rock burst utilizing microseismic multi-parameter indices

Rock bursts have become one of the most severe risks in underground coal mining and its early warning is an important component in the safety management. Microseismic(MS) monitoring is considered potentially as a powerful tool for the early warning of rock burst. In this study, an MS multi-parameter index system was established and the critical values of each index were estimated based on the normalized multi-information warning model of coal-rock dynamic failure. This index system includes bursting strain energy(BSE) index, time-space-magnitude independent information(TSMII) indices and timespace-magnitude compound information(TSMCI) indices. On the basis of this multi-parameter index system, a comprehensive analysis was conducted via introducing the R-value scoring method to calculate the weights of each index. To calibrate the multi-parameter index system and the associated comprehensive analysis, the weights of each index were first confirmed using historical MS data occurred in LW402102 of Hujiahe Coal Mine(China) over a period of four months. This calibrated comprehensive analysis of MS multi-parameter index system was then applied to pre-warn the occurrence of a subsequent rock burst incident in LW 402103. The results demonstrate that this multi-parameter index system combined with the comprehensive analysis are capable of quantitatively pre-warning rock burst risk.

Coalbursts in China: Theory, practice and management

Coalburst is one of the most serious disasters that threaten the safe production of coal mines, and this disaster is particularly serious in China. This paper presents an overview of coalbursts in China since 1980s. From the "stress and energy" and "regional and local" perspectives, the achievements in the theory, practice and management of coalbursts in China are systematically summarized. A theoretical system of coalbursts has been formed to reveal the deformational behavior of coalbursts and explain the mechanism of coalbursts. The occurrence conditions of coalbursts are put forward and the critical stress is obtained. The stress index method for risk evaluation of coalbursts before mining is proposed, and the deformation localization prediction method of coalbursts is put forward. The relationship between energy release and absorption in the process of coalbursts is found, and the prevention and control methods of coalbursts, including the regional method, the local method and support, are presented. The safety evaluation index of coalburst prevention and control is put forward. The integrated prevention and control method for coal and gas outbursts is proposed. The prevention and control technology and equipment of coalbursts have also been developed. Amongst them, the distribution law of the critical stress in China coalburst mines is discovered. The technology and equipment for monitoring, prevention and control of coalbursts, as well as for integrated prevention and control of combined coalbursts and other disasters, have been developed. The energy-absorbing and coalburst-preventing support technology for roadways is invented, and key engineering parameters of coalburst prevention and control are pointed out. In China, coalburst prevention and control laws and standards have been developed. Technical standards for coalbursts are formulated, statute and regulations for coal mines are established, and regulatory documents are promoted.

煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害监测预警与防控技术研究进展

煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害是深部煤炭开采的重大安全隐患,探明其致灾机理、发展监测预警及防控技术是防治关键。提出了煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害防治“四面体”理论,即分别从灾害分类、灾害机理、灾害预警、灾害防控4个层面概述煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害研究进展。总结了以能量释放主体、初始瓦斯压力、载荷条件为主的复合动力灾害类型划分依据;梳理了理论分析尺度和实验室尺度下的复合动力灾害机理研究进展,发现应力路径、微裂纹动态演化和煤岩赋存地质因素临界指标是致灾机理研究的关键;概述了以前期灾害前兆信息判识、中期灾害前兆信息采集、后期灾害一体化监测预警为主线的复合动力灾害监测预警技术研究进展;揭示了复合动力灾害消能减灾一体化防控技术和多尺度分源防控关键技术科学内涵。在此基础上针对两淮矿区灾害特点,提出了深部强动载条件下复合动力灾害智能判识与预警方法和分区协同防控方法。基于当前研究进展,提出了煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害研究亟待解决的问题,助力实现深部煤炭安全、精准、高效开采。

南京某高桩码头靠泊能力仿真分析与在线监测预警

高桩码头服役环境复杂,码头结构在数十年的运行期内会发生不同程度的损伤,影响码头的安全运营。在码头运行过程中,船舶荷载是高桩码头结构的主要荷载,对码头结构的安全性、耐久性影响较大。本文对南京港某码头靠泊能力进行了有限元仿真分析,提出船舶靠泊过程中的三级安全预警阈值;结合长期在线监测,为码头结构安全服役提供技术支撑。研究结果表明:在船舶撞击1#排架的情况下,船舶撞击力达到238 kN时,码头结构响应达到三级预警指标,码头位移为3.8 mm,桩基顶部应变为69×10-6;船舶撞击力达到323 kN时,码头结构响应达到二级预警指标,码头位移为5.1 mm,桩基顶部应变为100×10-6;船舶撞击力达到471 kN,码头结构响应达到一级预警指标码头位移为7.5 mm,桩基顶部应变为156×10-6。在线监测预警结果表明,码头结构具备5 000吨级船舶靠泊能力,在规范靠泊的前提下,能够满足8 000吨级船舶靠泊的结构安全要求。

城市地下空间安全监测与预警指标研究

为保障城市地下空间开发利用的安全性,促进城市可持续发展,通过文献调研、现场调查和专家咨询等方法,分析提出城市地下空间监测的五项原则,将监测对象划分为三类:工程结构本体、周围岩土体以及周边环境。将监测指标归纳为变形类、力学类、振动类和宏观状态类共四类,其中变形类指标执行双控要求,其他三种指标执行单控要求。监测趋势预测分析可采用公式法、回归分析法、时间序列分析法、灰色预测法、神经网络法和支持向量机法等。全国各地监测控制值基本一致,但预警分级标准存在地区差异,其中北京市和广州市分级预警具有较大参考价值。目前城市地下空间安全监测存在七项不足:预警分级标准不完善,人工监测效率低,监测参数单一,监测信息缺少共享协同,测量精度较低,重监测轻预测以及缺乏数据融合和机器学习应用。针对这些问题,可采取七项措施进行改进:建立合理预警分级标准,发展自动化与智能化监测,多参数综合监测,应用远程监测与云平台,开发高精度测量设备,监测和预测并重,以及数据融合与机器学习应用。

基于污染物总量控制的资源环境承载力监测预警研究

当资源需求和环境破坏超过资源环境承载力时,后果不堪设想。因此,文章设计基于污染物总量控制的资源环境承载力监测预警,通过测算大气、水、土壤的污染物总量,结合资源承载力指标,构建监测指标体系。利用层次分析法确定各指标权重。根据承载力数值,划分预警等级和污染物排放量控制等级。研究显示:2个区域为红色预警区,需控制污染物排放;1个区域为橙色预警区,可少量排放低污染物;6个区域为黄色预警区,需稍加控制污染物排放;8个区域为蓝色预警区,暂不需控制污染物排放;4个区域为绿色预警区,当前不需控制污染物排放。

矿井煤自燃灾害监测预警技术及发展趋势

以降低矿井火灾的发生率为目标,梳理了矿井煤自燃灾害现有监测预警技术的发展现状,总结了现有技术的局限性和不足,指出未来发展应注重先进监测技术的应用、预测技术准确性的提升、预警系统和智能化管理的发展等。针对矿井煤自燃灾害隐蔽性、持续性、扩散性和难以控制的特点,提出矿井煤自燃灾害监测预警技术未来发展方向:提升煤自然发火临界值确定方法的综合性,利用新兴设备和先进技术完善煤自然发火临界值的确定方法;针对矿井煤自燃复杂环境,可通过研究声波探测等新型先进技术手段,提高矿井煤自燃监测参数的全面性和精细化;推动矿井煤自燃监测预警技术的创新性和决策的智能化,利用数字孪生技术提供精准的模拟与预测能力、优化防控方案、提供培训和应急管理以及数据分析和决策支持等方面的帮助;聚焦矿井自燃灾害全面感知、精准预测与防控智能一体化建设,加强对矿井自燃灾害数据分析、灾前主动预警、灾后事故治理、火区自动封闭等技术的研究。

煤炭企业安全风险动态管控体系质量评价模型

建立科学合理的评价指标体系,开展安全风险动态管控体系质量评价,对于煤炭企业提升安全风险管控工作的科学性和可行性具有重要意义。针对动态变化的安全风险,对煤炭企业目前开展的双重预防机制建设、监测预警系统建设、应急处置等工作进行了解构和重组,构建形成“风险评估综合监测超前预警快速处置”煤炭企业安全风险动态管控框架,阐明各要素之间的信息流转和相互联系。在此基础上,根据相关法规标准要求、学界研究成果等,以事前预防为导向,按照简明扼要、便于操作、科学合理、重点突出的原则,从不同角度对“风险评估综合监测超前预警快速处置”四要素进行画像,进而提出煤炭企业安全风险动态管控体系质量评价指标体系和加权计算模型。通过对某国有重点煤炭企业进行评价实证,表明该模型能够科学客观地评价煤炭企业安全风险动态管控体系质量,为煤炭企业提升安全风险管控工作的科学性和可行性提供合理化建议。

基于大数据挖掘的客户感知监控预警模型

为了及时发现安全隐患,减少预警数据与真实数据存在的偏差,结合大数据挖掘方法构建客户感知监控预警模型。根据客户感知监控数据挖掘关联规则,捕捉电压偏离度、耗损量、电压不平衡率、电流不平衡率指标。结合动态聚类方法,更新客户感知监控数据集群。以聚类中心波动小于设置门限为基准判定收敛性,并计算不同层次间连接权值。在满足收敛性条件下构建监控预警模型,并进行动态预警和划分预警等级,实现客户感知监控预警。实验结果表明,该模型与标准值最大相差0.005 V、0.12 A,说明使用该模型预警范围精准,能够为客户提供精准预警数据。

地铁工程施工阶段安全智能化体系建设思路探讨

为有效提升城市地铁工程施工阶段安全管理成效,探索采用新一代信息技术与城市地铁工程深度融合,全面推进安全数字化建设,搭建城市地铁工程“智能化”安全管理平台。结合现有城市地铁工程实践数据与信息化研究成果,从概念与框架、子系统与功能、建设要求3个方面分析城市地铁工程安全智能化体系的建设思路。智能化建设总体架构介绍了动态监测、预警诊断、协同响应、安全教育等管理系统在施工阶段中的应用,对架构基础动态监测子系统的建设要求进行探讨。

生命体征参数动态监测联合预案式护理在新生儿呼吸窘迫综合征患儿中的应用

目的 探究生命体征参数动态联合预案式护理对新生儿呼吸窘迫综合征(NRDS)患儿中的应用效果。方法 选取2021年1月至2023年2月于平顶山市第一人民医院新生儿重症监护室(NICU)收治的80例NRDS患儿作为研究对象,按照随机数表法分为研究组和对照组各40例。两组患儿均采用肺表面活性物质(PS)替代治疗和机械通气治疗,对照组患儿采取生命体征动态监测联合常规护理干预,研究组患儿使用生命体征动态监测联合预案式护理,两组患儿均护理干预至出院。比较两组患儿干预前、干预7 d后动脉血氧分压(PaO_(2))、动脉血二氧化碳分压(PaCO_(2))、动脉血氧饱和度(SaO2)、儿童早期预警评分(PEWS)、Murray肺损伤评分(MLIS)的变化,并比较两组患儿机械通气时间、NICU住院时间及不良事件发生情况。结果 干预7 d后,研究组患儿PaO_(2)、SaO2水平分别为(81.63±10.23) mmHg、(96.29±3.35)%,明显高于对照组的(75.62±10.42) mmHg、(93.81±3.94)%,PaCO_(2)水平为(40.26±5.41) mm Hg,明显低于对照组的(44.18±6.75) mm Hg,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);干预7 d后,研究组患儿的PEWS、MLIS评分分别为(2.18±0.63)分、(1.52±0.44)分,明显低于对照组的(2.69±0.71)分、(1.88±0.51)分,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);研究组患儿的机械通气时间、NICU住院时间分别为(5.32±1.44) d、(10.69±1.91) d,明显短于对照组的(6.42±1.51) d、(12.47±2.72) d,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);研究组患儿的呼吸机相关性肺炎(VAP)、呼吸机所致肺损伤、肺气漏总发生率为5.00%,明显低于对照组的22.50%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 生命体征参数动态监测联合预案式护理有助于改善NRDS患儿血气分期指标、降低病情风险、缓解肺损伤程度,促进患儿早期恢复,值得临床推广应用。

区县级国土空间规划实施监测总体建设技术路径研究

规划实施监测与评估作为国土空间规划的重要环节,是对于规划能否实现宏观发展导向、既定发展目标、相关发展理论的一种实践性检验与反馈,是实现规划目标的必要保障。本文阐述了区县级国土空规划监测总体建设思路,重点阐述了时空数据治理、指标体系和监测评估预警模型体系的技术路线构建,描述了国土空间规划实施监测信息管理平台的框架组成与功能,为区县级国土空间规划实施监测网络试点建设提供参考借鉴。

考虑动静态指标的港口企业安全生产风险预警研究

港口作业货种多、作业区域广、作业类型杂,存在大量动态化立体交叉形式作业过程,现场作业各个环节紧密联接又相互制约,安全生产风险情况处于多因素关联的耦合状态,若一个环节出现安全问题,整个生产过程将受到影响。以T港口散杂企业为试点,基于港口企业的安全生产数据利用AHP-模糊评价法,从“动态+静态”的角度出发,综合评估分析港口企业的安全生产状态,使评价结果更客观,从而摸清安全管理薄弱环节,针对风险过高和趋势明显的行为和现象进行提前预警,防范安全生产事故。

蚕庄金矿岩爆自动化预警系统研究

为了研究对蚕庄金矿潜在岩爆灾害进行预警,本文分别构建了岩爆及工程地质灾害微震监测案例库、蚕庄金矿岩爆风险预警指标以及岩爆监测预警云平台,研究结果表明:①能量指数及视应力显著下降,视体积、频次及能量显著上升是最为常见的岩爆前兆现象;②结合岩爆微震监测案例库及空间聚类算法,岩爆风险预警指标为微震事件聚集区域的能量指数及视应力显著下降40%以上,视体积、频次及能量显著上升40%以上;③蚕庄金矿岩爆监测预警云平台可实现矿山微震监测数据远程传输、存储、传输与可视化查询以及岩爆风险预测预警等功能。研究成果可为类似矿山的岩爆预警提供参考依据。

新时期控制性详细规划“四位一体”动态监测预警体系构建路径探索——以泉州市为例

新时期国土空间规划体系要求建立健全规划动态监测评估预警和实施监管机制,推进国土空间治理体系和治理能力现代化。控制性详细规划在空间规划实施依据体系中具有重要作用。本文在阐述传统控规管理问题的基础上,以泉州市为例,提出了构建控制性详细规划依据体系、监测体系、预警体系和监测保障体系“四位一体”的动态监测预警思路和实现路径,以期为控规实施监督相关工作提供参考。

基于动态数据驱动的地质灾害监测预警系统设计与实现

基于地质灾害诱发因素与形成机理,针对地质灾害传统数据管理、实时监测数据处理与分析、预警模型库建设等问题,结合动态数据驱动、多源数据可视化及监测数据实时传输等技术,建立基于动态数据驱动技术的地质灾害监测自动预警方法体系,并采用阈值判别预警、过程跟踪预警以及时空信息的综合分析预警方法,充分采用服务流引擎技术与数据库技术,研制基于网络环境的新型地质灾害动态监测系统,以实现灾害信息实时查询、处理与分析、动态监测曲线的绘制及灾害自动预警等功能。以甘肃省黑方台黄土滑坡监测示范区为例,验证构建的地质灾害实时监测数据与预警模型服务流,系统能够实时反映灾害体的变形情况,并成功预警了黑方台陈家6#滑坡。

特大滑坡实时监测预警与技术装备研发

特大滑坡灾害具有体量大、隐蔽性强、突发性强、破坏性强的明显特点,一旦发生将带来严重的人民生命财产损失。实施特大滑坡监测预警对防灾减灾至关重要。与不断创新发展的国际先进技术相比,中国在特大滑坡监测预警领域存在监测装备精度低、成本高等问题,难以实现实时动态跟踪和精准监测预警。基于此,为提升我国特大滑坡灾害防灾减灾水平,在“十三五”国家重点研发计划“特大滑坡实时监测预警与技术装备研发”专项的支持下,项目组突破了滑坡动态跟踪、实时监测、精准预警等关键核心技术,研发了低成本、大视场、智能化、高精度的滑坡实时监测装备,构建了多传感集成的滑坡实时监测预警系统,成功预警多起滑坡事件,实现人员零伤亡和财产零损失,显著提升了中国滑坡灾害防灾减灾水平。